，部分尿素企业库存加速下降，虽然局部尿素库存增减不一，但整体库存仍以下降为主，但当下尿素企业 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 库存远高于往年同期。前期出口订单执行进入后期，尿素整体去库速度或减弱，不过出口预期存在，对价 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 格仍有支撑。UR2509合约短线建议在1750-1830区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The article suggests that there may be an overreaction in the market regarding the bearish outlook on urea prices, indicating potential for price recovery due to upcoming demand shifts and tender announcements [1] Group 1: Market Demand - Domestic demand for urea in China is expected to rebound in August, which could positively influence prices [1] - The next round of urea tendering in India is anticipated to be announced by IPL in mid-August, potentially impacting market dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1. Futures Market - The UR2509 contract had a high of 1904, a low of 1725, and closed at 1882 on May 8, with a weekly increase of 7.05% [5] 2. Regional Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices varied by region For example, Shandong's (cash - on - delivery ex - factory) price closed at 1805, down 0.25% week - on - week; Guangxi's closed at 1980, up 1.74% week - on - week; and the national average closed at 1829, down 0.89% week - on - week [7] 3. International Market - For small - particle urea, FOB prices in the Black Sea and Baltic increased by 1.13% and 1.14% respectively, while FOB China decreased by 2.43% CFR Brazil increased by 3.27% [8] - For large - particle urea, FOB Middle East net price increased by 6.62%, and FOB Middle East (US source net reverse calculation) increased by 4.89% [8] - Other international prices also had different changes, such as FOB Iran down 1.32% and Venezuela/Trinidad up 4.05% [9] 4. Inventory - Yantai port inventory was 5.5 on May 8, up 3.77% from April 24 and down 36.05% year - on - year - Total port urea inventory was 12.3, up 6.96% from April 24 and down 38.81% year - on - year - Domestic enterprise inventory was 95.25, down 6.80% from April 24 and up 133.46% year - on - year [10]