Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Jiu Xing Holdings (01836), adjusting profit forecasts based on the performance in the first half of 2025 and considering last year's high base effect and operational efficiency from new capacity deployment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to $160 million, $180 million, and $190 million, respectively, down from previous estimates of $180 million, $200 million, and $220 million [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are revised to $0.20, $0.21, and $0.23 for the same period, compared to earlier projections of $0.22, $0.24, and $0.26 [1] Group 2: Strategic Planning - The company is currently in a stable position, a direct result of its three-year plan (2023-2025), which aims to improve product category mix, diversify and expand the customer base, and optimize manufacturing base layout [1] - The company has set two main profit targets: achieving a 10% operating profit margin and a low double-digit annual growth rate in after-tax profit over the three-year period [1] - The company has already exceeded these targets in 2023 and 2024, expressing confidence in achieving them by the end of 2025 [1] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The company faces short-term challenges in profitability due to two main factors: a high base effect from customers advancing orders to meet demand before the Paris Olympics and operational efficiency issues related to increased capacity in Indonesia and the Philippines [2] - To meet demand and ensure customer goals, the company has shifted some production to a factory in Vietnam, resulting in increased costs, including overtime expenses [2] - Despite initial challenges, the company expects conditions to improve in the second half of the year [2] Group 4: Future Growth Plans - As the company prepares to finalize its next three-year plan (2026-2028), it remains on a growth trajectory [2] - The new plan includes an expansion of total capacity by 20 million pairs, achieved through increasing capacity at the new factory in Solo, Indonesia, starting operations at a second factory in Bangladesh, and accelerating the construction of a dedicated factory for its largest sports client in Indonesia [2] - Another focus of the upcoming three-year plan is the development of handbag and accessory manufacturing, which the company aims to establish as a significant long-term growth driver [2] - The company has recently acquired a small but experienced handbag factory in Vietnam to enhance product quality and production efficiency in its handbag business [2] - The next three-year plan will enable the company to meet cross-product category demands from brand customers, positioning itself as an ideal partner that combines high-quality standards with added value [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for Jiu Xing Holdings based on its performance in the first half of 2025, adjusting profit forecasts due to last year's high base effect and operational efficiency from new capacity deployment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are $160 million, $180 million, and $190 million, respectively, down from previous estimates of $180 million, $200 million, and $220 million [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $0.20, $0.21, and $0.23 for the same period, revised from $0.22, $0.24, and $0.26 [1] Group 2: Strategic Planning - The company is currently in a stable position, a direct result of its three-year plan (2023-2025), which aims to improve product category mix, diversify and expand the customer base, and optimize manufacturing base layout [1] - The company has set two main profit targets: achieving a 10% operating profit margin and a low double-digit annual growth rate in after-tax profits over the three-year period [1] - The company is confident in achieving these targets by the end of 2025, having already exceeded them in 2023 and 2024 [1] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The company faces short-term challenges in profitability due to two main factors: a high base effect from customers advancing orders to meet demand before the Paris Olympics and operational efficiency issues related to increased capacity in Indonesia and the Philippines [2] - To meet demand and ensure customer goals, the company has shifted some production to its factory in Vietnam, resulting in increased costs, including overtime expenses [2] - Despite initial challenges, the company expects conditions to improve in the second half of the year [2] Group 4: Future Growth Plans - As the company prepares to finalize its next three-year plan (2026-2028), it remains on a growth trajectory [2] - The new plan includes expanding total capacity by 20 million pairs, enhancing production at the new factory in Solo, Indonesia, launching operations at a second factory in Bangladesh, and accelerating the construction of a dedicated factory for its largest sports client in Indonesia [2] - Another focus of the upcoming three-year plan is to develop the handbag and accessories manufacturing business, which the company aims to establish as a significant long-term growth driver [2] - The company has recently acquired a small but experienced handbag factory in Vietnam to improve product quality and production efficiency in its handbag business [2] - The next three-year plan will enable the company to meet cross-product category demands from brand customers, positioning itself as an ideal partner that combines high-quality standards with added value [2]

Financial Performance - The group's revenue was flat for the first half of 2025, with a volume increase of 3.8% to 27.5 million pairs, primarily driven by the sports segment [4][5] - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 3.2% due to a higher proportion of sports products with lower ASP [5] - Operating profit margin fell to 10.9%, down 30 basis points, with net profit declining by 14.6% to $78 million [5][6] - Gross profit margin decreased by 22% compared to 25.6% last year, attributed to high labor costs and temporary efficiency issues in factories [6][9] Business Line Performance - Revenue from the sports segment increased by 8.2%, accounting for 48.5% of total manufacturing revenue, driven by higher shipments to major customers [16] - The luxury category reported a net decrease of 3.5%, while the CASM category declined by 9.2%, reflecting a strategic reallocation of capacity [17] - The company commenced shipments to new customers, including Under Armour and Justin Bieber's brand, Skylar, contributing to the sports segment's growth [15][16] Market Performance - North America and Europe accounted for 48.7% and 23.4% of total revenue, respectively, with China contributing 25% of manufacturing capacity [17][18] - The company anticipates sustained growth, with plans to scale up total capacity by an additional 21 to 26 million pairs through new factories [19] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focused on optimizing production efficiency and diversifying manufacturing capacity to align with customer needs [11][24] - A new three-year plan is being finalized, aiming for a 10% operating margin and low single-digit growth [22][24] - The company has received an MSCI ESG rating upgrade to AA, reflecting improvements in environmental performance [21] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects moderate increases in shipment volumes for the full year, with continued pressure on profit margins due to efficiency improvements [22][23] - The company is addressing operational challenges in Indonesia and the Philippines, with plans for a turnaround in the second half of the year [30][31] - Tariff impacts are anticipated to affect strategic customer partnerships, with a focus on optimizing operations [23][24] Other Important Information - The company declared a $0.52 interim dividend, maintaining a payout ratio above the previous year's [5][9] - A solid net cash balance of $291 million is reported, with plans for share repurchases or special dividends in the future [8][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on the handbag business and its recovery timeline? - The company acquired a small factory specializing in handbags to expand this segment, with expectations for gradual growth [28][29] Question: Any updates on the full-year outlook? - The outlook remains consistent with previous guidance, with expectations of $6 million to $7 million in tariff impacts [30][31] Question: Will margins return to normal levels? - Management aims to restore margins to normal levels by Q4 2026, learning from past expansion challenges [32][33] Question: What are the reasons for revenue declines in China and Europe? - Revenue declines are attributed to customer allocation decisions and pre-order impacts from the previous year [36] Question: Can you quantify the inefficiencies in the first half? - Inefficiencies related to the Philippines and Indonesia resulted in approximately $7 million in profit loss [45] Question: What are the conversations like with brand customers? - Brand customers are cautious but looking to innovate and consolidate suppliers amid tariff uncertainties [47][49] Question: How is the dividend and buyback strategy affected? - There are no changes to the dividend payout policy or capital return strategy, with plans for continued shareholder returns [89]