1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core View - In October, the bond market may face a dilemma of more negatives than positives. Negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus boosting credit expansion expectations, intensifying anti - inefficiency efforts, and market waiting for the official implementation of the public fund new regulations. Positives may include economic slowdown boosting easing expectations, lower - than - expected fiscal stimulus, and the central bank restarting bond purchases. Currently, short - term monetary easing is unlikely. Overall, in October, the bond market may stabilize after risk clearing, but a rebound may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is recommended to wait patiently for better bond allocation opportunities, possibly in the second half of Q4 [11][12] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: With little change in fundamentals and funding, the stock - bond seesaw continued. The decline of A - shares boosted long - term bonds, and most treasury bond futures closed higher [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds fluctuated narrowly. The medium - and long - term yields declined within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.754%, down 0.45bp [9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 236 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index was stable, short - term funding rates fluctuated narrowly, the 7 - day rate rose 0.55bp to 1.4225%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 2bp to 1.65% [10] 3.2 Industry News - **Sino - US Trade**: The US said whether to impose 100% tariffs on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the US to correct its wrong practices. China opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices on technology transfer [13] - **China's Financial Data**: In September, M2 increased 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased 7.2% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap hit a new low this year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. China's foreign trade maintained growth, with the import and export value in Q3 increasing by 6% year - on - year and 8% in September [14] - **Rare Earth and Other News**: China's export control measures on rare earths are in line with international practices. The US may extend the tariff suspension period in exchange for China delaying rare earth export controls. US President Trump will visit Japan at the end of October and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [15] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It includes information on treasury bond futures trading data, main contract inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and main contract trends [6][16][17] - **Money Market**: It shows data on inter - bank pledged repo weighted rates, SHIBOR term structure and trends [25][28][33] - **Derivatives Market**: It presents Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) [37][38]

Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The bond market sentiment remains weak due to various negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations. In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. It is expected to stabilize after the negatives are cleared, but a rebound may need the re - warming of easing expectations. The optimal allocation opportunity for the bond market may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter [11][12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: In the afternoon, the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, causing all treasury bond futures to turn down. Most yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market edged up slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rising 0.45bp to 1.757% by 16:30 [8][9] - **Funds Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 150 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 43.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 106.5 billion yuan. The short - term fund rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable [10] - **Conclusion**: Although the economic data in September weakened marginally, it had limited impact on the market. The bond market may face more negatives in October, but it is expected to stabilize after the negatives are cleared. The optimal allocation opportunity may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter [11][12] 2. Industry News - China has officially imposed special port fees on US ships starting today [13] - China's total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first three quarters reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The growth rate accelerated quarter by quarter [14] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30 in Beijing [14] - The issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has been successfully completed [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on October 15, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Money Market**: Mentions the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Includes the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share market's intraday adjustment boosts risk aversion, leading to a full - scale rise in Treasury bond futures. Bank - to - bank major - term spot - rate Treasury bond yields mostly decline slightly, and the money market remains stable and loose at the beginning of the month. The bond market sentiment is still weak due to various negative factors, but it may stabilize in October after risk clearance. The counter - offensive phase may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is advisable to wait patiently for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the middle to late fourth quarter [8][9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: A - share's intraday adjustment boosts risk aversion, and Treasury bond futures rise across the board. Bank - to - bank major - term spot - rate Treasury bond yields mostly decline slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 yield dropping 0.7bp to 1.754% by 16:30. The money market is stable and loose at the beginning of the month. The central bank conducts a net injection of 91 billion yuan, short - term money rates mostly fall, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rises slightly [8][9][10]. - **Conclusion**: In October, the bond market may face more negatives than positives. However, it may enter a window period for risk clearance after negative factors are realized and is expected to stabilize. The counter - offensive may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is recommended to wait for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may occur in the middle to late fourth quarter [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - China officially imposes special port fees on US ships starting today. - Trump hints at canceling new tariffs on China. - China's total goods trade imports and exports in the first three quarters reach 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase, with accelerating quarterly growth. - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th. - The issuance of the 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds in 2025 is successfully completed [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It includes data on Treasury bond futures trading, such as contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests. It also involves data on the spreads between different Treasury bond futures contracts (inter - term and inter - variety spreads) and the trends of major Treasury bond futures contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: It presents data on the money market, including the changes in the weighted average rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the trends of SHIBOR [24][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [36].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Although the economic data released in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With multiple negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the sentiment in the bond market remained weak. [11] - In October, the bond market may face a situation of more negatives than positives. Negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus potentially boosting credit expansion expectations, the resurgence of anti - involution, and the uncertainty of the official implementation of the new public - fund regulations. Positives may include economic data slowdown, lower - than - expected fiscal stimulus, and the central bank restarting bond purchases, but monetary easing is difficult to implement. [11][12] - In October, after the negatives are gradually digested, the bond market is expected to stabilize. However, a rally may require the re - warming of easing expectations, which could be triggered by factors such as weakening fundamentals or deterioration in trade negotiations. It is recommended to wait patiently for better bond - allocation opportunities, which may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Due to the escalation of Sino - US frictions over the weekend, the risk - aversion sentiment was boosted, and treasury bond futures opened higher and rose in the morning session. In the afternoon, as the A - share market recovered, the gains of treasury bond futures narrowed. [8] - The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities increased, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term maturities, mostly around 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.759%, up 1.6bp. [9] - At the beginning of the month, the funds were stable and abundant. There were no reverse - repurchase maturities today, and the central bank injected 137.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank fund sentiment index was stable, and short - term fund rates showed mixed movements. The overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.5bp to 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 3bp to 1.61% compared with last weekend. [10] 3.1.2 Conclusion - The bond market sentiment remains weak. In October, the bond market may face more negatives than positives, but it is expected to stabilize after the negatives are digested. The rally may require the re - warming of easing expectations. It is recommended to wait for better bond - allocation opportunities, which may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter. [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs recently announced export controls on relevant rare - earth items, stating that it is a proper measure to improve the export - control system in accordance with laws and regulations. [13] - China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, including charging special port fees for US - related ships starting from October 14, aiming to maintain a fair competition environment in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets. [13] - US Vice - President Vance signaled a relaxation regarding Trump's latest tariff threat, saying that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China. [14] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months, and he is open to a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in future meetings. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that labor - market weakness and inflation slowdown led to the interest - rate cut last month and signaled possible further cuts. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on October 13, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. [6] - **Money Market**: It includes information on the SHIBOR term - structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged - repurchase weighted - rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase rate change. [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) is provided. [35]

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is weak, and treasury bond futures have fallen across the board. Although the economic data released in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With multiple negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the public - fund new regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the bond market sentiment remains weak. In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. However, it may enter a window period for risk clearance after the negatives are realized, and the bond market is expected to stabilize. The counter - offensive phase may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations, and the optimal allocation opportunity may appear in the middle and late fourth quarter [8][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Market sentiment is weak, and treasury bond futures have fallen across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market show short - term increases and long - term decreases, with narrow fluctuations in the medium - to - long - term. By 16:30, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250011 reported 1.7725%, down 0.5bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds are stable and loose. There were 600 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank injected 409 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 191 billion yuan. The inter - bank fund sentiment index is stable, and most short - term fund rates have declined. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits decreased by 0.87bp to 1.3184%, the 7 - day rate dropped 8.44bp to 1.4229%, and the medium - to - long - term funds eased. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped about 8bp compared with before the holiday to 1.58% [10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market may still be in a difficult situation with more negatives than positives in October. After the negatives are realized, it may enter a risk - clearing window period and is expected to stabilize. The counter - offensive may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations, and it is recommended to wait patiently for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the middle and late fourth quarter [11][12] 2. Industry News - The front page of Economic Information Daily states that the fourth quarter is a critical period for the annual economic finish and a crucial window for policy implementation. Relevant departments will introduce a series of policies to expand effective investment, high - level opening - up, and corporate innovation. Policies such as promoting private investment and expanding the scope of encouraged foreign investment are expected to be introduced in the fourth quarter [13] - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays this year, the consumer market showed good growth. Domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared with the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The average daily sales revenue of the national consumer - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Among them, commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively, and digital products and automobile consumption grew rapidly [13] - According to the Financial Times, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has completed the final round of interviews for the candidate of the Federal Reserve Chairman. Donald Trump will make a final decision among four top candidates: former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, current Governor Christopher Waller, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder [13] - China has made solid progress in extraterritorial jurisdiction. The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on relevant overseas rare - earth items and rare - earth - related technologies, and included 14 foreign entities such as anti - drone technology companies in the unreliable entity list. The Ministry of Commerce, together with the General Administration of Customs, also issued four announcements to implement export controls on super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment, raw materials and accessories, some medium - and heavy - rare - earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides data on treasury bond futures trading on October 10, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and open - interest change [6] - **Other Data**: It also includes information on the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, the weighted interest - rate changes of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase, and the fixed - rate curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [29][33][35]