1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term range - bound oscillation for oil prices and a medium - term short - position allocation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the conflict in the Middle East has resurfaced, after the roller - coaster market in June, the market has realized that the conflict will not affect energy infrastructure. The conflict has a short - term impact on sentiment but has limited impact on the crude oil fundamentals [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 37 cents, closing at $62.63 per barrel, with a gain of 0.59%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose 37 cents, closing at $66.39 per barrel, with a gain of 0.56%. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.08%, at 484 yuan per barrel [2] - Trump asked the EU to impose tariffs on countries importing Russian crude oil [3] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report predicts that the WTI crude oil price in 2025 will be $64.16 per barrel (previously expected to be $63.58 per barrel), and in 2026 will be $47.77 per barrel (unchanged from the previous expectation). It predicts that the Brent crude oil price in 2025 will be $67.80 per barrel (previously expected to be $67.22 per barrel), and in 2026 will be $51.43 per barrel (unchanged from the previous expectation) [3] - Israel launched an attack on senior political leaders of Hamas in Doha, Qatar. Israel's crackdown on the organization has further escalated. Trump has approved the attack. Qatar condemned the attack, saying it blatantly violated international law [3] - The US Department of the Interior stated that the US has the ability to replace Russia in supplying natural gas to Europe [3] Investment Logic - Israel's attack on Hamas senior leaders in Qatar triggered a short - term rise in oil prices, but the impact on the crude oil fundamentals is limited [4] Strategy - Oil prices will oscillate in a short - term range and be short - positioned in the medium term [5] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [5]

原油日报 | 2025-06-20 霍尔木兹海峡航运扰动仍存，油轮运费上涨 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨38美分，收于每桶73.88美元，涨幅为0.52%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.15美元，收于每桶78.85美元，涨幅为2.80%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.77%，报575元/桶。 2、美国正考虑在本周末对伊朗发动袭击。美国对伊朗的任何攻击计划都在持续演变，一些人指出存在本周末发动 袭击的潜在计划。一些联邦机构的高层领导人也已开始为袭击做准备，福尔多核设施将是攻击的主要目标。一位 白宫官员表示，所有选项仍摆在桌面上。而推迟几天发动袭击，将使伊朗领导人有更多时间向特朗普表明，他们 愿意放弃部分铀浓缩能力，以阻止美国的攻击。而以色列方面预计美国将在24至48小时内就加入对伊朗的打击行 动作出决定。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、自上周以色列对伊朗发动袭击以来，通过霍尔木兹海峡的大型油轮的租赁价格上涨了一倍以上，原因是船东不 愿冒险使用这条航道。克拉克森数据显示，从海湾地区到中国的一艘超大型原油运输船（可运载200万桶石油）的 租用价格，从上周三（以色列发动 ...