出口消息提振，盘面触底反弹 尿素月报 2025/11/07 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 尿素产业链月度价格数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 面 | | | 盘 | | | | | | 合 约 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | 月 差 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | | 09合约 | 1736 | 1742 | - 6 | 9-1价差 | 111 | 7 2 | 3 9 | | 01合约 | 1625 | 1670 | -45 | 1-5价差 | -78 | -47 | -31 | | 05合约 | 1703 | 1717 | -14 | 5-9价差 | -33 | -25 | - 8 | | 国内现货市场 | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, with both industrial and agricultural demand being weak. The international urea price is strong, but it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the UR contract will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level. Enterprise inventories are accumulating, and inventories have increased in many provinces such as Gansu and Hebei. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea supply-demand imbalance is still significant. The spot price of the delivery product is 1540 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.9%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.859 million tons (+174,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. The international urea price is strong, but it has limited support for the domestic price. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong [5]. - **Negative Factors**: High daily production and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1540 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1550 (unchanged), and the Henan spot price is 1540 (unchanged). The FOB China price is 2749 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 01 contract is 1600 (+3), the price of the UR05 contract is 1669 (-2), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1702 (-5). The basis of the UR2601 contract is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.9% [4][6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.859 million tons (+174,000 tons), including 1.444 million tons of UR manufacturer inventory and 415,000 tons of UR port inventory [4][6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡偏弱。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体 高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素 整体供过于求仍明显，理论出口利润继续创新高，但受政策等原因影响出口数量回落。交割品现 货1700（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差42，升贴水比例2.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存142.1万吨（+5.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国 ...