Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Core View - Due to the significant escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East are shut down temporarily, leading to a sharp increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, and currently, the pressure on upstream factories is not great. Exports are urgently stopped, and reserve supplies are expected to be put on the market. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate in the range of 1810 - 1940 [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped by 32 yuan to 1841 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1860 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 7002 lots to 268,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 6420 lots to 311,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 808,900 tons, 148,000 tons less than the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 15.5%. The sample inventory at urea ports is 167,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 49.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%, and the operating rate of melamine is 53.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% [1] - India's RCF urea import tender: The latest shipment date is March 31. A total of 20 suppliers participated, with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 US dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 US dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%; the average import price was 2963.69 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%; the average export price was 398.27 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - Oil prices: The Middle East situation has led to significant production cuts in multiple oil - producing countries, and there are reports that the US may send additional ground troops, increasing supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.18 US dollars/barrel to 98.32 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.27%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.54 US dollars/barrel to 112.19 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 3.26%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 27 to 776.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 26.4 to 802.8 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The sharp escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation causes high - level and volatile international crude oil prices. Temporary shutdowns of some urea production facilities in the Middle East lead to a sharp increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about high - priced purchases, and upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports are halted, and reserve supplies are expected to enter the market. Urea prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 1810 - 1940 [1] Trading Strategy - Suggested to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the significant escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. Some urea production plants in the Middle East have temporarily shut down, causing overseas urea prices to surge. Mid - and downstream buyers are cautious about high - price purchases, while upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports have been urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market. It is predicted that urea prices will oscillate within the range of 1810 - 1940 [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 32 yuan to 1841 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central - China mainstream area decreased by 10 yuan to 1860 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 7002 lots to 268,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 6420 lots to 311,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 808,900 tons, 148,000 tons less than the previous period, a 15.5% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 167,000 tons, a 22,000 - ton month - on - month decrease [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 49.9%, a 4.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 53.3%, a 3.9% month - on - month increase [1] - **India's Tender**: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - **Import and Export in December 2025**: Urea imports in December 2025 were 35.39 tons, an 82.11% month - on - month decrease; the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a 52.11% month - on - month decrease. Urea exports in December 2025 were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a 56.64% month - on - month decrease [1] - **Oil Price**: The Middle East situation has led to significant production cuts in multiple oil - producing countries, and there are reports that the US may send ground troops, increasing supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.18 dollars/barrel to 98.32 dollars/barrel, a 2.27% month - on - month increase; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.54 dollars/barrel to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a 3.26% month - on - month increase. The China INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 27 to 776.4 yuan/barrel and rose 26.4 to 802.8 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The sharp escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation causes international crude oil to fluctuate sharply at a high level. Temporary shutdowns of some urea production plants in the Middle East lead to a sharp rise in overseas urea prices. Mid - and downstream buyers are cautious about high - price purchases, while upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports have been urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. The price of the Indian urea import tender is announced, and the overseas urea price continues to rise. After the Spring Festival, upstream factories have accumulated a large amount of inventory, and are affected by the news that the national reserve will be released from late February to early March. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the progress of agricultural demand [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 fell by 10 yuan to 1,836 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1,830 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 858 lots to 264,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,334 lots to 283,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 218,000 tons, the same as the previous working day and an increase of 21,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate yesterday was 92.57%, a 5.22% increase compared with 87.35% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.176 million tons, an increase of 341,300 tons compared with the previous period (February 11), a 40.89% month-on-month increase. The sample inventory at urea ports is 174,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 33.4%, a month-on-month increase of 8.9%, and the operating rate of melamine is 60.7%, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] - Tender: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR 512 US dollars/ton, and the lowest offer on the west coast is CFR 508 US dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and Export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 82.11%; the average import price was 2,963.69 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 53.75%; the average export price was 398.27 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 56.64% [1] - Oil Price: Positive progress has been made in the new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, and international oil prices have fallen, but there are still differences between the two sides, and the decline in oil prices has finally narrowed. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract fell 0.21 US dollars/barrel to 65.21 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 0.32%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract fell 0.10 US dollars/barrel to 70.75 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14%. China's INE crude oil futures 2604 contract fell 3.4 to 486.2 yuan/barrel, and rose 3.6 to 489.8 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unstable, and the international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. The price of the Indian urea import tender is announced, and the overseas urea price continues to rise. After the Spring Festival, upstream factories have accumulated a large amount of inventory, and are affected by the news that the national reserve will be released from late February to early March. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the progress of agricultural demand [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing significant price fluctuations due to high supply levels and seasonal demand changes, with prices expected to stabilize within the range of 1600 to 1700 yuan/ton in the short term [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Urea production remains high, with daily output consistently above 190,000 tons, leading to increased inventory levels, which are historically high, reaching up to 1.7 million tons [2] - The agricultural demand for fertilizers is weakening as the season transitions, and industrial demand is recovering slowly, contributing to a supply surplus [1][2] - The upcoming maintenance of gas-based urea production facilities is expected to reduce daily output by over 20,000 tons, potentially lowering total production to around 180,000 tons [2] Group 2: Seasonal and Reserve Demand - Despite the weakening of immediate demand, reserve demand is anticipated to increase, with over 4 million tons expected to be procured by storage companies before March 2026 [3] - Compound fertilizer companies are beginning to stockpile raw materials for winter production, which will gradually increase their operational rates and support market prices [3] - Seasonal reserve demand in the Northeast market is also expected to provide additional support to the urea market [3] Group 3: Policy and Market Conditions - The introduction of export quotas for urea in 2025, with nearly 5 million tons allocated from July to November, indicates a government strategy to manage market prices without seasonal differentiation [4] - The coal market has strengthened post-holiday, with prices rising from 700 yuan/ton to 850 yuan/ton, which will increase production costs for urea [4] - While supply remains a primary pressure on the urea market, the anticipated maintenance of production facilities and the gradual release of reserve demand may provide marginal support, maintaining a range-bound market in the short to medium term [4]