Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of urea continues to increase, and the domestic supply pressure cannot be resolved by domestic demand alone, leading to a weak and volatile spot market [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: the expected renovation of old - fashioned production facilities (old - fashioned facilities over 20 years old account for about 20% of the total, and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and the expected improvement in exports (especially in September - October under the easing of Sino - Indian relations). The space for further decline in urea prices is relatively limited [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.30%), in Shanxi it remained unchanged, UR05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and UR09 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Henan, Hebei, and Northeast China, domestic small - particle urea spot prices remained unchanged. In Jiangsu, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.23%) [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The anthracite price in Shanxi remained unchanged. The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The melamine price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Shandong it increased by 83 yuan/ton (1.65%) [1]. 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1676 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1683 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1673 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 尿素周报2025/7/18 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 关注出口变化 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量有所下滑；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥秋季预收开 | | | 偏多 | 始，开工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，关注出口政策变化。 | | 月差 | 中性 偏多 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言出口指导价提高，新一轮出口额度释放，但目前并不大幅放开出口的确定消息。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业收单平稳，成交不温不火。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移，出口需求支撑当前尿素价格。 | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步提升； ...