尿素日报 | 2026-03-03 现货价格跟随3月指导价上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-03-02，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（-30）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+30）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+30）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： 73元/吨（+60）；河南基差：43元/吨（+60）；江苏基差：73元/吨（+60）；尿素生产利润325元/吨（+30），出口利 润1239元/吨（+94）。 供应端：截至2026-03-02，企业产能利用率93.16%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.60 万吨（+14.56），港口样 本库存量为17.40 万吨（+0.80）。 需求端：截至2026-03-02，复合肥产能利用率33.41%（+8.91%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.91%（-8.26%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.12日（-2.29）。 节后现货成交较好，主产销区现货报价2月底达到2月尿素指导价，3月指导价较2月上调30元/吨，现货3月报价跟涨 30元/吨。供应端部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。部分淡 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is affected by news, with the futures market showing a strong trend. The current urea guidance price remains unchanged, and manufacturers have no pressure in pre - holiday orders. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival [2] - In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers' pre - holiday orders are mostly completed. Some off - season reserve supplies will be released in February. Near the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer production rate decreased, while the melamine production rate increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea factories decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [2] - Due to the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention of 150,000 tons. The follow - up needs to focus on export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,843 yuan/ton (+46). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,810 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,800 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,810 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (-36), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-46) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of February 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 90.59% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 235 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,049 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report does not provide specific information on foreign market prices and export profit other than the export profit data mentioned above [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19% (-5.60%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77% (+2.82%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 when the spread is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Volatile [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when it's at a low level [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Some manufacturers' price cuts have improved order collection, and agricultural demand is following up. The price is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival. On the supply side, some gas - based and technical - renovation enterprises resumed production in January, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers are conducting Spring Festival order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer operation rate increased slightly this week, at a relatively high level. The downstream fertilizer demand is approaching, and the sales are improving. There is an expected decline in operation rate before the Spring Festival. The melamine operation rate decreased due to more temporary shutdowns this week, with only rigid demand. The overall inventory in urea factories decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the Iranian situation, international urea prices rose. India is expected to tender again. There is no new information about the domestic export quota, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 5, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1778 yuan/ton (- 9); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1760 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle urea price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (+ 10); the small - particle urea price in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (+ 10); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+ 19); the basis in Henan was - 18 yuan/ton (+ 9); the basis in Jiangsu was 22 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 5, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.14% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - On February 5, 2026, the urea production profit was 215 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - On February 5, 2026, the export profit was 943 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of February 5, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 41.79% (+ 0.45%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.95% (- 8.50%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 8.82 days (+ 2.23) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1]

下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-02，尿素主力收盘1787元/吨（-3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1770元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-17 元/吨（-17）；河南基差：-17元/吨（+3）；江苏基差：13元/吨（+3）；尿素生产利润205元/吨（-20），出口利润936 元/吨（+8）。 供应端：截至2026-02-02，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.49 万吨（-0.11），港口样本 库存量为14.40 万吨（+1.00）。 需求端：截至2026-02-02，复合肥产能利用率41.34%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为66.45%（+2.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.59日（+0.71）。 尿素日报 | 2026-02-03 尿素价格窄幅震荡，农业需求跟进，春节收单压力较小，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加 技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家陆续进行春节收单。淡储采购进入 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is bullish with a sideways trend, suggesting a "Long" rating for the urea market [3]. - The cross - period strategy recommends a long position on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low, implying a positive outlook for this spread [3]. - There is no cross - variety strategy recommended [3]. 2. Core View - Urea production and sales have improved. In the first half of the week, snow and rain in some areas affected logistics, cooling the market trading atmosphere and causing spot prices to stabilize or decline. Manufacturers lowered prices to attract orders, and production and sales improved. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production in January. On the demand side, there was some procurement for winter and spring fertilizers, and off - season storage procurement was ongoing. The resumption of production in the compound fertilizer and melamine industries led to increased demand. Overall, urea inventories in factories and ports decreased slightly. International urea prices rose due to the situation in Iran, but there is no new news on domestic export quotas. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On January 22, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1776 yuan/ton (- 3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3), in Henan was - 36 yuan/ton (+ 3), and in Jiangsu was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1]. II. Urea Production - As of January 22, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.39% (a change of 0.08%). The sample enterprise total inventory was 94.60 million tons (- 4.01 million tons), and the port sample inventory was 13.40 million tons (unchanged) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the export profit was 871 yuan/ton (+ 12) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - International urea prices have increased due to the situation in Iran, and the export profit has increased by 12 yuan/ton to 871 yuan/ton [1][2]. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 22, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 42.96% (+ 2.88%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 63.65% (+ 1.47%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (- 0.18) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.01 million tons to 94.60 million tons, and the port sample inventory remained unchanged at 13.40 million tons [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 buy low for positive spread arbitrage - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Partially affected by snow and rain, logistics was hindered, market trading cooled, and spot prices were stable with a slight decline. Manufacturers cut prices to attract orders, and some trading improved. In January, some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, some winter and spring fertilizers started to be purchased, and off - season storage procurement was in progress. The environmental protection restrictions in some areas for compound fertilizers were lifted, leading to increased production and better procurement. Melamine plants resumed production, with increased operation rates and rigid - demand procurement. Affected by weather and logistics, new order trading was average this week, but the demand in the Northeast drove inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Overall, the in - factory inventory of urea decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly. Affected by the situation in Iran, international urea prices rose, but there was no new news about domestic export quotas. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 21, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1779 yuan/ton (+4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (- 10). The price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 29 yuan/ton (- 4), in Henan was - 39 yuan/ton (- 14), and in Jiangsu was - 29 yuan/ton (- 14) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 21, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.25% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - The urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 859 yuan/ton (- 1) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of January 21, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 42.96% (+2.88%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.18% (+7.83%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (- 0.18) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.60 tons (- 4.01), and the port sample inventory was 12.90 tons (- 0.60) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - term: Go for positive spreads on UR05 - 09 when the price is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea futures and spot prices improved in sentiment due to export news. Despite market rumors being refuted, pre - New Year's Eve enterprises still had order - collection needs, leading to better procurement sentiment in the urea spot market. - Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may further suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There are expectations of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance starting in December. - Demand - side off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental warnings. - The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,743 yuan/ton (+8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged). The small - block anthracite was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8), the Henan basis was - 53 yuan/ton (-18), and the Jiangsu basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8) [1] II. Urea Output - As of December 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.78% (0.08% change) [1] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 30, 2025, the urea production profit was 131 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] IV. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of December 30, 2025, the export profit was 822 yuan/ton (+10) [1] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 30, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.75% (-1.62%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.07% (-0.48%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.35 days (+0.11) [1] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 106.89 million tons (-11.08), and the port sample inventory was 17.70 million tons (+3.90) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of urea has weakened, and downstream buyers are making purchases based on rigid demand. In the fourth quarter, gas - based urea plants began maintenance in December, and coal - based plants that were under maintenance have gradually resumed operations. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, and the daily urea output has slightly decreased. Currently, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The operating rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China continues to increase, but some plants in Hubei and other regions have insufficient operations due to raw material and weather factors, and the operating rate in Henan has decreased due to environmental protection. With the introduction of policies to ensure the supply of raw materials such as sulfur, sulfuric acid, and phosphate fertilizers, the sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded, with rigid demand for purchases. As off - season storage progresses, factory inventories are being depleted, and port inventories are slightly increasing. The subsequent purchase rhythm will slow down. Currently, new orders are decreasing, and the spot price has been lowered in major regions, with downstream buyers adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China, the raw material purchase rhythm, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchase sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents information on the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7] 2. Urea Production - It shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes data on production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][26][28] 4. Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - Information on the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between overseas and Chinese prices, and the export profit and disk export profit of urea is provided [31][35][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, as well as the number of days of pending orders, are presented [56] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, and the futures warehouse receipts, as well as the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [54][58][63] Market Analysis Price and Basis - On December 15, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,629 yuan/ton (+4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,670 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,700 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu it was 1,680 yuan/ton (- 10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 71 yuan/ton (- 14), in Henan it was 41 yuan/ton (- 24), and in Jiangsu it was 51 yuan/ton (- 14). The urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (- 10), and the export profit was 844 yuan/ton (- 30) [1] Supply Side - As of December 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 81.85% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2342 million tons (- 56,300), and the inventory of port samples was 123,000 tons (+18,000). In the fourth quarter, gas - based urea plants began maintenance in December, and coal - based plants that were under maintenance have gradually resumed operations. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, and the daily urea output has slightly decreased [1][2] Demand Side - As of December 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.62% (+0.09%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.86% (+0.20%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.94 days (- 0.41). Currently, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The operating rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China continues to increase, but some plants in Hubei and other regions have insufficient operations due to raw material and weather factors, and the operating rate in Henan has decreased due to environmental protection. With the introduction of policies to ensure the supply of raw materials such as sulfur, sulfuric acid, and phosphate fertilizers, the sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded, with rigid demand for purchases [1][2] Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic supply of urea is still in significant oversupply, with high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased again. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but international urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected [4]. - The main logic for market trends is the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, returning to fundamentals after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled. Domestic supply has high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased. Industrial demand (such as for compound fertilizers and melamine) and agricultural demand are both expected to decline. The overall domestic supply of urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 84, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is volatile. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been more liberal than expected, and the domestic supply is still in significant oversupply. It is expected that UR will be volatile today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high开工 and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **Spot Market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (+10), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2746 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The 01 contract price is 1726 (-21), the UR05 contract price is 1771 (-17), and the UR09 contract price is 1715 (-11). The basis is 84 (+21) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 3823 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea industry has shown continuous growth in production capacity, production, and consumption. The production capacity growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 8.9%, 15.5%, 11.4%, 8.4%, 14.1%, and 13.5% respectively. The consumption growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 12.8%, 17.9%, 2.6%, 0.3%, 5.9%, and 8.4% respectively. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend [10].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit on rallies [3] Core Viewpoints - Some urea plants restarted, leading to a continuous increase in capacity utilization and a rising supply pressure. Production remains at a high level. It is currently the peak agricultural demand season, with agricultural demand continuing to advance. Compound fertilizer production has increased, and raw material procurement for autumn fertilizers has begun, resulting in a phased increase in urea demand. Industrial demand remains weak, with melamine production decreasing month-on-month and the panel industry sluggish. Urea exports are improving, with increased port collection intentions, leading to a continuous increase in port inventories and a decrease in upstream factory inventories [2] Section Summaries 1. Urea Basis Structure - Analyzes the market prices of small granular urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and the price spreads between different periods [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - Focuses on the weekly urea production and the loss of production due to plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal-based and gas-based urea [20][27] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - Examines the FOB prices of small and large granular urea in the Baltic and Southeast Asia, as well as the export profit and the profit on the futures market [29][31][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Considers the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine production, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Looks at the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [49][52][54]