尿素日报 | 2026-01-13 现货价格小幅下调 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-12，尿素主力收盘1783元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1740 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1730元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1740元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-53 元/吨（-26）；河南基差：-43元/吨（-16）；江苏基差：-43元/吨（-26）；尿素生产利润165元/吨（-20），出口利润850 元/吨（+12）。 供应端：截至2026-01-12，企业产能利用率83.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为102.22 万吨（+0.30），港口样本 库存量为13.50 万吨（-3.70）。 需求端：截至2026-01-12，复合肥产能利用率37.17%（+3.28%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为54.35%（+6.70%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.41日（+0.41）。 尿素上周价格上涨后新单成交放缓，部分厂家小幅下调报价出货，华东地区成交好转。供应端1月部分气头叠加技 改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端后续冬腊肥和返青肥部分开始采购。淡储采购进行中。复 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期回调，中期偏强 • 本周(20260101-0107)，中国尿素生产企业产能利用率83.22%，较上期涨2.93%，趋势继续上涨。周期内新增5家企业装置停车，9家停车企业 （装置）恢复生产，延续上周期的装置变化，产能利用率明显上升。中国尿素生产企业煤制产能利用率：93.06%，较上期涨3.47%；中国尿素 生产企业气制产能利用率：47.56%，较上期跌0.84%。下周，中国尿素生产企业周产能利用率预计在83-84%附近，较本期小幅提升。下个周期 暂无企业装置计划停车，2家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，在延续本周期的装置变化，下个周期产能利用率增加的概 率较大。（隆众资讯） 风险点 • 出口政策调整、煤炭价格大幅波动、海外能源价格大幅波动、海外地缘政治风险； Special ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期中枢上移 • 本周(20251225-1231)，中国尿素生产企业产能利用率80.29%，较上期涨1.52%，趋势小幅上涨。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，6家停车企业（装置）恢复生产，延续 上周期的装置变化，产能利用率由降转升。中国尿素生产企业煤制产能利用率：89.59%，较上期涨2.53%；中国尿素生产企业气制产能利用率：48.40%，较上期跌 1.97%。下周，中国尿素生产企业周产能利用率预计在81-82%附近，较本期小幅提升。下个周期预计3家企业装置计划停车，5家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到 企业的短时故障，在延续本周期的装置变化，下个周期产能利用率增加的概率较大。（隆众资讯） 风险点 • 出口政策调整、煤炭价格大幅波动、海外能源价格大幅波动、海外地缘政治风险； Speci ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend of urea is under pressure this week. Although exports are accelerating, the price - driving effect is expected to be limited due to pre - prepared goods by traders. Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and it is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. The medium - term trend is under pressure. The inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to show a slight accumulation pattern next week. [2][3][4] - For trading strategies, the unilateral trend is weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and spot transactions during the week. The upper pressure is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 1600 - 1620 yuan/ton. For the 01 contract, it is recommended to short at high prices. For inter - period spreads, conduct reverse spreads for 10 - 1/11 - 1 month spreads and 1 - 5 month spreads. There is no suggestion for inter - variety spreads. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spreads - The report presents multiple charts about urea basis (including Zhengyuan, Jinkai, Boda, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, showing the price and spread trends of urea over the years. [7][11][17][22] 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 4270,000 tons, and in 2025, the expected new capacity is 3,460,000 tons. Multiple enterprises have new capacity coming on - stream or old capacity being replaced. [26] - **Production Plan**: The report lists the overhaul plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including details such as the start and end dates of shutdowns, reasons, and whether the shutdowns are on schedule. [30] - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high. The report also shows the historical trends of daily output and capacity utilization rate of urea in China. [31][32] - **Cost**: Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for different production processes in Shanxi, such as fixed - bed and gas - based processes, and shows the historical trends of full - cost curves for different processes. [34] - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the profit trends of different production processes (fixed - bed, fluid - bed, gas - based) over the years. [40] - **Net Import (Export)**: With the adjustment of export policies, subsequent export volumes may increase. The report provides monthly and annual export data from 2018 to 2025. [45] 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal characteristics. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The report details the agricultural demand for urea in different regions and seasons throughout the year. [51][54] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry has low capacity utilization, high inventory, and low production profit. The report shows relevant data trends over the years. [59][60] - **Melamine**: The production profit of melamine has certain fluctuations, and its output and capacity utilization also show corresponding trends. [62][63] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report shows the export data of wood products and the trends of real - estate construction and completion areas. [64][65] 3.4 Inventory - Factory inventory: On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,700 tons or 3.44%. The inventory of some enterprises decreased due to export orders, while that of non - exporting enterprises increased due to weak domestic demand. [70] - Port inventory: As of September 11, 2025 (week 37), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 549,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,500 tons or 11.52%. The port inventory trend changed from rising to falling. [70] 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as CFR prices in Brazil over the years. [73][74]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit on rallies [3] Core Viewpoints - Some urea plants restarted, leading to a continuous increase in capacity utilization and a rising supply pressure. Production remains at a high level. It is currently the peak agricultural demand season, with agricultural demand continuing to advance. Compound fertilizer production has increased, and raw material procurement for autumn fertilizers has begun, resulting in a phased increase in urea demand. Industrial demand remains weak, with melamine production decreasing month-on-month and the panel industry sluggish. Urea exports are improving, with increased port collection intentions, leading to a continuous increase in port inventories and a decrease in upstream factory inventories [2] Section Summaries 1. Urea Basis Structure - Analyzes the market prices of small granular urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and the price spreads between different periods [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - Focuses on the weekly urea production and the loss of production due to plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal-based and gas-based urea [20][27] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - Examines the FOB prices of small and large granular urea in the Baltic and Southeast Asia, as well as the export profit and the profit on the futures market [29][31][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Considers the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine production, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Looks at the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [49][52][54]