尿素市场2026年年报 尿素：冬去春犹近 波平势渐升 ——2025年尿素市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 夏聪聪 Z0012870 摘要： 2025 年，尿素期货呈现低位运行态势，重心先扬后抑，基本在 1600-1950 内波动， 价格波动区间明显收窄。供需持续宽松，尿素行情跟随季节性特点波动。 上游原料煤炭价格降至低位，企业生产利润表现尚可，尿素市场产能继续投放， 2025 年新投产产能较多，国内供应规模扩大。加之尿素产能利用率长期处于高位， 日产量不断提升，一度超过 20 万吨，市场货源充沛。但下游需求跟进略显一般，尤 其是工业需求受到宏观环境的影响普遍偏弱，且多数与房地产相关，回暖略显乏力。 农业需求存在季节性特点，在天气因素扰动下，整体释放情况不及预期。尿素出口 有所好转，2025 年下半年开始明显放量，对国内市场存在一定支撑。为了保障化肥 供应安全，尿素出口仍处于监管阶段。2026 年，尿素市场将延续高开工、高供应态 势，货源供应较为充裕。国内种植面积稳定增加，农业需求保持增长态势，但工业 需求增量或有限。国内供需压力较大，且国内外价差扩大，尿素出口或逐步改善。 2025 ...

行业政策偏利好 转自：期货日报 近期，受第四批出口配额发布影响，尿素价格大幅反弹，主力合约最高涨至1679元／吨。后期随着利多 情绪逐步消化，价格再度回落。综合来看，一方面，供应持续高位运行，全国尿素日产量维持在19万吨 以上，库存压力凸显；另一方面，农业用肥进入淡季，工业需求恢复缓慢，且复合肥和秋季肥生产已结 束，市场逐步转为供大于求格局。目前尿素呈现明显的震荡特征，期价或在1600~1700元／吨区间内反 复波动。不过，后期气头企业检修可能带来供应减量，淡储需求也将逐步启动，加之原料端表现强势， 上述因素将对行情形成一定支撑。 储备性需求增加 2025年尿素产能仍处于集中投放阶段，截至11月已投产尿素产能达630万吨。当前尿素日产量长期维持 在19万吨以上，最高接近21万吨。最新数据显示，当前尿素日产量为19.8万吨。在高日产量背景下，行 业库存持续处于历史高位。据卓创资讯统计，2025年尿素企业库存多数时间维持在100万吨以上，最高 达到170万吨，处于历年高位水平。 不过，11月中旬之后，国内气头尿素装置将步入检修季。加之当前行业处于亏损状态，装置检修概率或 高于往年。据统计，全国气头尿素日产量约4. ...

出口消息提振，盘面触底反弹 尿素月报 2025/11/07 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 尿素产业链月度价格数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 面 | | | 盘 | | | | | | 合 约 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | 月 差 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | | 09合约 | 1736 | 1742 | - 6 | 9-1价差 | 111 | 7 2 | 3 9 | | 01合约 | 1625 | 1670 | -45 | 1-5价差 | -78 | -47 | -31 | | 05合约 | 1703 | 1717 | -14 | 5-9价差 | -33 | -25 | - 8 | | 国内现货市场 | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, with both industrial and agricultural demand being weak. The international urea price is strong, but it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the UR contract will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level. Enterprise inventories are accumulating, and inventories have increased in many provinces such as Gansu and Hebei. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea supply-demand imbalance is still significant. The spot price of the delivery product is 1540 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.9%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.859 million tons (+174,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. The international urea price is strong, but it has limited support for the domestic price. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong [5]. - **Negative Factors**: High daily production and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1540 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1550 (unchanged), and the Henan spot price is 1540 (unchanged). The FOB China price is 2749 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 01 contract is 1600 (+3), the price of the UR05 contract is 1669 (-2), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1702 (-5). The basis of the UR2601 contract is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.9% [4][6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.859 million tons (+174,000 tons), including 1.444 million tons of UR manufacturer inventory and 415,000 tons of UR port inventory [4][6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡偏弱。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体 高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素 整体供过于求仍明显，理论出口利润继续创新高，但受政策等原因影响出口数量回落。交割品现 货1700（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差42，升贴水比例2.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存142.1万吨（+5.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国 ...