库存方面，据中辉期货介绍，库存去化，但仍处近近五年同期偏高位置，其中厂内库存117.97(-5.45)万 吨；港口库存13.8(+1.5)万吨；两广库存14.6万吨(环比持平)。 对于后市走势，光大期货表示，近期市场焦点仍在于印标及我国出口政策变化预期，新增出口配额传言 对市场情绪扰动明显，但消息来源需仔细甄别，政策需以官方为准。在新增利好因素兑现以前，盘面仍 以坚挺震荡趋势为主，关注印标结果及出口预期等因素共振带来的阶段性行情机会，另需关注尿素供应 水平变化、现货成交氛围、商品整体走势、本周尿素库存数据。 12月24日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，尿素期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约震荡上行 1.52%，报1739.00元/吨。 基本面来看，国投安信期货指出，尿素市场受出口新配额的传闻扰动，警惕传闻证伪后行情快速回落的 可能。气头企业检修陆续推进，日产小幅下降。 需求方面，冠通期货分析称，冬储继续推进，工厂对原料端需求有韧性，且目前以高氮复合肥生产为 主，对尿素支撑虽无向上驱动力，但维持刚性。 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期偏弱，中期震荡 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251204-1210)，中国尿素生产企业产量：138.54万吨，较上期涨0.03万吨，环比涨0.02%。周期内新增2家企业装置停车，5家停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期的装置变化，本周产量小幅波动。下周，中国尿素周产量预计139万吨附近，较本期小幅波动。下个周期预计2家企业装置计划停车，1家停车企业装置可能恢复生 | | | | 产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量变动的幅度有限。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，11月为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易商及 ...

需求减弱，尿素延续跌势 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年12月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 供应-全国：2025年第49周 (20251204-1210)，中国尿素分原料产能利用率：煤制尿素89.61%，环比涨2.91%；气制尿素55.23%，环 比跌9.89%。周期内新增1家煤制、1家气制企业装置停车，4家煤制、1家企业停车装置恢复生产，通过企业的开停时间计算、同时延续 上周期的变化，本周期煤制产能利用率上涨、气制产能利用率下跌。 供应-山东：2025年第49周 (20251204-1210)，山东尿素产能利用率81.28%，环比跌3.99%。周期内瑞星装置故障检修，其它企业生 产基本正常，延续上周期装置情况，产能利用率暂时下跌。 需求-三聚氰胺：2025年第50周(20251205-1211），中国三聚氰胺产能利用率周均值为61.86%，较上周提升0.2个百分点。 需求-复合肥：2025年第50周(20251205-1211)，复合肥本周期产能利用率在40.62%，环比提升0.0 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 8 日 尿素周报： 基本面偏强，盘面下跌有支撑 摘要： 上周尿素盘面反弹乏力，周一下挫低开。尿素现货市场来看，周 内尿素价格稳中上涨，虽高价订单成交有限，但企业待发充足，挺价意 愿强，周末以来，价格以稳运行，新单成交有限。基本面来看，上周尿 素产量下降，其中气头装置产量下降近 10%，主要系限气影响，后续预 计西南地区气头装置继续停车，上游供货压力有所缓解，成本端煤炭价 格旺季证伪，价格下移后，尿素价格支撑乏力。下游内需整体向好，本 期工厂开工负荷继续增加，同时厂内成品库存增加，目前产能利用率基 本接近于历史同期高位水平，预计开工继续上涨空间不足，后续以销定 产。目前东北地区入库量虽有减少，但同比去年偏高，12 月东北三省复 合肥工厂开工将继续有增加。其他工业需求受原料端的价格抑制，预计 后续上涨乏力。随着气头装置的不断停产，尿素高日产压力有所缓解， 且下游冬储、复合肥工厂、出口等需求增量依旧，尿素持续去化，去库 幅度增大。本周一尿素价格下挫，但限气、出口及冬储支撑下，难有大 幅下跌，移仓换月中，谨慎多空。 现货市场动态 尿素现货市场来看，周内尿素价格稳 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week's view was that high prices were being resisted and spot price increases were losing momentum; this week's view is that downstream demand is slowing and urea prices are correcting [3] - Market sentiment has cooled as factory prices have been continuously raised, with mainstream urea spot factory quotes in major regions being weakly stable and trading lackluster [3] - Gas - fired plants are starting to undergo maintenance, with a daily output of around 1.95 million tons. The impact of the Indian tender on domestic exports is small [3] - In the short term, domestic demand is stable, agricultural demand is rigid, compound fertilizer production is rising, and urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, overall demand will be weak, and the urea fundamentals remain loose [3] - Trading strategies: for single - sided trading, short at high prices but do not chase short positions; for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: High prices are being resisted, downstream demand is slowing, and the market sentiment is cooling. Gas - fired plants are under maintenance, and the Indian tender has little impact on domestic exports. Short - term demand is stable, while medium - term demand is weak [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Single - sided trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, wait - and - see [3] 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply**: In the 48th week of 2025 (20251127 - 1203), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 86.70%, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease; that of gas - based urea was 65.12%, a 6.65% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 85.27%, a 1.40% week - on - week increase [4] - **Demand**: In the 47th week of 2025 (20251114 - 1120), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.20%, a 4.72 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 34.61%, a 4.29 - percentage - point week - on - week increase. As of December 5, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 1210 tons, a 18.24% week - on - week decrease. This week (20251128 - 20251205), the urea arrival volume in Northeast China was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from the previous week. As of December 3, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, a 10.53% week - on - week increase [4] - **Inventory**: On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a 5.38% week - on - week decrease. As of December 4, 2025 (the 49th week), the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton week - on - week increase [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is weak, the decline of Yulin pulverized coal has widened, the urea spot price has rebounded, and the urea production profit has expanded. The fixed - bed production breaks even, the water - coal - slurry production has a profit of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 300 yuan/ton. The basis has converged to around 0 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data (Directory Items 7 - 20) - No detailed data content provided for these items, so no specific summary can be made.

国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：震荡回落 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251127-1203)，中国尿素生产企业产量：138.51万吨，较上期跌3.19万吨，环比跌2.25%。周期内新增5家企业装置停车，3家停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期的装置变化，本周产量明显减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计137万吨附近，较本期小幅减少。下个周期预计2家企业装置计划停车，3-5家停车企业装置可能恢复 | | | | 生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量变动的幅度不大。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，11月为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易商及复 | | 需求 | | 合肥厂连续补库，带 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range-bound with a bullish bias - Inter-period: Wait and see - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, and the spot price has been raised. The restart of shutdown plants in Shanxi and Hebei and the increase in the operating rate of large enterprises in Hubei have led to an overall increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers. The operating rate of melamine has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off-season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium- and long-term supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose, and the gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Driven by reserve demand and the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with inventory reduction at factories and a slight increase in port inventory. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia, and the reserve demand in the Northeast has increased, leading to inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Continued attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. The urea import tender of India's IPL closed on November 20, with the lowest CFR prices of $418.40/ton at the East Coast and $419.50/ton at the West Coast. A total of 24 suppliers' quantities were received, and the lowest price was higher than the previous one. Continuous attention should be paid to the sentiment and rhythm of domestic spot procurement. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,668 yuan/ton (+14). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was quoted at 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price in Shandong was 1,650 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small lump anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was -18 yuan/ton (+6), the basis in Henan was -18 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis in Jiangsu was -28 yuan/ton (+6). [1] Urea Production - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of November 27, 2025, the production profit of urea was 120 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,014 yuan/ton (+10). [1] Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. [2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06% (+2.45%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47). [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Urea spot new orders follow-up slowed down, and the futures market rose slightly due to export news. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is winding up, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. The overall operating rate remains stable. Melamine operating rate increased slightly, with rigid demand procurement. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, and inventory decreased. The high inventory area is still Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start-up rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light storage rhythm. The news of the fourth batch of 600,000 tons of export quotas has improved the year-end export expectation of urea, which is expected to support the spot market. India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tender on November 7, with an intention to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender will close on November 20, be valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 12, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,655 yuan/ton (+15). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was -55 yuan/ton (-25), in Henan was -45 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was -55 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (up 0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 12, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (-10), and the export profit was 930 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but the export profit is mentioned in the price and basis section, with an export profit of 930 yuan/ton (-1) on November 12, 2025 [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (unchanged), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (up 3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have declined from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The UR2601 contract basis is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.7%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are the strong international price and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is slightly down. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak. Export volume increases with large price difference, but domestic market is still oversupplied. Spot price of delivery product is 1570 (+0), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is -74, premium/discount ratio is -4.7%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today considering weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international prices and increasing export volume, but obvious domestic oversupply [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 with an 11.0% growth rate [9]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1570 with no change, Shandong spot price is 1580 with no change, Henan spot price is 1570 with no change, and FOB China price is 2690 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1644 (+11), the basis is -74 (-11), UR05 price is 1727 (+12), and UR09 price is 1750 (+11) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), the UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 11 million tons [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: After the export window period, conduct anti - arbitrage on UR01 - 05 when it reaches a high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the spot price breaks through the previous low, the transaction improves but the sustainability is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates weakly. With the rebound of the futures price, the transaction improves. Attention should be paid to the sentiment of order collection before the festival. The domestic demand is weak, the inventory in urea plants continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. The urea production remains at a high level, and the medium - and long - term supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is conducive to continuous exports, and the port inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][26] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It presents the production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][29] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The report includes the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and China, the difference between the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price in China, the urea export profit, and the futures export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [32][33][37] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the number of days of raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][48][54] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on the upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][54][57] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,673 yuan/ton (+15). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,610 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,620 yuan/ton (+0). The price of small anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (-15), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (-15). The urea production profit was 80 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,149 yuan/ton (+9) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of September 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.21% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 516,000 tons (-33,400 tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of September 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63% (+0.81%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 56.78% (+1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53) [1]