新华财经上海1月8日电进入2026年，资金市场延续跨年以来"波平浪静"的特征。央行在1月8日再次等量 续作3个月期买断式逆回购。多家机构表示，在"适度宽松"货币政策总基调下，预计2026年利率环境延 续相对稳定，"低波动"或成为2026年常态。 机构：预计2026年利率环境延续相对稳定 展望后市，中泰证券最新研报表示，从资金面上看，当前市场风险偏好仍处于较高水平。从宏观与流动 性环境看，全球流动性进一步宽松的预期。2026年货币环境或延续审慎偏宽，整体呈现"量宽价稳"的特 点。 （文章来源：新华财经） 央行再次等量续作3个月期买断式逆回购 多位业内人士表示，稳增长需求仍存，货币政策"适度宽松"的主基调未变，资金面低波状态大概率会延 续。国信证券分析师王开表示，当前格局延续"宽货币+宽信用"的组合，资金面趋紧风险较低，整体金 融条件仍对宏观与资产表现形成托底。 据华西证券统计，在各类货币政策工具协同调控下，资金利率回归低位运行状态，绝对水平逐步向政策 利率（OMO）附近收敛。以DR001为例，滚动60日标准差从一季度的4%以上逐步压缩至四季度的0.5% 左右，市场平稳性增强。 华西证券首席经济学家刘郁表示，从央 ...

中国人民银行1月7日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年1月8日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式，开展11000亿元买 断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（90天）。 Wind数据显示，1月8日将有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期。由此，央行1月8日开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，意味着当月3个月期买断式逆回 购等量续做，这也是该政策工具连续第三个月等量续做。 "3个月期买断式逆回购未加量续做，或与金融机构资金需求的期限结构有关，不代表央行降低流动性投放力度。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。 在中信证券首席经济学家明明看来，2025年12月资金整体宽松，当下资金跨年压力告一段落，且距离春节流动性、季节性压力时段仍有时间，央行短期加 大流动性净投放的紧迫性并不强。 往后看，明明表示，在适度宽松的货币政策取向延续的环境下，考虑到2026年一季度信贷"开门红"的潜在影响，对于1月到期的6000亿元6个月期买断式逆 回购，预计央行可能采取净投放操作，补充商业银行中长期流动性。 王青表示，着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行大概率会继续通过买断式逆回购操作，向银行体系注入中期流动性，引 ...

Group 1 - The central financial committee emphasizes the need to effectively manage financial risks in local small and medium financial institutions, real estate companies, and local government financing platforms, with a focus on controlling new risks and addressing existing ones [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to introduce strict regulations on public fund sales, targeting long-standing issues in the industry such as prioritizing sales over service [2] - China's financial data for November shows a significant increase in RMB loans and social financing, with RMB loans increasing by 15.36 trillion yuan and social financing growing by 33.39 trillion yuan, surpassing last year's total [3] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining stable financial markets and managing moral hazards, particularly in real estate finance [5] - The CSRC has issued a record fine to Yuce Investment for misappropriating fund assets and providing false information, highlighting the regulatory crackdown in the private equity sector [5] - The A-share market sees significant gains, particularly in nuclear power and commercial aerospace sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.41% [5] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rises by 1.75%, driven by gains in technology and non-bank financial sectors, despite net selling by southbound funds [6] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is monitoring stocks with significant volatility, indicating increased scrutiny on market activities [7] - Several companies are planning IPOs or stock issuances, including Galaxy General, which aims for a valuation of 3 to 4 billion USD [7] Group 4 - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has released a new management method for commercial bank custody businesses, emphasizing the need for banks to meet specific capabilities and prohibiting certain financial practices [9] - The market regulator is seeking opinions on compliance guidelines for the automotive industry, aiming to address pricing and promotional issues [9] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is pushing for improvements in online product sales, particularly in live commerce, to combat false advertising [9] Group 5 - The State Council has initiated measures to stabilize the real estate market, with Shandong province launching a housing "old-for-new" program to encourage home purchases [11] - The global gold ETF inflows reached 5.2 billion USD in November, marking a six-month streak of inflows and setting a record for total assets under management [20] - The domestic bond market shows signs of cooling, with yields on major bonds rising and the central bank conducting reverse repos to manage liquidity [19]

专家认为，12月流动性阶段性扰动主要来自三方面因素，包括政府债集中发行、中长期流动性回笼1.7 万亿元、个别时点存单单日到期规模较大等。 从政府债看，华西证券宏观联席首席分析师肖金川表示，12月政府债净发行规模或回落至年内低位。天 风证券固收首席分析师谭逸鸣表示，临近年末，财政支出往往对资金面形成支撑，今年政府债发行节奏 较去年同期相对前置，对应12月财政支出节奏或有提速。 "目前，央行中短期流动性的投放方式已经基本固定，即每月5日前后开展3个月期买断式逆回购、15日 前后开展6个月期买断式逆回购、25日开展MLF（中期借贷便利）操作。"招联首席研究员董希淼说，央 行通过MLF和买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有助于资金面保持较为稳定的充裕状态。 《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》提出，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，预计央行将进一步改善流动性环境，引导金融机构提升服务实体经济 的意愿。预计年末剩余时段央行大概率继续维持宽松的数量操作模式，资金面或维持相对稳健偏松态 势。 中国人民银行12月1日发布公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1076亿元7天期 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced the resumption of open market operations for government bonds, which is a significant move to enhance the financial function of government bonds and improve the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [1][2] Group 1: Market Operations - The net injection of 20 billion yuan in government bonds in October indicates the resumption of operations that were paused since January [1] - The PBOC's bond trading is a conventional monetary policy tool aimed at managing liquidity and base currency, allowing for both buying and selling to enhance short- to medium-term liquidity management [1][3] Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the resumption of bond trading signals a supportive stance for long-term liquidity in the banking system, which is expected to stabilize macroeconomic operations in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 [2] - The current 10-year government bond yield has risen to around 1.8%, indicating a widening yield spread and overall positive performance in the bond market [2] Group 3: Policy Signals - The PBOC's operation reflects a moderately loose monetary policy direction, balancing the need to avoid liquidity tightness while not signaling excessive easing [2][3] - The relatively low net purchase of 20 billion yuan is seen as a cautious approach to avoid overly influencing market expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through various operations, indicating a trend towards maintaining stable interest rates while ensuring sufficient liquidity in the market [1][4][5]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On November 17, the PBOC conducted a fixed-rate reverse repo operation of 2,830 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1,631 billion yuan after accounting for 1,199 billion yuan maturing [1]. - The PBOC also executed an 800 billion yuan six-month buyout reverse repo operation, increasing the amount by 500 billion yuan, continuing the trend of enhanced liquidity management [1][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - Since November 13, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has shown an upward trend, with the overnight rate rising from 1.3150% to 1.5080%, an increase of 19.3 basis points [3]. - The seven-day Shibor increased from 1.4740% to 1.5140%, while the one-month Shibor saw a slight rise from 1.5180% to 1.5200% [3]. Group 3: Economic Context and Policy Outlook - The recent rise in funding rates is attributed to factors such as tax periods, government bond payments, and the impact of the "Double 11" shopping festival, which temporarily tightened liquidity in the banking system [3][4]. - The PBOC aims to provide a stable medium-term funding environment while maintaining reasonable liquidity, as indicated in its third-quarter monetary policy report [4]. - Analysts suggest that a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts may occur before the end of the year, driven by external economic fluctuations and domestic growth dynamics [5]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued moderate easing of monetary policy, focusing on coordinated volume and price strategies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a weak adjustment, with trading volume decreasing to below 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious sentiment amid mixed economic signals and monetary policy expectations [1] Monetary Policy - On November 17, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a six-month term, indicating a continuation of its "moderately loose" monetary policy stance [2] - This operation aims to provide stable medium-term liquidity support, reduce the cost of liabilities for banks, and encourage increased credit issuance [2] Company Developments - Alibaba announced the public beta launch of its Qianwen App, aiming to compete directly with ChatGPT in the AI to C market, integrating various daily life scenarios to enhance its service capabilities [3] - The integration of high-frequency scenarios like maps and food delivery into Qianwen is expected to create an "AI + service" closed loop, potentially increasing user engagement and commercialization opportunities [3] Market Performance - On November 17, the A-share indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3972.03 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.11% to 13202.00 points [4] - The technology sector showed resilience, with the ChiNext Index only down 0.20% and the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index up 0.42% [4] Trading Volume - The market turnover was 19,304.69 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance also saw a decline [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Views - The current low - level capital price reflects the central bank's intention, and the trigger may be the demand for capital protection before the Fourth Plenary Session or the demand for liquidity easing during the repeated Sino - US relations. Capital is expected to remain optimistic until at least the Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to allocate 1 - year certificates of deposit (CDs) at a yield above 1.68% [4]. - Considering the central bank's supportive attitude, the forward - looking net investment in outright reverse repurchases has kept the weighted price of DR001 stable at 1.31% since early October. The capital situation is expected to remain optimistic before the Fourth Plenary Session. The 1 - year CD with a current yield of 1.67% can be gradually allocated to obtain riding returns [23]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fund Super - expected Looseness - Last week, the central bank significantly "shortened the short - term and lengthened the long - term", and the capital felt loose. The DR001 capital price remained stable at around 1.31% throughout the week [10]. - The central bank's "shortening the short - term and lengthening the long - term" operation is obvious. On the one hand, it is beneficial to the stability of commercial banks' capital lending, and on the other hand, it helps the central bank strengthen the regulation of the short - term capital market. In October, the central bank continuously withdrew short - term liquidity, while the net investment of outright reverse repurchases reached the highest value since March [16]. - In October, the central bank increased the 3 - month and 6 - month outright reverse repurchases and advanced the investment rhythm, which increased commercial banks' willingness to lend and supported the current capital looseness [18]. - The increase in short - term CD prices is mainly due to supply - side factors. The current low - level capital price represents the central bank's intention. Since October 9, the weighted price of DR001 has been stable at 1.31% [21][22]. 2. Weekly Fund CD Tracking and Key Event Reminders - **Central Bank**: Last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of reverse repurchases and invested 60 billion yuan in 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. Next week, 67.31 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and 130 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase funds and 70 billion yuan of MLF will mature in October [28]. - **Government Bonds**: Last week, the net financing of government bonds was - 2.36 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing was 1.15455 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 83.3%. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 44.52 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing will reach 1.19908 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 86.5%. The net payment will be 15.84 billion yuan. Structurally, replacement bonds are close to full issuance, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds is still slower than the seasonal average [28]. - **Bills**: The bill interest rate was oversupplied last week, and the bill interest rate generally increased [28]. - **Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated by 0.05% against the US dollar last week. The USDCNH/USDCNY swap points were around 1300/1200 points. The central bank's demand for exchange rate regulation was weak [28]. - **Funds**: The central bank continuously invested, and the net lending of state - owned banks continued to increase. The capital price decreased, the net lending of capital pass - through parties (money market funds + wealth management products) decreased, and the non - bank capital borrowing demand continued to increase. The capital stratification remained at a low level. In terms of leverage, the leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. In terms of price perception, the decline of the GC series > the increase of the R series > the increase of the DR series > the decline of the Shibor, and the term and institutional stratification narrowed, and the capital felt loose [28]. - **CDs**: In the primary market, the net financing of bank CDs turned positive last week, and the weighted issuance duration also lengthened. In the secondary market, the activity of CDs continued to decline, the yield center was basically the same as before, and non - bank buying increased significantly. The 1 - year AAA CD yield is currently 1.6725% [28][69][80]. 3. Central Bank: 6 - month Outright Reverse Repurchase Investment of 60 Billion Yuan - Last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of reverse repurchases and invested 60 billion yuan in 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. The OMO had a net withdrawal of 149.92 billion yuan. Next week, 67.31 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and 130 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase funds and 70 billion yuan of MLF will mature in October [31][33]. 4. Government Bonds: Next Week's Net Payment to Rise to 15.84 Billion Yuan - Last week, the net financing of government bonds was - 2.36 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing was 1.15455 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 83.3%. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 44.52 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing will reach 1.19908 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 86.5%. The net payment will be 15.84 billion yuan. Structurally, replacement bonds are close to full issuance, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds is still slower than the seasonal average. On October 20, a 149 - billion - yuan 10 - year treasury bond will be issued, and the peak of the government bond payment for the whole week will be on October 21, with an amount of 366.6 billion yuan [36][43]. 5. Bills: This Week's Bill Trend Generally Upward - The bill interest rate was oversupplied this week, and the bill trend generally increased. As of October 17, the 3 - month national - share direct discount rate, 3 - month national - share transfer discount rate, 6 - month national - share direct discount rate, and 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate were 0.57%, 0.43%, 0.75%, and 0.76% respectively, up 7BP, 8BP, 3BP, and 2BP from October 10 [45]. 6. Exchange Rate: RMB Exchange Rate Depreciated - The RMB depreciated by 0.05% against the US dollar this week. The USDCNH/USDCNY swap points were around 1300/1200 points. The central bank's demand for exchange rate regulation was weak. On October 17, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0949, and the inverse cycle factor was - 242pip. The central bank did not announce or issue offshore central bank bills this week [49][51][52]. 7. Market Capital Supply and Demand: Net Lending of State - owned Banks Continued to Recover - The central bank continuously invested, and the net lending of state - owned banks continued to increase. The capital price decreased, the net lending of capital pass - through parties (money market funds + wealth management products) decreased, and the non - bank capital borrowing demand continued to increase. The capital stratification remained at a low level. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. The decline of the GC series > the increase of the R series > the increase of the DR series > the decline of the Shibor, and the term and institutional stratification narrowed, and the capital felt loose [54][61][67]. 8. CDs: Net Financing of State - owned Bank CDs Turned Positive, and the Weighted Issuance Duration Lengthened 8.1 Primary Issuance Market - The net financing of bank CDs turned positive last week, with a net financing scale of 22.466 billion yuan, and the average issuance interest rate decreased to 1.6315%. Next week, about 61.789 billion yuan of CDs will mature. Structurally, the net financing of state - owned bank CDs turned negative, and the weighted issuance duration lengthened. In terms of different entities, the net financing of national - share banks turned negative, the proportion increased, and the overall subscription success rate decreased. In terms of different terms, the weighted issuance duration of CDs increased to 6.07 months, and the proportion of long - term CD issuance by national - share banks decreased. In terms of price, the issuance interest rates of CDs at all terms decreased to varying degrees, with short - duration varieties declining more [69][73][75]. 8.2 Secondary Trading Market - The activity of CDs continued to decline last week, the yield center was basically the same as before, and non - bank buying increased significantly. The CD yield first increased and then decreased, and the weekly center increased by 0.03BP compared with last week, basically remaining the same. The bank system was a net seller as a whole, while non - banks except securities firms were net buyers, among which the strength of money market funds, wealth management products, and insurance significantly recovered. The 1 - year AAA CD yield is currently 1.6725% [80][83].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on October 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index down 3.99% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050), which tracks the CSI A500 Index, fell by 1.55% with a trading volume exceeding 5.3 billion yuan, ranking first among its peers [1] - Key stocks within the ETF, such as Trina Solar, China Oil Capital, and JA Solar, saw significant gains, each rising over 7% [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation scheduled for October 15, aimed at injecting ample liquidity into the market to alleviate short-term funding pressures [1] - According to Industrial Securities, the policy stance towards the capital market remains supportive, indicating a strong baseline thinking among investors [1] - Following the market's rise since April, investor sentiment has shifted positively, leading to a stronger consensus on market upward potential [1] Group 3 - The new generation core A500 ETF (512050) facilitates investors in strategically allocating to core A-share assets [2] - This ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index and employs a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all 35 sub-industries [2] - Compared to the CSI 300, the A500 ETF is overweight in sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, and defense, showcasing a natural "barbell" investment characteristic [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 3-month term to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2][3] - As of September 5, there will be a net withdrawal of 300 billion yuan due to the maturity of 6-month reverse repos [3][4] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue its reverse repo operations to address liquidity tightening, especially with high government bond issuance and significant maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [4] Group 2 - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) maturity in September is estimated at 300 billion yuan, with expectations for slight net injections [4] - There is a possibility of additional 6-month reverse repo operations in September to manage liquidity pressures [4] - Analysts predict that the PBOC may implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the fourth quarter to support credit growth and economic stability [4]