Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The structural contradiction in the glass industry still exists. The reduction in glass supply is insufficient to change the oversupply situation, and high inventory in the middle - stream puts great pressure on the 01 contract. The expectation of glass cold - repair is rising again, which is negative for the rigid demand of soda ash, but the cost side is relatively firm [2]. - There is no unexpected excessive production reduction on the supply side. The upper and middle - stream inventories of glass and soda ash are high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable. As the off - season approaches, the spot pressure continues to increase [4][7]. - Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery. The glass 01 contract is expected to decline in the end, but the decline may occur near the delivery. Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Although the cost expectation is solid, without production reduction, its valuation has no upward elasticity. The high overall inventory in the upper and middle - stream restricts the price of soda ash, which is expected to be weak in oscillation [7]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 900 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.36% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 46.3%. The monthly price range forecast for soda ash is 1100 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.89% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.0% [1]. 2. Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high glass product inventory worried about price decline, they can short glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1250. They can also sell call options (FG601C1200) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low glass procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 900 - 950. They can also sell put options (FG601P900) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in the procurement cost [1]. Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high soda ash product inventory worried about price decline, they can short soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1250 - 1300. They can also sell call options (SA601C1300) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low soda ash procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1100 - 1150. They can also sell put options (SA601P1100) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in the procurement cost [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data Glass - **Futures Price**: On November 18, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1151 (down 14 or 1.2% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1232 (down 10 or 0.81%), and the 01 contract was 1017 (down 12 or 1.17%) [8]. - **Futures Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread was - 81 (down 4), the 9 - 1 spread was 215 (up 2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 134 (up 2) [8]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of glass in Shahe on November 18, 2025, was 1073 (down 12 from the previous day). The prices in different regions also showed some declines [9]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price**: On November 18, 2025, the price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1287 (down 17 or 1.3% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1352 (down 22 or 1.6%), and the 01 contract was 1214 (down 17 or 1.38%) [10]. - **Futures Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread was - 65 (up 5 or - 7.14%), the 9 - 1 spread was 138 (down 5 or - 3.5%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 73 (unchanged) [10]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were mostly stable on November 18, 2025, except for a 22 - yuan decline in the heavy - soda price in Shahe [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are temporary differences in far - month pricing without a clear direction [2] - For glass, the mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, the phased restocking ability is weak, and the market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus. For纯碱, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.2%. For纯碱, the price range is 1100 - 1500, with a volatility of 26.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.3% [1] Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell FG2601 futures at 1450 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1100 - 1150 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] 纯碱 - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] Core Contradictions - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are differences in far - month pricing direction [2] 利多 and 利空 Analysis - **利多**: Cost has an upward expectation affecting far - month pricing, and policy expectations cannot be completely excluded [2] - **利空**: The mid - upstream inventory of glass and 纯碱 is high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable [2] Glass Fundamentals - The mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, and the phased restocking ability is weak. The daily melting volume on the supply side is stable at around 15.9 - 16 tons with a slight upward expectation. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August decreased by 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] 纯碱 Fundamentals - The medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high. The normal maintenance continues, and the commissioning of Yuanxing Phase II is a focus this year. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the spot price is expected to rise further. The overall rigid demand for 纯碱 is stable, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [3] Price and Spread Data Glass - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1236, the 09 contract price was 950, and the 01 contract price was 1139. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 286, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 189, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 97 [4] 纯碱 - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1357, the 09 contract price was 1160, and the 01 contract price was 1277. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 197, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 117, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 80 [6] Spot Price Data Glass - On September 4, 2025, the average price of沙河 glass was 1124, and prices in various regions were mostly stable [5] 纯碱 - On September 4, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in different regions were mostly stable, with the price in沙河 rising from 1176 to 1192 [8]