Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "shockingly weak" for the unilateral strategy, while there are no ratings for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt market has slow inventory reduction and insufficient positive drivers. The overall fundamentals are average, and the market may continue to operate with weak shocks. The cost - side drive is limited due to the weak fundamentals of crude oil, and locally, the supply growth is stronger than the terminal demand, leading to a thick market wait - and - see sentiment [1] 3) Summaries According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On September 18, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3,427 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 233,261 lots, a decrease of 329 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 151,997 lots, an increase of 10,727 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,886 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,480 - 3,770 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,480 - 3,540 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,550 - 3,650 yuan/ton in East China. The asphalt prices in the Northwest and North China markets rose yesterday, while the prices in other regions remained generally stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Shockingly weak; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Graphical Data - There are multiple graphs showing various aspects of the asphalt market, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, and near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, production from independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories in refineries and society (according to Longzhong's data) [3]

原油日报 | 2025-09-10 市场要闻与重要数据 以色列打击卡塔尔哈马斯，对油价影响有限 1、 纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨37美分，收于每桶62.63美元，涨幅为0.59%；11月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨37美分，收于每桶66.39美元，涨幅为0.56%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.08%，报484元/桶。 2、 英国金融时报：特朗普要求欧盟对进口俄罗斯原油的国家征收关税。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、\tEIA短期能源展望报告：预计2025年WTI原油价格为64.16美元/桶，此前预期为63.58美元/桶。预计2026年WTI 原油价格为47.77美元/桶，此前预期为47.77美元/桶。预计2025年布伦特原油价格为67.80美元/桶，此前预期为67.22 美元/桶。预计2026年布伦特原油价格为51.43美元/桶，此前预期为51.43美元/桶。(来源：Bloomberg） 4、\t一名以色列官员表示，以色列对哈马斯在卡塔尔首都多哈的高级政治领导人发动了袭击，在以色列加大对加 沙地带的攻势之际，以色列对该组织的打击进一步升级。以色列官员称，美国总统特朗普已批准对卡塔尔的哈 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 18 to August 22, with caustic soda, fuel oil, and crude oil leading gains, while lithium carbonate, coking coal, and the European shipping index saw declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 2.51% and crude oil by 1.13%, while lithium carbonate fell by 9.14% [1] - The black coal sector saw coking coal drop by 5.53% and coke by 2.95%, while basic metals and agricultural products experienced slight fluctuations [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.51% to $67.79 per barrel, while WTI crude oil rose by 1.00% to $63.77 per barrel, indicating a wide fluctuation in oil prices [2] - OPEC+ reported a production increase of 263,000 barrels per day in July, reaching 27.54 million barrels per day, easing some supply concerns [2][3] - U.S. EIA data showed a significant drop in crude oil inventories by 6.014 million barrels, exceeding expectations, which provided short-term support for oil prices [3] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Insights - Palm oil prices saw a weekly increase of 1.40%, closing at 9,592 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply-demand dynamics [5] - Indonesia's palm oil exports surged by 35.4% in June, reaching 3.61 million tons, despite an increase in production [5] - Malaysia's palm oil production growth has slowed significantly in August, with exports increasing by only 13.61% compared to the previous month [6] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Developments - China's fiscal revenue for the first seven months of 2025 reached 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with tax revenue showing significant recovery [8] - Government spending for the same period totaled 1.60737 trillion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable increase in spending on health and social services [8][9] - The real estate market continues to impact local finances, with high land sales in major cities indicating a potential recovery [9] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite ongoing inflation risks [10][11] - Powell emphasized the need to balance maximum employment with price stability, indicating a shift towards prioritizing employment [11][12] - Analysts expect the Fed may initiate rate cuts in September, but the pace will be cautious due to inflation uncertainties [12]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation, not continuing the previous weak trend, and the price fluctuation range decreased compared with last week. The results of the meetings between the US President and the Russian President, as well as European leaders, met market expectations, reducing concerns about increased supply. The unexpected decline in US EIA crude oil inventories and seasonal improvement in demand supported oil prices. The market's consensus on shale oil cost support strongly supported WTI crude oil around $60 per barrel. After short - term negative factors materialized, geopolitical risks weakened, and the market focused on the crude oil fundamentals. With the unexpected decline in IEA crude oil inventories, strong demand, and cost support, the downside of oil prices was limited, and a technical rebound might occur. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [8][49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Report Abstract - The results of the US - Russia and US - Europe meetings met market expectations, and the Fed's meeting minutes showed increased divergence among the Federal Open Market Committee on the monetary policy path. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. Key data included a 6.014 - million - barrel decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15, a 0.419 - million - barrel increase in EIA Cushing crude oil inventory, and a 0.223 - million - barrel increase in EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory [7]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: EIA crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, and shale oil cost provided support [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The expectation of the consumption peak season faded, and the relationship between the US and Russia eased [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - **US - Russia and US - Europe meetings**: The meetings between the US and Russia, as well as the US and Europe, met market expectations, and geopolitical risks weakened. The results were neutral, neither intensifying the situation nor reaching a comprehensive agreement. Continued tracking of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress was needed [12]. - **Fed's meeting minutes**: The Fed's meeting minutes in July showed increased divergence among Federal Reserve officials. The minutes had limited impact on the market, and the market focused on Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [13]. - **"Secondary tariff" risk**: The risk of "secondary tariffs" subsided. Trump said he would not impose secondary tariffs on China for now, and India decided to continue buying Russian oil [14]. 4. Data Analysis - **Supply**: OPEC's production increased month - on - month in July but was still lower than the production increase plan. The daily output increased by 263,000 barrels to 27.54 million barrels. The main contributors to the increase were Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while Iran's production decreased. US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels per day, increasing the supply pressure. The number of US oil rigs increased by 1 [15][17][19]. - **Demand**: US crude oil consumption demand and gasoline demand increased month - on - month. The US refinery utilization rate remained high, with limited room for further increase. China's state - owned refinery utilization rate might have reached its peak, while the independent refinery utilization rate was in a climbing cycle. The profit of state - owned refineries decreased month - on - month, while that of independent refineries increased slightly [25][26][31]. - **Inventory**: US EIA crude oil inventory decreased month - on - month, while the strategic petroleum reserve inventory continued to accumulate. The Cushing area's crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the gasoline inventory decreased. It was expected that the gasoline inventory would enter a destocking cycle [41][45]. - **Crack spread**: The US crude oil crack spread increased month - on - month, reaching a new high this year, indicating the continued recovery of US refined oil consumption [46]. 5.后市研判 - The conclusion was consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the downside of oil prices was limited, and a technical rebound might occur. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [49].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Nanhua Crude Oil Market Daily - Contracting Volume Rebound on the Disk, US-Russia Talks a Key Variable [1] - Report date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yang Xinyue (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0022518) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - As the US-Russia talks approach, geopolitical expectations have cooled, and the overnight market rebounded slightly, mainly due to short covering, indicating that shorts chose to take profits and avoid potential geopolitical risks if the talks go poorly. Fundamentals will dominate the market, with seasonal demand weakening and the risk of supply surplus increasing, so time is bearish for crude oil, and the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to the US-Russia talks at 3:30 am Beijing time on Saturday [3]. Group 3: Long-Short Analysis Short-term Long-Short Game - In the short term, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, with the daily line closing above the 5-day moving average, and the downward pressure has marginally eased. The core driver is short covering ahead of the "Trump meeting" to lock in profits and avoid geopolitical risks, leading to a rebound on contracting volume. However, this rebound has not disrupted the daily-level downward trend, and it is necessary to observe whether the 5-day moving average can be effectively stabilized. The overlapping area of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forms a key resistance, and the divergence between volume and price will increase the risk of a mid-term breakdown [4]. US-Russia Talks as a Key Variable for the Mid-term Direction - The market anticipates a neutral to bearish outcome of the talks. If the talks lead to a thaw between the US and Russia (such as paving the way for a tripartite meeting) and no tense news is released, crude oil will lose geopolitical support. If the geopolitical situation cools down to a ceasefire, the previous geopolitical premium will gradually correct, and the market will weaken. Only if the talks deteriorate unexpectedly (such as imposing secondary tariffs on Russia and strengthening sanctions) could it trigger a re-pricing of geopolitical risks, driving a rebound and consolidating the July trading range, which is the only clear short-term bullish scenario [5]. Fundamental Weakening as a Long-term Constraint - The current fundamentals have clearly weakened. On the demand side, as the peak summer oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches its turning point, the marginal downward pressure will become more apparent. On the supply side, the risk of surplus is rising, and the market's expectation of the supply-demand gap has shifted from a tight balance to a loose one, which may continue to dominate trading. Moreover, the current market has not fully priced in the fundamental bearishness, and after short-term event-driven disturbances subside, the fundamental negatives may gradually be priced in, leading to a potential catch-up decline [6]. Significant Risk of Medium- to Long-term Valuation Decline - Without new geopolitical premiums, crude oil will return to fundamental-driven trading, and Brent crude is likely to decline to the $60 - $65 per barrel range in the medium term, which corresponds to a reasonable valuation center under the expectation of a loose supply-demand balance. Overall, time is unfavorable for bulls [7]. Factors - Bullish factors: Short-term technical repair signals, short covering by funds, and potential geopolitical risk pricing opportunities [8] - Bearish factors: Bearish pricing expectations for the US-Russia talks and fundamental weakening pressure [8] Group 4: Market Dynamics US-Russia Talks - Russia has confirmed that the "Putin-Trump meeting" will be held at a US military base in Alaska. Sources said that US Middle East envoy Witkoff, Russian Finance Minister, Russian Defense Minister, and Russian presidential envoy and head of the sovereign wealth fund Kirill Dmitriev are expected to attend the "Trump-Putin meeting" in Alaska on Friday (Saturday morning Beijing time). Kremlin aide Ushakov said that Putin and Trump will hold a one-on-one meeting with an interpreter, and the summit will discuss sensitive issues. Russian President Putin said that the US is making positive efforts to end the conflict and promote a nuclear arms control agreement. If the two countries reach an agreement in the field of nuclear arms control, peace between Russia and the US and in the wider world will be strengthened. US President Trump said that in his second meeting with Putin, Zelensky will be more important, and he believes that Putin and Zelensky will achieve peace [9]. Russian Policy - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak supports extending the gasoline export ban until September, stating that the domestic fuel supply is sufficient [9]. EIA Natural Gas Report - As of the week ending August 8, the total US natural gas inventory was 318.6 billion cubic feet, an increase of 56 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a decrease of 79 billion cubic feet from the same period last year (a year-on-year decline of 2.4%), and an increase of 19.6 billion cubic feet (a 6.6% increase) compared to the 5-year average [10]. Indian Oil Imports - Sources said that India's BPCL has awarded a tender for US oil imports from September to March next year to trader Glencore. Starting from September, Glencore will supply 2 million barrels of WTI Midland crude oil per month. An executive of India's Bharat Petroleum said that last month's imports of Russian crude oil were affected by changes in discounts. Without sanctions, the company hopes to maintain the proportion of processed Russian crude oil at 33% - 35% [10]. Group 5: Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - The table shows the prices and spreads of various crude oils on August 15, 2025, August 14, 2025, and August 8, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - The macro - economic data in Europe and the US are positive, and tariff negotiations have made progress, boosting market sentiment. However, high - interest - rate pressure persists, and there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut. Attention should be paid to actions related to tariffs next week [9]. - OPEC supply is generally stable. The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect India and Turkey's purchase of Russian oil and intensify competition for Middle - Eastern oil. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela due to heavy - oil shortages [9]. - Global refinery maintenance will decrease by 640,000 barrels per day next week, and the current peak - season demand supports oil prices. But the room for further increase is limited [9]. - US and ARA crude inventories are decreasing, and US refinery operations are at a high level. Gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels, and the demand for crude oil processing is expected to be strong [9]. - Brent and WTI spreads are falling, and Dubai spreads are slightly rebounding. Overall, the spreads' support for oil prices is weakening [9][16]. - Diesel cracking remains high, but there are signs of weakening in both gasoline and diesel cracking, and the support for oil prices will weaken in the future [9][18]. - In the short term, although macro - sentiment is positive, supply concerns and limited demand growth space put pressure on oil prices. In the long term, OPEC's potential production increase and insufficient demand growth will lead to a downward trend in oil prices [9]. Gasoline and Diesel - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside space is limited in the off - season. The retail price adjustment of gasoline has led to a decrease in the wholesale - retail price difference [140][141]. - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to continue to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in the East China region has declined, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries has increased [140]. - The export quota of refined oil has increased by 900,000 tons, and the export expectation still has room to rise [140]. - Typhoons have led to a short - term decline in gasoline demand, but the summer season still provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are also rising. The supply pressure of diesel will be the main factor affecting future trading [140]. Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply pressure remains, and the spreads continue to decline. Although demand has improved, supply is still abundant. The cracking spreads have rebounded, but the rebound in Singapore is relatively small [201]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply is sufficient, and the spreads are also falling. However, the Danagote plant upgrade may lead to a supply shortage in the medium term, and the low - sulfur cracking spreads may rebound [201]. - The demand for marine fuel is expected to continue to improve, and the demand for power generation has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil. The feedstock demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in the US and China has increased [201]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Macro - European and US economic data are good, and tariff negotiations have advanced, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. Market expectations for the Fed to keep rates unchanged next week are high, but there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut [9][10][15]. Supply - OPEC supply is stable, and Russia's production increase may be slow. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela. Non - OPEC supply shows different trends, with Mexico's exports decreasing and Brazil and Guyana's exports increasing [9][44]. - The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect the purchase of Russian oil by India and Turkey [50]. Demand - Global refinery maintenance will decrease next week, and the peak - season demand supports oil prices. The demand for light, medium, and heavy crude oil is increasing, and the demand for medium - quality oil has increased significantly [67][70]. - The improvement in international and domestic aviation coal demand is positive for oil demand [79][82]. Inventory - US refinery operations are at a high level, and gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels. ARA, Middle - East, Singapore, and Japanese inventories show different trends [9][108][114]. Freight - Crude - oil tanker freight rates are generally falling, while refined - oil tanker freight rates are slightly rising [117][120]. Position - The net long positions of Brent and WTI managed funds have significantly decreased, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment [123]. Gasoline and Diesel Price Structure - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside is limited. The wholesale - retail price difference of gasoline and diesel has decreased [140][141]. Supply - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in East China has declined and that in Shandong has increased. The export quota of refined oil has increased [140]. Demand - Typhoons have affected short - term gasoline demand, but the summer season provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. Inventory - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are rising [140]. Transaction - The crackdown on illegal diesel sales has improved the production - sales situation of independent refineries' truck - loaded diesel [194]. Fuel Oil Price Structure - High - sulfur spreads are falling, and cracking spreads have rebounded. Low - sulfur spreads are also falling, and there is a potential for a rebound in cracking spreads due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Supply - High - sulfur supply is abundant in the near term, with high Russian and Iranian exports expected. Low - sulfur supply may be tight in the medium term due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Demand - Marine - fuel demand is improving, and the demand for power generation and feedstock shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [201]. Inventory - Inventories in Singapore, Fujeirah, and the US are increasing, while those in ARA and Japan are slightly decreasing [201].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Trump's tariff threat is essentially a political gaming tool with a weak intention to block Russian oil, and its impact on the crude oil market will be limited to short - term emotional shocks. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, as major macro uncertainties are gradually eliminated, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals [1][12]. Summary by Directory Policy Nature: Political Gaming Takes Precedence over Energy Blockade - The core logic of the US's secondary sanctions signal against Russia is more of a geopolitical pressure tool rather than a substantial energy blockade. The measure of imposing a 100% tariff on countries like China, India, and Brazil that purchase Russian oil has more political intent than actual enforcement effectiveness. Trump chose to start sanctions through an executive order, leaving a 10 - 12 - day negotiation window and room for flexible adjustment. Considering the export and import structures between relevant countries and the US, the sanctions are likely to stay at the level of "extreme pressure", creating a market expectation of "high threat, low execution" [2]. Historical Reference: The "Pulse - like Impact - Rapid Fading" Path of January Sanctions - The Biden administration's sanctions on Russian oil tankers in January this year can be regarded as a preview of the current situation. Although it initially caused Brent crude to jump 6.8% to $81.2 per barrel in 3 trading days, the actual effect was quickly disproven. - There were structural loopholes in the evasion mechanism. Countries like India and Turkey used old tankers for STS transfer, and China and Russia increased the proportion of RMB settlement. Some ports quickly took over the unloading demand of Russian oil [3]. - The market expectation self - corrected. After the 5th trading day of the sanctions announcement, the oil price started to decline because the actual export volume did not drop significantly. Russia adjusted its export structure, and the overall export volume quickly recovered. The freight increase was lower than expected [4]. - Fundamentals played the ultimate leading role. During the sanctions, OPEC+ maintained a production cut of 160 million barrels per day, US shale oil production was stable, and OECD commercial inventories rose, which jointly suppressed the upward space of oil prices. Brent crude returned to the $75 - 80 range within a week. Compared with the current situation, the market has a higher tolerance for geopolitical disturbances, and short - term sharp fluctuations are unlikely to reappear [6]. Market Focus Shift: The OPEC+ Meeting Will Reshape the Oil Price Logic - As the Fed's interest - rate decision in July becomes clear, the crude oil market logic is accelerating its return to fundamentals. The OPEC+ meeting on August 3 will be a key turning point. - The continuity of the production - cut agreement is a focus. Whether Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary production cut of 100 million barrels per day is crucial. Maintaining the current policy may support the oil price, while relaxation may suppress the geopolitical premium. OPEC+ core members have already restored 191.9 million barrels per day of production, and the remaining voluntary production - cut quota is only 24.5 million barrels per day [7]. - Russia's production statement is important. Despite the sanctions threat, Russia's crude oil production has been stable. If it promises to maintain production discipline at the meeting, it will strengthen the market's expectation of supply tightness. However, the impact of sanctions on global supply is limited due to Russia's adjusted export structure [8]. - The signal of idle - capacity release is significant. Saudi Arabia has about 300 million barrels per day of idle capacity. Whether it hints at increasing production in the fourth quarter will directly affect the medium - and long - term oil price trend. The market generally expects OPEC+ to approve a production increase of 54.8 million barrels per day in September, which may exacerbate the concern of oversupply. OPEC+ decisions usually have a 4 - 6 - week impact on oil prices, longer than the short - term impact of geopolitical events [9]. Viewpoint Summary: Short - Term Disturbances Do Not Change the Medium - Term Pattern - Trump's tariff threat is a short - term emotional shock. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. As the OPEC+ meeting approaches, the market logic is shifting from geopolitical gaming to fundamentals. The global crude oil market shows a "tight balance" feature, and factors such as stable US shale oil production and rising OECD inventories restrict the upside space of oil prices. Investors should rationally view the current geopolitical premium, hedge the emotional premium in the short term, and focus on structural opportunities after the OPEC+ meeting in the medium term [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak season could support the market to some extent, but the supply pressure would gradually increase later, and the upside space was limited. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half of the week due to tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors. The short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by tariff negotiations and geopolitical disturbances, while the long - term view remains bearish due to strong supply and the fading consumption peak season [8]. - The crude oil fundamentals show that the East market's month - spread is strong due to domestic oil storage, and diesel leads the refined oil cracking. The US gasoline demand has slumped during the peak season, indicating poor US consumption ability. The domestic anti - involution has little impact on crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and the final tax rates [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Views - Last week's view was that the consumption peak season could support the market, but the supply pressure would increase later. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half due to tariff negotiations. The short - term is affected by tariff and geopolitical factors, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - Key points include the strong East market month - spread, weak US gasoline demand, little impact of anti - involution on crude oil, and attention to tariff negotiations [8]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **East - West Market Spread Differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) are falling, while the East market spreads are strong, related to China's imports [12]. - **China's Inventory Increase**: China's crude oil implied inventory from March to June 2025 reached a new high in recent years. The increase is due to price drops and strategic storage, which boosts the East market's month - spread [15]. - **Diesel Cracking Leading**: Diesel cracking leads the refined oil cracking market, with all regional 211 cracking (higher diesel proportion) stronger than 321 cracking [18]. - **Global Spot Cracking**: Diesel cracking is strong, while gasoline cracking is downward, corresponding to weak US gasoline consumption. The long - term supply reduction of Saudi and Russia supports diesel cracking [20]. - **Global Diesel Inventory**: Diesel inventories in the US and China are at multi - year lows, while the inventory in Northwest Europe is neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventory is declining [23]. - **US Gasoline Demand**: US gasoline demand slumped during the peak driving season, with inventory being neutral. Low demand at current prices deepens the expectation of poor US consumption in the second half of the year [26]. - **Domestic Anti - Involution**: It has little impact on crude oil supply. If it occurs in refineries, it may be bearish for crude oil but bullish for chemical by - products [29]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The US has made progress in some tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the results and final tax rates, which may affect the US economy and Fed policies [30]. - **North American Hurricane Forecast**: This year's hurricane activity is expected to be 60% above average, which may disrupt supply. Currently, there is no hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but there is a potential cyclone [32]. 3. Price, Spread, and Cracking - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC, WTI, Brent, etc. [35][52] - **Crude Oil Positions**: The positions of WTI and Brent futures and options are presented, including those of management funds, producers, etc. [37][40] - **Crude Oil Futures Structure and Month - Spread**: The futures structure and month - spread of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC are shown [43][46] - **Cross - Market Spreads**: Cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, are presented [49][52] - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi's official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of oil to different regions in August and July are provided, showing price changes [59] - **Refined Product Prices and Cracking**: The prices and cracking spreads of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, etc., in different regions are presented [64][72] 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global Crude Oil Supply**: The supply of global, non - OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil is shown, with forecasts [85] - **Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply by Country**: The supply of non - OPEC countries (US, Russia, China, etc.) and OPEC countries (Saudi, Iraq, etc.) is presented [88][94] - **Global Rig Count**: The number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally is shown [100] - **Refinery Shutdowns**: The shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions are presented [106][108] - **Global Crude Oil Demand**: The demand of OECD, non - OECD, and global crude oil is shown, with forecasts [110] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [119] - **EIA Balance Sheet**: The EIA's supply, consumption, and balance data for 2025 and 2026 are provided [140] 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA Weekly Report Main Data**: Data on crude oil production, commercial inventory, refinery utilization rate, etc., are presented [155] - **Supply and Demand Data**: Data on the production of various refined products, refinery demand, terminal demand, and inventory are provided [158][164][167] - **Inventory Data**: Data on crude oil and refined product inventories, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [173][176] - **Import and Export**: Not detailed in the remaining content

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental drivers. OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations, but the actual increment is limited. The demand side still has support, and combined with geopolitical changes, oil prices are expected to rise in the 3rd quarter. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was 65.67 dollars/barrel, closing at 65.56 dollars/barrel, with a high of 66.06 dollars/barrel, a low of 65.18 dollars/barrel, a decline of 0.38%, and a trading volume of 21.80 million lots. Brent's opening price was 69.15 dollars/barrel, closing at 68.86 dollars/barrel, with a high of 69.41 dollars/barrel, a low of 68.60 dollars/barrel, a decline of 0.51%, and a trading volume of 31.49 million lots. SC's opening price was 520.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 517.4 yuan/barrel, with a high of 520.9 yuan/barrel, a low of 514.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.92%, and a trading volume of 8.67 million lots [6] - **News**: OPEC monthly report data shows that member countries' production in June was 220,000 barrels per day, and demand growth rate remains unchanged. OPEC+ decided to further expand the production increase from August, from the previous 410,000 barrels per day to 550,000 barrels per day. In the first month of OPEC's expanded production increase, the production of 8 member countries only increased by 150,000 barrels per day month-on-month. Although the three major institutions have raised their demand expectations for the second half of the year, due to the supply growth potential of countries such as Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited, and the inventory pressure in the 4th quarter will be greater than that in the 3rd quarter [6][7] - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected that oil prices will still have the potential to rise in the 3rd quarter, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] 2. Industry News - The US threatens to withdraw from the International Energy Agency [8] - US Energy Secretary Wright said that the US is considering innovative trading plans to replenish oil reserves [8] - Two sources revealed that Europe plans to contact Iran in the next few days and weeks, stating that if Iran takes measures to reassure the world about its nuclear program, it can avoid the automatic resumption of sanctions [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, etc., but does not list specific data values [10][12][18]

Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the under - performance of Trump's policies on Ukraine and Russia, market concerns about supply tightening and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine situation have significantly eased, causing international oil prices to decline. The current demand is strong, with high refinery operating rates in the US and China, and China's high import demand, which supports the Dubai price. However, future demand growth is limited and will face seasonal decline. Even if OPEC + may suspend production increases in October, the US demand will reach an inflection point in September, and the "long - tail effect" of previous production increases will gradually weaken the oil fundamentals. The oil market is short - term bullish but has limited upside potential, and the pressure will increase over time [2]. Market Dynamics Macro - Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach a conflict agreement within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed, and the US will also impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. This statement led to a drop in oil futures to a daily low [3]. - Brazil's vice - president denied the news of tariff reduction and extension requests, and Brazil will announce counter - measures. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods [4]. Fundamentals - In June, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, and the processing volume was 62.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The strong performance in June was due to the good profit margins of state - owned refineries. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%, contributing to a 5.3% growth in the first half of the year [5][6]. - An explosion occurred at the Sarsang oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan, suspending production. The average production of the block is about 36,000 barrels per day [6]. - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in June decreased by 3.4% month - on - month. It is expected that exports from July to August will increase significantly [7]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes | Indicator | 2025 - 07 - 14 | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 07 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 69.21 | 70.36 | 69.58 | - 1.15 | - 0.37 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 65.81 | 67.04 | 66.49 | - 1.23 | - 0.68 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 507.5 | 511.9 | 505 | - 4.4 | 2.5 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 67.59 | 68.36 | 67.72 | - 0.77 | - 0.13 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 70.76 | 71.65 | 71.26 | - 0.89 | - 0.5 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 70.74 | 71.55 | 71.11 | - 0.81 | - 0.37 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 1.62 | 2 | 1.86 | - 0.38 | - 0.24 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.98 | 1.2 | 1.12 | - 0.22 | - 0.14 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 2.07 | 1.73 | 1.97 | 0.34 | 0.1 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 1.1 | 1.05 | 0.95 | 0.05 | 0.15 | | SC Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 11.1 | 10 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 5.5 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 2.234 | 1.6531 | 2.7249 | 0.5809 | - 0.4909 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.416 | - 1.3569 | - 0.5451 | - 0.0591 | - 0.8709 | [9]