新华财经上海1月8日电进入2026年，资金市场延续跨年以来"波平浪静"的特征。央行在1月8日再次等量 续作3个月期买断式逆回购。多家机构表示，在"适度宽松"货币政策总基调下，预计2026年利率环境延 续相对稳定，"低波动"或成为2026年常态。 机构：预计2026年利率环境延续相对稳定 展望后市，中泰证券最新研报表示，从资金面上看，当前市场风险偏好仍处于较高水平。从宏观与流动 性环境看，全球流动性进一步宽松的预期。2026年货币环境或延续审慎偏宽，整体呈现"量宽价稳"的特 点。 （文章来源：新华财经） 央行再次等量续作3个月期买断式逆回购 多位业内人士表示，稳增长需求仍存，货币政策"适度宽松"的主基调未变，资金面低波状态大概率会延 续。国信证券分析师王开表示，当前格局延续"宽货币+宽信用"的组合，资金面趋紧风险较低，整体金 融条件仍对宏观与资产表现形成托底。 据华西证券统计，在各类货币政策工具协同调控下，资金利率回归低位运行状态，绝对水平逐步向政策 利率（OMO）附近收敛。以DR001为例，滚动60日标准差从一季度的4%以上逐步压缩至四季度的0.5% 左右，市场平稳性增强。 华西证券首席经济学家刘郁表示，从央 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the correlation between stocks and bonds, exploring whether the "see - stock - do - bond" approach will become a new trading theme in the bond market. It analyzes the stock - bond pattern this year, historical "stock - bond seesaw" situations, and provides an outlook for the bond market. Currently, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more prominent, and the bond market may face certain disturbances, but the liquidity environment is still relatively favorable [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Stock - Bond Pattern Deduction - In the first quarter, it was a "tight money + wide credit" environment, with a typical stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The stock market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 6.8% and the CSI 300 rising 6.0% from January 6 to March 17. The bond market was in shock consolidation, with short - end yields rising significantly [11][13][14]. - In the second quarter, it shifted to a "wide money + wide credit" environment, showing a stock - bond double - bull pattern. The stock market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 11.2% and the CSI 300 rising 9.7% from April 1 to June 30. The bond market had a recovery, with short - end yields falling significantly [11][18][19]. 3.2 Historical Stock - Bond "Seesaw" - **2016.10 - 2018.01: Economic Recovery + Monetary Tightening, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 15%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 134BP. The economic fundamentals were good, and the central bank tightened monetary policy, leading to a tight money supply [24][27][31]. - **2020.04 - 2020.12: Economic Repair + Monetary Neutrality, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 27%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 79BP. The economy recovered, and the central bank's monetary policy returned to normal. The supply pressure of government bonds increased, tightening the money supply [32][34][39]. - **2022.11 - 2023.02: Policy Intensification + Expectation Change, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 11%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 27BP. Policy adjustments boosted the expectation of economic recovery, and the bond market was affected by the negative feedback of wealth management redemptions [40][41][45]. - **2024.09 - 2024.10: Policy Tailwind + Institutional Profit - Taking, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 28%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 15BP. A series of policies boosted economic recovery expectations, and the central bank's monetary policy "good news was exhausted." Institutional profit - taking increased the bond market adjustment risk [47][49][55]. 3.3 Bond Market Outlook: See - Stock - Do - Bond? - The current bond market trading is crowded, while the stock's cost - performance is relatively high. The central bank's overall further easing policy may be limited in the short term, and the money supply may maintain a "low - volatility and rigid" state [5]. - The "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more obvious, and the logic of "see - stock - do - bond" may disturb the bond market sentiment. It is advisable to moderately participate in curve steepening trading, with a strategy of "defending and squeezing spreads at the short - to - medium end + allocating on dips at the long end" [59][60][65].