本报告谨提供给建信期货有限责任公司（以下简称本公司）的特定客户及其他专业人士。本公司不因接 收人收到本报告而视其为客户。 本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含 的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。本公司力求报告内容的客观、公正，但报告中的观点、结论和建议仅 供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者应当充分考虑自身特定状况，并完 整理解和使用本报告内容，不应视本报告为做出投资决策的唯一因素。对依据或者使用本报告所造成的 一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 免责申明 （来源：建信期货研究服务） 建信期货研究服务 国债：市场环境改善，宽松预期再起，逢调做多 集运：春节前出货潮预期开始发酵或带动淡季04合约高估，关注02-04正套 股指：震荡整理阶段，或以时间换空间 钢材：冲高回落，有低位反弹诉求 焦炭：探低回升，走低空间不大，关注下游补库节奏 焦煤：探低回升，等待企稳，关注下游补库节奏 铁矿：基本面整体仍有压力，在前期宽幅震荡区间内波动运行 原油：俄乌局势持续缓和，空头思路操作 沥青：基差回归，震荡运行 工业硅：现货价格重新松动，窄幅运行 ...

——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，全年经济增长目标基本完成，从高频数据看 Q4 经济增速或进一步 放缓。尽管此前新型政策性金融工具和政府债务结存限额完成下达，目前对 11 月建筑领域高频数据的影响仍然较小。 海外方面，美联储 12 月或跳过降息，一旦如此美股或仍有调整压力并对国内 产生连带影响。9 月非农新增数据已非重要因素，而 10-11 月非农数据将合并 与 12 月 FOMC 后发布，10 月议息会议纪要显示美联储对 12 月降息存在严重 分歧。爱泼斯坦事件再次发酵，关注后续发展，警惕该事件导致美国各界巨震 的可能性。 资产方面，预计 12 月国内投资机构开始布局 2026 年，关于 2026 年配置方向 的两点思考：第一，明年 2 月确定美联储主席人选至 5 月上任必然带来强烈的 宽松预期，或助推美股重回牛市并带动国内科技行情；第二，明年 Q2 平减指 数大概率转正，或将正式开启通胀行情。 定期报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 静待花开 相关报告 1、《非农企稳，但前景仍存隐 忧——2025 年 9 月美国就业数 据分析》2025-11-21 2、《年 ...

来源：中国黄金网 对于黄金市场而言，近期重要影响因素仍需关注以下几方面： 编辑|焦扬 版式|焦扬 视觉|张宗伟 校对|王蓓 审读|倪金合 3.延迟经济数据成关键变量，美国9月非农就业等延迟数据本周密集发布，市场预期非农新增就业6.5万 人左右，失业率4.3%，数据表现将直接影响降息预期。 4.全球央行购金提供长期支撑，中长期将继续支撑金价。 展望本周，国际金价大概率呈震荡偏强走势，核心逻辑仍为地缘避险与宽松预期双重支撑。从技术面来 看，下方3990美元/盎司一线支撑强劲，若站稳4055美元/盎司，有望再度冲击4080~4100美元/盎司。若 跌破关键支撑，或测试3950美元/盎司。需警惕数据与货币政策观点引发的短期波动，整体波动区间预 计在3950~4100美元/盎司。 （以上内容不构成投资建议或操作指南，为作者本人观点，不代表本平台立场） 1.地缘局势将持续托底，区域冲突潜在风险为国际金价提供稳定避险支撑，短期难有实质性缓和。 2.美联储政策博弈主导波动，本周将公布10月货币政策会议纪要及核心官员讲话，市场聚焦通胀判断与 降息时点讨论。当前12月降息概率已跌至44%，纪要与讲话将进一步校准市场预期。 ...

Group 1: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index attempted to break 100 for the second time, with the first attempt occurring at the end of July 2025, followed by a significant drop due to disappointing non-farm payroll data on August 1[3] - The current macroeconomic environment differs significantly from July, with a lack of economic data and a hawkish stance from Powell leading to a "self-driving" market[4] - In July, the British pound experienced the largest decline among G7 currencies due to ongoing economic weakness in the UK, while this time the Japanese yen is leading the decline following Japan's monetary easing policies[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The current attempt to break 100 is expected to be more successful than in July, with potential for higher rebound points and longer duration[5] - However, the dollar is not entering a long-term appreciation cycle; it is merely experiencing a rebound[5] - Short-term market expectations are pricing in a greater than 30% probability of no interest rate cuts in December, indicating significant room for policy expectation adjustments[5] - The upcoming announcement of the Federal Reserve chair by the White House is anticipated to negatively impact the dollar[5] - Long-term, the Fed is still in a rate-cutting cycle, and ongoing U.S. debt issues alongside European fiscal measures remain critical concerns[5] - The dollar's rebound may assist in stabilizing gold and silver prices and help equity markets adjust to high valuations[5] - Risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[5]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Shanghai gold futures price is currently at 942.28 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.77%. The opening price today was 927.66 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 948.00 CNY and a low of 923.62 CNY [1] - International gold price closed at 4097.59 USD per ounce, down 0.63%, after dipping to 4000 USD intraday before rebounding. Long-term support is expected due to easing expectations and risk events, while short-term risks of a pullback exist ahead of the APEC meeting, with support at 4000 USD [4] Group 2: Silver Market - The international silver price closed at 48.501 USD per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.35%. The market is experiencing a strong external demand supported by ETF inflows, while domestic industrial demand remains weak, indicating a mixed market condition [6] - Short-term downward pressure is anticipated due to liquidity disturbances, with support around 47 USD [7] Group 3: Macro Environment - Concerns over escalating international trade disputes have intensified due to renewed discussions on export controls by the White House. Disappointing corporate earnings reports are also putting pressure on the market [2] - The Federal Reserve is actively engaging in discussions about the integration of traditional finance with digital assets, focusing on four key topics, including stablecoin business models and the application of AI in payments. The Fed's governor, Waller, indicated a shift in perception towards the DeFi sector, suggesting a more welcoming approach to payment innovations [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - The main gold futures price in Shanghai is reported at 942.28 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.77% [1] - The opening price for the day was 927.66 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 948.00 CNY and a low of 923.62 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro News - Concerns over intensified international trade disputes have increased due to new export control discussions from the White House, alongside disappointing corporate earnings impacting the market [1] - The Federal Reserve held a Fintech conference discussing the integration of traditional finance with digital assets, stablecoin business models, AI in payments, and tokenized products [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the DeFi sector is no longer viewed with skepticism, and the Fed is open to payment innovations, proposing a "streamlined master account" concept for non-bank payment companies [1] Group 3: Institutional Views on Gold - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and a national debt exceeding 38 trillion USD, along with the complex situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to a decrease in market risk appetite [2] Group 4: Silver Market Performance - The international silver price closed at 48.501 USD per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.35% [5] - The silver market is supported by rising expectations of Federal Reserve easing, overseas physical demand, and ETF inflows, although domestic industrial demand remains weak, indicating a mixed market condition [4] Group 5: Price Support Levels - The international gold price closed at 4097.59 USD per ounce, down 0.63%, with a rebound after testing the 4000 USD level, which is seen as a support point [3] - Short-term pressures on silver prices are expected due to liquidity disturbances, with support around 47 USD [6]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core View - In October, the bond market may face a dilemma of more negatives than positives. Negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus boosting credit expansion expectations, intensifying anti - inefficiency efforts, and market waiting for the official implementation of the public fund new regulations. Positives may include economic slowdown boosting easing expectations, lower - than - expected fiscal stimulus, and the central bank restarting bond purchases. Currently, short - term monetary easing is unlikely. Overall, in October, the bond market may stabilize after risk clearing, but a rebound may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is recommended to wait patiently for better bond allocation opportunities, possibly in the second half of Q4 [11][12] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: With little change in fundamentals and funding, the stock - bond seesaw continued. The decline of A - shares boosted long - term bonds, and most treasury bond futures closed higher [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds fluctuated narrowly. The medium - and long - term yields declined within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.754%, down 0.45bp [9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 236 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index was stable, short - term funding rates fluctuated narrowly, the 7 - day rate rose 0.55bp to 1.4225%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 2bp to 1.65% [10] 3.2 Industry News - **Sino - US Trade**: The US said whether to impose 100% tariffs on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the US to correct its wrong practices. China opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices on technology transfer [13] - **China's Financial Data**: In September, M2 increased 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased 7.2% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap hit a new low this year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. China's foreign trade maintained growth, with the import and export value in Q3 increasing by 6% year - on - year and 8% in September [14] - **Rare Earth and Other News**: China's export control measures on rare earths are in line with international practices. The US may extend the tariff suspension period in exchange for China delaying rare earth export controls. US President Trump will visit Japan at the end of October and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [15] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It includes information on treasury bond futures trading data, main contract inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and main contract trends [6][16][17] - **Money Market**: It shows data on inter - bank pledged repo weighted rates, SHIBOR term structure and trends [25][28][33] - **Derivatives Market**: It presents Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) [37][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market rebound driven by tariff black swan events, with a decline in risk appetite. The continuous expectation of Fed rate cuts and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly updated economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% increase rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% month - on - month decrease and a 4.55% decrease rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a 0.81% increase rate [10] - Daily updated economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.68, with a 0.36 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.36% decrease rate; The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1274, with a 0.015 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.21% decrease rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.41, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.63% decrease rate; DR007 is 1.42, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 1.01% decrease rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 point month - on - month increase and a 1.49% increase rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.38% decrease rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 point month - on - month increase and a 0.38% decrease rate [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentions related charts such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc [12][16][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The text mentions related charts such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and the local bond issuance situation [26] 4. Spread Overview - The text mentions related charts such as the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [26] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [30][33][41] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [43][50] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [51][52] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][60][64]

Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The bond market sentiment remains weak due to various negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations. In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. It is expected to stabilize after the negatives are cleared, but a rebound may need the re - warming of easing expectations. The optimal allocation opportunity for the bond market may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter [11][12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: In the afternoon, the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, causing all treasury bond futures to turn down. Most yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market edged up slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rising 0.45bp to 1.757% by 16:30 [8][9] - **Funds Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 150 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 43.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 106.5 billion yuan. The short - term fund rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable [10] - **Conclusion**: Although the economic data in September weakened marginally, it had limited impact on the market. The bond market may face more negatives in October, but it is expected to stabilize after the negatives are cleared. The optimal allocation opportunity may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter [11][12] 2. Industry News - China has officially imposed special port fees on US ships starting today [13] - China's total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first three quarters reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The growth rate accelerated quarter by quarter [14] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30 in Beijing [14] - The issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has been successfully completed [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on October 15, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Money Market**: Mentions the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Includes the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

Group 1 - The current global financial market narrative is driven by two main themes: escalating US-China trade tensions and a clear dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy [1] - The US-China trade conflict has intensified, with both sides imposing reciprocal port fees on shipping companies, particularly targeting vessels flying the US flag [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a preference for at least two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year due to risks from a slowing US labor market [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding policy paths has increased due to the US government shutdown and delays in official data, with markets grappling with rising trade risks and expectations of Fed easing [4] - Gold prices are being supported by heightened risk aversion from the trade war and increased attractiveness due to rate cut expectations [4] - The US dollar is experiencing dual influences from safe-haven flows and easing expectations, which may put pressure on the dollar if rate cut expectations continue to rise [5][7] Group 3 - US equities are facing pressure from trade concerns, particularly in technology and growth stocks, with potential for prolonged market stress if tensions escalate [6] - The S&P 500 index is under scrutiny, with a critical level at 6700 points; sustained pressure below this level could trigger broader risk aversion [12] - Gold is experiencing upward momentum driven by trade tensions and geopolitical risks, with key resistance at the 4180–4200 dollar range and support at 4100 dollars [15]