Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Views - The current low - level capital price reflects the central bank's intention, and the trigger may be the demand for capital protection before the Fourth Plenary Session or the demand for liquidity easing during the repeated Sino - US relations. Capital is expected to remain optimistic until at least the Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to allocate 1 - year certificates of deposit (CDs) at a yield above 1.68% [4]. - Considering the central bank's supportive attitude, the forward - looking net investment in outright reverse repurchases has kept the weighted price of DR001 stable at 1.31% since early October. The capital situation is expected to remain optimistic before the Fourth Plenary Session. The 1 - year CD with a current yield of 1.67% can be gradually allocated to obtain riding returns [23]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fund Super - expected Looseness - Last week, the central bank significantly "shortened the short - term and lengthened the long - term", and the capital felt loose. The DR001 capital price remained stable at around 1.31% throughout the week [10]. - The central bank's "shortening the short - term and lengthening the long - term" operation is obvious. On the one hand, it is beneficial to the stability of commercial banks' capital lending, and on the other hand, it helps the central bank strengthen the regulation of the short - term capital market. In October, the central bank continuously withdrew short - term liquidity, while the net investment of outright reverse repurchases reached the highest value since March [16]. - In October, the central bank increased the 3 - month and 6 - month outright reverse repurchases and advanced the investment rhythm, which increased commercial banks' willingness to lend and supported the current capital looseness [18]. - The increase in short - term CD prices is mainly due to supply - side factors. The current low - level capital price represents the central bank's intention. Since October 9, the weighted price of DR001 has been stable at 1.31% [21][22]. 2. Weekly Fund CD Tracking and Key Event Reminders - **Central Bank**: Last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of reverse repurchases and invested 60 billion yuan in 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. Next week, 67.31 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and 130 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase funds and 70 billion yuan of MLF will mature in October [28]. - **Government Bonds**: Last week, the net financing of government bonds was - 2.36 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing was 1.15455 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 83.3%. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 44.52 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing will reach 1.19908 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 86.5%. The net payment will be 15.84 billion yuan. Structurally, replacement bonds are close to full issuance, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds is still slower than the seasonal average [28]. - **Bills**: The bill interest rate was oversupplied last week, and the bill interest rate generally increased [28]. - **Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated by 0.05% against the US dollar last week. The USDCNH/USDCNY swap points were around 1300/1200 points. The central bank's demand for exchange rate regulation was weak [28]. - **Funds**: The central bank continuously invested, and the net lending of state - owned banks continued to increase. The capital price decreased, the net lending of capital pass - through parties (money market funds + wealth management products) decreased, and the non - bank capital borrowing demand continued to increase. The capital stratification remained at a low level. In terms of leverage, the leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. In terms of price perception, the decline of the GC series > the increase of the R series > the increase of the DR series > the decline of the Shibor, and the term and institutional stratification narrowed, and the capital felt loose [28]. - **CDs**: In the primary market, the net financing of bank CDs turned positive last week, and the weighted issuance duration also lengthened. In the secondary market, the activity of CDs continued to decline, the yield center was basically the same as before, and non - bank buying increased significantly. The 1 - year AAA CD yield is currently 1.6725% [28][69][80]. 3. Central Bank: 6 - month Outright Reverse Repurchase Investment of 60 Billion Yuan - Last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of reverse repurchases and invested 60 billion yuan in 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. The OMO had a net withdrawal of 149.92 billion yuan. Next week, 67.31 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and 130 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase funds and 70 billion yuan of MLF will mature in October [31][33]. 4. Government Bonds: Next Week's Net Payment to Rise to 15.84 Billion Yuan - Last week, the net financing of government bonds was - 2.36 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing was 1.15455 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 83.3%. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 44.52 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing will reach 1.19908 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 86.5%. The net payment will be 15.84 billion yuan. Structurally, replacement bonds are close to full issuance, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds is still slower than the seasonal average. On October 20, a 149 - billion - yuan 10 - year treasury bond will be issued, and the peak of the government bond payment for the whole week will be on October 21, with an amount of 366.6 billion yuan [36][43]. 5. Bills: This Week's Bill Trend Generally Upward - The bill interest rate was oversupplied this week, and the bill trend generally increased. As of October 17, the 3 - month national - share direct discount rate, 3 - month national - share transfer discount rate, 6 - month national - share direct discount rate, and 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate were 0.57%, 0.43%, 0.75%, and 0.76% respectively, up 7BP, 8BP, 3BP, and 2BP from October 10 [45]. 6. Exchange Rate: RMB Exchange Rate Depreciated - The RMB depreciated by 0.05% against the US dollar this week. The USDCNH/USDCNY swap points were around 1300/1200 points. The central bank's demand for exchange rate regulation was weak. On October 17, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0949, and the inverse cycle factor was - 242pip. The central bank did not announce or issue offshore central bank bills this week [49][51][52]. 7. Market Capital Supply and Demand: Net Lending of State - owned Banks Continued to Recover - The central bank continuously invested, and the net lending of state - owned banks continued to increase. The capital price decreased, the net lending of capital pass - through parties (money market funds + wealth management products) decreased, and the non - bank capital borrowing demand continued to increase. The capital stratification remained at a low level. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. The decline of the GC series > the increase of the R series > the increase of the DR series > the decline of the Shibor, and the term and institutional stratification narrowed, and the capital felt loose [54][61][67]. 8. CDs: Net Financing of State - owned Bank CDs Turned Positive, and the Weighted Issuance Duration Lengthened 8.1 Primary Issuance Market - The net financing of bank CDs turned positive last week, with a net financing scale of 22.466 billion yuan, and the average issuance interest rate decreased to 1.6315%. Next week, about 61.789 billion yuan of CDs will mature. Structurally, the net financing of state - owned bank CDs turned negative, and the weighted issuance duration lengthened. In terms of different entities, the net financing of national - share banks turned negative, the proportion increased, and the overall subscription success rate decreased. In terms of different terms, the weighted issuance duration of CDs increased to 6.07 months, and the proportion of long - term CD issuance by national - share banks decreased. In terms of price, the issuance interest rates of CDs at all terms decreased to varying degrees, with short - duration varieties declining more [69][73][75]. 8.2 Secondary Trading Market - The activity of CDs continued to decline last week, the yield center was basically the same as before, and non - bank buying increased significantly. The CD yield first increased and then decreased, and the weekly center increased by 0.03BP compared with last week, basically remaining the same. The bank system was a net seller as a whole, while non - banks except securities firms were net buyers, among which the strength of money market funds, wealth management products, and insurance significantly recovered. The 1 - year AAA CD yield is currently 1.6725% [80][83].

【操作建议】 基本面而言，9月经济前瞻指标呈现旺季回升迹象，但是供需结构性矛盾仍存，内需回升偏慢仍是约 束，货币政策当前以抓执行为主，如果三季度GDP弱于预期货币政策有加力可能。短期节后债市一方面 关注基金赎回费新规落地情况，二是关注市场风险偏好变化，10月中旬以前政策预期可能继续驱动股 牛，这种情形下债市情绪仍有可能受到风偏压制，如果出现超预期冲击也不排除出现超调。不过当前资 金面基调宽松和长短期限利差回归正常水平也制约长债下跌的幅度，如果10年期国债利率上行至1.8% 以上区间配置价值有所回升。短期期债预计继续区间震荡，T2512震荡区间可能在107.4-108.3，建议以 观望为主等待超调机会。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 央行公告称，10月9日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 ...

10月9日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展6120亿元7天期逆回购操作。由于当日有20633亿元逆回购到期，实现净回笼14513亿元。 | | | | 期限 | 操作利率 | 投标量 | 中标量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 6120亿元 | 6120亿元 | 央行在9月30日提前预告称，10月9日，央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 | | | 来源：央行网站 从逆回购到期情况看，10月10日还有6000亿元逆回购到期，本周逆回购到期量合计为2.66万亿元。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，央行在国庆假期后首个工作日开展10月首次买断式逆回购操作。 央行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会提出，保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、 价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 来源：央行网站 数据显示，10月将有8000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，央行今日开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，意味着10月3 个 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1,883 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a bid and winning amount of 1,883 billion yuan and an operation rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 7,829 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5,946 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with overnight Shibor unchanged at 1.3160%, while 7-day Shibor decreased by 1.00 basis points to 1.4270% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the 7-day rates showed mixed trends, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates rising by 0.1 basis points and 0.3 basis points, respectively [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 decreased by 1.2 basis points and 0.6 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes showing varied changes [4][6] - The funding market presented a balanced situation in the morning, shifting to a tighter stance in the afternoon, and then easing towards the end of the trading day [9] Group 3 - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 101, with an actual issuance volume of 1,435.4 billion yuan by the end of the day [9] - The bond market experienced a pullback, with trading sentiment being generally cautious, particularly favoring short-term risks [10] - The recent revision of the capital guarantee management measures for insurance companies aims to enhance the selection criteria for banks holding capital, reflecting a focus on risk management and internal controls [11]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 3-month term to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2][3] - As of September 5, there will be a net withdrawal of 300 billion yuan due to the maturity of 6-month reverse repos [3][4] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue its reverse repo operations to address liquidity tightening, especially with high government bond issuance and significant maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [4] Group 2 - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) maturity in September is estimated at 300 billion yuan, with expectations for slight net injections [4] - There is a possibility of additional 6-month reverse repo operations in September to manage liquidity pressures [4] - Analysts predict that the PBOC may implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the fourth quarter to support credit growth and economic stability [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 212.6 billion yuan for a 7-day term, with both the bidding and winning amounts at 212.6 billion yuan and an operation rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 416.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with overnight Shibor unchanged at 1.3160%, 7-day Shibor up by 0.40 basis points to 1.4370%, and 14-day Shibor down by 1.00 basis points to 1.4760% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the 7-day rates showed mixed trends, with R007 and R014 rates remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [5] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 0.1 basis points and 0.3 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes rising to 296.6 billion yuan and 913 billion yuan [5] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 saw a slight increase and decrease, respectively, with transaction volumes showing a mixed trend [5] Group 3 - The funding market on September 4 exhibited a balanced and slightly loose stance, with overnight rates fluctuating around 1.43%-1.45% [9] - By the afternoon, the funding prices showed slight declines, with overnight rates dropping to around 1.36% [9] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 99 issues, with an actual issuance volume of 144.11 billion yuan [10] Group 4 - A report from Caitong Securities indicated that despite increased volatility in late August, the average funding rates reached the lowest level of the year, with a decrease in funding gaps compared to July [12] - The People's Bank of China announced plans for a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 5, with a 3-month term, effectively rolling over the same amount maturing on that day [12]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos are set to expire this week, alongside other factors such as MLF expirations and government bond issuances, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Liquidity Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted reverse repo operations totaling 4.384 billion yuan over the first two days of September, while the total reverse repos maturing during this period amounted to 6.942 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan [2][3]. - The PBOC is expected to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in September, with analysts predicting that funding rates will likely continue to operate at low levels with minimal fluctuations due to supportive monetary policy and anticipated fiscal spending [5][6]. Group 2: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September is characterized by increased seasonal disturbances in liquidity, particularly as fiscal spending typically accelerates towards the end of the month, which may provide some support to the liquidity environment [6][7]. - The strong performance of the equity market and heightened risk appetite may drive funds to reallocate across various asset classes, while the end-of-quarter credit issuance may be more pronounced than in previous years, potentially amplifying liquidity fluctuations [7].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1120 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, while a total of 5448 billion yuan in reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan from the open market [1] - Last week, the central bank's reverse repos resulted in a net withdrawal of 5365 billion yuan, and a 7000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation was conducted on Friday with a three-month term [1] - The overnight interest rates remained low, with R001 and DR001 hovering around 1.35% and 1.31%, respectively, while the seven-day rates R007 and DR007 oscillated around 1.47% and 1.45% [1] Group 2 - This week, the scale of reverse repos maturing will decrease to 11267 billion yuan, primarily due to a large amount maturing on Monday, with subsequent days around 1500 billion yuan [2] - The net government bond payment scale will rise to 4101 billion yuan, mainly concentrated on Monday and Friday, with August 15 being the tax deadline and mid-month reserve payment date [2] - Despite the large amount of reverse repos maturing and increased government bond payments, the liquidity in the market is expected to remain loose due to the central bank's stabilizing stance [2][3] Group 3 - The government bond payment pressure is concentrated on Monday (2344 billion yuan) and Friday (1847 billion yuan), marking a high point for the month [3] - The total reverse repos maturing this week is 11267 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous week's 16632 billion yuan, but still above one trillion yuan [3] - The PBOC's recent 7000 billion yuan three-month buyout reverse repo operation has raised market attention regarding future liquidity management, with expectations for a second buyout operation in August [3]