1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asphalt valuation is expected to be neutral to weak due to mediocre fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market caused by tariff policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [4][5] - In terms of strategies, consider partial profit - taking for reverse spreads in the inter - period and for short - cracking in the inter - variety [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 28.8%, a 4.0% week - on - week decrease. The average weekly domestic asphalt processing profit was - 524 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. Next week, there is an expected slight increase in supply in some areas [4] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers purchase low - price asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north and south markets has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure. In Shandong, continuous rainfall has hindered terminal demand, while in East China, some terminal projects are under concentrated construction, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt has increased by 0.2% to 15.8% [4] - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil. The average weekly domestic asphalt price was 3784 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The price fluctuation range was 3764 - 3794 yuan/ton, and the range expanded. Prices rose in 2 regions, fell in 4 regions, and remained stable in 1 region [5] 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by various factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different advantages, such as no need for crude oil quotas and exemption from consumption tax [8] - **Futures**: Data on futures prices, trading volume, and open interest are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC [12] - **Spot**: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, along with the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [13] - **Spread**: The basis and month - to - month spreads in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta are presented [17][20] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [23] - **Downstream Shipment**: From July 16 - 22, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.5 tons, a 0.2% week - on - week increase. The capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 14.5%, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease and a 2.5% year - on - year increase [28] 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports (from countries like South Korea and Singapore). Key indicators include inventory, production profit, and maintenance plans [29] - **Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From July 18 - 24, 2025, the domestic weekly asphalt output was 51.7 tons, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 12.1% year - on - year increase. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 0.1% [32] - **开工率 (Operating Rate)**: Data on the weekly operating rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [34][36][38] - **Inventory**: Data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - International crude oil prices are affected by factors such as the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ production increases, and Trump's tariff policies, showing a weak performance on the day but still supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the current low inventory provides strong support. The effectiveness of PX in the future depends on unexpected factors. PTA is facing new device commissions in the third quarter, with a time mismatch with PX. PTA demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced production by polyester factories, and the inventory relative value is at a five - year high, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak situation. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA is still supported without significant polyester production cuts, but may weaken if production cuts expand. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain is tilting towards raw materials. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 8, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was $68.33 per barrel, up 0.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $70.15 per barrel, up 0.82%. On July 7, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577 per ton, down 0.30%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $715.5 per ton, down 0.14%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $841.67 per ton, up 0.24% [1] - **PTA**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,710 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; the settlement price was 4,786 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,798 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,805 yuan per ton, up 0.31%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $635 per ton on July 7, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 76 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis was 95 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan [1] - **PX**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the settlement price was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.33%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,725 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $848 per ton, up 0.71%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $817 per ton on July 7, up 0.25%. The PXN spread was $264.67 per ton on July 7, up 1.44%; the PX - MX spread was $126.17 per ton on July 7, up 2.44%. The basis was 29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - **PR**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,866 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 5,922 yuan per ton, down 0.64%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 79 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan; in the South China market, it was 134 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 8, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of polyester fibers such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D remained unchanged. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,700 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [2] Operating Conditions - On July 8, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, 87.30%, 71.93%, and 61.22% respectively. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber decreased by 7 and 6 percentage points respectively, while that of polyester chips increased by 4 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the daily trading volume being 850,100 lots. PX prices are in a consolidation phase, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,696 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), and the daily trading volume being 180,100 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,866 yuan per ton (down 0.03%), and the daily trading volume being 32,800 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the stock index will mainly show a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, with a mid - term upward trend. Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the market turnover increased. The market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of geopolitical risks, but short - term policy signals are lacking, and external risks may cause some disturbances [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference view is range - bound oscillation, and the core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the total market turnover of the stock market was 1447.9 billion yuan, an increase of 301.1 billion yuan compared with the previous day [4]. - **Positive Factors**: Iran's acceptance of the cease - fire plan has eased geopolitical risks, and the market's risk preference has recovered. The main support for the market comes from the expected positive policies in the future due to weak credit and inflation data [4]. - **Negative Factors**: There is no incremental policy signal in the short - term, and it is necessary to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July. The implementation of the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel is still uncertain, and external risks may affect the market's risk preference [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: The Middle - East geopolitical situation is still evolving, and the strong trend of raw materials supports the upward movement of PTA prices. However, the supply - demand side of PTA itself lacks support. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis has risen and then fallen. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Israel - Iran situation on oil prices and the fluctuation of polyester load [5]. - **MEG**: If the Strait of Hormuz maintains normal passage, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will turn balanced in July, and the spot liquidity is gradually being released. The fundamental support for ethylene glycol will gradually weaken under the expectation of domestic production recovery and weak demand. In the short term, the market price is still mainly affected by external and cost factors. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the Israel - Iran situation and the release of ethane vessels [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, trading was mainly among traders, and some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The June goods were traded at 09 + 260 - 290, with the price negotiation range around 5220 - 5330. The goods in early July were traded at 09 + 260 - 270. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 269 [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5175, the basis of the 09 contract is 302, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.15 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is increasing, showing a bullish signal [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined slightly at a high level, and the market negotiation was average. At night, ethylene glycol remained firm at a high level, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. The spot negotiation next week was at a premium of 82 - 83 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. The intraday market declined slightly, and the trading was light. The low - level spot was traded at around 4560 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a high level. The mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was around 534 - 538 US dollars/ton, and the near - ocean shipments in July were traded at 538 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 1000 tons [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4547, the basis of the 09 contract is 79, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 53.10 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 tons, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary**: - **Positive Factors**: The Middle - East geopolitical situation is still evolving, and the strong trend of raw materials supports the upward movement of PTA prices [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The previously shut - down PTA plants are gradually restarting, and new plants are being put into production, leading to a weakening supply - demand pattern. From the demand side, the end of the rush - to - export period and the off - season of domestic demand mean a definite weakening trend in terminal demand [9]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and after the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA production capacity, production, imports, exports, and inventory [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, consumption, and port inventory [12].

Report Core View - On June 19 (Thursday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed due to the Juneteenth holiday. The Brent August crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2.15 per barrel to $78.85 per barrel, a gain of 2.80% [2] - A source said that US President Trump told his senior aides that he had approved an attack plan on Iran but would not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. The White House said Trump would decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that for the week ending June 13, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels, the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2024, compared with a market expectation of a 1.8 million - barrel decrease. US crude oil inventories were 420.9 million barrels, the lowest level since January [4] - In the short - term, the market will still trade on Middle East geopolitical tensions, and oil prices will hover at high levels. Fundamentally, the peak summer driving season is approaching, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries have recovered from maintenance, the China - US economic and trade negotiations in London have made positive progress, the macro - environment is currently loose, OPEC+ has not effectively increased production, and US shale oil production has declined for seven consecutive weeks. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply trend and demand being restricted by the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices will decline from high levels [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to Israel's attack on Iran, leading to a surge in various futures contracts, particularly SC crude oil, which hit the limit up [1] Group 2 - Institutional analysis indicates that the short-term outlook for oil prices is expected to be strong amid the heightened geopolitical situation [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rising tensions in the Middle East and its impact on gold prices, indicating a trend of upward volatility in the gold market [1] - It raises the question of whether the recent pullback in gold prices represents a buying opportunity or a risk for investors [1] - The analysis suggests that the current market conditions warrant close monitoring, particularly during the European trading session where significant price movements occurred [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices surged due to improved risk appetite from US-China trade talks and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - The US inflation rate remained relatively stable, with May CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, which helped stabilize market sentiment and supported oil prices [3] - A decrease in US crude oil inventories, reported at 432.415 million barrels, down by 3.64 million barrels, contributed positively to the oil market as summer demand approaches [4] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the stalled US-Iran negotiations and potential military conflicts, continues to support the oil market [2] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, which are expected to provide a favorable outlook for oil prices [1][4] - Despite short-term potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions, long-term concerns about economic and energy demand may pressure oil prices [6]