Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is the most accurate reflection of the real estate market's current state, and this perspective will continue to gain significance as new homes eventually become second-hand properties [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Beike's Q3 financial report revealed a net profit of 747 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.286 billion yuan, down 27.8% year-on-year [3]. - The total transaction volume for Beike's second-hand housing business reached 505.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, but revenue decreased by 3.6% to approximately 6 billion yuan [3]. - Beike's new housing business saw a transaction volume of 196.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.7%, with revenue dropping 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a price drop, leading to increased transaction volumes as buyers find better value, although revenue is declining due to a higher proportion of transactions coming from franchise stores [6][8]. - The overall real estate market is shrinking, impacting Beike's profitability despite its market dominance [7]. - The shift towards "fourth-generation residential" projects is reducing developers' reliance on intermediaries, leading to lower commission rates for agents [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Beike's non-real estate business, including home decoration and rental services, is performing well, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan and rental income growing by 45.3% to 5.7 billion yuan [8][9]. - The real estate industry is transitioning from a focus on property transactions to comprehensive residential services, indicating that Beike may expand its offerings to include furniture and appliances [10]. - Future home-buying decisions will increasingly prioritize living quality, rental yield, and property management, with older neighborhoods likely facing further depreciation [11][12].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.5 billion in Q3 2025, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 360 million, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 300 million, a decrease of 15% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7 billion, down 8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 700 million, down 26% year-on-year, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 720 million, down 18% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 36.83%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 15.3%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2] Brand and Channel Analysis - Brand performance: - Sophia: 1,793 dealers, 2,561 specialty stores; revenue of 6.35 billion from January to September 2025, with an average transaction value of 22,511 [2] - Milan: 528 dealers, 556 specialty stores; revenue of 300 million from January to September 2025, with an average transaction value of 17,662 [2] - Simmi: 132 dealers, 134 specialty stores [2] - Huahai: 222 dealers, 270 specialty stores; revenue of 81 million from January to September 2025 [2] - Channel performance: - Integrated channel: Revenue of 1.39 billion from January to September 2025, with 283 cooperative companies covering 221 cities and 728 sample stores [2] - Retail integrated business: 2,473 cooperative companies covering 1,482 markets and 2,375 sample stores [2] - Overseas channel: 29 overseas dealers covering 23 countries/regions, with partnerships for 132 projects in 32 countries/regions [3] Market Trends and Strategy - The domestic market is shifting from new housing to the existing housing market due to real estate adjustments, requiring the industry to focus on the existing housing sector over the next three to five years [3] - Consumer spending habits are changing, moving from traditional necessities to areas that provide emotional value, necessitating product development and marketing strategy adjustments [3] - The company remains optimistic about maintaining growth despite economic slowdowns, drawing on experiences from developed countries [3] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.05 billion, 1.16 billion, and 1.31 billion respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 13X, 11X, and 10X [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 earnings show steady improvement in profitability, with a revenue of 2.5 billion, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 360 million, an increase of 1% year-on-year [1] - The company is adjusting its profit forecast and maintains a "Buy" rating based on the performance in Q1-Q3 2025, expecting net profits of 1.05 billion, 1.16 billion, and 1.31 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13X, 11X, and 10X [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 7 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 700 million, a decrease of 26% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 36.83%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 15.3%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 13.16 billion and a circulating market capitalization of about 8.91 billion [6] Brand and Channel Analysis - The company operates several brands, including Sophia, Milan, and others, with a total of 1,793 distributors and 2,561 specialty stores for Sophia, generating a revenue of 6.35 billion from January to September 2025 [1][2] - The integrated decoration channel generated 1.39 billion in revenue from January to September 2025, with 283 cooperative decoration companies and 728 sample stores [2] Market Trends - The domestic market is shifting from new housing to the existing housing market, with a need for the industry to focus on the renovation sector over the next three to five years [3] - Consumer spending habits are changing, moving away from traditional needs to areas that provide emotional value, indicating a need for the industry to adapt its marketing strategies [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.837 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28 million yuan, down 25% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 6% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.787 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 102 million yuan, down 21% year-on-year [2][6] - The company is focusing on retail transformation and expects improvements in gross margins, with Q2 2025 gross margin increasing by 1.2 percentage points to 29.7% [6] Revenue Analysis - The company’s revenue decline is attributed to industry downturn and intensified competition, with specific product categories showing varied performance: sanitary ceramics down 13.3%, faucets up 0.7%, bathroom furniture up 1.5%, bathtubs down 20.4%, and tiles down 10% [6] - The smart toilet segment showed resilience, with a 4.2% increase in revenue to 660 million yuan, accounting for approximately 23.3% of total revenue [6] - The company is actively promoting dealer retail growth, with dealer retail revenue increasing by 4% year-on-year, while e-commerce and engineering channels saw declines [6] Profitability Analysis - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to product mix optimization and cost reduction efforts, with the smart toilet's revenue share increasing [6] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased slightly, reflecting the impact of reduced revenue on expense ratios [6] Market Opportunities - The company is focusing on the existing housing market, leveraging product, channel, and service strategies to capture growth opportunities [6] - Despite challenges in the North American market, the company is expanding its international business in emerging markets [6] Retail Strategy - The company plans to enhance its retail strategy in response to government subsidy policies, which are expected to stimulate demand for bathroom products [6] - A significant expansion of the store sales enhancement project is anticipated in H2 2025, aiming to improve customer engagement and sales conversion [6] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 231 million yuan, 325 million yuan, and 433 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 25, and 19 [6]

Core Insights - The home textile market is entering a traditional peak season, driven by the "light renovation" trend associated with existing housing transactions, as new home sales slow down and the second-hand housing market becomes dominant [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, new residential sales area decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing market maintained activity with an estimated transaction area increase of 4% [1] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions in key cities rose from 38% in 2020 to 66% in the first half of this year, with some second-tier cities exceeding 70% [1][3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The comprehensive promotion of the "mortgage transfer" policy has significantly reduced the traditional transaction cycle for second-hand homes from one month to 3-7 working days, enhancing transaction efficiency [3] - Urban renewal policies are expected to create substantial demand, with over 60,000 urban renewal projects planned for 2024, potentially driving consumption in home textiles and related products [3][4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Over 90% of second-hand home buyers in Beijing express a need for new renovations after purchase, with high replacement rates for curtains, bedding, and sofas due to various factors [3][5] - The primary driver for updates in home textiles is aesthetic differences, particularly among younger buyers aged 20-40, who prioritize personalized home styles [6][9] Group 4: Product Trends - The demand for home textiles is shifting from durable goods to scenario-based iterative products, with a focus on enhancing living quality through soft furnishings [5][9] - The replacement cycle for curtains has shortened from 5-8 years to 2-3 years, while sofa covers are now often replaced every 1-2 years, reflecting changing health awareness and aesthetic preferences [9][10] Group 5: Business Strategies - Home textile companies are adapting by focusing on sustainable and eco-friendly products, with a significant percentage of young consumers prioritizing green products [10][12] - Customization services are becoming more prevalent, catering to diverse housing types and specific consumer needs [10][12] - Companies are increasingly establishing community-based service channels to enhance customer engagement and service efficiency [12][13] Group 6: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing urban renewal process will continue to release renovation demands, presenting long-term opportunities for home textile companies to build capabilities aligned with the "renewal era" [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market is under pressure, with a year-on-year decline in real estate development investment of 10.3% from January to April 2025, and 64 cities experiencing a month-on-month decline in April [1][3] - New housing sales area decline has narrowed, with first-tier cities' prices remaining stable, indicating a diverging market [1][3] - The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery as policies are released, with a decrease in new construction area potentially leading to reduced future new housing supply [1][4] Company Performance: Beike Zhaofang - Beike Zhaofang reported a Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of approximately 844 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with total revenue growing by 37% [1][6] - The core business saw a growth rate of 28%, with the existing home business benefiting from an increase in market share [1][6] - The new home business GTV growth rate reached 53%, with a significant increase in market share [1][6] Home Decoration Business - Beike's home decoration business revenue growth reached 22%, with a gross margin close to 33% [1][7] - The company achieved breakeven in its home decoration business at the city level for the first time in April, attributed to an increase in the proportion of hard decoration sales and improved procurement ratios [1][7] - The collective procurement price decreased by over 20%, enhancing operational efficiency [1][7] Rental Business - The rental business of Beike Zhaofang grew by 90% year-on-year, with the number of managed properties exceeding 500,000 [1][9] - The gross margin for the rental business has further improved, indicating a solid foundation in the brokerage business [1][9] Use of AI Technology - Beike Zhaofang extensively utilizes AI technology to optimize its home decoration service processes, significantly reducing contract signing time from approximately 10 days to about 6 days [1][10] - The implementation of an intelligent construction system allows for online inspections, improving efficiency and customer satisfaction [1][10] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The home decoration industry is shifting focus from new homes to existing homes, with leading companies collaborating with custom soft decoration firms to address consumer pain points [2][13] - The existing home market is expected to grow, with Beike leveraging its traffic advantages to capture a larger market share [2][14] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, with management focusing on optimizing business performance in response to external market pressures [1][15][16] Conclusion - The real estate and home decoration industries are undergoing significant transformations, with Beike Zhaofang positioned to capitalize on these changes through strategic partnerships, technological advancements, and a focus on existing home markets [1][2][14][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's market share is expected to continue increasing, with significant expansion in new business segments. Despite uncertainties in the real estate transaction market, the company's platform advantages and store expansion are driving market share growth. The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to drive secondary growth. The current stock price of HKD 60.0 corresponds to a PE ratio of 26.7/23.5/21.5 for 2025-2027, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue was HKD 31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations of HKD 28.8 billion. This was driven by better-than-expected property transaction volumes and new home fee rates. However, the non-GAAP net profit was HKD 1.34 billion, below expectations of HKD 1.77 billion due to lower gross margins and higher-than-expected expenses [7]. - The company's GTV for existing homes in Q4 2024 grew by 59.1% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 47.5%. The GTV for new homes increased by 49.3%, with revenue rising by 72.7%. The new business segments, including home decoration and rental services, saw revenue growth of 12.8% and 109%, respectively [7][8]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to HKD 7.33 billion and HKD 8.33 billion, down from previous estimates of HKD 8.98 billion and HKD 10.37 billion. A new forecast for 2027 projects a net profit of HKD 9.14 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.5%/+13.6%/+9.7% for 2025/2026/2027, respectively. The diluted EPS is projected at HKD 2.1/2.4/2.6 for the same years [6][10].