Report Overview - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and alloy trading has returned to fundamentals. The "anti - involution" theme has lost steam. With potential weakening alloy demand due to factors like reduced iron - water production and expected impacts on steel production rhythm, alloy prices may face pressure if supply continues to expand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Situation - **Price Movement**: This week, alloy prices showed a volatile and weak trend. On Wednesday, the futures market was affected by meeting content, and the cooling of the anti - involution theme reversed the alloy price trend. Macro factors included the cooling of the "anti - involution" theme, emphasis on policy implementation in the Politburo meeting, and the Fed maintaining interest rates. Microscopically, iron - water production decreased, which may lead to weaker alloy demand [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: The silicon ferrosilicon 2509 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,682 yuan/ton, down 484 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 3,455,999 contracts traded and 155,097 contracts held (a decrease of 57,709 contracts). The manganese silicon 2509 contract was relatively strong, closing at 5,962 yuan/ton, down 452 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 3,879,980 contracts traded and 271,263 contracts held (a decrease of 115,769 contracts) [8]. - **Spot Prices**: National silicon ferrosilicon spot prices fluctuated, with 75B silicon ferrosilicon in major production areas quoted at 5450 - 5700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 50 - 50 yuan/ton. National silicon manganese spot prices were in the range of 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of - 110 - 100 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Silicon Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's silicon ferrosilicon production was 10.45 tons, a 2.0% week - on - week increase. The weekly operating rate was 33.76%, up 0.43 percentage points from last week. Ningxia contributed 83.9% to the production increase [19][20]. - **Demand**: - **Steel Procurement**: Steel procurement continued to enter the market, but the price increase space was limited. For example, Yunnan Qujing Chenggang and Shandong Iron and Steel Rizhao Company increased their procurement prices [27]. - **Downstream Demand**: Iron - water production decreased. Non - steel demand also weakened, with stainless - steel production, metal magnesium production, and silicon ferrosilicon exports all showing declines [33][39]. - **Inventory**: - Sample enterprise inventory reached 65,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,460 tons. - Silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts numbered 22,042, a decrease of 82, with a corresponding inventory reduction of 410 tons. - In July, the average available days of steel mill silicon ferrosilicon inventory decreased [43]. - **Profit**: Due to rising raw material costs, silicon ferrosilicon profits shrank along with the futures price. The weekly futures profit was 375 yuan/ton, a 60.02% week - on - week decrease, and the spot profit was 243 yuan/ton, a 10.66% week - on - week decrease [4][53]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's manganese silicon production was 19.08 tons, a 2.3% week - on - week increase. The weekly operating rate was 42.18%, up 0.6 percentage points from last week. Ningxia contributed 80.6% to the production increase [57][58]. - **Raw Materials**: Overseas manganese ore suppliers raised their quotes, and Tianjin Port's manganese ore prices showed a slight increase. The global manganese ore shipment volume increased, and recent arrivals at ports also increased, but the demand release rate at Tianjin Port slowed down [63][67]. - **Demand**: - **Steel Procurement**: Steel procurement was concentrated, and the procurement price was around 6000 yuan/ton [72]. - **Downstream Demand**: Iron - water production decreased, and the overall demand support for manganese silicon may weaken marginally [78]. - **Inventory**: - Sample enterprise inventory was 164,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,000 tons. - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts numbered 77,854, an increase of 198, with a corresponding inventory increase of 990 tons. - In July, the average available days of steel mill manganese silicon inventory decreased [83][87]. - **Profit**: With relatively stable cost support, manganese silicon profits shrank along with price declines [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, both internal and external environments changed. Internally, the "anti - involution" theme cooled, and the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation. Upstream resources retreated, with coal and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Externally, the third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed remained unchanged but had increasing differences on interest rate cuts. Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] 3. Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - Internal changes: The "anti - involution" theme cooled, the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation, and upstream resources retreated [2] - External changes: The third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed had increasing differences on interest rate cuts [2] - Market performance: Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model predicts that next week, the basis of IH and IM will weaken, while the basis of IF and IC will strengthen [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - There are graphical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but specific conclusions are not explicitly summarized from the graphical content [4][5]