1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment for urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics. The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. A further price drop may reduce upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward momentum for urea due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Potential future drivers include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota allocations [1]. - The recommended trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1625 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12%; UR09 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices mostly decreased. For example, Shandong dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1590 yuan/ton (-0.63%), Hebei dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1610 yuan/ton (-0.62%), and Jiangsu dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1580 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained stable [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was -113 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged at -78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1627 yuan/ton, the highest was 1637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1623 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1625 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1629 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 264103 hands [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The strategy is to continue holding the previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current valuation of urea is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. There is insufficient upward drive in the short term, and the main factors to be concerned about are the renovation of old chemical devices on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: The closing price on October 30 was 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.03% from October 29 [1]. - UR05: The closing price on October 30 was 1705 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.70% from October 29 [1]. - UR09: The closing price on October 30 was 1735 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.69% from October 29 [1]. Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: The price on October 30 was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Henan: The price on October 30 was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Hebei: The price on October 30 was 1620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61% from October 29 [1]. - Northeast: The price on October 30 was 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 1590 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR: The value on October 30 was - 105 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from October 29 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: The value on October 30 was - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from October 29 [1]. Upstream Cost - Anthracite price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 1030 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Anthracite price in Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Downstream Price - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 5084 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1618 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1627 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1632 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 270109 hands [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply-demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived yet. The current low valuation reflects the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a five-year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self-clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Future potential driving factors include the expectation of old equipment renovation in the chemical industry on the supply side and the possibility of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 in Shanxi decreased from 1640.00 yuan/ton to 1635.00 yuan/ton (-0.30%), UR05 decreased from 1713.00 yuan/ton to 1708.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%), and UR09 decreased from 1745.00 yuan/ton to 1736.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Northeast China, it increased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton (0.63%); in Jiangsu, it decreased from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton (-0.62%); prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from -103.00 yuan/ton to -98.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1] 4. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900.00 yuan/ton and 2500.00 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong remained unchanged at 5084.00 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu, it increased from 5100.00 yuan/ton to 5150.00 yuan/ton (0.98%) [1] 5. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1636 yuan/ton, the highest was 1645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273001 lots [1] 6. Trading Strategy - Hold the previously sold out-of-the-money put options (Viewpoint Score: 0) [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 供需宽松难改善，反弹受阻 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 28 日 【行情分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1636 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内收跌，最 终收于 1635 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-0.37%，持仓量 273001 手（-8953 手）。 2025 年 10 月 28 日，尿素仓单数量 2970 张，环比上个交易日-2318 张。主 力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-5539 手，空头-6215 手。其中，融达 期货净多单+695 手、中泰期货净多单-649 手；中信期货净空单+2287 手，中金 财富净空单-1014 手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：今日国内现货市场稳定为主，工厂多执行前期订单，需求相对 前几日略显疲软。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1530-1590 元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market of urea has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan fell below the previous lows, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was weak. Before the National Day, the purchasing sentiment was difficult to maintain at a high level, showing regional differentiation. The overall order intake of upstream manufacturers was okay, and the subsequent prices are expected to be mainly stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start time of demand in the Northeast. In the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. In September, the export window period is still ongoing, and the export of urea is accelerating. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On September 29, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,664 yuan/ton (-5); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); the basis in Shandong was - 64 yuan/ton (-5); the basis in Henan was - 54 yuan/ton (+5); the basis in Jiangsu was - 64 yuan/ton (-15) [1] Urea Production - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%). The urea production is running at a high level, and in the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose [1][2] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 29, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%) [1] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, and the export of urea is ongoing with an accelerating rhythm, and the port inventory is being depleted. In August, 800,000 tons were exported, and the export volume in September is still expected. As of September 29, 2025, the export profit was 1,070 yuan/ton (-88) [1][2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (-3.36%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+3.80%); the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53). The industrial demand for compound fertilizers has low enthusiasm for purchasing and only purchases at low prices, while melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900), and the inventory of port samples was 496,300 tons (-19,700). The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the influence of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have cut prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and transactions have improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although some companies are expected to conduct maintenance and the output may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 27, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,737 yuan/ton (+0). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0), in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (+0), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%). Some companies such as Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to conduct maintenance, and the output may decline slightly. But with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of urea was 170 yuan/ton (+0). As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,292 yuan/ton (+5). India's NFL issued a urea import tender, and the tender will close on September 2. This tender requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84% (-2.64%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60% (-3.22%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (+0.00) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 501,000 tons (+37,000 tons) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The continuous decline of the urea futures price is mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. The agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains at a high level, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and an upstream inventory of about 930,000 tons. - Although the current export policy is unclear, under the situation of sufficient domestic supply and low prices, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply. However, it is necessary to prevent the urea price from rising too rapidly in the short term, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. - It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the price decline. (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - On August 25, UR01 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35% from August 22; UR05 closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.39%; UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.06%. The prices in Shandong and Shanxi also showed different changes, with Shandong down 40 yuan (- 2.30%) and 20 yuan (- 1.23%) respectively [1]. Spot Price - Domestic spot prices in different regions generally declined on August 25 compared with August 22. For example, in Henan, the price dropped 40 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 2.29%); in Hebei, it dropped 40 yuan to 1730 yuan/ton (- 2.26%); in Jiangsu, it dropped 30 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 1.72%), while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 89 yuan/ton on August 25, down 47 yuan from August 22. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 44 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S), melamine in different regions also remained stable [1]. Trading Information of the Main Contract - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1754 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1735 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1746 yuan/ton. The position volume was 222,940 lots [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The urea futures market has been falling for two consecutive days due to uncertainties in exports and real domestic supply - demand pressures. With agricultural demand in the off - season and domestic supply at a high level (daily production of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons), exports can help relieve the high - supply pressure. However, short - term excessive price increases should be guarded against as it may go against the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities after price corrections. (View score: 0) [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices on August 21st: UR01 was 1764 yuan/ton (-12 yuan or -0.56% compared to August 20th), UR09 was 1737 yuan/ton (-14 yuan or -0.80%), UR05 was 1797 yuan/ton (-13 yuan or -0.72%). Spot prices in some regions also declined, e.g., in Henan and Jiangsu, it dropped by 20 yuan/ton or -1.12%. [1] Key Information on Trading - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1790 yuan/ton, the highest was 1794 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1762 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1764 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1773 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 205,717 lots. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan was stable at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong was unchanged at 5250 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it increased by 200 yuan/ton to 5300 yuan/ton (3.92% increase). [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities after price corrections. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The impact of the Indian tender on market sentiment is gradually subsiding. Looking at domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level. Although the increase in enterprise inventory accumulation is not significant due to the increase in port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 780,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On August 8th, compared with August 7th, UR01, UR05, and UR09 futures prices decreased by -0.34%, -0.50%, and -0.52% respectively. Among domestic spot prices, the price in Henan decreased by -0.56%, while the price in Hebei (small - granular) increased by 0.57%. Prices in Shanxi, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan/ton [1] 3. Upstream Costs and Downstream Prices - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.45%, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 4. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1738 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1748 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1727 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1728 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 108,076 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - India's IPL urea import tender price has jumped, exceeding market expectations, boosting the export demand of the domestic market. The urea resources have been continuously gathered at ports in the past month, and the current port inventory exceeds 500,000 tons. However, in terms of domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with the daily output close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory accumulation of enterprises is not significant, mainly affected by the increase in port - gathering. The upstream enterprise inventory is still about 750,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If the export demand cannot be supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure. (View score: 0) [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On August 6, compared with August 5, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.84%), in Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.61%); UR05 decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.44%); UR09 decreased by 22 yuan/ton (-1.24%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Henan (small - particle), it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%); in Hebei, it increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.72%); in Northeast China, it remained unchanged; in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Yunnan and Shanxi remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The melamine price in Shandong increased by 60 yuan/ton (1.20%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 18 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread**: The spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1]