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节后成交较好
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-25 05:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Bullish with a sideways trend [3] - Inter - period: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread when the price is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the trading volume was good. The manufacturers had no pressure in receiving orders during the Spring Festival, and the prices remained stable. In the later stage of the festival, some agricultural demand started. It is expected that the spot price in February will remain stable for the time being. The supply will increase as some gas - based and technological - reformed enterprises resume production, and 10% of the off - season reserve goods will be released in February. After the Spring Festival, the demand for green - turning fertilizers will gradually start, the compound fertilizer plants will resume production, the melamine plants will increase their operating rates, and the overall inventory in urea plants will decrease while the port inventory will slightly increase. The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender, and the domestic export quota has no new news. Attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 24, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1855 yuan/ton (+22). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1830 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1850 yuan/ton (+40), and in Jiangsu was 1850 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 5 yuan/ton (+18), in Henan was - 25 yuan/ton (- 2), and in Jiangsu was - 5 yuan/ton (+8) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 24, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 90.59% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (- 8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.60 tons (unchanged) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 285 yuan/ton (+40), and the export profit was 1175 yuan/ton (+126) [1] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intended volume of 1.5 million tons (700,000 tons on the east coast and 800,000 tons on the west coast). The tender was opened on February 18, valid until February 28, and the latest shipping date was March 31. A total of 3.07 million tons of bids were received from 20 suppliers. The lowest offer on the east coast was CFR 512 US dollars/ton, and on the west coast was CFR 508 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 24, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.50% (- 11.69%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.17% (+3.40), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 24, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (- 8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.60 tons (unchanged) [1]
尿素日报:春节收单有序进行-20260206
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 03:33
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Volatile [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when it's at a low level [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Some manufacturers' price cuts have improved order collection, and agricultural demand is following up. The price is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival. On the supply side, some gas - based and technical - renovation enterprises resumed production in January, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers are conducting Spring Festival order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer operation rate increased slightly this week, at a relatively high level. The downstream fertilizer demand is approaching, and the sales are improving. There is an expected decline in operation rate before the Spring Festival. The melamine operation rate decreased due to more temporary shutdowns this week, with only rigid demand. The overall inventory in urea factories decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the Iranian situation, international urea prices rose. India is expected to tender again. There is no new information about the domestic export quota, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 5, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1778 yuan/ton (- 9); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1760 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle urea price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (+ 10); the small - particle urea price in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (+ 10); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+ 19); the basis in Henan was - 18 yuan/ton (+ 9); the basis in Jiangsu was 22 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 5, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.14% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - On February 5, 2026, the urea production profit was 215 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - On February 5, 2026, the export profit was 943 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of February 5, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 41.79% (+ 0.45%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.95% (- 8.50%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 8.82 days (+ 2.23) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1]
尿素日报:下游刚需采购-20260203
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 05:41
下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差:2026-02-02,尿素主力收盘1787元/吨(-3);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1770 元/吨(0);山东地区小 颗粒报价:1770元/吨(-20);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1800元/吨(+0);小块无烟煤800元/吨(+0),山东基差:-17 元/吨(-17);河南基差:-17元/吨(+3);江苏基差:13元/吨(+3);尿素生产利润205元/吨(-20),出口利润936 元/吨(+8)。 供应端:截至2026-02-02,企业产能利用率88.28%(0.08%)。样本企业总库存量为94.49 万吨(-0.11),港口样本 库存量为14.40 万吨(+1.00)。 需求端:截至2026-02-02,复合肥产能利用率41.34%(-1.62%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为66.45%(+2.80%);尿素 企业预收订单天数6.59日(+0.71)。 尿素日报 | 2026-02-03 尿素价格窄幅震荡,农业需求跟进,春节收单压力较小,预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加 技改企业恢复,供应量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中,厂家陆续进行春节收单。淡储采购进入 ...
尿素日报:尿素产销好转-20260123
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 03:22
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is bullish with a sideways trend, suggesting a "Long" rating for the urea market [3]. - The cross - period strategy recommends a long position on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low, implying a positive outlook for this spread [3]. - There is no cross - variety strategy recommended [3]. 2. Core View - Urea production and sales have improved. In the first half of the week, snow and rain in some areas affected logistics, cooling the market trading atmosphere and causing spot prices to stabilize or decline. Manufacturers lowered prices to attract orders, and production and sales improved. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production in January. On the demand side, there was some procurement for winter and spring fertilizers, and off - season storage procurement was ongoing. The resumption of production in the compound fertilizer and melamine industries led to increased demand. Overall, urea inventories in factories and ports decreased slightly. International urea prices rose due to the situation in Iran, but there is no new news on domestic export quotas. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On January 22, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1776 yuan/ton (- 3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3), in Henan was - 36 yuan/ton (+ 3), and in Jiangsu was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1]. II. Urea Production - As of January 22, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.39% (a change of 0.08%). The sample enterprise total inventory was 94.60 million tons (- 4.01 million tons), and the port sample inventory was 13.40 million tons (unchanged) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the export profit was 871 yuan/ton (+ 12) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - International urea prices have increased due to the situation in Iran, and the export profit has increased by 12 yuan/ton to 871 yuan/ton [1][2]. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 22, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 42.96% (+ 2.88%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 63.65% (+ 1.47%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (- 0.18) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.01 million tons to 94.60 million tons, and the port sample inventory remained unchanged at 13.40 million tons [1].
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260113
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 09:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high, but the agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season with lukewarm overall trading atmosphere. The downstream is resistant to high - price goods and mostly adopts a just - in - time procurement strategy. The industrial sector maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly, and the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1774 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 230,249 lots, down 6,626 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 17,040. The exchange warehouse receipts are 13,355 sheets, up 155 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu and Shandong are 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 53 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. FOB Baltic is 367.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China main port is 402.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.0222 million tons, up 3,000 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 2.93%. The daily urea output is 195,900 tons, up 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.17%, up 3.28%. The melamine operating rate is 54.35%, up 6.7%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 244 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 152 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, down 1,900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, up 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly this period, with local inventory rising or falling differently. As of January 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 140,000 tons, down 18.60% week - on - week. The departure volume of port goods increases this week, and some ports are loading and leaving. Due to the slow pace of factory goods gathering at ports and quota restrictions, most ports maintain a low level. As of January 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3716 million tons, up 0.92% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate is 83.22%, up 2.93% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]
尿素日报:现货价格小幅下调-20260113
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 05:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 long the spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - After the urea price rose last week, new order transactions slowed down, and some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes to sell goods. The transaction in East China improved. In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, some winter and spring fertilizers started to be purchased, and off - season storage procurement was in progress. The environmental protection restrictions in some areas of compound fertilizers were lifted, the start - up rate increased, and procurement improved. The melamine plants resumed production, the start - up rate increased, and there was rigid demand for procurement. The in - factory inventory of urea was basically flat this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 3.62 million tons of bids from 26 suppliers, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The current domestic export quota has no new news, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 12, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1,783 yuan/ton (+6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,730 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu it was 1,740 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was - 53 yuan/ton (-26), in Henan it was - 43 yuan/ton (-16), and in Jiangsu it was - 43 yuan/ton (-26) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.28% (+0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 165 yuan/ton (-20) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 850 yuan/ton (+12). On January 2nd, the Indian NFL urea import tender received bids from 26 suppliers for 3.62 million tons, with the lowest offer of CFR 426.8 US dollars/ton on the East Coast and 424.8 US dollars/ton on the West Coast, up 5 - 8 US dollars/ton from the previous tender. The Indian NFL counter - offered to purchase 1.5 million tons and has currently booked 1 million tons [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of January 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.17% (+3.28%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 54.35% (+6.70%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0222 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 135,000 tons (-37,000) [1]
国泰君安期货能源化工尿素周度报告-20260111
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-11 09:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is a correction, while the medium - term trend is bullish. The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily urea output remains high. The demand side shows seasonal strengthening in agricultural demand, and the fundamentals of urea are improving. The subsequent upward drive depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment. [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, BoDa, JinKai, DongPing), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices of urea over the years. [6][7][20] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 3920000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640000 tons. In 2026, it is expected to add 6510000 tons of new capacity. [24] Production Plan - Lists the production plans of urea enterprises, including start - up and shutdown situations and reasons. [26] Output - The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily urea output remains high. The charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and the daily output of coal - based and gas - based urea in China over the years. [27][28] Cost - The raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. Cost calculations for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi are provided, along with the full - cost trends of urea in different production processes (fluidized - bed, fixed - bed, natural - gas) over the years. [30][31] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. Charts show the cash - flow profit and production profit of urea in different production processes over the years. [35][36] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, the export policy is tightened. Tables show the monthly net import (export) data of urea from 2018 to 2025 (E), and charts show the export profit and export volume of small - particle urea over the years. [40][41] Domestic Demand Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strengthening. Different regions have different fertilizer - using seasons and crop types. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory of compound fertilizers over the years. [46][47][49] Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers are presented through charts of capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory. [56][53] - **Melamine**: Charts show the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine over the years. [57][58] - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. Charts show the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real - estate construction and completion data over the years. [60][61] Inventory - Factory inventory: On January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.30 million tons, or 0.29%. - Port inventory: As of January 8, 2026 (week 2), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 140000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32000 tons, or 18.60%. [66] International Urea - Multiple charts show the trends of FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil over the years. [70][71][73]
国泰君安期货能源化工尿素周度报告-20260104
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-04 08:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term view: The urea market will be in a state of oscillation. The speculation in the fertilizer sector is suppressed by policies related to sulfur and phosphate fertilizers, resulting in neutral spot trading. However, due to the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak season in 2026, the 05 contract has a downside support [2]. - Medium - term view: The central price level of urea will move upwards. The fundamentals of urea have improved stage - by - stage with continuous procurement from reserves and the grassroots level. The subsequent upward momentum depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts related to urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, including the basis of different enterprises (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), 5 - 9 monthly spreads, 1 - 5 monthly spreads, 9 - 1 monthly spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts. It also shows domestic and international spot price trends of urea [5][9][16][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued. A number of enterprises added new production capacity, with a total of 664 million tons of new capacity added in 2025. Some enterprises also had device restarts and capacity replacements [24]. - **Production Plan**: The report lists the maintenance plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including the start and end dates of maintenance, raw materials, and reasons for maintenance [26]. - **Output**: Despite the production profit being around the break - even point, the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report also shows the historical trends of urea output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based urea output in China [27][28]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. The report provides cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, fluidized - bed, natural gas) of urea in Shanxi region [30]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the historical profit trends of different production processes of urea [35]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, the export policy has tightened. The report provides historical data on China's urea net import (export) volume from 2018 - 2025 [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. The demand for different crops in different regions and seasons is presented, and the high - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [46][49]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production gross profit, and inventory trends of compound fertilizers in China [53]. - **Melamine**: It presents the production gross profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate trends of melamine in China [57]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports show resilience. The report provides data on the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real estate construction and completion area [60]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. The upstream inventory accumulation pattern continues. As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from the previous week [63][66]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the historical price trends of large - granular urea FOB in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and large - granular urea CFR in Brazil [70][71][73].
新增利好因素兑现前 尿素仍坚挺震荡趋势为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-24 07:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong performance in the domestic futures market for urea, with the main contract rising by 1.52% to 1739.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 2 - The urea market is influenced by rumors regarding new export quotas, which could lead to a rapid decline in prices if proven false [2] - Production from gas-based enterprises is decreasing slightly due to ongoing maintenance, impacting daily output [2] - Demand remains resilient as winter storage continues, with factories primarily producing high-nitrogen compound fertilizers, providing some support for urea despite a lack of upward driving force [2] Group 3 - Inventory levels are decreasing but remain high compared to the same period over the past five years, with factory inventory at 117.97 thousand tons (down 5.45 thousand tons), port inventory at 13.8 thousand tons (up 1.5 thousand tons), and inventory in Guangxi and Guangdong at 14.6 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] Group 4 - The market focus is on the upcoming printing standards and changes in China's export policies, with rumors of new export quotas significantly affecting market sentiment [2] - Until new favorable factors are confirmed, the market is expected to maintain a strong and fluctuating trend, with attention on the results of printing standards and export expectations that may create short-term trading opportunities [2] - It is also important to monitor changes in urea supply levels, the atmosphere of spot transactions, overall commodity trends, and this week's urea inventory data [2]
国泰君安期货·能源化工尿素周度报告-20251214
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-14 10:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is weak, while the medium - term outlook is volatile. The driving force is currently neutral. With the suppression of speculative activities in the fertilizer sector by sulfur and phosphate policies, spot trading has weakened, and the price is expected to experience a short - term weak correction. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, the increase in warehouse receipts is significant, and the futures price is expected to face downward pressure in a volatile manner. The subsequent driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream inventory replenishment. The fundamental situation provides support for the price due to the continuous reduction of explicit inventory. The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support level is 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Production: In the week from December 4th to 10th, 2025, China's urea production was 1385,400 tons, a 0.02% increase from the previous period. Two new plants stopped production, and five restarted. Next week, the production is expected to be around 1.39 million tons, with limited fluctuations. In the next cycle, two plants are expected to stop production, and one may restart. The production capacity expansion pattern of urea in 2025 continues, with 664 million tons of new production capacity added in 2025 [2][23]. - Production Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has risen. The cash - flow cost of urea production currently corresponds to a profitable state [29][34]. - Import and Export: In the reserve period, export policies have tightened. As of December 11, the 50th week of 2025, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% increase from the previous week. The impact of urea exports on the market is weakening [2][40]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand is seasonally strong. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. The production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers show certain trends, and the capacity utilization rate also has fluctuations [46][49]. - Industrial Demand: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers, melamine, and the demand for panels in the real estate industry have different characteristics. The demand for panels in the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [55][56][61]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: On December 10th, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2342 million tons, a 4.36% decrease from the previous week. The inventory decreased in some provinces and increased in others [2][67]. - Port Inventory: The sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% increase from the previous week. The ports with increased inventory are Tianjin Port and Longkou Port for small - particle urea [2][67]. International Market - International Urea Prices: The report presents the price trends of Chinese large - particle urea FOB, Baltic large - particle urea FOB, Middle East large - particle urea FOB, and Brazilian large - particle urea CFR from 2018 to 2025 [70][71][72][73][74].