国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年09月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：趋势承压 • 本周(20250904-0910)，中国尿素生产企业产能利用率79.34%，较上期涨1.24%，趋势由降转升。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，停车企业（装置）恢复4家， 延续上周期的装置变化，产能利用率逐步上升。中国尿素生产企业煤制产能利用率：81.47%，较上期涨1.61%；中国尿素生产企业气制产能利用率： 72.34%，较上期持平。下周，中国尿素生产企业周产能利用率预计在80-81%附近，较本期小幅上涨。下个周期预计1家企业计划停车，5-6家停车企业可 能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，在延续本周期的装置变化，下个周期产能利用率上涨的概率较大。（隆众资讯） • 内需方面，内需持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显下滑 ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit on rallies [3] Core Viewpoints - Some urea plants restarted, leading to a continuous increase in capacity utilization and a rising supply pressure. Production remains at a high level. It is currently the peak agricultural demand season, with agricultural demand continuing to advance. Compound fertilizer production has increased, and raw material procurement for autumn fertilizers has begun, resulting in a phased increase in urea demand. Industrial demand remains weak, with melamine production decreasing month-on-month and the panel industry sluggish. Urea exports are improving, with increased port collection intentions, leading to a continuous increase in port inventories and a decrease in upstream factory inventories [2] Section Summaries 1. Urea Basis Structure - Analyzes the market prices of small granular urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and the price spreads between different periods [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - Focuses on the weekly urea production and the loss of production due to plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal-based and gas-based urea [20][27] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - Examines the FOB prices of small and large granular urea in the Baltic and Southeast Asia, as well as the export profit and the profit on the futures market [29][31][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Considers the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine production, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Looks at the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [49][52][54]