【行情资讯】 张正华 美国能源部因圣诞节假期推迟数据公布。INE 主力原油期货收涨 0.10 元/桶，涨幅 0.02%，报 442.70 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫燃料油收涨 15.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.61%，报 2489.00 元 /吨；低硫燃料油收涨 10.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.33%，报 3016.00 元/吨。 【策略观点】 能源化工日报 2025-12-26 原油 2025/12/26 原油 能源化工组 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 2025/12/26 甲醇 【行情资讯】 区域现货涨跌：江苏变动 35 元/吨，鲁南变动 2.5 元/吨，河南变动-10 元/吨，河北变动 0 元/ 吨，内蒙变动-40 元/吨。 主力期货涨跌：主力合约变动-10 元/吨，报 2162 元/吨，MTO 利润报 23 元。 【策略观点】 利多兑现后盘面再度 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期偏弱，中期震荡 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251204-1210)，中国尿素生产企业产量：138.54万吨，较上期涨0.03万吨，环比涨0.02%。周期内新增2家企业装置停车，5家停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期的装置变化，本周产量小幅波动。下周，中国尿素周产量预计139万吨附近，较本期小幅波动。下个周期预计2家企业装置计划停车，1家停车企业装置可能恢复生 | | | | 产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量变动的幅度有限。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，11月为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易商及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment for urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics. The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. A further price drop may reduce upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward momentum for urea due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Potential future drivers include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota allocations [1]. - The recommended trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1625 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12%; UR09 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices mostly decreased. For example, Shandong dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1590 yuan/ton (-0.63%), Hebei dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1610 yuan/ton (-0.62%), and Jiangsu dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1580 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained stable [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was -113 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged at -78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1627 yuan/ton, the highest was 1637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1623 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1625 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1629 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 264103 hands [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The strategy is to continue holding the previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current valuation of urea is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. There is insufficient upward drive in the short term, and the main factors to be concerned about are the renovation of old chemical devices on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: The closing price on October 30 was 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.03% from October 29 [1]. - UR05: The closing price on October 30 was 1705 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.70% from October 29 [1]. - UR09: The closing price on October 30 was 1735 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.69% from October 29 [1]. Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: The price on October 30 was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Henan: The price on October 30 was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Hebei: The price on October 30 was 1620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61% from October 29 [1]. - Northeast: The price on October 30 was 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 1590 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR: The value on October 30 was - 105 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from October 29 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: The value on October 30 was - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from October 29 [1]. Upstream Cost - Anthracite price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 1030 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Anthracite price in Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Downstream Price - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 5084 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1618 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1627 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1632 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 270109 hands [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply-demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived yet. The current low valuation reflects the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a five-year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self-clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Future potential driving factors include the expectation of old equipment renovation in the chemical industry on the supply side and the possibility of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 in Shanxi decreased from 1640.00 yuan/ton to 1635.00 yuan/ton (-0.30%), UR05 decreased from 1713.00 yuan/ton to 1708.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%), and UR09 decreased from 1745.00 yuan/ton to 1736.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Northeast China, it increased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton (0.63%); in Jiangsu, it decreased from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton (-0.62%); prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from -103.00 yuan/ton to -98.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1] 4. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900.00 yuan/ton and 2500.00 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong remained unchanged at 5084.00 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu, it increased from 5100.00 yuan/ton to 5150.00 yuan/ton (0.98%) [1] 5. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1636 yuan/ton, the highest was 1645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273001 lots [1] 6. Trading Strategy - Hold the previously sold out-of-the-money put options (Viewpoint Score: 0) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term stabilization of agricultural demand is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand for urea. Urea price rebounds are blocked, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down on the day. The domestic spot market was mainly stable, with factories mostly fulfilling previous orders, and demand was slightly weaker than in previous days. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan, and large orders from individual manufacturers were still negotiable [1][4] - The daily production of urea has rebounded slightly recently, but there are still factories under inspection and shutdown, so the output fluctuation is small. Due to the increasing losses of gas - fired units, Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down. With the approaching of winter gas and production restrictions, the daily production of gas - fired units is expected to decline next month. The profit of coal - water slurry process has continuously declined, and there is cost support below the urea futures price [1] - As time progresses, after the agricultural demand, the finished product inventory of factories is gradually being depleted, but it is still slightly higher than the previous period last year. Northeast compound fertilizer is expected to gradually start production in late November. As the autumn fertilizer production is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start. The inventory accumulation rate in factories has decreased, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory is expected to climb moderately [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1636 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, closing down on the day, and finally closed at 1635 yuan/ton, forming a negative line, with a change rate of - 0.37% and a position of 273001 lots (- 8953 lots) [2] - On October 28, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2970, a decrease of 2318 from the previous trading day. Among the top 20 major positions in the main contract, long positions decreased by 5539 lots and short positions decreased by 6215 lots. Rongda Futures had a net long position of + 695 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of - 649 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of + 2287 lots, and CICC Wealth had a net short position of - 1014 lots [2] Spot - The domestic spot market was mainly stable, with factories mostly fulfilling previous orders, and demand was slightly weaker than in previous days. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan, and large orders from individual manufacturers were still negotiable [4] Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [7] 3. Fundamental Tracking - On October 28, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190400 tons, unchanged from yesterday, with an operating rate of 80.45% [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market of urea has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan fell below the previous lows, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was weak. Before the National Day, the purchasing sentiment was difficult to maintain at a high level, showing regional differentiation. The overall order intake of upstream manufacturers was okay, and the subsequent prices are expected to be mainly stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start time of demand in the Northeast. In the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. In September, the export window period is still ongoing, and the export of urea is accelerating. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On September 29, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,664 yuan/ton (-5); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); the basis in Shandong was - 64 yuan/ton (-5); the basis in Henan was - 54 yuan/ton (+5); the basis in Jiangsu was - 64 yuan/ton (-15) [1] Urea Production - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%). The urea production is running at a high level, and in the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose [1][2] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 29, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%) [1] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, and the export of urea is ongoing with an accelerating rhythm, and the port inventory is being depleted. In August, 800,000 tons were exported, and the export volume in September is still expected. As of September 29, 2025, the export profit was 1,070 yuan/ton (-88) [1][2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (-3.36%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+3.80%); the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53). The industrial demand for compound fertilizers has low enthusiasm for purchasing and only purchases at low prices, while melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900), and the inventory of port samples was 496,300 tons (-19,700). The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the influence of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have cut prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and transactions have improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although some companies are expected to conduct maintenance and the output may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 27, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,737 yuan/ton (+0). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0), in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (+0), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%). Some companies such as Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to conduct maintenance, and the output may decline slightly. But with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of urea was 170 yuan/ton (+0). As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,292 yuan/ton (+5). India's NFL issued a urea import tender, and the tender will close on September 2. This tender requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84% (-2.64%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60% (-3.22%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (+0.00) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 501,000 tons (+37,000 tons) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The continuous decline of the urea futures price is mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. The agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains at a high level, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and an upstream inventory of about 930,000 tons. - Although the current export policy is unclear, under the situation of sufficient domestic supply and low prices, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply. However, it is necessary to prevent the urea price from rising too rapidly in the short term, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. - It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the price decline. (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - On August 25, UR01 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35% from August 22; UR05 closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.39%; UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.06%. The prices in Shandong and Shanxi also showed different changes, with Shandong down 40 yuan (- 2.30%) and 20 yuan (- 1.23%) respectively [1]. Spot Price - Domestic spot prices in different regions generally declined on August 25 compared with August 22. For example, in Henan, the price dropped 40 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 2.29%); in Hebei, it dropped 40 yuan to 1730 yuan/ton (- 2.26%); in Jiangsu, it dropped 30 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 1.72%), while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 89 yuan/ton on August 25, down 47 yuan from August 22. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 44 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S), melamine in different regions also remained stable [1]. Trading Information of the Main Contract - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1754 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1735 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1746 yuan/ton. The position volume was 222,940 lots [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The urea futures market has been falling for two consecutive days due to uncertainties in exports and real domestic supply - demand pressures. With agricultural demand in the off - season and domestic supply at a high level (daily production of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons), exports can help relieve the high - supply pressure. However, short - term excessive price increases should be guarded against as it may go against the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities after price corrections. (View score: 0) [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices on August 21st: UR01 was 1764 yuan/ton (-12 yuan or -0.56% compared to August 20th), UR09 was 1737 yuan/ton (-14 yuan or -0.80%), UR05 was 1797 yuan/ton (-13 yuan or -0.72%). Spot prices in some regions also declined, e.g., in Henan and Jiangsu, it dropped by 20 yuan/ton or -1.12%. [1] Key Information on Trading - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1790 yuan/ton, the highest was 1794 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1762 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1764 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1773 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 205,717 lots. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan was stable at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong was unchanged at 5250 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it increased by 200 yuan/ton to 5300 yuan/ton (3.92% increase). [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities after price corrections. [1]