新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 板块集体回调，镍不锈钢价格大幅回撤 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-02日沪镍主力合约2603开于138000元/吨，收于129650元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-11.00%，当日成交量 为808140（-204303）手，持仓量为110945（-21503）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约以跌停收盘，核心驱动是宏观紧缩预期升温、外盘大跌传导与产业高库存共振，叠 加多头恐慌性平仓，技术面破位加剧抛压。宏观方面，特朗普提名沃什任美联储新掌门，鹰派预期升温，美元走 强、美债收益率回升，大宗商品全线下挫，沪镍受系统性风险冲击。伦镍大跌形成外盘负向传导，加剧内盘抛压。 此外，国内精炼镍库存连续三周累库，供应宽松而下游节前备货意愿不足，高库存压制价格。精炼镍对镍铁溢价 偏高，镍铁转产高冰镍增加，进一步冲击现货市场。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，菲律宾方面，受上周北方矿山高价成交的坚实支撑，贸易商挺价意愿坚决，国内CIF 价格议价重心被迫上移。1.3%品位镍矿价格上涨至48美元/湿吨，1.5%品位价格区间也上探至59-62美元，表明市场 正在逐步消化极端成本。印尼 ...

Report Information - Report Date: January 9, 2026 [1] - Report Title: "Silicon Ferrosilicon: Long-Short Disk Game, Beware of Position Risks; Manganese Silico-Manganese: Long-Short Disk Game, Beware of Position Risks" [1] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico-manganese markets are experiencing a long-short disk game, and investors should be vigilant about position risks [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of silicon ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton; the price of manganese silico - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 43 yuan/ton degree; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Differences**: The spot - 03 futures price difference of silicon ferrosilicon is - 318 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan/ton; that of manganese silico - manganese is - 142 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton. The 2603 - 2605 near - far month price difference of silicon ferrosilicon is 18 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of manganese silico - manganese is - 28 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The 2603 cross - variety price difference between manganese silico - manganese and silicon ferrosilicon is 224 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton; the 2605 cross - variety price difference is 270 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [2] 2. Futures Data - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Futures**: The closing price of silicon ferrosilicon 2603 is 5668 yuan/ton, down 192 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 276,442 and an open interest of 233,414; the closing price of silicon ferrosilicon 2605 is 5650 yuan/ton, down 182 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,835 and an open interest of 64,230 [3] - **Manganese Silico - Manganese Futures**: The closing price of manganese silico - manganese 2603 is 5892 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 275,888 and an open interest of 264,806; the closing price of manganese silico - manganese 2605 is 5920 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 188,383 and an open interest of 250,192 [3] 3. Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese Prices**: On January 8, the price of 72 silicon ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton (+50), in Ningxia was 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton (+50), in Qinghai was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton (+100), in Gansu was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton (+50), and in Inner Mongolia was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton (+50). The price of 75 silicon ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferrosilicon was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 manganese silico - manganese was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - **Brazilian Manganese Ore Exports**: In December 2025, the export volume of Brazilian manganese ore was 55,851 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 73.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.96%. The export volume to China was 51,224 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 74.99% from 204,807 tons in the previous month, accounting for 91.7% of the total export volume, with a unit FOB price of 91.56 dollars/ton. The total export volume of Brazilian manganese ore in 2025 was 1.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.9%, but still at a low level compared to exports before 2021 due to unfavorable market conditions, strict export regulations, and high operating costs [3][4] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferrosilicon is 0, and that of manganese silico - manganese is 0 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures price was driven by funds and sentiment, with the main contract 2605 opening at 125,000 yuan/ton and closing at 129,980 yuan/ton, a 7.74% change from the previous settlement price. The price increase was due to new long - term funds entering the market, the overall strength of the non - ferrous metals sector, and technical factors, although it didn't break through the 130,000 yuan/ton mark. The news about Ningde Times' lithium mine tailings affected the bulls but its authenticity needs verification. The inventory depletion speed continued to slow down, and the market showed a divergence between futures and spot prices. The current futures price is mainly dominated by funds and sentiment, with over - speculation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 125,000 yuan/ton and closed at 129,980 yuan/ton, up 7.74% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 343,623 lots, and the open interest increased from 490,194 lots to 515,292 lots. The basis was - 4,360 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,281 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 117,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000 - 119,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,568 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Driving Factors**: The price increase was driven by new long - term funds entering the market, the overall strength of the non - ferrous metals sector, and technical factors. The news about Ningde Times' lithium mine tailings affected the bulls but its authenticity needs verification [1]. Inventory and Production - **Inventory**: The total spot inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory decreased by 184 tons to 17,667 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 894 tons to 38,998 tons, and other inventories increased by 910 tons to 52,940 tons. The de - stocking speed continued to slow down [2]. - **Production**: The weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [3]. - **Options**: None [3] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: None [4] - **Cross - variety**: None [4] - **Futures - spot**: None [4]

General Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment cooled, with non-ferrous metals showing mixed performance. Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level in the afternoon, closing at 23,380 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan or 0.67%, with reduced volume and positions. The top 20 seats increased both long and short positions. LME zinc was trading around $3,115/ton, and on the 30th, LME zinc inventories decreased by 300 tons to 106,325 tons [7]. - The tightness in the domestic mining end continued to spread. The decline in processing fees and reduced arrivals supported the continuous reduction of social inventories. The zinc ingot inventory in seven major areas at the beginning of the week was 111,900 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons compared to last week [7]. - As the year - end approached, most traders closed their accounts. Environmental protection restrictions in North China were still in place, demand weakened, the spot trading atmosphere was dull, and the spot premium declined. The Shanghai market had a premium of 210 yuan/ton over 01, Tianjin was at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market, and Guangdong reported a discount of 5 yuan/ton to 02 [7]. - Driven by the strong performance of precious metals, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector improved. Coupled with the tightening supply at the industrial end, Shanghai zinc showed a relatively strong oscillating trend. However, the short - term rapid increase had accumulated certain callback risks. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, market funds tended to take profits for risk - avoidance reasons, and position - holding risks needed to be vigilant [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2601, it opened at 23,060 yuan/ton, closed at 23,335 yuan/ton, with a high of 23,385 yuan/ton, a low of 23,060 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan or 0.50%, and the position decreased by 2,476 to 11,254. For SHFE zinc 2602, it opened at 23,180 yuan/ton, closed at 23,380 yuan/ton, with a high of 23,435 yuan/ton, a low of 23,130 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan or 0.67%, and the position decreased by 217 to 93,470. For SHFE zinc 2603, it opened at 23,180 yuan/ton, closed at 23,420 yuan/ton, with a high of 23,480 yuan/ton, a low of 23,165 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan or 0.56%, and the position increased by 3,181 to 68,747 [7]. - Spot market: The tightness in the domestic mining end led to a decline in processing fees and reduced arrivals, supporting the continuous reduction of social inventories. The demand weakened as the year - end approached, and the spot premium declined [7]. 2. Industry News - On December 30, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 23,250 - 23,635 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 23,180 - 23,565 yuan/ton [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 23,275 - 23,670 yuan/ton, with a premium of 240 yuan/ton over the 2601 contract and a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot [8]. - In the Tianjin market, the 0 zinc ingot was mainly traded between 23,030 - 23,470 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded between 23,130 - 23,540 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingot was traded around 22,930 - 23,310 yuan/ton. Zijin had a premium of 80 - 120 yuan/ton over the 2601 contract, and the ordinary 0 zinc had a discount of 20 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the 2601 contract. Tianjin was at a discount of about 100 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [8]. - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded between 23,070 - 23,480 yuan/ton, with a discount of 5 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents data on the weekly inventory of SMM seven - area zinc ingots, LME zinc inventories, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM [11][14]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening price of SHFE Zinc 2601 was 23,130 yuan/ton, closing at 23,200 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.39%, with a trading volume of 13,730 lots and a decrease of 3,358 lots in open interest. SHFE Zinc 2602 opened at 23,105 yuan/ton, closed at 23,255 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan or 0.54%, with a trading volume of 93,687 lots and a decrease of 3,738 lots in open interest. SHFE Zinc 2603 opened at 23,130 yuan/ton, closed at 23,285 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 0.47%, with a trading volume of 65,566 lots and an increase of 3,134 lots in open interest [7] - **Market Analysis**: The strong performance of domestic silver and copper drove up the center of gravity of SHFE zinc. LME zinc reached a high of $3,146.5/ton on Monday. The tight domestic mine supply continued to be transmitted, with lower processing fees and reduced arrivals supporting the continuous decline of social inventories. The inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions on Monday was 111,900 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons compared with last week. Near the end of the year, most traders closed their accounts, environmental protection restrictions in North China were still in place, demand weakened, the spot trading atmosphere was weak, and the spot premium declined [7] Industry News - **Price Range**: On December 29, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 23,250 - 23,635 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 23,180 - 23,565 yuan/ton. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 23,275 - 23,670 yuan/ton. In the Tianjin market, the 0 zinc ingot was mainly traded at 23,030 - 23,470 yuan/ton, and in the Guangdong market, the 0 zinc was mainly traded at 23,070 - 23,480 yuan/ton [8] - **Premium and Discount**: In the morning, the market offered a premium of 100 yuan/ton for the next - month ticket against the SMM average price. In Ningbo, the regular brand offered a premium of 240 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract and a premium of 140 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. In Tianjin, Zijin offered a premium of 80 - 120 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract, and the common 0 zinc offered a discount of 20 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract. In Guangdong, the mainstream brand offered a discount of 5 yuan/ton for the 2602 contract [8] Data Overview - The report includes data on the weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions by SMM, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE month - to - month spreads, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][14][15]

Group 1: Report Title and Main Topics - The report focuses on the silicon ferroalloy (silicon iron and ferromanganese) market, with titles "Silicon Iron: A Large Number of Warehouse Receipts Registered, Pay Attention to Position Risk" and "Ferromanganese: Cost Bottom Support, Wide - Range Fluctuation" [2][3] Group 2: Analyst Information - The analyst is Li Yafei (Investment Consultation Qualification Number: Z0021184), and the contact person is Jin Yuanyuan (Futures Qualification Number: F03134630) [3] Group 3: Fundamental Data Futures Market - Silicon iron 2603 contract closed at 5448 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 316,787 and an open interest of 217,611; silicon iron 2605 contract closed at 5408 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, with a trading volume of 11,427 and an open interest of 33,842 - Ferromanganese 2601 contract closed at 5636 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, with a trading volume of 120,736 and an open interest of 384,812; ferromanganese 2605 contract closed at 5698 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, with a trading volume of 22,886 and an open interest of 117,466 [3] Spot Market - The summary price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5150 yuan/ton; the price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5520 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 41.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.3 yuan; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 820 yuan/ton [3] Price Spreads - The spot - futures price spread of silicon iron (spot - 03 futures) was - 298 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot - futures price spread of ferromanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 116 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan - The near - far month price spread of silicon iron 2603 - 2605 was 40 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the near - far month price spread of ferromanganese 2601 - 2605 was - 62 yuan/ton, unchanged - The cross - variety price spread of ferromanganese 2603 - silicon iron 2603 was 204 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the cross - variety price spread of ferromanganese 2605 - silicon iron 2605 was 290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [3] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On November 25th, the price range of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), in Qinghai was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and in Inner Mongolia was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 US dollars/ton (down 10 US dollars), and the FOB price of 75 silicon iron was 1090 - 1120 US dollars/ton (down 10 - 20 US dollars) - The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5600 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and the trend intensity of ferromanganese is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The futures market maintains a wide - range volatile operation, and investors should pay attention to position - holding risks before the holiday [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - In the past two days, the prices of coking coal and coke futures have been fluctuating weakly, driving the overall sector to weaken. On the spot market, coal prices in many places have remained stable after a continuous small - scale rebound. Due to increased costs, coke enterprises in many places plan to raise coke prices for the first time [2] Fundamental Analysis - Tangshan is affected by environmental protection policies and requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures before the end of September. However, most of the production restrictions are voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average. The daily average pig iron output last week increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons, and the consumption of raw materials remains at a high level. Steel mills are generally profitable, and in the short - term, as the National Day holiday approaches, the downstream restocking enthusiasm is high, and the inventory of coking coal and coke is further transferred from upstream to downstream [2] Supply - side Situation - At the coal mine end, the production of previously resumed coal mines in Linfen, Shanxi has returned to normal, and the output has continued to rise. Coupled with the increased production of a large mining group in Qinyuan, Changzhi, the output has increased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal last week was 772,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. It is expected that the output of coal mines in the main producing areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much this week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [2]