1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Volatile [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when it's at a low level [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Some manufacturers' price cuts have improved order collection, and agricultural demand is following up. The price is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival. On the supply side, some gas - based and technical - renovation enterprises resumed production in January, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers are conducting Spring Festival order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer operation rate increased slightly this week, at a relatively high level. The downstream fertilizer demand is approaching, and the sales are improving. There is an expected decline in operation rate before the Spring Festival. The melamine operation rate decreased due to more temporary shutdowns this week, with only rigid demand. The overall inventory in urea factories decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the Iranian situation, international urea prices rose. India is expected to tender again. There is no new information about the domestic export quota, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 5, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1778 yuan/ton (- 9); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1760 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle urea price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (+ 10); the small - particle urea price in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (+ 10); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+ 19); the basis in Henan was - 18 yuan/ton (+ 9); the basis in Jiangsu was 22 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 5, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.14% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - On February 5, 2026, the urea production profit was 215 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - On February 5, 2026, the export profit was 943 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of February 5, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 41.79% (+ 0.45%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.95% (- 8.50%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 8.82 days (+ 2.23) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1]

下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-02，尿素主力收盘1787元/吨（-3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1770元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-17 元/吨（-17）；河南基差：-17元/吨（+3）；江苏基差：13元/吨（+3）；尿素生产利润205元/吨（-20），出口利润936 元/吨（+8）。 供应端：截至2026-02-02，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.49 万吨（-0.11），港口样本 库存量为14.40 万吨（+1.00）。 需求端：截至2026-02-02，复合肥产能利用率41.34%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为66.45%（+2.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.59日（+0.71）。 尿素日报 | 2026-02-03 尿素价格窄幅震荡，农业需求跟进，春节收单压力较小，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加 技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家陆续进行春节收单。淡储采购进入 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 long the spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - After the urea price rose last week, new order transactions slowed down, and some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes to sell goods. The transaction in East China improved. In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, some winter and spring fertilizers started to be purchased, and off - season storage procurement was in progress. The environmental protection restrictions in some areas of compound fertilizers were lifted, the start - up rate increased, and procurement improved. The melamine plants resumed production, the start - up rate increased, and there was rigid demand for procurement. The in - factory inventory of urea was basically flat this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 3.62 million tons of bids from 26 suppliers, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The current domestic export quota has no new news, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 12, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1,783 yuan/ton (+6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,730 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu it was 1,740 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was - 53 yuan/ton (-26), in Henan it was - 43 yuan/ton (-16), and in Jiangsu it was - 43 yuan/ton (-26) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.28% (+0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 165 yuan/ton (-20) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 850 yuan/ton (+12). On January 2nd, the Indian NFL urea import tender received bids from 26 suppliers for 3.62 million tons, with the lowest offer of CFR 426.8 US dollars/ton on the East Coast and 424.8 US dollars/ton on the West Coast, up 5 - 8 US dollars/ton from the previous tender. The Indian NFL counter - offered to purchase 1.5 million tons and has currently booked 1 million tons [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of January 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.17% (+3.28%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 54.35% (+6.70%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0222 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 135,000 tons (-37,000) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is a correction, while the medium - term trend is bullish. The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily urea output remains high. The demand side shows seasonal strengthening in agricultural demand, and the fundamentals of urea are improving. The subsequent upward drive depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment. [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, BoDa, JinKai, DongPing), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices of urea over the years. [6][7][20] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 3920000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640000 tons. In 2026, it is expected to add 6510000 tons of new capacity. [24] Production Plan - Lists the production plans of urea enterprises, including start - up and shutdown situations and reasons. [26] Output - The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily urea output remains high. The charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and the daily output of coal - based and gas - based urea in China over the years. [27][28] Cost - The raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. Cost calculations for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi are provided, along with the full - cost trends of urea in different production processes (fluidized - bed, fixed - bed, natural - gas) over the years. [30][31] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. Charts show the cash - flow profit and production profit of urea in different production processes over the years. [35][36] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, the export policy is tightened. Tables show the monthly net import (export) data of urea from 2018 to 2025 (E), and charts show the export profit and export volume of small - particle urea over the years. [40][41] Domestic Demand Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strengthening. Different regions have different fertilizer - using seasons and crop types. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory of compound fertilizers over the years. [46][47][49] Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers are presented through charts of capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory. [56][53] - **Melamine**: Charts show the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine over the years. [57][58] - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. Charts show the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real - estate construction and completion data over the years. [60][61] Inventory - Factory inventory: On January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.30 million tons, or 0.29%. - Port inventory: As of January 8, 2026 (week 2), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 140000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32000 tons, or 18.60%. [66] International Urea - Multiple charts show the trends of FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil over the years. [70][71][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term view: The urea market will be in a state of oscillation. The speculation in the fertilizer sector is suppressed by policies related to sulfur and phosphate fertilizers, resulting in neutral spot trading. However, due to the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak season in 2026, the 05 contract has a downside support [2]. - Medium - term view: The central price level of urea will move upwards. The fundamentals of urea have improved stage - by - stage with continuous procurement from reserves and the grassroots level. The subsequent upward momentum depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts related to urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, including the basis of different enterprises (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), 5 - 9 monthly spreads, 1 - 5 monthly spreads, 9 - 1 monthly spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts. It also shows domestic and international spot price trends of urea [5][9][16][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued. A number of enterprises added new production capacity, with a total of 664 million tons of new capacity added in 2025. Some enterprises also had device restarts and capacity replacements [24]. - **Production Plan**: The report lists the maintenance plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including the start and end dates of maintenance, raw materials, and reasons for maintenance [26]. - **Output**: Despite the production profit being around the break - even point, the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report also shows the historical trends of urea output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based urea output in China [27][28]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. The report provides cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, fluidized - bed, natural gas) of urea in Shanxi region [30]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the historical profit trends of different production processes of urea [35]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, the export policy has tightened. The report provides historical data on China's urea net import (export) volume from 2018 - 2025 [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. The demand for different crops in different regions and seasons is presented, and the high - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [46][49]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production gross profit, and inventory trends of compound fertilizers in China [53]. - **Melamine**: It presents the production gross profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate trends of melamine in China [57]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports show resilience. The report provides data on the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real estate construction and completion area [60]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. The upstream inventory accumulation pattern continues. As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from the previous week [63][66]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the historical price trends of large - granular urea FOB in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and large - granular urea CFR in Brazil [70][71][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend of urea is under pressure this week. Although exports are accelerating, the price - driving effect is expected to be limited due to pre - prepared goods by traders. Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and it is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. The medium - term trend is under pressure. The inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to show a slight accumulation pattern next week. [2][3][4] - For trading strategies, the unilateral trend is weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and spot transactions during the week. The upper pressure is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 1600 - 1620 yuan/ton. For the 01 contract, it is recommended to short at high prices. For inter - period spreads, conduct reverse spreads for 10 - 1/11 - 1 month spreads and 1 - 5 month spreads. There is no suggestion for inter - variety spreads. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spreads - The report presents multiple charts about urea basis (including Zhengyuan, Jinkai, Boda, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, showing the price and spread trends of urea over the years. [7][11][17][22] 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 4270,000 tons, and in 2025, the expected new capacity is 3,460,000 tons. Multiple enterprises have new capacity coming on - stream or old capacity being replaced. [26] - **Production Plan**: The report lists the overhaul plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including details such as the start and end dates of shutdowns, reasons, and whether the shutdowns are on schedule. [30] - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high. The report also shows the historical trends of daily output and capacity utilization rate of urea in China. [31][32] - **Cost**: Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for different production processes in Shanxi, such as fixed - bed and gas - based processes, and shows the historical trends of full - cost curves for different processes. [34] - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the profit trends of different production processes (fixed - bed, fluid - bed, gas - based) over the years. [40] - **Net Import (Export)**: With the adjustment of export policies, subsequent export volumes may increase. The report provides monthly and annual export data from 2018 to 2025. [45] 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal characteristics. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The report details the agricultural demand for urea in different regions and seasons throughout the year. [51][54] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry has low capacity utilization, high inventory, and low production profit. The report shows relevant data trends over the years. [59][60] - **Melamine**: The production profit of melamine has certain fluctuations, and its output and capacity utilization also show corresponding trends. [62][63] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report shows the export data of wood products and the trends of real - estate construction and completion areas. [64][65] 3.4 Inventory - Factory inventory: On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,700 tons or 3.44%. The inventory of some enterprises decreased due to export orders, while that of non - exporting enterprises increased due to weak domestic demand. [70] - Port inventory: As of September 11, 2025 (week 37), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 549,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,500 tons or 11.52%. The port inventory trend changed from rising to falling. [70] 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as CFR prices in Brazil over the years. [73][74]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit on rallies [3] Core Viewpoints - Some urea plants restarted, leading to a continuous increase in capacity utilization and a rising supply pressure. Production remains at a high level. It is currently the peak agricultural demand season, with agricultural demand continuing to advance. Compound fertilizer production has increased, and raw material procurement for autumn fertilizers has begun, resulting in a phased increase in urea demand. Industrial demand remains weak, with melamine production decreasing month-on-month and the panel industry sluggish. Urea exports are improving, with increased port collection intentions, leading to a continuous increase in port inventories and a decrease in upstream factory inventories [2] Section Summaries 1. Urea Basis Structure - Analyzes the market prices of small granular urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and the price spreads between different periods [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - Focuses on the weekly urea production and the loss of production due to plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal-based and gas-based urea [20][27] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - Examines the FOB prices of small and large granular urea in the Baltic and Southeast Asia, as well as the export profit and the profit on the futures market [29][31][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Considers the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine production, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Looks at the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [49][52][54]