Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 long - short spread trading on the low side [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - Some regions are affected by snow and rain, with logistics disrupted and the market trading atmosphere cooling down. Spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Manufacturers lower prices to attract orders and trading improves. Supply increases as some gas - based and technological - reform enterprises resume production in January. Demand from winter and spring fertilizers and off - season storage procurement are in progress. The resumption of compound fertilizer and melamine production boosts procurement. Both agricultural and industrial demand improve, leading to faster sales of urea enterprises and a reduction in factory and port inventories. International urea prices rise due to the Iranian situation, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas. Future attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 20, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1775 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1750 yuan/ton (0), 1750 yuan/ton (+0) in Shandong, and 1760 yuan/ton (+0) in Jiangsu. The basis in Shandong was - 25 yuan/ton (- 3), - 25 yuan/ton (- 3) in Henan, and - 15 yuan/ton (- 3) in Jiangsu [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 20, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.25% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of January 20, 2026, the urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of January 20, 2026, the export profit was 860 yuan/ton (+9) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 20, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.08% (+2.91%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.18% (+7.83%). The pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (- 0.35) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 20, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 98.61 million tons (- 3.61), and the inventory of port samples was 12.90 million tons (- 0.60) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high, but the agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season with lukewarm overall trading atmosphere. The downstream is resistant to high - price goods and mostly adopts a just - in - time procurement strategy. The industrial sector maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly, and the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1774 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 230,249 lots, down 6,626 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 17,040. The exchange warehouse receipts are 13,355 sheets, up 155 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu and Shandong are 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 53 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. FOB Baltic is 367.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China main port is 402.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.0222 million tons, up 3,000 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 2.93%. The daily urea output is 195,900 tons, up 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.17%, up 3.28%. The melamine operating rate is 54.35%, up 6.7%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 244 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 152 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, down 1,900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, up 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly this period, with local inventory rising or falling differently. As of January 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 140,000 tons, down 18.60% week - on - week. The departure volume of port goods increases this week, and some ports are loading and leaving. Due to the slow pace of factory goods gathering at ports and quota restrictions, most ports maintain a low level. As of January 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3716 million tons, up 0.92% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate is 83.22%, up 2.93% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for the urea trading strategy, it suggests a unilateral strategy of a range - bound and bullish trend, a cross - period strategy of waiting and seeing, and no cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, with spot prices rising, but new orders may slow down. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. The export expectation at the end of the year has improved, which is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the domestic spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On December 1, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1675 yuan/ton (-2). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1680 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1690 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1680 yuan/ton (+20). The basis in Shandong was 15 yuan/ton (+22), in Henan was 5 yuan/ton (+22), and in Jiangsu was 5 yuan/ton (+22) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of December 1, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On December 1, 2025, the urea production profit was 160 yuan/ton (+20). The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 37.06% (+2.45%), and the operating rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 952 yuan/ton (-40). In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, which improves the year - end export expectation [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 1, 2025, the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00). The domestic high - inventory area is Inner Mongolia, and inventory in Inner Mongolia has decreased [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers reduce prices to attract orders. After the spot price breaks through the previous low, the trading volume improves. The spot price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving sentiment before the holiday. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. The medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand on a month - on - month basis [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [7][8][14] Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [19][22] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, on - disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][26] Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - sized urea in China, the difference between overseas and Chinese FOB prices, urea export profit, and on - disk export profit [29][32][35] Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract positions, and main contract trading volume [49][52][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of an increase in urea production is high due to few short - term maintenance plans and some device restarts, despite a recent slight decrease in daily output caused by new device maintenance. [3] - Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly with limited rigid demand, and the autumn fertilizer production stage has begun. The compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is rising steadily but slowly, and the melamine operating rate has rebounded but may be restricted by weak downstream demand. [3] - Some urea enterprise inventories are decreasing rapidly, and the overall inventory is mainly decreasing, though still much higher than the same period in previous years. The overall inventory reduction speed may weaken as previous export orders enter the later stage, but export expectations still support the price. [3] - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1812 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 32 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. [3] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 195,949 lots, up 7,222 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,247 lots, down 605 lots. [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 2,523 lots, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1770, 1810, 1810, 1830, and 1820 yuan/ton respectively, all with varying increases. [3] - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main port are 437.5 and 435 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 25 US dollars. [3] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 18 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan. [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.1 tons, up 5.2 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 89.55 tons, down 7.22 tons week - on - week. [3] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 84.46%, down 0.8%; the daily urea output is 195,500 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] - The urea export volume is 0, with no change; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 32.55%, up 2.72%; the melamine operating rate is 64.24%, up 1.68%. [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 91 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 490 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan. [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 416.82 tons, down 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,900 tons, up 900 tons. [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.22 tons or 7.46%. [3] - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 tons or 10.63%. [3] - As of July 17, China's urea output was 136.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31 tons or 0.95%, and the average daily output was 19.55 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, down 0.80%. [3] 3.6 Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday. [3]