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中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250714
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 09:07
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short - term, and lay out short positions in the medium - term [1][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short - term [10][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short - term [14][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. For rebar, production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, and total inventory has slightly decreased. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have slightly declined month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: On the fundamental side, the demand - side hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply - side shipping rush is over, but arrivals are still increasing. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Short - term market sentiment has improved [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved [1][16]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost loosening. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, the cost line has moved down, factory inventory is relatively high, and the difficulty of de - stocking has increased [1][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - **Price Range**: [3110, 3150] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current trading logic has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic. The market is bullish under the background of basis repair [1][5]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Range**: [3250, 3290] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas. The market is bullish under sentiment and expectation trading [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Range**: [750, 780] [1] - **Market Situation**: Short - term participation within the range, and medium - term short - position layout [1][9] 3.3 Coke - **Price Range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term, with the market oscillating strongly [1][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Range**: [910, 935] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term [1][17] 3.5 Ferroalloys 3.5.1 Ferromanganese - **Price Range**: [5650, 5840] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][20] 3.5.2 Ferrosilicon - **Price Range**: [5365, 5555] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within the range [1][20]
中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250711
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 09:14
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and short in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [10][12][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short term [14][16][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations in the short term [18][19][20] Core Views - The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. The trading logic has shifted from industrial fundamentals to macro - sentiment and policy expectations [1][4][5] - For iron ore, the anti - involution policy has limited impact on the black industry, with short - term emotional trading [1][8][9] - Coke's fundamentals remain relatively stable, with short - term market sentiment improving [12][13] - Coking coal supply is expected to increase later, but short - term market sentiment is positive [16][17] - Ferroalloys' short - term prices are dominated by market sentiment, with potential for price increases due to cost factors [19][20] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory decreased slightly, and it shows obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production dropped below 2.4 million tons but remained at a high level [1][4] - Market: The trading logic has shifted, and the market is bullish under the background of basis repair, with a price range of [3120, 3160] [1][5] Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market: Driven by strong macro - sentiment and some regional production restriction news, it is bullish, with a price range of [3260, 3300] [1][5] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: Hot metal production is expected to decline slowly. Supply shipments have ended, but arrivals are increasing. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral [1][8] - Market: Short - term emotional trading is strong. Participate within the range in the short term and short in the medium term, with a price range of [750, 780] [1][8][9] Coke - Supply - demand: Independent coking enterprise production has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise production remains high. Hot metal production is at a high level, ensuring raw material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level [1][12] - Market: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic production has been stable recently, lower than the same period last year. Some shut - down mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month but remained high, and spot trading has improved [1][16] - Market: Market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish in the short term, with a price range of [890, 920] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased last week, but inventory pressure is still obvious. The cost of ore provides strong support at the bottom. Although hot metal production is high, actual demand may decline in the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations. Pay attention to the 6000 yuan/ton mark, with a price range of [5710 - 5905] [1][19][20] Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased, and the cost provides weak support. Prices may rise in the coal consumption peak season from July to August, but factory inventory is high, and it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [5480 - 5670] [1][19][20]