朋友们，今天大洋彼岸又传来一个里程碑式的消息。就在昨夜，美股道琼斯指数历史上首次收在了 49000点之上，标普500指数也同步创出历史新高。要知道，这距离上次我们聊到它创新高，才过去没几 天。一边是地缘政治的消息频频占据头条，另一边是美股市场仿佛置身事外，自顾自地向上攀登。我是 帮主郑重，一个看了市场二十年起伏的老兵。今天咱们不单纯羡慕，而是来拆解一下，美股这场在疑虑 中前行的"狂欢"，到底能给我们A股投资者带来哪些实实在在的启示。 我们先看看这轮上涨的核心驱动力是什么。答案很清晰：科技股，特别是与人工智能深度绑定的板块， 重拾了领导力。像美光科技这样的存储芯片巨头，单日涨幅就超过了10%，年初至今已涨了约18%。这 强烈地提醒我们，只要人工智能的产业浪潮没有停歇，围绕其展开的硬件、软件和应用投资，就始终是 市场最核心、最具弹性的发动机。美股如此，A股亦然。我们的市场里，那些真正在AI算力、应用落地 上有硬核实力的公司，其长期逻辑同样坚不可摧。 总而言之，道指站上49000点，既是美国市场的故事，也是一面值得我们观照自身的镜子。它照见的是 对创新的追捧，对未来的乐观，以及在复杂环境中聚焦核心矛盾的定力。A股有 ...

- The macro scoring model is optimistic about Chinese bonds, US stocks, copper, and crude oil[24] - The US stock timing model indicates a potential strengthening of US stocks driven by an upward revision in rate cut expectations[25] - The gold timing model remains positive on gold, with the latest indicator value at -0.51, slightly improved from the previous month[27] - The crude oil timing model maintains a cautious view, with the latest crude oil sentiment index reading at -0.05, remaining below the zero axis[33] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34]

风险提示：中债-30年期国债财富(总值)指数(代码:CBA21801)来源于中债金融估值中心有限公司("中 债")。本基金为被动投资的交易型开放式指数基金，主要采用抽样复制策略，跟踪标的指数市场表现， 具有与标的指数所表征的市场相似的风险收益特征。投资者投资于本基金面临标的指数回报与相应市场 平均回报偏离、标的指数波动、跟踪误差控制未达约定目标、标的指数变更、指数编制机构停止服务、 成份券停牌或违约等潜在风险。本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投 资、兑付责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定 盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构 成对本基金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品 资料概要等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产品情况及销售机构适当性意见 的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基 金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 截至2025年12月30日 09:50，30年国债E ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][51]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of monetary easing continues, leading to a sustained increase in gold prices. As of December 26, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4,562 per ounce, a 4.4% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 1.8% increase to 1,071 tons. The U.S. unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.5%. The U.S. November unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while the unadjusted core CPI rose 2.6%, below the expected 3%. These economic data points enhance expectations for monetary easing, which may drive gold prices higher in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [3][4][6]. - Industrial Metals: The financial attribute pricing weight is accelerating, and there is optimism for an upward trend in industrial metal prices [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metal Index Trends - As of December 26, 2025, the non-ferrous metal index (000819.SH) closed at 9,309.86 points, a 6.3% increase month-on-month. The precious metal index (801053.SI) closed at 24,539.60 points, up 4.1%. The industrial metal index (801055.SI) closed at 3,433.59 points, up 7.1%. The energy metal index (399366.SZ) closed at 2,752.26 points, up 6.0%. During the same period, the CSI 300 index rose 1.95% [9]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - The report highlights the ongoing monetary easing expectations and the resulting upward trend in gold prices, with specific data on price movements and ETF holdings [3][4]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - As of December 26, SHFE copper futures rose 5.95% to 98,720 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 193,600 tons, an increase of 27,800 tons month-on-month. LME copper inventory stood at 157,000 tons. The report indicates that the price elasticity of copper is accelerating due to the increased financial attribute pricing weight and tightening expectations in the fundamental outlook [5][6]. 3.2 Aluminum - As of December 26, SHFE aluminum futures rose 1.0% to 22,405 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 617,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month-on-month. The report notes that the macroeconomic environment is supportive of aluminum prices, which are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation [5][6]. 3.3 Tin - As of December 26, SHFE tin futures fell 1.3% to 338,600 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory increased by 186 tons to 9,378 tons. The report mentions supply concerns due to geopolitical issues affecting the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia, leading to a tightening trend in the tin market [5][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties enhance its safe-haven attributes. For copper, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and there is a long-term demand space opening up globally. For aluminum, the supply-demand dynamics are expected to accelerate, leading to potential price increases [6][48].

铜冠金源期货指出，特朗普或在1月初公布新任美联储主席人选，为明年延续宽松预期奠定基础，鲍威 尔或在明年5月卸任后提前辞去理事，美元指数跌破98一线提振金属市场；基本面来看，全球矿端干扰 率持续上升，非美地区货源相对紧缺，明年一季度国内精铜难有增产空间，预计铜价短期将维持高位偏 强走势。 华联期货分析称，铜价飙升带动全球主要矿业公司股价在盘前交易中普遍上涨，形成期现联动行情。虽 然铜价大涨以后，下游需求趋向谨慎，但供需面向好趋势强化市场投机氛围，预计近期市场继续保持强 势。操作上建议中线多单适当获利减仓，短线滚动做多，中期沪铜2602参考支撑区间上移至92000- 93000元/吨。 12月25日，根据调研的国内56家电解铜交易企业(含冶炼厂、贸易商、下游加工企业)，当日电解铜现货 成交量为1.77万吨，较上个交易日增加0.12万吨，环比增加7.43%。 后市来看，沪铜期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 12月26日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪铜期货价格强势攀升，一举突破99000元/吨大 关，再创历史新高。截至发稿，沪铜主力报99280.00元，涨幅达4.19%。 据了解，CSPT于12 ...

核心驱动不变 黄金牛市未改 宽松预期白热化 黄金将再创新高 当前市场美联储新任主席成为市场关注焦点，特朗普已经明牌，美联储需要大幅降低利率水平，而且美联储在执行货币政策时候需要咨询特朗普的意见。 这将出现两个局面:一方面是美联储主席候选人在特朗普面世时，将进一步大幅降息作为"投名状"，另一方面，美联储将再无独立性可言。 无论出现哪种情况，降息或美联储独立性受损，均不利于美元信用，黄金延续牛市也就顺理成章。 就目前来看，虽然特朗普的关税战已告一段落，美国同全球多个国家或者经济体达成了贸易协议，但是在这个过程当中，以东大为主的国家在国际贸易结 算中，有意减少美元结算比例，增加非美货币结算比例。当前全球贸易摩擦虽然已经趋缓，但美元的信用也在本轮贸易摩擦中遭受重大打击。 除了贸易争端，美国日益攀升的债务水平也是市场担忧的风险之一。目前美国国债规模已超过38万亿美元，每年利息支出接近1.2万亿美元。更关键的 是，美国政府停摆已经成为常态化，美国政府除了发行更多的国债别无他法。在巨大的风险压力下，美国经济摇摇欲坠，美元指数恐怕难以独善其身。 基于美元信用受损的背景，全球多数国家央行去美元化趋势显著，纷纷将美元外汇储备转为 ...

期货行情与成交量： 贵金属日报 | 2025-12-23 宽松预期持续演绎 贵金属继续走强 市场分析 美联储理事米兰表示，如果美联储明年不继续降息，可能面临引发经济衰退的风险。他还表示，预计短期内不会 出现经济下行，但失业率上升应促使美联储官员继续降息。关于新任美联储主席，美国总统特朗普将在明年1月第 一周指定选出；而特朗普此前表示，他希望选择一位支持增长友好型货币政策的继任者。地缘方面，欧盟决定将 针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延长6个月，至2026年7月31日。制裁措施覆盖贸易、金融、能源、技术及军民两用物项、 工业、交通运输等多领域。此外，欧盟推出针对规避制裁行为的专项反制措施。 2025-12-22，沪金主力合约开于979.90元/克，收于1000.86元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动2.14%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于999.36元/克，收于1003.08元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.22%。 2025-12-22，沪银主力合约开于15374.00元/千克，收于16210.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动5.42%。当日成交 量为1704712手，持仓量为3 ...

综合来看，隔夜市场行情标志着交易主线正在切换。投资者的关注点从"通胀有多顽固"转向"经济有多 疲软"，美联储的政策预期成为所有资产定价的"锚"。短期内的市场焦点将集中于美联储官员对最新数 据的表态，以及地缘局势局势会否进一步升级。对于国内市场而言，隔夜海外交易出的"衰退预 期"与"宽松预期"组合，或将对风险偏好产生复杂影响，而海南自贸港封关、L3级自动驾驶商用许可落 地等国内产业政策的实质性推进，则可能成为抵御外围波动、寻找结构性机会的关键线索。 （注：本文为原创分析，核心观点基于公开信息及市场推导，以上观点仅供参考，不做为入市依据 ） 长江有色金属网 隔夜全球市场清晰地传递出一个核心信号：对经济增长的担忧正在取代通胀恐惧，成为主导资产价格的 关键变量。这一转变由一份"矛盾"的美国就业报告触发。11月非农新增人数温和增长，但失业率攀升至 4.6%的三年高位，叠加前值的大幅下修，共同描绘出劳动力市场实质性放缓的图景。市场将此解读为 美联储开启降息周期的"绿灯"，政策转向预期因此强化，并引发了跨资产类别的连锁反应。美元指数因 此延续弱势震荡。其背后的逻辑在于，疲软的经济数据（尤其是失业率跳升）直接强化了市场对美联 ...

当然，12月美联储"鹰派降息"也没帮上忙，证据是美债长端利率还在上行，扩表的直接外溢效果有限比12月降息更重要的事。 所以，给定整体信用周期拐点的大背景+短期政策增量预期没能兑现+美联储宽松也没帮上忙+还有其他如基准变化可能导致调仓的扰动等等流动 性的新变化，四季度以来的弱势，并不完全意外。 年底是政策空窗期，这周还有日央行加息，所以先得过去这几个事件，然后再看新的催化剂。针对上面的几个因素：宽松预期看明年初美联储新 主席提名，需求增量看美国财政发力进度，内部看我们政策的进展如近期频繁提及的消费和扩大内需政策。 这两天AH两地市场连续大幅回调，港股恒指跌破120天半年线，回踩30周线，恒科更是跌破250天年线。回想起来，上周五的大涨倒是一度让很多 人感觉到"意外"，找不到直接的催化剂，以为漏掉了什么关键信息。 近期的弱势意外么？我们在9月就提示四季度信用周期将拐点向下，除非政策大举发力。信用周期拐点不一定马上导致市场回调，但会约束市场上 行空间，如果还叠加了一些资金面和外部扰动，就会导致情绪收缩的回调局面，这也是我们一直维持恒指今年点位26,000没有再上调的原因 中美 信用周期或再迎拐点。只不过，当时预期还 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure, fluctuating below $4200, with limited upward momentum despite a lack of strong bearish sentiment. Improved market risk appetite and a modest recovery of the dollar have weakened gold's safe-haven support, although expectations for monetary easing provide some support for gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent economic data has reinforced expectations for monetary easing, with November private sector employment unexpectedly decreasing by 32,000, contrasting sharply with previous growth. This has led the market to anticipate a 25 basis point cut in policy rates next week [3]. - The low interest rate environment enhances the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold, and with limited dollar rebound, gold's medium-term support structure remains relatively solid [3]. - Investor caution due to external uncertainties has limited deep corrections in gold prices, with market focus shifting to the upcoming PCE price index to gauge future policy direction [3]. Group 2: Trading Dynamics - Weekly jobless claims and corporate layoff data are expected to provide short-term volatility, but their impact is deemed limited. The overall market focus remains on inflation resilience and policy pace [3]. - In a positive stock market environment, safe-haven demand for gold remains weak, causing prices to hover within a narrow range during Asian and European trading sessions [3]. - The market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with limited movement unless significant events occur [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have repeatedly faced resistance in the $4245–$4250 range, indicating this level remains a significant upper barrier. If prices continue to decline, the $4164–$4163 weekly low area is expected to serve as initial key support [4]. - A break below this support could test the psychological $4100 level and the important technical convergence area around $4085, which is supported by the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and the upward trend line since October [4]. - Conversely, if gold prices break above $4250 and stabilize in the $4277–$4278 range, there is potential for a renewed challenge of the $4300 level, laying the groundwork for further upward movement [4].