1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc price will undergo a strong adjustment. It suggests paying attention to the support at MA10 and the resistance at the 24,000 yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 1.29% and an amplitude of 3.48%. The closing price of the main contract was 23,605 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the Central Economic Work Conference indicated a continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore decreased, and domestic smelters' profits shrank, leading to an expected decline in production. Overseas supply remained tight, and China is expected to turn into a net - exporter. Demand - side is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector being a drag, while the automotive sector shows some bright spots. Technically, the price rose with increasing volume and positions, and the bullish sentiment improved [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 23,605 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (1.29%) from December 5. As of December 11, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,198 US dollars/ton, up 113 US dollars/ton (3.66%) from December 5. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased [10]. - **Net Position and Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 20,665 lots, a decrease of 3,783 lots from December 5. The open interest was 219,693 lots, an increase of 11,633 lots (5.59%) from December 5 [16]. - **Price Spreads**: As of December 12, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,435 yuan/ton, an increase of 475 yuan/ton from December 5. The lead - zinc futures spread was 6,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 465 yuan/ton from December 5 [19]. - **Spot Premium**: As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 23,730 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton (2.42%) from December 5. The spot premium was 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 11, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was 172.81 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 69.85 US dollars/ton from December 4 [23]. - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 60,350 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons (11.09%) from December 4. As of December 12, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 80,577 tons, a decrease of 11,339 tons (12.34%) from last week. As of December 11, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons (2.84%) from December 4 [27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In September 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. In October 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 340,863.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.48% and a year - on - year increase of 3.28% [33][34]. - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 85,800 tons (7.73%); the consumption was 1.1749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,900 tons (1.2%); there was a surplus of 20,300 tons, compared with a deficit of 51,600 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed a supply - demand balance of - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [38][39]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Production**: In October 2025, the zinc production was 665,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 6.184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [43]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Export**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,836.76 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%; the export volume was 8,518.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3824.82% [46]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheet**: From January to October 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 942,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.8%. In October 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 23,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.74%; the export volume was 328,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.57% [49][50]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.885278 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%; personal mortgage loans were 1.083366 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55][56]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: From January to October 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [62]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative refrigerator output was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In October 2025, the air - conditioner output was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3% [64]. - **Downstream - Automobile**: In November 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 3,429,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the production volume was 3,532,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.78% [68].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes reflect a stubborn hawkish stance, emphasizing economic resilience and the potential inflationary impact of tariffs, despite signs of economic slowdown [1] - The minutes set the tone for Powell's upcoming speech, suggesting a neutral to hawkish approach with flexibility, as the market anticipates clearer direction from the Jackson Hole meeting [2] - Following the release of the minutes, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, indicating a market in a state of indecision, with the ten-year yield hovering around 4.3% [2] Group 2 - In contrast to the U.S., the UK bond market saw yields rise despite higher-than-expected CPI, as investors bet on peak inflation, with a significant yield advantage over U.S. Treasuries [3] - The upcoming UK budget announcement and potential faster quantitative tightening by the Bank of England could introduce market volatility, although a slowing job market may open up room for rate cuts next year [4] - Eurozone interest rates are on a slow upward trend due to improving macroeconomic conditions, with reduced expectations for ECB rate cuts, supported by potential fiscal stimulus in Germany [4]