Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of urea continues to increase, and the domestic supply pressure cannot be resolved by domestic demand alone, leading to a weak and volatile spot market [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: the expected renovation of old - fashioned production facilities (old - fashioned facilities over 20 years old account for about 20% of the total, and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and the expected improvement in exports (especially in September - October under the easing of Sino - Indian relations). The space for further decline in urea prices is relatively limited [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.30%), in Shanxi it remained unchanged, UR05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and UR09 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Henan, Hebei, and Northeast China, domestic small - particle urea spot prices remained unchanged. In Jiangsu, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.23%) [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The anthracite price in Shanxi remained unchanged. The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The melamine price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Shandong it increased by 83 yuan/ton (1.65%) [1]. 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1676 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1683 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1673 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250911:现货走低,关注后市逢低做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 9月10日 9月9日 | | | | | 要化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1669.00 1670.00 1560.00 | 1683.00 1670.00 1560.00 | -14.00 0.00 0.00 | -0.83% 0.00% 0.00% | | | 民素期货价格 | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1719.00 | 1733.00 | -14.00 | -0.81% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1613.00 | 1624.00 | -11.00 | -0.68% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1670.00 | 1680.00 | -10.00 | -0.60% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | ...