尿素日报 | 2025-09-30 区域收单分化，尿素价格趋稳 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-29，尿素主力收盘1664元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1610 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1600元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1600元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-64 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：-54元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：-64元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润70元/吨（+0），出口利润1070 元/吨（-88）。 供应端：截至2025-09-29，企业产能利用率85.58%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为121.82 万吨（+5.29），港口样本 库存量为49.63 万吨（-1.97）。 需求端：截至2025-09-29，复合肥产能利用率35.27%（-3.36%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为60.58%（+3.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（+0.53）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，山东河南价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性弱，国庆节前采购情绪难以维持高 位，区域出现分化，上游厂家整体收单尚可，预计后续价格稳定为主。目前部分地区农业秋季 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the influence of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have cut prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and transactions have improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although some companies are expected to conduct maintenance and the output may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 27, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,737 yuan/ton (+0). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0), in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (+0), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%). Some companies such as Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to conduct maintenance, and the output may decline slightly. But with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of urea was 170 yuan/ton (+0). As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,292 yuan/ton (+5). India's NFL issued a urea import tender, and the tender will close on September 2. This tender requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84% (-2.64%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60% (-3.22%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (+0.00) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 501,000 tons (+37,000 tons) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The continuous decline of the urea futures price is mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. The agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains at a high level, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and an upstream inventory of about 930,000 tons. - Although the current export policy is unclear, under the situation of sufficient domestic supply and low prices, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply. However, it is necessary to prevent the urea price from rising too rapidly in the short term, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. - It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the price decline. (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - On August 25, UR01 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35% from August 22; UR05 closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.39%; UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.06%. The prices in Shandong and Shanxi also showed different changes, with Shandong down 40 yuan (- 2.30%) and 20 yuan (- 1.23%) respectively [1]. Spot Price - Domestic spot prices in different regions generally declined on August 25 compared with August 22. For example, in Henan, the price dropped 40 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 2.29%); in Hebei, it dropped 40 yuan to 1730 yuan/ton (- 2.26%); in Jiangsu, it dropped 30 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 1.72%), while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 89 yuan/ton on August 25, down 47 yuan from August 22. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 44 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S), melamine in different regions also remained stable [1]. Trading Information of the Main Contract - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1754 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1735 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1746 yuan/ton. The position volume was 222,940 lots [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The urea futures market has been falling for two consecutive days due to uncertainties in exports and real domestic supply - demand pressures. With agricultural demand in the off - season and domestic supply at a high level (daily production of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons), exports can help relieve the high - supply pressure. However, short - term excessive price increases should be guarded against as it may go against the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities after price corrections. (View score: 0) [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices on August 21st: UR01 was 1764 yuan/ton (-12 yuan or -0.56% compared to August 20th), UR09 was 1737 yuan/ton (-14 yuan or -0.80%), UR05 was 1797 yuan/ton (-13 yuan or -0.72%). Spot prices in some regions also declined, e.g., in Henan and Jiangsu, it dropped by 20 yuan/ton or -1.12%. [1] Key Information on Trading - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1790 yuan/ton, the highest was 1794 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1762 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1764 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1773 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 205,717 lots. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan was stable at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong was unchanged at 5250 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it increased by 200 yuan/ton to 5300 yuan/ton (3.92% increase). [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities after price corrections. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The impact of the Indian tender on market sentiment is gradually subsiding. Looking at domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level. Although the increase in enterprise inventory accumulation is not significant due to the increase in port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 780,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On August 8th, compared with August 7th, UR01, UR05, and UR09 futures prices decreased by -0.34%, -0.50%, and -0.52% respectively. Among domestic spot prices, the price in Henan decreased by -0.56%, while the price in Hebei (small - granular) increased by 0.57%. Prices in Shanxi, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan/ton [1] 3. Upstream Costs and Downstream Prices - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.45%, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 4. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1738 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1748 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1727 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1728 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 108,076 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - India's IPL urea import tender price has jumped, exceeding market expectations, boosting the export demand of the domestic market. The urea resources have been continuously gathered at ports in the past month, and the current port inventory exceeds 500,000 tons. However, in terms of domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with the daily output close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory accumulation of enterprises is not significant, mainly affected by the increase in port - gathering. The upstream enterprise inventory is still about 750,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If the export demand cannot be supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure. (View score: 0) [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On August 6, compared with August 5, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.84%), in Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.61%); UR05 decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.44%); UR09 decreased by 22 yuan/ton (-1.24%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Henan (small - particle), it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%); in Hebei, it increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.72%); in Northeast China, it remained unchanged; in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Yunnan and Shanxi remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The melamine price in Shandong increased by 60 yuan/ton (1.20%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 18 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread**: The spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1]

Report Title - Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] Report Date - June 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The loosening of export policies provides short - term support, but the high domestic inventory, scattered agricultural top - dressing, and weak industrial demand mean that the loose supply - demand situation has not been substantially reversed [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental and Viewpoints - Market rumors suggest that China's urea export quota has increased by about 2 million tons. The relief of international supply shortages and the boost from Indian tenders support domestic prices [4] - Shanxi enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, reducing the national daily production to 197,400 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease, and inventory has decreased by 6.9% week - on - week, alleviating pressure [4] - The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has dropped to a low level. The end of summer fertilizer has led to a decline in industrial demand, and end - users have strong resistance to high prices [4] - International crude oil prices have dropped by 7.2% in a week, breaking through $70 per barrel. The sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has weakened, and the weak operation of coal has weakened cost support [4] Urea Fundamental Data - Multiple data charts are presented, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, urea futures main contract positions and trading volume, urea warehouse receipt quantity and effective forecasts, market prices and basis of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, price differences between large and small - sized urea, seasonal price differences between different urea contracts, production costs and profits of different urea production methods, production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rates of urea and compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer inventory, production costs and profits of compound fertilizer in Shandong, FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, spot prices of thermal coal, and thermal coal port inventory [7][10][17][28][38][43][47]