Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sentiment for urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics. The urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the strong supply and weak demand situation. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after reaching a near - five - year low. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline further. In the short term, there is insufficient upward momentum due to high supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious. Future potential drivers include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1644 yuan/ton on November 6, up 11 yuan or 0.67% from November 5 - UR05 closed at 1727 yuan/ton on November 6, up 12 yuan or 0.70% from November 5 - UR09 closed at 1750 yuan/ton on November 6, up 11 yuan or 0.63% from November 5 [1] Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 12 yuan to - 147 yuan/ton - The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 1 yuan to - 83 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, as well as the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu, remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1630 yuan/ton, the highest was 1653 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1628 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1644 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1640 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 275142 hands [1] Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profit on the sold put options of the 12 - contract [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment for urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics. The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. A further price drop may reduce upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward momentum for urea due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Potential future drivers include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota allocations [1]. - The recommended trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1625 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12%; UR09 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices mostly decreased. For example, Shandong dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1590 yuan/ton (-0.63%), Hebei dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1610 yuan/ton (-0.62%), and Jiangsu dropped 10 yuan/ton to 1580 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained stable [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was -113 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged at -78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1627 yuan/ton, the highest was 1637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1623 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1625 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1629 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 264103 hands [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The strategy is to continue holding the previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current valuation of urea is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. There is insufficient upward drive in the short term, and the main factors to be concerned about are the renovation of old chemical devices on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: The closing price on October 30 was 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.03% from October 29 [1]. - UR05: The closing price on October 30 was 1705 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.70% from October 29 [1]. - UR09: The closing price on October 30 was 1735 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.69% from October 29 [1]. Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: The price on October 30 was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Henan: The price on October 30 was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Hebei: The price on October 30 was 1620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61% from October 29 [1]. - Northeast: The price on October 30 was 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 1590 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR: The value on October 30 was - 105 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from October 29 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: The value on October 30 was - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from October 29 [1]. Upstream Cost - Anthracite price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 1030 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Anthracite price in Shanxi: The price on October 30 was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Downstream Price - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: The price on October 30 was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: The price on October 30 was 5084 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: The price on October 30 was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 29 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1618 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1627 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1632 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 270109 hands [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply-demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived yet. The current low valuation reflects the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a five-year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self-clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Future potential driving factors include the expectation of old equipment renovation in the chemical industry on the supply side and the possibility of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 in Shanxi decreased from 1640.00 yuan/ton to 1635.00 yuan/ton (-0.30%), UR05 decreased from 1713.00 yuan/ton to 1708.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%), and UR09 decreased from 1745.00 yuan/ton to 1736.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Northeast China, it increased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton (0.63%); in Jiangsu, it decreased from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton (-0.62%); prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from -103.00 yuan/ton to -98.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1] 4. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900.00 yuan/ton and 2500.00 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong remained unchanged at 5084.00 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu, it increased from 5100.00 yuan/ton to 5150.00 yuan/ton (0.98%) [1] 5. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1636 yuan/ton, the highest was 1645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273001 lots [1] 6. Trading Strategy - Hold the previously sold out-of-the-money put options (Viewpoint Score: 0) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. There is insufficient short - term upward drive, and it is necessary to focus on the old device renovation of the chemical industry on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 urea futures price in Shanxi decreased from 1640.00 yuan/ton on October 27th to 1635.00 yuan/ton on October 28th, a decrease of 0.30%. UR05 decreased from 1713.00 yuan/ton to 1708.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29%. UR09 decreased from 1745.00 yuan/ton to 1736.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei remained unchanged. The price in Northeast China increased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. The price in Jiangsu decreased from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The prices of compound fertilizer in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased from 5100.00 yuan/ton to 5150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from - 103.00 yuan/ton to - 98.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.00 yuan/ton. The spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 73.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1636 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1645 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273001 lots [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to continue holding the previously sold out - of - the - money put options (view score: 0) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - Urea is currently undervalued, but the upward driving force is temporarily limited. The current strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has stabilized after falling to a near - five - year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Short - term upward driving force is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream purchases are cautious. Future possible driving forces include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On October 22, UR01 closed at 1621 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1691 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.54%; UR09 closed at 1725 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35%. Domestic spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, except for Jiangsu, where it decreased by 10 yuan or 0.65% [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 9 yuan to - 151 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 70 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream prices such as compound fertilizers (45%S), melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1621 yuan/ton, with a high of 1625 yuan/ton, a low of 1610 yuan/ton, a close of 1621 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1617 yuan/ton, and a position of 312,046 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental pressure on urea is relatively high, and its valuation is also high. The trend remains weak, but due to many important macro - events recently, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium - term, there is a trend of inventory accumulation [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices both domestically and internationally over the years, including basis trends of different manufacturers and monthly spreads such as 5 - 9, 1 - 5, etc., as well as domestic and international spot price trends of different regions and types of urea [5][9][15][20] 2. Domestic Supply 2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity in 2025 continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 million tons, with many enterprises having new capacity or device resumption [24] 2.2 Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including different types such as normal maintenance, policy - based maintenance, fault - based maintenance, and loss (cost) - based maintenance. The loss of production volume varies among different enterprises [27] 2.3 Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report also shows the historical trends of daily output, capacity utilization rate, and production volume of coal - based and gas - based urea in China [28][29] 2.4 Cost - The raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi and historical cost trends of different production processes of urea [31] 2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, and the report shows the profit trends of different production processes of urea over the years [36] 2.6 Net Import (Export) - After the adjustment of export policies, the subsequent export volume may increase. The report provides monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 to 2025 [42] 3. Domestic Demand 3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics, with strong demand in some months. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. The report also shows the cost, inventory, and profit trends of compound fertilizers [48][51][55] 3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, cost, inventory, and profit trends of compound fertilizers [57] - **Melamine**: It shows the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate trends of melamine [58][59][60] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for wood - based panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but wood - based panel exports are resilient. The report provides relevant export and real - estate construction and completion data [61][62] 4. Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1615400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. As of October 16, 2025 (week 42), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 446000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.47% [63][66] 5. International Urea - The report shows the historical price trends of large - granular urea FOB in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and large - granular urea CFR in Brazil [69][70][71][72][73]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of urea continues to increase, and the domestic supply pressure cannot be resolved by domestic demand alone, leading to a weak and volatile spot market [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: the expected renovation of old - fashioned production facilities (old - fashioned facilities over 20 years old account for about 20% of the total, and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and the expected improvement in exports (especially in September - October under the easing of Sino - Indian relations). The space for further decline in urea prices is relatively limited [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.30%), in Shanxi it remained unchanged, UR05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and UR09 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Henan, Hebei, and Northeast China, domestic small - particle urea spot prices remained unchanged. In Jiangsu, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.23%) [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The anthracite price in Shanxi remained unchanged. The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The melamine price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Shandong it increased by 83 yuan/ton (1.65%) [1]. 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1676 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1683 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1673 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250911:现货走低,关注后市逢低做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 9月10日 9月9日 | | | | | 要化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1669.00 1670.00 1560.00 | 1683.00 1670.00 1560.00 | -14.00 0.00 0.00 | -0.83% 0.00% 0.00% | | | 民素期货价格 | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1719.00 | 1733.00 | -14.00 | -0.81% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1613.00 | 1624.00 | -11.00 | -0.68% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1670.00 | 1680.00 | -10.00 | -0.60% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | ...