1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term oscillatory adjustments. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 140,000 level and the support of MA60 [6]. - It is predicted that the stainless - steel futures price will undergo oscillatory adjustments. Attention should be paid to the support at 14,000 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Shanghai Nickel**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly change of - 0.15% and an amplitude of 5.83%. As of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 136,930 yuan/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: This week, stainless - steel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly change of - 0.11% and an amplitude of 2.92%. As of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 14,190 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors include the US initiating 301 investigations against 16 trading partners and the escalation of the Middle - East situation. Fundamentally, the nickel ore import volume is expected to decline as the Philippines enters the rainy season, but Indonesia's RKAB plan may ease supply concerns. The production profit of refined nickel in China has a profit margin, and the output is expected to rise. The demand from stainless - steel mills and new - energy vehicles is improving. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, while the overseas LME inventory slightly decreases. For stainless steel, the raw - material supply is tight, the production cost is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, but the inventory pressure is controllable and is entering the de - stocking cycle [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Adjustment**: As of March 13, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 136,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week. The average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the country was 1,105 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan/nickel from last week [12]. - **Basis**: As of March 13, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 141,350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,420 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 760 yuan/ton [17]. - **Price Ratio**: As of March 13, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.65, unchanged from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14 from last week [23]. - **Net Long Positions**: As of March 13, 2026, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 77,442 lots, a decrease of 4,049 lots from March 9, 2026. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 4,218 lots, an increase of 5,570 lots from March 9, 2026 [29]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - **Nickel Ore and Electrolytic Nickel**: As of March 6, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 9.2433 million tons, a decrease of 784,100 tons from last week. As of March 13, the production profit of electrowon nickel was 3,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,950 yuan/ton from last week [35][36]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: In December 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 29,058 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. In December 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.74%; from January to December, the cumulative import volume was 233,114.881 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.41% [41]. - **Inventory**: As of March 13, the inventory of Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,681 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons from last week. As of March 13, the LME nickel inventory was 285,684 tons, a decrease of 66 tons from last week [47]. - **Demand Side** - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In February 2026, the total output of stainless - steel crude steel was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.37%. Among them, the output of 400 - series was 572,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3%; the output of 300 - series was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.99%; the output of 200 - series was 818,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.79%. In December 2025, the stainless - steel import volume was 141,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,300 tons; the export volume was 404,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,300 tons. From January to February, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.7322 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 262,900 tons [51]. - **Inventory in Key Areas**: As of March 13, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 363,861 tons, a decrease of 10,730 tons from last week; the stainless - steel inventory in Wuxi was 579,576 tons, a decrease of 7,428 tons from last week [56]. - **Stainless - Steel Production Profit**: As of March 13, the stainless - steel production profit was - 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from last week [60]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Real Estate and Home Appliances**: From January to December 2025, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the real - estate development investment was 827.8814 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. In December 2025, the air - conditioner output was 21.6289 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.72%; the household refrigerator output was 10.0115 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.35%; the household washing - machine output was 11.975 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%; the freezer output was 2.9759 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.04% [64]. - **Automobile and Machinery**: In February 2026, the production of new - energy vehicles in China was 1.672 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 43.1%; the sales volume was 1.805 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 32.4%. In December 2025, the excavator output was 37,305 units, a year - on - year increase of 20.8%; the large - and medium - sized tractor output was 32,064 units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; the small - tractor output was 10,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% [68].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - atmosphere supports market sentiment. In the short term, the supply - demand of coal and coke fluctuates marginally and remains at a relatively high level overall. The inventory pressure is temporarily not significant. The prices should be treated with cautious optimism, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high level [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Content - **Market Conditions** - The upward trend of coal and coke futures prices slowed down due to the weak prices of steel and ore, and the prices fluctuated near the upper edge of the 1100 - 1300 oscillation range. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and many coke enterprises started the third round of price increase, which may be implemented this week [3]. - The Fed cut interest rates as expected last week, and the China - US trade negotiation progressed smoothly with reduced frictions. The 15th Five - Year Plan in China was released beyond market expectations, enhancing market risk appetite and supporting the recovery of market sentiment [3]. - **Fundamentals - Supply** - On the domestic side, some coal mines in Shanxi resumed production last week, but the number of shut - down coal mines in Lvliang increased, and the production of a large mine in Xingxian stopped, dragging down the overall production data. The daily average output of coking coal last week was 75.8 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3 million tons compared with the previous week [3]. - On the import side, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to 16.43 million tons, an increase of 5.6 million tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. - **Fundamentals - Demand** - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. However, the current profitability rate would not lead to large - scale production cuts of steel mills for the time being. The daily average pig iron output last week dropped to 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.55 million tons compared with the previous week, mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei [3]. - As the peak demand season was approaching the end, the pressure on finished products increased, and the pig iron output tended to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3].