1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc price will undergo a strong adjustment. It suggests paying attention to the support at MA10 and the resistance at the 24,000 yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 1.29% and an amplitude of 3.48%. The closing price of the main contract was 23,605 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the Central Economic Work Conference indicated a continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore decreased, and domestic smelters' profits shrank, leading to an expected decline in production. Overseas supply remained tight, and China is expected to turn into a net - exporter. Demand - side is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector being a drag, while the automotive sector shows some bright spots. Technically, the price rose with increasing volume and positions, and the bullish sentiment improved [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 23,605 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (1.29%) from December 5. As of December 11, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,198 US dollars/ton, up 113 US dollars/ton (3.66%) from December 5. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased [10]. - **Net Position and Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 20,665 lots, a decrease of 3,783 lots from December 5. The open interest was 219,693 lots, an increase of 11,633 lots (5.59%) from December 5 [16]. - **Price Spreads**: As of December 12, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,435 yuan/ton, an increase of 475 yuan/ton from December 5. The lead - zinc futures spread was 6,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 465 yuan/ton from December 5 [19]. - **Spot Premium**: As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 23,730 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton (2.42%) from December 5. The spot premium was 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 11, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was 172.81 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 69.85 US dollars/ton from December 4 [23]. - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 60,350 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons (11.09%) from December 4. As of December 12, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 80,577 tons, a decrease of 11,339 tons (12.34%) from last week. As of December 11, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons (2.84%) from December 4 [27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In September 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. In October 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 340,863.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.48% and a year - on - year increase of 3.28% [33][34]. - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 85,800 tons (7.73%); the consumption was 1.1749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,900 tons (1.2%); there was a surplus of 20,300 tons, compared with a deficit of 51,600 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed a supply - demand balance of - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [38][39]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Production**: In October 2025, the zinc production was 665,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 6.184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [43]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Export**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,836.76 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%; the export volume was 8,518.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3824.82% [46]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheet**: From January to October 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 942,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.8%. In October 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 23,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.74%; the export volume was 328,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.57% [49][50]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.885278 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%; personal mortgage loans were 1.083366 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55][56]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: From January to October 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [62]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative refrigerator output was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In October 2025, the air - conditioner output was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3% [64]. - **Downstream - Automobile**: In November 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 3,429,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the production volume was 3,532,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.78% [68].

Market Overview - As of December 4, SMM zinc ingot inventory totaled 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons from November 27 and a decrease of 4,000 tons from December 1, indicating a reduction in domestic inventory [1] - On December 4, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants of 49,250 tons, with canceled warrants at 5,075 tons, remaining unchanged. Total zinc inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 54,325 tons [1] - The top 20 futures companies for Shanghai zinc had a total long position of 138,800 contracts and a short position of 116,500 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.19. The net position increased by 2,417 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures indicated that under the conditions of supply increase and stable demand, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market. However, the realization of this oversupply expectation depends on the further transmission from the mining sector to the smelting sector, which requires time for internal adjustments within the industry chain. A key indicator to watch is whether the import mineral smelting profit and the Shanghai-London price ratio can significantly recover. The strategy suggests focusing on short-selling at the upper range of the price interval [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted strong expectations for domestic smelter production cuts, while overseas smelter production expectations for Q4 remain moderate. The constraints on zinc ingot supply are strengthening, supporting price increases. Weak U.S. employment data and strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December maintain bullish sentiment in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, advising against short positions in zinc. The export window for zinc ingots has opened, and Shanghai zinc is expected to test the annual line, with the possibility of breaking through and continuing to rise [3]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Core View - With fundamental support, copper prices should mainly be bought on dips [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper fluctuated downward, with total positions decreasing and the near - month spread turning to back. The sentiment became more cautious. A - share continuous decline and the upcoming US non - farm payroll data pressured copper prices [10] - Spot copper dropped 330 to 80190, and the premium fell 10 to 180. Imported copper arrivals suppressed the premium. Social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons this week, mainly due to a 1.02 - million - ton increase in Shanghai caused by large - scale imported arrivals [10] - As the LME 0 - 3 contango structure narrowed, spot imports turned to a small loss of 50 yuan/ton, but the premiums for warehouse receipts and bills of lading continued to rise to 57 and 60 US dollars/ton respectively, indicating strong demand for imported copper [10] - LME inventory decreased by 200 tons, showing an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in overseas inventory. The expected centralized production cuts by smelters in September have not been reflected in domestic social inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory destocking progress [10] 3.2 Industry News - Freeport - McMoRan is advancing three expansion projects (two in the US and one in Chile) and researching a technological innovation to boost annual production. It plans to invest $3.5 billion to expand a copper mine in Arizona, aiming to double the concentrator's capacity and increase copper and molybdenum production. The project is expected to make an investment decision by the end of 2025 and start production in 2029. It may also increase the capacity of the Lone Star copper mine in Arizona and the El Abra mine in Chile [11] - In September, China's refined copper market saw a rare supply contraction. Multiple research institutions predicted a 4% - 5% month - on - month decline in China's refined copper production this month, the first decline in September since 2016. The new tax policy reduced scrap copper processing profits, weakening the incentive to smelt scrap copper into anode copper. Additionally, smelters entered the peak equipment maintenance period in September, with the number of shut - down smelters increasing from three to five. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to drop by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9%, magnifying the supply contraction effect. This production cut coincides with the peak copper consumption season [11][12]