1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term range - bound oscillation for oil prices and a medium - term short - position allocation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the conflict in the Middle East has resurfaced, after the roller - coaster market in June, the market has realized that the conflict will not affect energy infrastructure. The conflict has a short - term impact on sentiment but has limited impact on the crude oil fundamentals [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 37 cents, closing at $62.63 per barrel, with a gain of 0.59%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose 37 cents, closing at $66.39 per barrel, with a gain of 0.56%. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.08%, at 484 yuan per barrel [2] - Trump asked the EU to impose tariffs on countries importing Russian crude oil [3] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report predicts that the WTI crude oil price in 2025 will be $64.16 per barrel (previously expected to be $63.58 per barrel), and in 2026 will be $47.77 per barrel (unchanged from the previous expectation). It predicts that the Brent crude oil price in 2025 will be $67.80 per barrel (previously expected to be $67.22 per barrel), and in 2026 will be $51.43 per barrel (unchanged from the previous expectation) [3] - Israel launched an attack on senior political leaders of Hamas in Doha, Qatar. Israel's crackdown on the organization has further escalated. Trump has approved the attack. Qatar condemned the attack, saying it blatantly violated international law [3] - The US Department of the Interior stated that the US has the ability to replace Russia in supplying natural gas to Europe [3] Investment Logic - Israel's attack on Hamas senior leaders in Qatar triggered a short - term rise in oil prices, but the impact on the crude oil fundamentals is limited [4] Strategy - Oil prices will oscillate in a short - term range and be short - positioned in the medium term [5] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are highly volatile due to black swan events. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term bearish positions in the medium term [2] Core Viewpoints - Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz shipping route persist, leading to a significant increase in tanker freight rates, which impacts both crude oil and refined oil tanker freight rates [1] - The conflict between Iran and Israel may lead to disruptions in oil supply, causing significant fluctuations in oil prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On a certain day, the August - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 38 cents to $73.88 per barrel, a 0.52% increase; the August - delivery Brent crude oil futures price rose $2.15 to $78.85 per barrel, a 2.80% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.77% at 575 yuan per barrel [1] - The US is considering launching an attack on Iran this weekend, with the Fordo nuclear facility as the main target. Israel expects the US to decide whether to join the attack on Iran within 24 - 48 hours [1] - Since Israel's attack on Iran last week, the charter price of large oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled. The charter price of a very large crude carrier from the Gulf region to China soared from $19,998 per day last Wednesday to $47,609 per day this Wednesday, far exceeding the 12% increase in the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) [1] - Citigroup analysts expect that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates and causes a disruption of Iran's 110,000 barrels per day of oil exports, the average price of Brent crude oil may rise by about 15% - 20% from the pre - conflict level of $65 per barrel, reaching $75 - $78 per barrel. If the oil supply disruption reaches about 3 million barrels per day and lasts for several months, the oil price may be pushed up to $90 per barrel. JPMorgan Chase predicts that in the most extreme scenario of a wider - area conflict including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may soar to $120 - $130 per barrel [1] - India's Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said that if the ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, India is preparing to purchase crude oil from outside the Persian Gulf and cut its refined oil exports. India has sufficient crude oil and refined oil inventories and diversified crude oil supply sources [1] - The sharp decline in ballast oil tankers entering the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in tanker freight rates, affecting both crude oil and refined oil tanker freight rates. After the conflict in the Middle East last week, the diesel crack spread strengthened significantly, while the gasoline crack did not strengthen due to the small volume of gasoline exports from the Middle East [1] Risks - Downside risks include the signing of the Iran nuclear deal and macro - level black swan events [3] - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]