新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 板块集体回调，镍不锈钢价格大幅回撤 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-02日沪镍主力合约2603开于138000元/吨，收于129650元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-11.00%，当日成交量 为808140（-204303）手，持仓量为110945（-21503）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约以跌停收盘，核心驱动是宏观紧缩预期升温、外盘大跌传导与产业高库存共振，叠 加多头恐慌性平仓，技术面破位加剧抛压。宏观方面，特朗普提名沃什任美联储新掌门，鹰派预期升温，美元走 强、美债收益率回升，大宗商品全线下挫，沪镍受系统性风险冲击。伦镍大跌形成外盘负向传导，加剧内盘抛压。 此外，国内精炼镍库存连续三周累库，供应宽松而下游节前备货意愿不足，高库存压制价格。精炼镍对镍铁溢价 偏高，镍铁转产高冰镍增加，进一步冲击现货市场。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，菲律宾方面，受上周北方矿山高价成交的坚实支撑，贸易商挺价意愿坚决，国内CIF 价格议价重心被迫上移。1.3%品位镍矿价格上涨至48美元/湿吨，1.5%品位价格区间也上探至59-62美元，表明市场 正在逐步消化极端成本。印尼 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing a significant decline due to a combination of high inventory levels, weak demand, and macroeconomic pressures, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 19, the Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract close at 142,320 CNY/ton, down 2,050 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.42% [1]. - The average price for 1 nickel in the Changjiang market was reported at 146,400 CNY/ton, down 2,100 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and strong economic data have dampened expectations for early interest rate cuts, maintaining a high USD index that pressures commodity prices, including nickel [2]. - Structural monetary policies in China have been implemented, but their impact on real demand is delayed, particularly during the traditional off-season [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is facing a significant contradiction between high inventory levels and weak demand, with global visible inventories at high levels indicating a loose supply situation [3]. - The traditional stainless steel sector, which constitutes a major part of nickel consumption, is currently in a seasonal downturn, leading to low purchasing willingness for high-cost raw materials [3]. Group 4: Industry Chain and Market Sentiment - Profit distribution within the industry is shifting towards upstream resource sectors, while downstream sectors face pressure from high costs and weak orders, resulting in a narrow profit margin [4]. - The market is characterized by low trading activity and declining premiums, as traders are eager to sell while downstream buyers only engage in essential purchases [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to remain weak in the short term as the market seeks to digest high inventory pressures and await clear signs of demand recovery [5]. - Despite the current price adjustments, the long-term fundamentals remain intact, supported by the ongoing supply contraction from Indonesia and structural demand growth from the energy transition [5].