Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure but shows potential for improvement in emerging business profit margins [7] - The total transaction volume (GTV) for 2025 is projected at 31.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, with net income of 94.6 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.2% [7] - The company emphasizes long-term shareholder returns, with a total of 1.2 billion USD allocated for share buybacks and cash dividends, a 9% increase year-on-year [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - 2024: 93,457 million yuan - 2025: 94,580 million yuan - 2026E: 86,976 million yuan (down 8.04% year-on-year) - 2027E: 89,777 million yuan (up 3.22% year-on-year) - 2028E: 94,436 million yuan (up 5.19% year-on-year) [6][8] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 4,065 million yuan - 2025: 2,994 million yuan (down 26.35% year-on-year) - 2026E: 3,907 million yuan (up 30.50% year-on-year) - 2027E: 4,474 million yuan (up 14.51% year-on-year) - 2028E: 5,086 million yuan (up 13.68% year-on-year) [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 5.70% in 2024 to 6.37% in 2028 [6] Business Segment Performance - The real estate brokerage segment saw a decline in GTV, with a 4.2% drop in existing home transactions and an 8.2% drop in new home transactions for 2025 [7] - The home decoration and rental segments showed significant growth, with revenues increasing by 4.4% and 53% respectively, indicating improved profitability [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's market share is expected to continue increasing, with significant expansion in new business segments. Despite uncertainties in the real estate transaction market, the company's platform advantages and store expansion are driving market share growth. The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to drive secondary growth. The current stock price of HKD 60.0 corresponds to a PE ratio of 26.7/23.5/21.5 for 2025-2027, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue was HKD 31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations of HKD 28.8 billion. This was driven by better-than-expected property transaction volumes and new home fee rates. However, the non-GAAP net profit was HKD 1.34 billion, below expectations of HKD 1.77 billion due to lower gross margins and higher-than-expected expenses [7]. - The company's GTV for existing homes in Q4 2024 grew by 59.1% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 47.5%. The GTV for new homes increased by 49.3%, with revenue rising by 72.7%. The new business segments, including home decoration and rental services, saw revenue growth of 12.8% and 109%, respectively [7][8]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to HKD 7.33 billion and HKD 8.33 billion, down from previous estimates of HKD 8.98 billion and HKD 10.37 billion. A new forecast for 2027 projects a net profit of HKD 9.14 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.5%/+13.6%/+9.7% for 2025/2026/2027, respectively. The diluted EPS is projected at HKD 2.1/2.4/2.6 for the same years [6][10].