Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved. Considering the central bank's bond - buying, the bottom of Treasury bond futures is supported. With the slowdown of economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The November LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with expectations and had limited impact on the bond market. The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The buying of 5 - year and 7 - year Treasury bond cash bonds was relatively obvious, possibly related to the central bank's bond - buying. [8] - **Interest Rate Cash Bonds**: The yields of major - term interest - rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market all changed within a narrow range. By 16:30 PM, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8090%, up 0.2bp. [9] - **Funding Market**: After the impact of the tax payment period ended, the inter - bank funding market became looser, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. There were 310 billion yuan of open - market maturities, and the central bank injected 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 10 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index dropped significantly, indicating further relief of funding pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits dropped 5.69bp to 1.3652%, and the 7 - day rate dropped 2.74bp to 1.4857%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64%. [10] - **Conclusion**: In terms of the economic fundamentals, since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken, especially the investment side has accelerated its decline. The export, which was the main support of the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of export decline and weak domestic demand led to price indicators remaining low. The fundamentals still face certain pressure. In terms of policies, the current combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies has been strengthened again. The restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The credit - expansion effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited. The central bank may increase the space for easing. Overall, the bond market environment has improved, but there are still some uncertain disturbances. [11][12] 2. Industry News - The November LPR quote remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3%, and the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.5%. [13] - The Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association organized an integrity initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline and maintain the real - estate market order. [13] - Recently, multiple "two - important" construction projects have started. "Two - important" construction will be an important focus of the stable - growth policy, and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate. [13] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will issue a notice on referring to the cost index of lithium iron phosphate and standardizing industry development to prevent low - price dumping. [14] - Japan plans to launch a new expenditure plan of 17.7 trillion yen and needs to issue more bonds to raise funds. [15] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on the trading of various Treasury bond futures contracts on November 20, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest, were presented. [6] - **Money Market**: Information on the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repo rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged - repo rate, was provided. [29][31] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided. [34]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved, with support at the bottom of Treasury bond futures and rising expectations of easing due to the slowdown of economic momentum. Investors should pay attention to this week's economic activity data and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations and seize opportunities to buy on dips [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock - bond seesaw reappeared. The stock market reached a new high, suppressing the bond market, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Yields of major term interest - bearing Treasury bonds in the inter - bank market rose across the board. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 reached 1.8040%, up 0.3bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: With continuous central bank injections, the pressure on bank funds has been significantly relieved. The central bank conducted a net injection of 972 billion yuan today, and it has been a consecutive net injection this week. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined slightly, indicating a marginal easing of funding pressure. Overnight weighted interest rates and 7 - day interest rates in the inter - bank market both decreased, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: The domestic economic fundamentals face pressure, with economic indicators weakening since June, especially the accelerating decline in investment and the decline in exports in October. Currently, there is an increase in loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand. The impact of loose fiscal policies on the bond market is expected to be limited in the short term. Overall, the bond market environment has improved, but there are still some uncertain disturbances [11][12]. 2. Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with relevant American figures, stating that China and the US have broad cooperation space in the economic and trade field and should jointly promote the stable development of bilateral economic and trade relations [13]. - During the 8th China International Import Expo, Vice - Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping held a symposium for foreign - funded retail enterprises, welcoming them to develop in China [13]. - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, which may end the 43 - day federal government shutdown. The government shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points [13]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the Trump administration will announce "substantial" tariff news in the next few days and plans to implement tariff exemptions on commodities such as coffee and bananas. The government is also discussing a "tariff dividend" plan to provide a $2000 tax refund to families with an annual income of less than $100,000 [13]. - White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as the Fed Chairman if nominated and hopes for a larger - scale interest rate cut at the December policy meeting [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on Treasury bond futures trading on November 13, including contract information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. It also mentions various cross - period and cross - variety spreads of Treasury bond futures main contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: The report shows the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the change in the pledged repurchase rate between banks and depository institutions [28][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the fixed - rate curves (average) of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. Considering that the central bank has started bond purchases, the bottom of treasury bond futures is supported. Coupled with the slowdown in economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again. It is advisable to pay attention to next week's economic activity data and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations and seize the opportunity to layout on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Today's weak export data and the A-share market's rise and then fall had limited support for the bond market. With the central bank's continuous net withdrawal of funds in recent days, the liquidity tightened slightly, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities rose. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8070%, up 0.6bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the liquidity tightened marginally. Today, there were 3551 billion yuan of open - market operations due, and the central bank injected 1417 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2134 billion yuan. This was the fifth consecutive day of net withdrawal this week. The inter - bank funds sentiment index rose slightly, indicating marginal tightening of liquidity. Among them, the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits among banks rose slightly by 1.5bp to 1.33%, the 7 - day rate fell slightly by 1.24bp to 1.413%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion**: Since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken. In particular, the investment side has accelerated its decline, and the export, which was the main support for the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of falling exports and weak domestic demand still poses significant pressure on the economic fundamentals. Currently, the central bank is implementing loose monetary and fiscal policies. The resumption of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. Referring to past experience, the credit - easing effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - **Foreign Trade Data**: On November 7, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in October, China's exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with a growth of 8.3% in the previous period; imports increased by 1%, compared with a growth of 7.4% in the previous period; the trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars, compared with 904.5 billion US dollars in the previous period [13]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank released the liquidity injection situation of various tools in October, showing a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading. This means that the treasury bond trading operation that was suspended since January this year has resumed, which is conducive to releasing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. In addition, the central bank announced that it would conduct a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5 [13]. - **US Economic Situation**: The severe employment situation in the United States has led to an increase in expectations of an interest - rate cut. Revelio Labs reported that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States decreased by 9100 in October, compared with an increase of 33000 in the previous month. In addition, the number of job cuts by Challenger Gray & Christmas in the United States in October reached 153100, a year - on - year surge of 175.3%, the highest level for the same period since 2003. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December exceeds 70%. The continuous shutdown of the US federal government has led to the suspension of the release of official inflation data, causing some Federal Reserve officials to worry about the future direction of monetary policy [13][14]. - **Real Estate News**: Recently, many real - estate enterprises have made significant progress in debt restructuring. As of now, 21 troubled real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved or completed, with a total debt - resolution scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan, which will greatly relieve the short - term public debt repayment pressure of these enterprises. Industry insiders believe that the approval of debt restructuring and reorganization of troubled real - estate enterprises will accelerate the process of clearing real - estate risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on November 7, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6].

Report Information - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Research Analysts: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. If there are phased disturbances leading to market over - adjustment, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: At the beginning of the month, funds were loose, the stock market continued to adjust, and the sentiment in the bond market was okay. Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term increases and long - term decreases, with narrow fluctuations in the medium and long - term. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 dropped by 0.1bp to 1.789% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the funding situation was stable and loose. There were 475.3 billion yuan of maturities in the open market, and the central bank injected 117.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.31, the 7 - day rate rose slightly by 0.75bp to 1.4262%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.63% [10] - **Conclusion**: The economic fundamentals are under pressure due to weak domestic demand and a possible decline in exports. The market's expectation of monetary easing may rise again. The combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies has been strengthened, and the restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of wide - credit from wide - fiscal policies on the bond market should be limited. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved, and allocation opportunities should be seized if there is market over - adjustment [11][12] 2. Industry News - **China's Manufacturing PMI**: China's S&P manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in the previous month. The expansion of the manufacturing PMI slowed down overall [13] - **US - China Relations**: The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose additional tariffs on China if China continued to restrict rare - earth exports. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways [13] - **China - EU Exports**: China and the EU held export control dialogue and consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [13] - **High - level Forecast**: Goldman Sachs' China research team raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting China's exports to grow by 5 - 6% annually in the coming years and raising the forecast for China's real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5% [13] - **Exhibition Information**: The 8th China International Import Expo will be held in Shanghai from November 5th to 10th, and Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony [13] - **US Fed Policy**: Fed Governor Cook said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in December depending on new information. Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts [14] - **US Government Shutdown**: As of November 4th, the US federal government's shutdown entered the 35th day, tying the longest - ever shutdown record [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides data on trading of Treasury bond futures contracts on November 4th, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests. It also mentions information on cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of Treasury bond futures main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate change [29][31] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to resume public market operations for government bonds, indicating a shift in monetary policy to address the current imbalance in the bond market supply and demand [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market is currently operating well, prompting the PBOC to restart government bond trading [1] - There has been a significant increase in the issuance of government bonds and local government bonds this year, with expectations of continued fiscal expansion [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, noted that the resumption of government bond trading will help stabilize bond market interest rates and support the fiscal policy [1] - The PBOC's earlier suspension of government bond trading was primarily due to a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The combination of "broad monetary" and "broad fiscal" policies is becoming increasingly necessary to address market disruptions caused by future debt needs [1] - The PBOC's actions are aimed at enhancing medium to long-term liquidity supply and ensuring smooth transmission of monetary policy [1]