国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期偏弱，中期震荡 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251204-1210)，中国尿素生产企业产量：138.54万吨，较上期涨0.03万吨，环比涨0.02%。周期内新增2家企业装置停车，5家停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期的装置变化，本周产量小幅波动。下周，中国尿素周产量预计139万吨附近，较本期小幅波动。下个周期预计2家企业装置计划停车，1家停车企业装置可能恢复生 | | | | 产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量变动的幅度有限。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，11月为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易商及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of an increase in urea production is high due to few short - term maintenance plans and some device restarts, despite a recent slight decrease in daily output caused by new device maintenance. [3] - Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly with limited rigid demand, and the autumn fertilizer production stage has begun. The compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is rising steadily but slowly, and the melamine operating rate has rebounded but may be restricted by weak downstream demand. [3] - Some urea enterprise inventories are decreasing rapidly, and the overall inventory is mainly decreasing, though still much higher than the same period in previous years. The overall inventory reduction speed may weaken as previous export orders enter the later stage, but export expectations still support the price. [3] - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1812 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 32 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. [3] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 195,949 lots, up 7,222 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,247 lots, down 605 lots. [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 2,523 lots, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1770, 1810, 1810, 1830, and 1820 yuan/ton respectively, all with varying increases. [3] - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main port are 437.5 and 435 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 25 US dollars. [3] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 18 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan. [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.1 tons, up 5.2 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 89.55 tons, down 7.22 tons week - on - week. [3] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 84.46%, down 0.8%; the daily urea output is 195,500 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] - The urea export volume is 0, with no change; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 32.55%, up 2.72%; the melamine operating rate is 64.24%, up 1.68%. [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 91 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 490 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan. [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 416.82 tons, down 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,900 tons, up 900 tons. [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.22 tons or 7.46%. [3] - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 tons or 10.63%. [3] - As of July 17, China's urea output was 136.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31 tons or 0.95%, and the average daily output was 19.55 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, down 0.80%. [3] 3.6 Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday. [3]

Core Insights - The article suggests that there may be an overreaction in the market regarding the bearish outlook on urea prices, indicating potential for price recovery due to upcoming demand shifts and tender announcements [1] Group 1: Market Demand - Domestic demand for urea in China is expected to rebound in August, which could positively influence prices [1] - The next round of urea tendering in India is anticipated to be announced by IPL in mid-August, potentially impacting market dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1. Futures Market - The UR2509 contract had a high of 1904, a low of 1725, and closed at 1882 on May 8, with a weekly increase of 7.05% [5] 2. Regional Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices varied by region For example, Shandong's (cash - on - delivery ex - factory) price closed at 1805, down 0.25% week - on - week; Guangxi's closed at 1980, up 1.74% week - on - week; and the national average closed at 1829, down 0.89% week - on - week [7] 3. International Market - For small - particle urea, FOB prices in the Black Sea and Baltic increased by 1.13% and 1.14% respectively, while FOB China decreased by 2.43% CFR Brazil increased by 3.27% [8] - For large - particle urea, FOB Middle East net price increased by 6.62%, and FOB Middle East (US source net reverse calculation) increased by 4.89% [8] - Other international prices also had different changes, such as FOB Iran down 1.32% and Venezuela/Trinidad up 4.05% [9] 4. Inventory - Yantai port inventory was 5.5 on May 8, up 3.77% from April 24 and down 36.05% year - on - year - Total port urea inventory was 12.3, up 6.96% from April 24 and down 38.81% year - on - year - Domestic enterprise inventory was 95.25, down 6.80% from April 24 and up 133.46% year - on - year [10]