前言 特朗普又出幺蛾子了！最近他把身边白宫职员米兰插进美联储理事会。 这是1951年美联储和财政部定下"央行独立"规矩以来，第一次有在职白宫的人踏进这个核心圈。 更扎心的是，米兰在议息会上直接反对美联储只降25个基点，喊着"该降50个"，明摆着顺着特朗普的胃 口来。 这下所有人都慌：美联储攒了百年的"独立人设"，是不是要栽在特朗普手里了？ 降息的底气是"假数据" 美联储说这次降息是应对着就业疲软，可 8 月新增就业就 2.2 万人、失业率涨去 2.9% 的账，其实算得 "糊里糊涂"。 因为就业数据本来不实！去年劳工部刚对 2024 年 4 月到今年 3 月的新增就业核减 91.1 万。 相当于之前统计的有一半岗位都是"编的"，51%的就业根本没发生过。 更邪乎的是，现在老百姓填统计局问卷的越来越少，政府没钱没人去核实，加上疫情后经济玩法全变， 以前的"企业出生-死亡模型"根本算不准现状。 数据还得滞后两三个月才出来，美联储做决策跟"摸瞎走路"有啥区别？就这还敢降息？简直是拿美国经 济当赌注。 政治之手伸进美联储 更可怕的是特朗普对美联储的"改造"。 以前美联储理事都是金融界的"老江湖"，讲专业不掺政治。 可现 ...

Group 1 - The core inflation indicator, the core PCE price index, rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking a five-month high, indicating that inflation is becoming entrenched in the economy [3] - The Biden administration's tariffs on Chinese goods have not yet fully manifested, suggesting that consumers will soon face a "China-made price surge," potentially leading to a dual inflation scenario [3] - The employment data, previously seen as a shield for the economy, has been called into question after a significant downward revision of June's job additions by 90%, reducing the reported 200,000 new jobs to just 20,000 [4][5] Group 2 - The market is currently focused on the extent of potential interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut in September being almost certain, while some speculate a 50 basis point cut [6] - Gold prices have surged above $3,500 for the first time, reflecting fears of a financial storm, as prominent investors warn of impending market turmoil [6] - The AI sector, which has been a major driver of the stock market, is showing signs of weakness, with a recent MIT study revealing that 95% of companies find AI unhelpful for their business [7][9] Group 3 - The U.S. economy is facing multiple challenges, including tariffs igniting inflation, questionable employment data, erratic interest rate policies, the potential collapse of the AI bubble, and warnings from the gold market, reminiscent of the pre-2008 financial crisis [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding President Trump's decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntyre, following disappointing employment data and significant downward revisions of previous months' job numbers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Revisions - The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3] - Revisions to employment data for May and June showed a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, with May's figures revised from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to just 14,000 [3][4]. Group 2: Trump's Defense and Accusations - Trump defended his decision to fire McEntyre, accusing her of artificially inflating employment data before the election and later making significant downward corrections, which he labeled as a "scam" [2][4]. - He claimed that McEntyre's actions resulted in the "largest error in 50 years," asserting that nearly 1 million jobs were incorrectly reported [2]. Group 3: Political Reactions - Trump's decision faced backlash in Congress, with Democrats accusing the White House of politicizing data and undermining statistical independence [6]. - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer criticized Trump's behavior as typical, stating he "shoots the messenger" when faced with unfavorable news [7]. - Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers described Trump's accusations as absurd, emphasizing that employment data is compiled by a large team following strict procedures [8].

智通财经8月4日电，据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普当地时间8月3日在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文，指责 已被解职的劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗在总统选举前"人为抬高就业数据"，并称其犯下"50年来最 大误差"。特朗普表示，埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗在大选前将就业数据"提升至历史高位"，而在他胜选后，又将 数据下调近100万个岗位，声称是"错误修正"。他怒斥这是一场"骗局"，并称埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗近期再次 进行"重大修正"，因此被解雇。 不满就业数据 特朗普再批劳工统计局前局长制造"骗局" ...

Core Viewpoint - The statement highlights allegations of manipulation in employment data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggesting that such actions have political implications and can affect election outcomes [1] Group 1 - The Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics allegedly inflated employment data to historical highs before the presidential election [1] - Following the election, the employment data was revised downwards, indicating a correction that involved nearly one million jobs [1] - The Director was subsequently dismissed after being accused of making the largest calculation error in over 50 years [1]

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Donald Trump 发文指控美国劳工统计局局长、拜登政府任命的 Erika McEntarfer 在 2024 年 大选前伪造就业数据，称该机构曾在 2024 年 3 月夸大就业增长约 81.8 万人，在 8 月和 9 月又高估了 11.2 万人。他表示已指示团队立即撤换 McEntarfer，并批评该机构的多次数据修正总是偏向负面。此 外，Trump 还指责美联储在大选前两次大幅降息具有政治意图，呼吁将主席 Jerome Powell"撤职"。 来源：市场资讯 ...