大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 8 月 19 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货午后增仓大涨，最终报收 1817（+62/+3.53%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价弱稳，成交一般，河南出厂报 1660-1680 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1680-1690 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1710 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1630-1640 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1540-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】8 月 19 日，尿素行业日产 19.84 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.2 万吨；较去 年同期增加 3.01 万吨；今日开工 85.70%，较去年同期 76.31%提升 9.39%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价平稳，成交转弱。山东地区 主流出厂报价窄幅反弹，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单 成交乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价暂稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价暂稳， 贸易商观望 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, the urea futures market first rose and then fell. Affected by the high price of the Indian tender and the opening of exports to India, the market soared and then declined. The downstream's ability to bear high prices is insufficient. Although there is demand resilience, there is no willingness to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being. It is mainly based on replenishing stocks at low prices. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer factories, the downside space for urea is limited, and it will mainly undergo weak consolidation in the short term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, affected by the rising futures price, the Indian tender price, and export news, the trading atmosphere in the urea spot market was hot, and the spot price increased. In the second half of the week, the export situation was less than expected, and the downstream support was insufficient, so the price stabilized and declined. Since the weekend, the downstream trading has been mediocre, and the price has mainly been adjusted downward [3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume of the main contract last week was 15.6933 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 163,000 tons; the open interest was 5.7222 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 370,600 tons. After the Indian tender price increased and China opened the export of urea to India, the futures price soared to a high of 1,791 yuan/ton, but then the export volume was less than expected, and the futures price corrected. Last week, the decline of urea futures was weaker than that of the spot, and the basis weakened [5] Urea Supply - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly output of urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.87%; the average daily output was 189,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 tons. It is expected that no enterprise's equipment will be shut down next week, and one shut-down enterprise will resume production. As of August 11, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,700 tons, and the operating rate was 81.62% [12] Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat compared to the previous week. As of August 8, the quotation of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, with an increasing operating load. Sales are mainly based on pre-sales orders, and the finished product inventory in the factories is continuously increasing. Due to the general bearish sentiment in the market and the lack of preparations for large-scale inventory replenishment by compound fertilizer factories, the purchase of raw material urea is mainly based on buying at low prices and making appropriate replenishments. At present, the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. From August 1 to August 7, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week and 2.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From August 1 to August 7, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 61.1%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period and 11.85 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, the number of shut-down and maintenance equipment increased during the week, and the downstream demand was weak. It is expected that the operating load will continue to decline in the short term [17] Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 3.24%, and 563,300 tons higher than the same period last year. During the week, the urea output decreased, and the downstream's low-price purchasing increased, so the inventory in the urea factories decreased. It is expected that the urea inventory will continue to decline next week. The inventory of the port samples was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As the export goods gradually left the port, the port inventory decreased [19] International Market - China will export a limited quantity of urea to India, with an expected export volume of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. The price of the IPL Indian tender is higher than the market expectation, and India's demand for urea is still increasing. It is expected that a new tender will be launched in September. Except for India and Brazil, the demand in other global markets has declined to varying degrees. It is expected that the international urea price will have a correction trend before the new demand from these two countries emerges. As of August 8, the FOB price of small-grain urea in China was reported at $460/ton, a week-on-week increase of $50/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was reported at $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $512.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $457.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton. As of August 8, the FOB price of large-grain urea in China was reported at $467.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $30/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in Egypt was $502.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $12.5/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Arabian Gulf was $456.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Baltic Sea was $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $15/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $465/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7.5/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was reported at $446.5/ton, a week-on-week decrease of $12.5/ton [21]

作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 尿素周报2025/7/18 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 关注出口变化 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量有所下滑；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥秋季预收开 | | | 偏多 | 始，开工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，关注出口政策变化。 | | 月差 | 中性 偏多 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言出口指导价提高，新一轮出口额度释放，但目前并不大幅放开出口的确定消息。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业收单平稳，成交不温不火。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移，出口需求支撑当前尿素价格。 | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步提升； ...

，部分尿素企业库存加速下降，虽然局部尿素库存增减不一，但整体库存仍以下降为主，但当下尿素企业 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 库存远高于往年同期。前期出口订单执行进入后期，尿素整体去库速度或减弱，不过出口预期存在，对价 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 格仍有支撑。UR2509合约短线建议在1750-1830区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit at high levels [3] Core View - The total inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 72,200 tons to 896,000 tons. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase due to good urea exports and increased port collection willingness. The production of urea enterprises remained high with few maintenance plans. Currently in the peak agricultural demand season, agricultural demand continued to advance, the start - up of compound fertilizers increased, and the demand for urea showed a phased increase. Industrial demand remained weak [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [1][7][8] 2. Urea Production - It includes figures of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - It includes figures of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [18][20] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - It includes figures of the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, and urea export profit and disk export profit [23][25][32] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - It includes figures of compound fertilizer start - up rate, melamine start - up rate, and urea enterprise advance order days [1][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, and futures warehouse receipts [2][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, domestic demand for urea is weak while exports provide support, showing an oscillating trend. In the short term, it will mainly move in an oscillating manner without obvious driving forces. In the short term, due to continuously weak spot transactions, it may face pressure and oscillate [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,764 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,761 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume was 181,747 lots, an increase of 9,486 lots; the open interest was 197,992 lots, an increase of 206 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 2,630 tons, a decrease of 15 tons; the trading volume was 639,981 ten thousand yuan, an increase of 28,236 ten thousand yuan. The basis in Shandong region was 56 yuan, down 31 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was -64 yuan, down 11 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 26 yuan, down 1 yuan. The spread between UR09 and UR01 was 33 yuan, down 6 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea plants remained unchanged, while Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 20 yuan to 1,700 yuan/ton, and Hebei Dongguang decreased by 10 yuan to 1,790 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong region decreased by 40 yuan to 1,820 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi region remained unchanged at 1,720 yuan/ton. The operating rate was 85.98%, unchanged, and the daily output was 199,060 tons, unchanged [1] Industry News - On July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. During this period, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, and some urea plants continued to execute previous export orders. Domestic industrial demand was weak, and local agricultural demand increased incrementally. The shipment of urea plants varied significantly, and inventory changes were different among regions [2] - In the short term, the domestic demand is weak, and exports provide support, showing an oscillating trend. In the short term, due to continuously weak spot transactions, it may face pressure and oscillate. In early July, the fundamentals of urea are expected to improve marginally. There will be concentrated maintenance on the supply side, with a decline in the operating rate and daily output. On the demand side, traders are gradually picking up goods for export, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. The pressure of factories' pending orders and inventory is not large, and spot quotes are slightly rising. Additional export quotas may gradually be implemented, increasing the export volume. However, domestic agricultural demand is coming to an end, and fundamental pressure is gradually increasing, significantly suppressing the upward price space [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand was weak and ex - factory prices fell collectively. This week's view is that demand still lacks support and ex - factory prices are running weakly. Market sentiment remains weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are stable with a downward trend [4]. - The daily output remains above 200,000 tons, at the highest level in the same period. The domestic supply is large, the demand is declining, and the urea enterprises are in the inventory accumulation stage again. The ex - factory price of urea has fallen to around 1,770 - 1,780 yuan/ton, and the market is pessimistic about the future, remaining weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the results of next week's Indian tender [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment is weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea in Shandong, Henan, and surrounding areas of the delivery area are expected to decline. The export details have been announced, but the domestic supply is large, and the overall demand is declining [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 22nd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0604), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 92.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86%; that of gas - based urea was 78.15%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 85.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2.21% [5]. - Demand: In the 23rd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0605), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from last week; the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer dropped to 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 6.67% from last week. As of June 6, 2025, the urea demand of Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1,180 tons, a week - on - week increase of 68.57%. As of June 4, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.47 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from the previous period [5]. - Inventory: As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons from last week. The sample inventory of urea ports was 205,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weakly stable, the price of Yulin pulverized coal fell, and the urea spot price fell. The profit of fixed - bed production was 140 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 340 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 570 yuan/ton. The futures fell sharply, the basis was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread converged to 50 yuan/ton [5].

Report Summary 1. Futures Market - The UR2509 contract had a high of 1904, a low of 1725, and closed at 1882 on May 8, with a weekly increase of 7.05% [5] 2. Regional Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices varied by region For example, Shandong's (cash - on - delivery ex - factory) price closed at 1805, down 0.25% week - on - week; Guangxi's closed at 1980, up 1.74% week - on - week; and the national average closed at 1829, down 0.89% week - on - week [7] 3. International Market - For small - particle urea, FOB prices in the Black Sea and Baltic increased by 1.13% and 1.14% respectively, while FOB China decreased by 2.43% CFR Brazil increased by 3.27% [8] - For large - particle urea, FOB Middle East net price increased by 6.62%, and FOB Middle East (US source net reverse calculation) increased by 4.89% [8] - Other international prices also had different changes, such as FOB Iran down 1.32% and Venezuela/Trinidad up 4.05% [9] 4. Inventory - Yantai port inventory was 5.5 on May 8, up 3.77% from April 24 and down 36.05% year - on - year - Total port urea inventory was 12.3, up 6.96% from April 24 and down 38.81% year - on - year - Domestic enterprise inventory was 95.25, down 6.80% from April 24 and up 133.46% year - on - year [10]