Global Asset Price Performance - Global commodity prices have declined, with major stock markets showing mixed results; the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 3% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets mostly increased, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining stable compared to last week [2] - Oil prices decreased, with WTI and Brent crude oil falling by 1.9% and 2.5% respectively, while London gold prices dropped by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing divisions regarding interest rate cuts, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting key inflation data; some officials advocate for a cautious approach while others see inflation as a more pressing concern [5] - The European Central Bank announced that Bulgaria will adopt the euro on January 1, 2026, with the central bank governor gaining voting rights on the governing council [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could lead to the potential reversal of $100 billion in tariff revenue [9] - Recent local elections indicate a resurgence for the Democratic Party, with victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City [9] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined to 50.3, close to historical lows, due to the ongoing government shutdown and its negative impacts [10] - The liquidity situation in the U.S. is tightening, with the SOFR rate spiking to 4.22% and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction potentially exacerbating the funding shortage [10] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization with an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, although layoffs in certain sectors remain a concern [11] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.1% in September, driven by weak demand for fuel and non-food items, while food and beverage sales remained stable [18] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI held steady at 50%, indicating slight recovery, but new export orders and employment levels continue to decline [18]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant downturn on November 6, with all three major indices declining sharply. The Nasdaq fell by 1.9% to close at 23053.99, with an intraday drop exceeding 2%. The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.12%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a smaller decline of 0.84. The VIX fear index surged over 8%, indicating rising market anxiety [1][2]. Technology Sector Impact - The technology sector was notably affected, with major tech stocks facing substantial losses. AMD dropped over 7%, while Nvidia, Tesla, and Qualcomm fell by more than 3%. Amazon, Meta, and Oracle saw declines exceeding 2%, and Microsoft and TSMC ADRs decreased by over 1%. Apple and Broadcom also experienced slight declines. The AI sector was particularly hard hit, with related stocks generally declining, reflecting concerns over high valuations in the tech space. Duolingo's stock plummeted over 25%, marking its largest single-day drop ever, primarily due to disappointing earnings guidance and a focus on "user growth" rather than short-term monetization. This turmoil in the AI sector was exacerbated by misinterpretations of comments made by OpenAI executives regarding support for chip investments [4]. Employment Market Concerns - The deterioration of the U.S. employment market has further dampened market sentiment. In October, U.S. companies laid off a total of 153,074 employees, driven mainly by the tech and warehousing sectors, marking an increase of 183% from September and nearly three times the number from the same month last year, reaching the highest level for October since 2022. Additionally, October saw a decrease of 9,100 in non-farm employment, contrasting with a gain of 33,000 in September, raising widespread concerns about the labor market's weakness [5][6]. Federal Reserve Divergence - Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut outlook is a core reason for the recent stock market decline. Several officials have expressed significant divergence on the path to rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who previously advocated for gradual cuts, has recently adopted a cautious stance due to missing key inflation data and a recent uptick in overall inflation. Cleveland Fed President Mester has taken a more hawkish view, emphasizing that inflation is a more pressing concern than labor market weakness and suggesting that current rates are "almost non-restrictive." New York Fed President Williams indicated that the low-rate environment persists, with neutral rates estimated around 1%. The differing views among Fed officials add considerable uncertainty to the December FOMC meeting regarding the continuation of rate cuts [7][8].

Key Points of the Research Report Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations of various commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products, with expectations of price trends such as oscillation, weakening, or strengthening based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][4] Summary by Commodity Metals - **螺纹钢 (Rebar)**: Fundamentals continue to improve, but inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. After a short - term macro sentiment cools, the futures price is expected to be under pressure. However, there is cost support and potential policy benefits, so there is a rebound drive after a weak adjustment [1] - **黄金 (Gold)**: There are differences in the Fed's decision on another interest rate cut, increasing market volatility. Although the US government shutdown has reduced the risk - aversion sentiment, the buying power of gold remains strong. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - **焦煤 (Coking Coal)**: Supply is affected by frequent inspections, mine production cuts, and other factors, with limited increase. Demand remains stable, and the upstream coal mines have reduced their inventories to a low level in recent years. The coking coal spot market is stable and slightly strong, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - **铁矿石 (Iron Ore)**: Supply has short - term disturbances, and demand has decreased significantly due to environmental protection and profit factors. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not obvious. After the macro factors are realized, the market may turn to fundamental trading, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **白银 (Silver)**: Positive information from China - US talks and the better - than - expected economic recovery in the Eurozone have increased risk appetite and boosted silver. It is expected to oscillate upwards with limited downside space [7] Agricultural Products - **生猪 (Live Pigs)**: In early November, the market supply of pigs is becoming more abundant, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened. Terminal consumption has not been significantly boosted. The price of live pigs is expected to decline slowly, and the main contract LH2601 is under short - term downward pressure [5] - **菜粕 (Rapeseed Meal)**: Supply is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. The domestic rapeseed crushing has basically stagnated, and the oil mill operating rate is low. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6] - **棕榈油 (Palm Oil)**: Affected by rapeseed oil, the futures price has broken through the previous low. Although domestic spot demand has been released, terminal consumption has not improved, and future arrivals are expected to be large. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] Energy - **原油 (Crude Oil)**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in December, and the market will be under pressure for the rest of the year. The oversupply pressure will be slightly relieved in the first quarter of next year. It should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [11] - **沥青 (Bitumen)**: The capacity utilization rate has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the peak - season demand is not strong, increasing the downward pressure. The overall trend is weak - oscillation [12] Financial Products - **长期国债 (Long - term Treasury Bonds)**: The PMI data shows increased economic downward pressure, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be intensified. The open - market trading of treasury bonds is likely to lower interest rates, which is a positive factor for the bond market. Due to liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **甲醇 (Methanol)**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories fluctuate slightly. The inland market is weak, and the port basis is weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2210 [8] - **纯碱 (Soda Ash)**: The float glass industry is stable with decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high - level supply and low - level demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1240 [9] - **聚丙烯 (Polypropylene)**: Supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to concentrated equipment maintenance, and commercial inventories have decreased. Demand has slightly increased, but the market trading atmosphere has slowed down. The cost support is strong. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6620 [10] Rubber - **橡胶 (Rubber)**: In November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in capacity utilization. However, China's rubber inventories have continued to decline, providing medium - term support. The downward space of rubber prices may be limited [13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint There is a concern about tariffs again, leading to a correction in Shanghai copper prices, but the expected depth of the decline is limited [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - The Shanghai copper market rallied after the holiday, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened on a weekly basis [11] Fundamental Data - On October 10, the spot TC for copper concentrates was about -$40.7/ton, still at a low level [15] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened [20] - China's electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [22] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [24] - After the holiday, both the spot inventory and bonded area inventory of electrolytic copper increased [25] - LME copper inventory decreased on a weekly basis, while COMEX copper inventory increased on a weekly basis [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased significantly on a weekly basis this week, as the post - holiday copper price rally suppressed consumption and dragged down the operating rate [28] - From September 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 16% year - on - year [31] - The planned production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [32] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual figure of the same period last year [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, rebounding for the second consecutive month [37] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service PMI significantly missed expectations [39] - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report tracks the fundamentals of zinc, showing various price, volume, and inventory data, and mentions news about the Fed's stance on interest - rate cuts and the resulting limited information for economic assessment [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Zinc Market Data - **Price Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,825 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,042 dollars/ton, up 1.25%. The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil (tax - included) was 4,250 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,455 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; zinc oxide (≥99.7%) was 21,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 162,377 lots, down 18,168 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 13,813 lots, up 4,405 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 127,778 lots, down 14,622 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 224,342 lots, up 1,685 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount Data**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; Guangdong 0 zinc premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin 0 zinc premium was - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. LME CASH - 3M premium was 67.56 dollars/ton, up 17.56 dollars/ton; import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory Data**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 57,221 tons, down 2,043 tons; LME zinc inventory was 38,200 tons, down 1,150 tons. LME zinc cancelled warrants were 10,325 tons, down 1,000 tons; LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 10,645 tons, down 204 tons [1] - **Import Profit and Loss Data**: The spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 3,178.54 yuan/ton, down 167.49 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE zinc continuous third contract was - 2,589.37 yuan/ton, down 90.93 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - According to the Fed minutes, most officials believe it may be appropriate to continue easing this year, while a few could have supported not cutting rates in September. The "New Fed Wire" reported that Fed officials were divided on the rate - cut magnitude, and the government shutdown has led to delayed economic data release, limiting the Fed's information for economic assessment [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend intensity is in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2][3]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since the pause in rate cuts began this year[3] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[3] - The downward revision of May and June non-farm payrolls totaled 258,000, indicating a weakening labor market[3] Market Performance - Global equity markets experienced a downturn, with the S&P 500 closing at 6238.01, down 2.36% for the week[8] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17 basis points to 4.23%, while the U.S. dollar index remained below 100, indicating a continued weak dollar environment[3][9] - The A-share index saw a majority decline, with the Hang Seng Tech index leading the losses, while only the Argentine index showed slight gains among emerging markets[3][8] Capital Flows - Significant capital inflows were observed in U.S. and European equity markets, while Chinese markets experienced substantial outflows, with domestic investors withdrawing $3.085 billion and foreign investors adding $882 million[3][14] - Over the past week, overseas active funds withdrew $285 million from Chinese markets, while passive funds saw inflows of $1.167 billion[3][14] Valuation Metrics - The ERP for the CSI 300 index rose to 64%, indicating a slight improvement in valuation compared to historical levels[3][12] - The risk-adjusted returns for the CSI 300 increased from 71% to 79%, while the S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns remained stable at 48%[3] Risk Sentiment - Despite significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market, retail investor sentiment remains optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio from 1.13 to 1.00[3] - In the A-share market, over 50% of stocks are trading below their 30-day moving average, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards caution[3] Economic Data - The U.S. manufacturing PMI showed marginal weakness, while new orders PMI remained below the expansion threshold[3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased to 80.3%, with a 58.4% chance of a further cut to 3.75%-4.00% in October[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, both internal and external environments changed. Internally, the "anti - involution" theme cooled, and the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation. Upstream resources retreated, with coal and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Externally, the third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed remained unchanged but had increasing differences on interest rate cuts. Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] 3. Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - Internal changes: The "anti - involution" theme cooled, the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation, and upstream resources retreated [2] - External changes: The third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed had increasing differences on interest rate cuts [2] - Market performance: Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model predicts that next week, the basis of IH and IM will weaken, while the basis of IF and IC will strengthen [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - There are graphical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but specific conclusions are not explicitly summarized from the graphical content [4][5]

Group 1 - Global stock markets continue to rise, with US and European index futures increasing, driven by strong retail sales growth in June, alleviating concerns about the US economy's health [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures both rose by 0.2%, following record closing highs for both indices [1] - European futures increased by 0.4%, while Asian markets also saw a rise of 0.4% [1] Group 2 - Positive economic indicators are boosting market optimism, with investors confident about upcoming Q2 earnings reports from US companies [2] - Chris Zaccarelli from Northlight Asset Management noted that as long as the economy continues to expand and unemployment remains low, consumer spending will drive higher profits, fueling stock price increases [2] - There are differing opinions within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for immediate action to support a weakening labor market [2] Group 3 - The US dollar is under pressure but has narrowed its decline against most G10 currencies following comments about potential interest rate cuts [3] - The Euro increased by 0.2% to 1.1618 USD, while the Japanese Yen fell by 0.1% to 148.75 USD [3] - Bitcoin rose by 0.9% to 120,522.73 USD after the US Congress passed the first federal legislation regulating stablecoins [3][6]