"大宏观"视角下2026年宏观政策建议 在"十四五"规划圆满收官、"十五五"蓝图蓄势启幕的关键之年，2025年我国经济展现出强大韧性与发展 活力。面对世界经济复苏动力不足，地缘政治冲突多点频发，国际经贸规则体系深刻调整，全球产业链 供应链加速重构的复杂环境，我国国民经济运行稳中有进。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，我国经 济发展仍处于重要战略机遇期，同时也面临诸多风险挑战。要立足"大宏观"视角，通过强化稳定政策、 增长政策、结构政策之间的协调配合，进一步增强宏观政策取向一致性，提高宏观政策有效性，为推动 经济持续回升向好提供更有力的政策保障。 2025年宏观经济稳中有进 2025年，我国经济持续运行在合理区间，实现了总体平稳、稳中有进的良好态势。同时，重点领域和关 键环节改革开放迈出坚实步伐，风险防范化解工作成效显著，社会大局保持和谐稳定。 第一，经济增长速度在全球主要经济体中保持领先。2025年前三季度我国国内生产总值（GDP）增速为 5.2%，与潜在增速基本匹配，产出缺口趋近于零，相较于2024年的-0.3%明显收窄，国民经济运行稳中 有进。从全球横向对比看，中国经济增速在全球主要经济体中继续处于领 ...

Core Insights - The speech by Professor Chen Yanbin highlights the significant achievements of China's industrial development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the enhanced role of industry as an economic stabilizer, the improvement of the modern industrial system, the increase in innovation momentum, and the strengthened resilience of industrial development [1] Group 1: Achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The industrial sector has demonstrated a more pronounced stabilizing function for the economy [1] - The modern industrial system has become more comprehensive and refined [1] - There has been a notable increase in industrial innovation capabilities [1] - The resilience of industrial development has been significantly strengthened [1] Group 2: Importance and Focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The high-quality development of China's industrial economy is crucial and requires a broader macroeconomic perspective [1] - It is essential to provide a vast demand market alongside improving industrial supply scale and quality [1] - The key to achieving high-quality industrial development lies in enhancing the macroeconomic governance system and coordinating stability, growth, and structural policies to create a virtuous cycle of demand driving supply and supply creating demand [1]