尿素日报 | 2025-09-23 低价成交放量，关注节前收单情况 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-22，尿素主力收盘1660元/吨（-1）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1620 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1620元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1630元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-40 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：-40元/吨（-19）；江苏基差：-30元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润90元/吨（-20），出口利润1121 元/吨（-41）。 供应端：截至2025-09-22，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-22，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收单情绪。目前 部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货积极性不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of an increase in urea production is high due to few short - term maintenance plans and some device restarts, despite a recent slight decrease in daily output caused by new device maintenance. [3] - Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly with limited rigid demand, and the autumn fertilizer production stage has begun. The compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is rising steadily but slowly, and the melamine operating rate has rebounded but may be restricted by weak downstream demand. [3] - Some urea enterprise inventories are decreasing rapidly, and the overall inventory is mainly decreasing, though still much higher than the same period in previous years. The overall inventory reduction speed may weaken as previous export orders enter the later stage, but export expectations still support the price. [3] - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1812 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 32 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. [3] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 195,949 lots, up 7,222 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,247 lots, down 605 lots. [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 2,523 lots, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1770, 1810, 1810, 1830, and 1820 yuan/ton respectively, all with varying increases. [3] - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main port are 437.5 and 435 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 25 US dollars. [3] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 18 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan. [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.1 tons, up 5.2 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 89.55 tons, down 7.22 tons week - on - week. [3] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 84.46%, down 0.8%; the daily urea output is 195,500 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] - The urea export volume is 0, with no change; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 32.55%, up 2.72%; the melamine operating rate is 64.24%, up 1.68%. [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 91 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 490 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan. [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 416.82 tons, down 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,900 tons, up 900 tons. [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.22 tons or 7.46%. [3] - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 tons or 10.63%. [3] - As of July 17, China's urea output was 136.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31 tons or 0.95%, and the average daily output was 19.55 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, down 0.80%. [3] 3.6 Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday. [3]