Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are temporary differences in far - month pricing without a clear direction [2] - For glass, the mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, the phased restocking ability is weak, and the market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus. For纯碱, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.2%. For纯碱, the price range is 1100 - 1500, with a volatility of 26.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.3% [1] Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell FG2601 futures at 1450 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1100 - 1150 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] 纯碱 - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] Core Contradictions - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are differences in far - month pricing direction [2] 利多 and 利空 Analysis - **利多**: Cost has an upward expectation affecting far - month pricing, and policy expectations cannot be completely excluded [2] - **利空**: The mid - upstream inventory of glass and 纯碱 is high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable [2] Glass Fundamentals - The mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, and the phased restocking ability is weak. The daily melting volume on the supply side is stable at around 15.9 - 16 tons with a slight upward expectation. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August decreased by 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] 纯碱 Fundamentals - The medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high. The normal maintenance continues, and the commissioning of Yuanxing Phase II is a focus this year. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the spot price is expected to rise further. The overall rigid demand for 纯碱 is stable, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [3] Price and Spread Data Glass - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1236, the 09 contract price was 950, and the 01 contract price was 1139. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 286, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 189, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 97 [4] 纯碱 - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1357, the 09 contract price was 1160, and the 01 contract price was 1277. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 197, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 117, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 80 [6] Spot Price Data Glass - On September 4, 2025, the average price of沙河 glass was 1124, and prices in various regions were mostly stable [5] 纯碱 - On September 4, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in different regions were mostly stable, with the price in沙河 rising from 1176 to 1192 [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, with increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - end warehouse receipt pressure is relatively large, and the market is starting to follow the delivery logic. There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is approaching delivery, causing trading to return to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price is forecasted to be between 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high glass inventory, sell FG2509 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs. For low glass inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1000 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high soda ash inventory, sell SA2509 futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For low soda ash inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the glass 05 contract was at 1295 (down 0.23% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1102 (down 1.34%), and the 01 contract was at 1224 (unchanged). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 193 (up 12), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 122 (down 15), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 71 (up 3) [6]. - **Glass Spot**: The average price of glass in the Shahe area on August 1, 2025, was 1248, down 19.4 from the previous day. Prices in most regions decreased slightly [7]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was at 1379 (up 0.07% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1256 (up 0.72%), and the 01 contract was at 1333 (up 0.6%). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 123 (down 8), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 77 (up 1), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 46 (up 7) [8]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged on August 1, 2025. The heavy - alkali price in Shahe was 1246, down 1 from the previous day [9].