Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall view on urea is neutral to slightly bullish. The supply side has an extremely high historical operating rate, and the geopolitical situation has significantly boosted export profits, but there are no new export quotas. After the holiday, the compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded but not exceeded expectations. Industrial demand is temporarily strong but may weaken later. Overall, domestic supply and demand are loose, but the international situation has increased potential export demand, deepening the pattern of strong domestic and international urea markets. Prices may fluctuate with the situation [3]. - Affected by the energy situation, the far - month export expectation has increased, and the monthly spread may weaken [3]. - There were no important policies introduced this week [3]. - After the holiday, the domestic supply - demand situation was relatively loose. With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, the international natural gas price pushed up the international urea price, and domestic trading became more active. Even without the opening of exports, domestic urea prices turned bullish [3][8]. - Enterprise inventories decreased slightly this week, but due to sufficient pre - holiday inventory distribution and no unexpected downstream demand, it is difficult for enterprise inventories to continue to decline [3]. - Export profits have strengthened significantly, but there are currently no new export quotas [3][31]. - Domestic demand maintains the normal procurement rhythm for spring plowing, but the international situation has pushed up international urea and other fertilizer prices, indirectly affecting domestic urea supply and demand. The demand for melamine and panels has been okay recently. Overall, the high - priced international urea may gradually and indirectly boost domestic urea demand [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - After the holiday, the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. In the first half of last week, urea spot prices were stable to slightly weak. In the second half, with the escalation of the geopolitical situation, international natural gas prices pushed up international urea prices, and domestic trading became active. Even without export liberalization, domestic urea prices turned bullish [4][8]. - Affected by the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, inquiries for ammonium chloride increased. Soda ash enterprises had sufficient orders and no inventory pressure, and the atmosphere of reluctant to sell was strong. The ammonium sulfate market was affected by the continuous increase in international fertilizer prices due to the geopolitical situation, with high enthusiasm for auctions, and raw material factories began to hold back supplies [12]. - International urea export profits have further increased under the influence of the geopolitical situation, but there are currently no new export quotas [31]. Operating Rate - The next - period urea daily production is expected to remain above 210,000 tons. The operating rate will remain above 90%. Recently, one enterprise's device is planned to stop production, and 1 - 2 enterprises may resume production, with the operating rate remaining at an absolute high [40][44]. Inventory - Last week, urea enterprise inventories decreased by 6.62% month - on - month. After a significant increase after the holiday, inventories declined again as spring plowing started and the compound fertilizer operating rate increased. Port inventories have reached a low point. Without changes in export policies, port inventories may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [52]. Export - There are no new export quotas for urea currently [60]. Demand - Compound fertilizer enterprises' post - holiday sales are progressing normally. They had sufficient pre - holiday raw material purchases, and post - holiday demand has not increased significantly. The post - holiday compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded rapidly, but the year - on - year increase is small [78][84]. - Domestic melamine prices have recently increased, but downstream demand has not kept up. Traders still follow the "buy on rising" mentality. Some enterprises have recently resumed production, and with sufficient supply, the increase in melamine prices may be limited [94]. Cost and Related Products - Coal prices have been stable with a slight increase recently. Coal - based enterprises have good profits and may continue to maintain a high operating rate [125]. - The synthetic ammonia market is mainly in a stable adjustment state. The overall supply is abundant, and demand recovery is less than expected. Except in some areas where good demand has driven up urea prices, prices in other areas are mainly determined by downstream factors, and the market has a strong wait - and - see atmosphere [135]. Futures - The futures price is oscillating upward, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is weak. In March, the number of registered warehouse receipts began to increase significantly, and enterprise inventories decreased slightly [143][165]. Balance Sheet - The operating rate has been high for a long time, so the production volume expectations for the next two months have been raised. The demand for urea from compound fertilizers is weak, so the demand for urea from compound fertilizers has been lowered [170]. - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, import, total demand, various demand components, export, surplus, year - on - year changes in production, supply, and consumption from May 2025 to December 2026 [168].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Urea prices showed a pattern of opening low and rising, followed by an afternoon correction. Quotes remained stable, but transaction prices softened slightly. With the resumption of gas - based plants, daily production reached around 220,000 tons. The inventory of urea decreased by 6.62% this period. Although a large - scale urea plant in Qatar has stopped production and there are shipping issues in some regions, the international price has no impact on the domestic market in the short term. Due to the nitrogen association's guiding price and strong price - holding intention of upstream factories during the farming season, the urea market will have a narrow - range adjustment in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened low and rose, then corrected in the afternoon. Quotes were stable, but transaction prices softened slightly. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were still in the range of 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [1][5]. - The daily production of urea reached around 220,000 tons with the resumption of gas - based plants, and there were no long - term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. The start - up load of compound fertilizer plants increased, but the growth rate was lower year - on - year due to environmental inspections in Hebei. The inventory of urea decreased, mainly because of the continued agricultural demand and increased pick - up of goods by industrial demand. The inventory in Shandong and Henan, the main delivery areas, decreased, with an overall reduction of 6.62% this period [1]. - The 5.8 - million - ton - per - year urea plant of Qatar Energy Company has stopped production. The urea plants in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates are operating normally, but shipping is not smooth. However, since there is no chance of export liberalization in the short term, the international urea price does not affect the domestic market. The price is suppressed by the nitrogen association's guiding price, and upstream factories have a strong intention to hold prices during the farming season, with smooth terminal sales. There is no short - term driving force, and urea will have a narrow - range adjustment [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,818 yuan/ton, opened low and rose, then corrected in the afternoon, and finally closed at 1,814 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.71%. The trading volume was 248,510 lots, a decrease of 12,723 lots. In the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions decreased by 6,158 lots, and short positions decreased by 9,778 lots. Among them, Huatai Futures had a net long position of + 1,671 lots, Everbright Futures had a net long position of + 1,197 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of + 2,158 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of - 1,673 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Quotes remained stable, but transaction prices softened slightly. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were still in the range of 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [5]. - **Warehouse receipts**: On March 5, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 1,275, the same as the previous trading day [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotes rose, while the futures closing price fell. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was 36 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2 yuan/ton) [8]. - **Supply data**: On March 5, 2026, the daily production of urea in China was 220,600 tons, an increase of 170 tons compared with the previous day, and the start - up rate was 88.42% [9]. - **Enterprise inventory data**: As of March 6, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0981 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.71 days, an increase of 0.59 days compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.29% [13]. - **Downstream data**: From February 27 to March 5, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.02%, a decrease of 4.77 percentage points compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.45%, a decrease of 6.46 percentage points compared with last week [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply situation has slightly improved, but the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level in December. The port inventory build - up will continue, and there is a risk of further price rebounds due to potential increased overhauls [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The U.S. Department of Energy postponed data release due to the Christmas holiday. INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.10 yuan/barrel, or 0.02%, to 442.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 15.00 yuan/ton, or 0.61%, to 2489.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, or 0.33%, to 3016.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 35 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 2.5 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2162 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 23 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 30 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities generally rose, and rubber prices increased significantly. Rubber winter - storage buying demand is a bullish factor. Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls focus on factors such as limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and potential under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire inventory increased. As of December 14, 2025, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 1.152 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons, or 2.6%. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed. [9][10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 24 yuan to 4757 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 277 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 120 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of ethylene was 745 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of caustic soda was 715 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton). The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%; the calcium - carbide method was 77.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. Factory inventory was 329,000 tons (down 16,000 tons), and social inventory was 1.057 million tons (down 3,000 tons) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5315 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5434 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton (widened by 27 yuan/ton). The spot price of styrene rose 25 yuan/ton to 6625 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active styrene contract rose 40 yuan/ton to 6638 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 13 yuan/ton (weakened by 15 yuan/ton). The BZN spread was 127.75 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton), the non - integrated EB device profit was - 198.35 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton (narrowed by 19 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 139,300 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6390 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6325 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 65 yuan/ton (strengthened by 68 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%. The production enterprise inventory was 458,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,200 tons; the trader inventory was 32,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,200 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 16 yuan/ton (strengthened by 12 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. The production enterprise inventory was 533,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the trader inventory was 187,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,100 tons; the port inventory was 68,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 64 yuan to 7358 yuan, the PX CFR rose 5 US dollars to 901 US dollars, and the basis was 24 yuan (up 43 yuan) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was 4 yuan (down 12 yuan). The PX load: China's load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous month; Asia's load was 78.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. In terms of devices, Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, a 260,000 - ton device of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 200,000 - ton device of Idemitsu was restarting. The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of December, an increase of 8,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 361 US dollars (up 7 US dollars), South Korea's PX - MX was 154 US dollars (unchanged), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (down 1 US dollar) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 58 yuan to 5152 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 5050 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (up 6 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was 94 yuan (up 16 yuan). The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 19 was 2.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market rose 16 yuan to 325 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract was unchanged at 3818 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 3653 yuan, the basis was - 8 yuan (up 5 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 73 yuan (down 11 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 72.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on December 24 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 969 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1052 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan. The cost of ethylene was unchanged at 745 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is weak, while the medium - term outlook is volatile. The driving force is currently neutral. With the suppression of speculative activities in the fertilizer sector by sulfur and phosphate policies, spot trading has weakened, and the price is expected to experience a short - term weak correction. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, the increase in warehouse receipts is significant, and the futures price is expected to face downward pressure in a volatile manner. The subsequent driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream inventory replenishment. The fundamental situation provides support for the price due to the continuous reduction of explicit inventory. The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support level is 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Production: In the week from December 4th to 10th, 2025, China's urea production was 1385,400 tons, a 0.02% increase from the previous period. Two new plants stopped production, and five restarted. Next week, the production is expected to be around 1.39 million tons, with limited fluctuations. In the next cycle, two plants are expected to stop production, and one may restart. The production capacity expansion pattern of urea in 2025 continues, with 664 million tons of new production capacity added in 2025 [2][23]. - Production Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has risen. The cash - flow cost of urea production currently corresponds to a profitable state [29][34]. - Import and Export: In the reserve period, export policies have tightened. As of December 11, the 50th week of 2025, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% increase from the previous week. The impact of urea exports on the market is weakening [2][40]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand is seasonally strong. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. The production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers show certain trends, and the capacity utilization rate also has fluctuations [46][49]. - Industrial Demand: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers, melamine, and the demand for panels in the real estate industry have different characteristics. The demand for panels in the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [55][56][61]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: On December 10th, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2342 million tons, a 4.36% decrease from the previous week. The inventory decreased in some provinces and increased in others [2][67]. - Port Inventory: The sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% increase from the previous week. The ports with increased inventory are Tianjin Port and Longkou Port for small - particle urea [2][67]. International Market - International Urea Prices: The report presents the price trends of Chinese large - particle urea FOB, Baltic large - particle urea FOB, Middle East large - particle urea FOB, and Brazilian large - particle urea CFR from 2018 to 2025 [70][71][72][73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment for urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics. The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. A further price drop may reduce upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward momentum for urea due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Potential future drivers include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota allocations [1]. - The recommended trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1625 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12%; UR09 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices mostly decreased. For example, Shandong dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1590 yuan/ton (-0.63%), Hebei dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1610 yuan/ton (-0.62%), and Jiangsu dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1580 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained stable [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was -113 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged at -78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1627 yuan/ton, the highest was 1637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1623 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1625 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1629 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 264103 hands [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The strategy is to continue holding the previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current valuation of urea is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. There is insufficient upward drive in the short term, and the main factors to be concerned about are the renovation of old chemical devices on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: The closing price on October 30 was 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.03% from October 29 [1]. - UR05: The closing price on October 30 was 1705 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.70% from October 29 [1]. - UR09: The closing price on October 30 was 1735 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.69% from October 29 [1]. Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: The price on October 30 was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Henan: The price on October 30 was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Hebei: The price on October 30 was 1620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61% from October 29 [1]. - Northeast: The price on October 30 was 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 1590 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR: The value on October 30 was - 105 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from October 29 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: The value on October 30 was - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from October 29 [1]. Upstream Cost - Anthracite price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 1030 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Anthracite price in Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Downstream Price - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 5084 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1618 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1627 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1632 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 270109 hands [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply-demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived yet. The current low valuation reflects the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a five-year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self-clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Future potential driving factors include the expectation of old equipment renovation in the chemical industry on the supply side and the possibility of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 in Shanxi decreased from 1640.00 yuan/ton to 1635.00 yuan/ton (-0.30%), UR05 decreased from 1713.00 yuan/ton to 1708.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%), and UR09 decreased from 1745.00 yuan/ton to 1736.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Northeast China, it increased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton (0.63%); in Jiangsu, it decreased from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton (-0.62%); prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from -103.00 yuan/ton to -98.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1] 4. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900.00 yuan/ton and 2500.00 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong remained unchanged at 5084.00 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu, it increased from 5100.00 yuan/ton to 5150.00 yuan/ton (0.98%) [1] 5. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1636 yuan/ton, the highest was 1645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273001 lots [1] 6. Trading Strategy - Hold the previously sold out-of-the-money put options (Viewpoint Score: 0) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term stabilization of agricultural demand is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand for urea. Urea price rebounds are blocked, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down on the day. The domestic spot market was mainly stable, with factories mostly fulfilling previous orders, and demand was slightly weaker than in previous days. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan, and large orders from individual manufacturers were still negotiable [1][4] - The daily production of urea has rebounded slightly recently, but there are still factories under inspection and shutdown, so the output fluctuation is small. Due to the increasing losses of gas - fired units, Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down. With the approaching of winter gas and production restrictions, the daily production of gas - fired units is expected to decline next month. The profit of coal - water slurry process has continuously declined, and there is cost support below the urea futures price [1] - As time progresses, after the agricultural demand, the finished product inventory of factories is gradually being depleted, but it is still slightly higher than the previous period last year. Northeast compound fertilizer is expected to gradually start production in late November. As the autumn fertilizer production is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start. The inventory accumulation rate in factories has decreased, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory is expected to climb moderately [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1636 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, closing down on the day, and finally closed at 1635 yuan/ton, forming a negative line, with a change rate of - 0.37% and a position of 273001 lots (- 8953 lots) [2] - On October 28, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2970, a decrease of 2318 from the previous trading day. Among the top 20 major positions in the main contract, long positions decreased by 5539 lots and short positions decreased by 6215 lots. Rongda Futures had a net long position of + 695 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of - 649 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of + 2287 lots, and CICC Wealth had a net short position of - 1014 lots [2] Spot - The domestic spot market was mainly stable, with factories mostly fulfilling previous orders, and demand was slightly weaker than in previous days. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan, and large orders from individual manufacturers were still negotiable [4] Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [7] 3. Fundamental Tracking - On October 28, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190400 tons, unchanged from yesterday, with an operating rate of 80.45% [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market of urea has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan fell below the previous lows, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was weak. Before the National Day, the purchasing sentiment was difficult to maintain at a high level, showing regional differentiation. The overall order intake of upstream manufacturers was okay, and the subsequent prices are expected to be mainly stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start time of demand in the Northeast. In the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. In September, the export window period is still ongoing, and the export of urea is accelerating. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On September 29, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,664 yuan/ton (-5); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); the basis in Shandong was - 64 yuan/ton (-5); the basis in Henan was - 54 yuan/ton (+5); the basis in Jiangsu was - 64 yuan/ton (-15) [1] Urea Production - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%). The urea production is running at a high level, and in the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose [1][2] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 29, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%) [1] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, and the export of urea is ongoing with an accelerating rhythm, and the port inventory is being depleted. In August, 800,000 tons were exported, and the export volume in September is still expected. As of September 29, 2025, the export profit was 1,070 yuan/ton (-88) [1][2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (-3.36%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+3.80%); the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53). The industrial demand for compound fertilizers has low enthusiasm for purchasing and only purchases at low prices, while melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900), and the inventory of port samples was 496,300 tons (-19,700). The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the influence of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have cut prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and transactions have improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although some companies are expected to conduct maintenance and the output may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 27, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,737 yuan/ton (+0). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0), in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (+0), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%). Some companies such as Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to conduct maintenance, and the output may decline slightly. But with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of urea was 170 yuan/ton (+0). As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,292 yuan/ton (+5). India's NFL issued a urea import tender, and the tender will close on September 2. This tender requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84% (-2.64%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60% (-3.22%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (+0.00) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 501,000 tons (+37,000 tons) [1]