交易行情热点 热点一：原油走势震荡，后市分歧加剧 本周原油价格整体呈现宽幅震荡态势，未延续此前偏弱走势。布伦特原油本周上涨2.51%，收67.79美 元/桶；美原油上涨1.00%，收63.77美元/桶。 油价反弹受多空因素交织影响。在供应方面，OPEC月报数据显示，OPEC+7月份石油日产量增加了26.3 万桶，达到2754万桶，说明该组织逐步释放增产的产能，但仍旧低于增产计划，这在一定程度上缓解了 市场的供应担忧情绪。而据EIA数据，截至8月15日当周美国国内原油产量环比增加，产量有触底反弹 的态势，又令原油供应压力加大。 在需求方面，美国EIA原油库存超预期下降，需求端在短期内仍存在季节性改善的迹象，对油价形成支 撑；汽油总产量引申需求环比小幅回升，但整体处于近几年平均值附近，表明炼厂提负带动原油消费， 但是成品油消费增速有待改善。中国地炼预计在9月初迎来开工率爬坡周期，一定程度上可带动原油消 费。 具体来看，8月20日晚间，美国EIA数据显示，美国截至8月15日当周原油库存减少601.4万桶，预期为减 少175.9万桶，较过去五年均值低了5.07%；汽油库存减少272万桶，预期为减少91.5万桶；精炼油 ...

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-08-22 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘R要T 01 重点数据 （1）美国至8月15日当周EIA原油库存减少601.4万桶，预期减少175.9万桶，前值为增加303.6万桶。 （2）美国至8月15日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存增加41.9万桶，前值为增加4.5万桶。 （3）美国至8月15日当周EIA战略石油储备库存增加22.3万桶，前值为增加22.6万桶。 主要观点 本周原油价格整体呈现宽幅震荡的态势，未延续此前偏弱的走势，且价格波动幅度较上周有所下降，一方面美国 总统与俄罗斯总统、欧洲多国领导人的会晤结果基本符合市场预期，会晤双方在某些层面达成共识，但暂未达成全面 协议，市场对供应增加的担忧下降，另外一方面美国EIA原油库存超预期下降，需求端仍存在季节性改善的迹象，对 油价形成支撑，同时，市场对页岩油的成本支撑的一致预期，对WTI原油在60美元/桶附近形成较强支撑，油价向下打 开空间需要更强的利空驱动。短期来看，利空落地后，地缘风险 ...

南华原油市场日报 ——盘面缩量反弹，美俄会谈成关键变量 2025年8月15日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 1.短期多空博弈：技术修复与资金避险主导 短期原油呈止跌反弹态势，日线收于5日均线上方，下行压力边际缓解，核心驱动为"川普会"前空头主动 减仓 ——空头既锁定阶段性盈利，也规避会晤不顺的地缘风险，推动缩量反弹。但需注意，此次反弹未破 坏日线级别下跌趋势，需观察5日均线能否有效企稳，且5日与10日均线叠加区域构成关键阻力，量价背离 将加剧中期破位下行风险。 2.美俄会谈成中期方向关键变量 市场预判会晤结果中性偏空：若会晤为美俄破冰（如铺垫三方会谈），无紧张消息释放，原油将失去地缘 利好支撑；若地缘局势降温至停火导向，前期地缘溢价将逐步修复，盘面趋弱。仅当会晤超预期恶化（如 对俄加征二级关税、强化制裁），才可能触发地缘风险重定价，推动反弹并巩固7月震荡格局，此为短期唯 一明确利多场景。 3.基本面趋势性转弱成长期压制 当前基本面已明确转弱：需求端临近北半球夏季用油高峰拐点，边际走弱压力将显性化；供给端过剩风险 升温，市场对 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - The macro - economic data in Europe and the US are positive, and tariff negotiations have made progress, boosting market sentiment. However, high - interest - rate pressure persists, and there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut. Attention should be paid to actions related to tariffs next week [9]. - OPEC supply is generally stable. The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect India and Turkey's purchase of Russian oil and intensify competition for Middle - Eastern oil. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela due to heavy - oil shortages [9]. - Global refinery maintenance will decrease by 640,000 barrels per day next week, and the current peak - season demand supports oil prices. But the room for further increase is limited [9]. - US and ARA crude inventories are decreasing, and US refinery operations are at a high level. Gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels, and the demand for crude oil processing is expected to be strong [9]. - Brent and WTI spreads are falling, and Dubai spreads are slightly rebounding. Overall, the spreads' support for oil prices is weakening [9][16]. - Diesel cracking remains high, but there are signs of weakening in both gasoline and diesel cracking, and the support for oil prices will weaken in the future [9][18]. - In the short term, although macro - sentiment is positive, supply concerns and limited demand growth space put pressure on oil prices. In the long term, OPEC's potential production increase and insufficient demand growth will lead to a downward trend in oil prices [9]. Gasoline and Diesel - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside space is limited in the off - season. The retail price adjustment of gasoline has led to a decrease in the wholesale - retail price difference [140][141]. - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to continue to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in the East China region has declined, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries has increased [140]. - The export quota of refined oil has increased by 900,000 tons, and the export expectation still has room to rise [140]. - Typhoons have led to a short - term decline in gasoline demand, but the summer season still provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are also rising. The supply pressure of diesel will be the main factor affecting future trading [140]. Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply pressure remains, and the spreads continue to decline. Although demand has improved, supply is still abundant. The cracking spreads have rebounded, but the rebound in Singapore is relatively small [201]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply is sufficient, and the spreads are also falling. However, the Danagote plant upgrade may lead to a supply shortage in the medium term, and the low - sulfur cracking spreads may rebound [201]. - The demand for marine fuel is expected to continue to improve, and the demand for power generation has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil. The feedstock demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in the US and China has increased [201]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Macro - European and US economic data are good, and tariff negotiations have advanced, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. Market expectations for the Fed to keep rates unchanged next week are high, but there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut [9][10][15]. Supply - OPEC supply is stable, and Russia's production increase may be slow. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela. Non - OPEC supply shows different trends, with Mexico's exports decreasing and Brazil and Guyana's exports increasing [9][44]. - The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect the purchase of Russian oil by India and Turkey [50]. Demand - Global refinery maintenance will decrease next week, and the peak - season demand supports oil prices. The demand for light, medium, and heavy crude oil is increasing, and the demand for medium - quality oil has increased significantly [67][70]. - The improvement in international and domestic aviation coal demand is positive for oil demand [79][82]. Inventory - US refinery operations are at a high level, and gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels. ARA, Middle - East, Singapore, and Japanese inventories show different trends [9][108][114]. Freight - Crude - oil tanker freight rates are generally falling, while refined - oil tanker freight rates are slightly rising [117][120]. Position - The net long positions of Brent and WTI managed funds have significantly decreased, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment [123]. Gasoline and Diesel Price Structure - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside is limited. The wholesale - retail price difference of gasoline and diesel has decreased [140][141]. Supply - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in East China has declined and that in Shandong has increased. The export quota of refined oil has increased [140]. Demand - Typhoons have affected short - term gasoline demand, but the summer season provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. Inventory - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are rising [140]. Transaction - The crackdown on illegal diesel sales has improved the production - sales situation of independent refineries' truck - loaded diesel [194]. Fuel Oil Price Structure - High - sulfur spreads are falling, and cracking spreads have rebounded. Low - sulfur spreads are also falling, and there is a potential for a rebound in cracking spreads due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Supply - High - sulfur supply is abundant in the near term, with high Russian and Iranian exports expected. Low - sulfur supply may be tight in the medium term due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Demand - Marine - fuel demand is improving, and the demand for power generation and feedstock shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [201]. Inventory - Inventories in Singapore, Fujeirah, and the US are increasing, while those in ARA and Japan are slightly decreasing [201].

原油：若美国对俄罗斯实施二级制裁，对原油盘面的影响有多大？ 2025年7月30日 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 杨歆悦：投资咨询证号：Z0022518 核心观点： 特朗普的关税威胁本质是政治博弈工具，其封锁俄油的实际意图较弱，对原油市场的影响将局限于短期情绪 冲击。参考1月案例，地缘风险事件的影响周期通常不超过10个交易日，且最终回吐幅度达初始涨幅的85%， 其走势对近期有参考意义。地缘风险事件对原油盘面的影响周期较短，无法扭转整体趋势。宏观超级周结束 后，随着宏观层面主要不确定性逐步消除，市场的逻辑将更多转向基本面。 一、政策本质：政治博弈优先于能源封锁 特朗普政府近期释放的对俄二级制裁信号，其核心逻辑更倾向于地缘政治施压工具而非实质性能源封锁。根 据7月28日的最新表态，美国计划对购买俄罗斯石油的中国、印度、巴西等国加征100%关税，这一措施的政治 意图远大于实际执行效力——通过制造贸易成本威慑，加速推动俄乌停火谈判，而非彻底切断俄罗斯原油出 口链条。 从政策执行特征看，特朗普选择以行政命令启动制裁（而非参议院提出的500%关税立法），既保留了10-12天 的谈判窗口期，也为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak season could support the market to some extent, but the supply pressure would gradually increase later, and the upside space was limited. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half of the week due to tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors. The short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by tariff negotiations and geopolitical disturbances, while the long - term view remains bearish due to strong supply and the fading consumption peak season [8]. - The crude oil fundamentals show that the East market's month - spread is strong due to domestic oil storage, and diesel leads the refined oil cracking. The US gasoline demand has slumped during the peak season, indicating poor US consumption ability. The domestic anti - involution has little impact on crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and the final tax rates [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Views - Last week's view was that the consumption peak season could support the market, but the supply pressure would increase later. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half due to tariff negotiations. The short - term is affected by tariff and geopolitical factors, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - Key points include the strong East market month - spread, weak US gasoline demand, little impact of anti - involution on crude oil, and attention to tariff negotiations [8]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **East - West Market Spread Differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) are falling, while the East market spreads are strong, related to China's imports [12]. - **China's Inventory Increase**: China's crude oil implied inventory from March to June 2025 reached a new high in recent years. The increase is due to price drops and strategic storage, which boosts the East market's month - spread [15]. - **Diesel Cracking Leading**: Diesel cracking leads the refined oil cracking market, with all regional 211 cracking (higher diesel proportion) stronger than 321 cracking [18]. - **Global Spot Cracking**: Diesel cracking is strong, while gasoline cracking is downward, corresponding to weak US gasoline consumption. The long - term supply reduction of Saudi and Russia supports diesel cracking [20]. - **Global Diesel Inventory**: Diesel inventories in the US and China are at multi - year lows, while the inventory in Northwest Europe is neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventory is declining [23]. - **US Gasoline Demand**: US gasoline demand slumped during the peak driving season, with inventory being neutral. Low demand at current prices deepens the expectation of poor US consumption in the second half of the year [26]. - **Domestic Anti - Involution**: It has little impact on crude oil supply. If it occurs in refineries, it may be bearish for crude oil but bullish for chemical by - products [29]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The US has made progress in some tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the results and final tax rates, which may affect the US economy and Fed policies [30]. - **North American Hurricane Forecast**: This year's hurricane activity is expected to be 60% above average, which may disrupt supply. Currently, there is no hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but there is a potential cyclone [32]. 3. Price, Spread, and Cracking - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC, WTI, Brent, etc. [35][52] - **Crude Oil Positions**: The positions of WTI and Brent futures and options are presented, including those of management funds, producers, etc. [37][40] - **Crude Oil Futures Structure and Month - Spread**: The futures structure and month - spread of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC are shown [43][46] - **Cross - Market Spreads**: Cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, are presented [49][52] - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi's official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of oil to different regions in August and July are provided, showing price changes [59] - **Refined Product Prices and Cracking**: The prices and cracking spreads of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, etc., in different regions are presented [64][72] 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global Crude Oil Supply**: The supply of global, non - OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil is shown, with forecasts [85] - **Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply by Country**: The supply of non - OPEC countries (US, Russia, China, etc.) and OPEC countries (Saudi, Iraq, etc.) is presented [88][94] - **Global Rig Count**: The number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally is shown [100] - **Refinery Shutdowns**: The shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions are presented [106][108] - **Global Crude Oil Demand**: The demand of OECD, non - OECD, and global crude oil is shown, with forecasts [110] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [119] - **EIA Balance Sheet**: The EIA's supply, consumption, and balance data for 2025 and 2026 are provided [140] 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA Weekly Report Main Data**: Data on crude oil production, commercial inventory, refinery utilization rate, etc., are presented [155] - **Supply and Demand Data**: Data on the production of various refined products, refinery demand, terminal demand, and inventory are provided [158][164][167] - **Inventory Data**: Data on crude oil and refined product inventories, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [173][176] - **Import and Export**: Not detailed in the remaining content

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental drivers. OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations, but the actual increment is limited. The demand side still has support, and combined with geopolitical changes, oil prices are expected to rise in the 3rd quarter. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was 65.67 dollars/barrel, closing at 65.56 dollars/barrel, with a high of 66.06 dollars/barrel, a low of 65.18 dollars/barrel, a decline of 0.38%, and a trading volume of 21.80 million lots. Brent's opening price was 69.15 dollars/barrel, closing at 68.86 dollars/barrel, with a high of 69.41 dollars/barrel, a low of 68.60 dollars/barrel, a decline of 0.51%, and a trading volume of 31.49 million lots. SC's opening price was 520.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 517.4 yuan/barrel, with a high of 520.9 yuan/barrel, a low of 514.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.92%, and a trading volume of 8.67 million lots [6] - **News**: OPEC monthly report data shows that member countries' production in June was 220,000 barrels per day, and demand growth rate remains unchanged. OPEC+ decided to further expand the production increase from August, from the previous 410,000 barrels per day to 550,000 barrels per day. In the first month of OPEC's expanded production increase, the production of 8 member countries only increased by 150,000 barrels per day month-on-month. Although the three major institutions have raised their demand expectations for the second half of the year, due to the supply growth potential of countries such as Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited, and the inventory pressure in the 4th quarter will be greater than that in the 3rd quarter [6][7] - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected that oil prices will still have the potential to rise in the 3rd quarter, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] 2. Industry News - The US threatens to withdraw from the International Energy Agency [8] - US Energy Secretary Wright said that the US is considering innovative trading plans to replenish oil reserves [8] - Two sources revealed that Europe plans to contact Iran in the next few days and weeks, stating that if Iran takes measures to reassure the world about its nuclear program, it can avoid the automatic resumption of sanctions [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, etc., but does not list specific data values [10][12][18]

南华原油市场日报 ——美对俄制裁不及预期，原油冲高回落 2025年7月15日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 由于特朗普政府对乌克兰的军事支持及对俄制裁政策的实际成效未达预期，市场对于供应端收紧及俄乌局势升级的忧虑 显著缓解，国际油价应声下行。从需求端看，现实需求强势，美国炼厂开工率等指标及中国主营炼厂开工负荷 均处高位。中国的原油进口需求旺盛，中国6月原油进口4,988.8万吨，1-6月累计原油进口同比+1.4%，这 使得Dubai价格表现强势，也对当前油价提供了支撑。需要注意的是，中美需求已达峰值，未来增量有限且 将面临季节性回落， "现实与预期"存在矛盾，时间对多头不利。供应方面，即便OPEC+10月可能暂停增 产，9月美国需求将迎拐点，叠加前期增产落地的"长尾效应" ，原油基本面将逐步转弱，盘面上方空间有 限，压力随时间增强。潜在变量中，中东重大地缘事件或形成新交易逻辑，但影响周期短且爆发前难成多 头抓手；贸易谈判若不顺重启关税战，可能引发金融市场资金避险，对市场形成情绪冲击。总体而言，原 油盘面短线偏强但上方空间有限 ...

金十数据6月23日讯，多位知情人士表示，在此次美军针对伊朗核设施的军事行动中，与另外两处核设施不同，伊朗伊 斯法罕核设施并未遭B-2轰炸机投掷大型掩体炸弹。美国米德尔伯里国际研究学院的武器专家兼教授杰弗里·刘易斯仔细 研究了袭击地点的商业卫星图像后表示，该设施的受损似乎仅限于地面建筑。美总统特朗普美东时间21日宣布，美 军"成功打击"伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施。（央视） ·以色列总理称不会陷入消耗战 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/23 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025 ...