瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 沪锌市场周报 宏观改善炼厂减产 预计锌价强势调整 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力大幅上涨，周线涨跌幅为+1.29%，振幅3.48%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价23605 元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等 多种政策工具，着力稳定房地产市场，积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，深入实施提振消费专项行动，清 理消费领域不合理限制措施。基本面，上游锌矿进口量下滑，因内外比价继续走差，中国进口锌精矿亏损 扩大；国内炼厂原料冬季储备已经启动，更倾向采购国产锌精矿，不过炼厂采购国产矿竞争加大，国内外 加工费均明显下跌，国内炼厂利润收缩，预计产量将明显下降。同时海外供应紧张局面持续，近期沪伦比 值维持低位，国内进口亏损，且出口窗口保持打开，预计未来将转为净出口局面，缓解国内供应压力。需 ...

消息面 国投安信期货： 截至本周四（12月4日），SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.03万吨，较11月27日减少0.77万吨，较12月1日 减少0.40万吨，国内库存减少。 国内炼厂减产预期强，海外炼厂4季度提产预期平平，锌锭供应端约束走强，支撑盘面冲高上行。美就 业数据疲弱，12月美联储降息预期强，有色和贵金属板块资金多头情绪依旧高亢，锌不做空头配置。锌 锭出口窗口打开，沪锌有望上探年线，且不排除突破年线继续上行可能。 机构观点 正信期货： 总之，供增需稳之下锌供需平衡有过剩倾向，但过剩预期的实现还有待矿端向冶炼端的进一步传导，产 业链内部调整需要一段时间，其中最关键的一个指标是进口矿冶炼利润和沪伦比能否明显回升。策略方 面，中线锌价或难有流畅的下跌趋势，期货建议关注背靠区间上沿，逢高沽空的波段策略，期权可考虑 卖出23000挡位附近的看涨期权。 12月4日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：锌注册仓单49250吨。注销仓单5075吨，持平。锌库存54325吨， 增加1875吨。 12月4日，沪锌前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓13.88万手，空单持仓11.65万手，多空比 1.19。净持仓为2.22万手，相 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Core View - With fundamental support, copper prices should mainly be bought on dips [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper fluctuated downward, with total positions decreasing and the near - month spread turning to back. The sentiment became more cautious. A - share continuous decline and the upcoming US non - farm payroll data pressured copper prices [10] - Spot copper dropped 330 to 80190, and the premium fell 10 to 180. Imported copper arrivals suppressed the premium. Social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons this week, mainly due to a 1.02 - million - ton increase in Shanghai caused by large - scale imported arrivals [10] - As the LME 0 - 3 contango structure narrowed, spot imports turned to a small loss of 50 yuan/ton, but the premiums for warehouse receipts and bills of lading continued to rise to 57 and 60 US dollars/ton respectively, indicating strong demand for imported copper [10] - LME inventory decreased by 200 tons, showing an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in overseas inventory. The expected centralized production cuts by smelters in September have not been reflected in domestic social inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory destocking progress [10] 3.2 Industry News - Freeport - McMoRan is advancing three expansion projects (two in the US and one in Chile) and researching a technological innovation to boost annual production. It plans to invest $3.5 billion to expand a copper mine in Arizona, aiming to double the concentrator's capacity and increase copper and molybdenum production. The project is expected to make an investment decision by the end of 2025 and start production in 2029. It may also increase the capacity of the Lone Star copper mine in Arizona and the El Abra mine in Chile [11] - In September, China's refined copper market saw a rare supply contraction. Multiple research institutions predicted a 4% - 5% month - on - month decline in China's refined copper production this month, the first decline in September since 2016. The new tax policy reduced scrap copper processing profits, weakening the incentive to smelt scrap copper into anode copper. Additionally, smelters entered the peak equipment maintenance period in September, with the number of shut - down smelters increasing from three to five. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to drop by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9%, magnifying the supply contraction effect. This production cut coincides with the peak copper consumption season [11][12]