尿素日报 | 2026-03-03 现货价格跟随3月指导价上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-03-02，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（-30）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+30）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+30）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： 73元/吨（+60）；河南基差：43元/吨（+60）；江苏基差：73元/吨（+60）；尿素生产利润325元/吨（+30），出口利 润1239元/吨（+94）。 供应端：截至2026-03-02，企业产能利用率93.16%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.60 万吨（+14.56），港口样 本库存量为17.40 万吨（+0.80）。 需求端：截至2026-03-02，复合肥产能利用率33.41%（+8.91%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.91%（-8.26%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.12日（-2.29）。 节后现货成交较好，主产销区现货报价2月底达到2月尿素指导价，3月指导价较2月上调30元/吨，现货3月报价跟涨 30元/吨。供应端部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。部分淡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Bullish with a sideways trend [3] - Inter - period: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread when the price is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the trading volume was good. The manufacturers had no pressure in receiving orders during the Spring Festival, and the prices remained stable. In the later stage of the festival, some agricultural demand started. It is expected that the spot price in February will remain stable for the time being. The supply will increase as some gas - based and technological - reformed enterprises resume production, and 10% of the off - season reserve goods will be released in February. After the Spring Festival, the demand for green - turning fertilizers will gradually start, the compound fertilizer plants will resume production, the melamine plants will increase their operating rates, and the overall inventory in urea plants will decrease while the port inventory will slightly increase. The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender, and the domestic export quota has no new news. Attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 24, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1855 yuan/ton (+22). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1830 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1850 yuan/ton (+40), and in Jiangsu was 1850 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 5 yuan/ton (+18), in Henan was - 25 yuan/ton (- 2), and in Jiangsu was - 5 yuan/ton (+8) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 24, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 90.59% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (- 8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.60 tons (unchanged) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 285 yuan/ton (+40), and the export profit was 1175 yuan/ton (+126) [1] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intended volume of 1.5 million tons (700,000 tons on the east coast and 800,000 tons on the west coast). The tender was opened on February 18, valid until February 28, and the latest shipping date was March 31. A total of 3.07 million tons of bids were received from 20 suppliers. The lowest offer on the east coast was CFR 512 US dollars/ton, and on the west coast was CFR 508 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 24, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.50% (- 11.69%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.17% (+3.40), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 24, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (- 8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.60 tons (unchanged) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is affected by news, with the futures market showing a strong trend. The current urea guidance price remains unchanged, and manufacturers have no pressure in pre - holiday orders. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival [2] - In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers' pre - holiday orders are mostly completed. Some off - season reserve supplies will be released in February. Near the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer production rate decreased, while the melamine production rate increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea factories decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [2] - Due to the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention of 150,000 tons. The follow - up needs to focus on export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,843 yuan/ton (+46). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,810 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,800 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,810 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (-36), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-46) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of February 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 90.59% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 235 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,049 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report does not provide specific information on foreign market prices and export profit other than the export profit data mentioned above [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19% (-5.60%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77% (+2.82%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 when the spread is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Volatile [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when it's at a low level [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Some manufacturers' price cuts have improved order collection, and agricultural demand is following up. The price is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival. On the supply side, some gas - based and technical - renovation enterprises resumed production in January, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers are conducting Spring Festival order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer operation rate increased slightly this week, at a relatively high level. The downstream fertilizer demand is approaching, and the sales are improving. There is an expected decline in operation rate before the Spring Festival. The melamine operation rate decreased due to more temporary shutdowns this week, with only rigid demand. The overall inventory in urea factories decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the Iranian situation, international urea prices rose. India is expected to tender again. There is no new information about the domestic export quota, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 5, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1778 yuan/ton (- 9); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1760 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle urea price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (+ 10); the small - particle urea price in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (+ 10); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+ 19); the basis in Henan was - 18 yuan/ton (+ 9); the basis in Jiangsu was 22 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 5, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.14% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - On February 5, 2026, the urea production profit was 215 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - On February 5, 2026, the export profit was 943 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of February 5, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 41.79% (+ 0.45%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.95% (- 8.50%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 8.82 days (+ 2.23) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1]

下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-02，尿素主力收盘1787元/吨（-3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1770元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-17 元/吨（-17）；河南基差：-17元/吨（+3）；江苏基差：13元/吨（+3）；尿素生产利润205元/吨（-20），出口利润936 元/吨（+8）。 供应端：截至2026-02-02，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.49 万吨（-0.11），港口样本 库存量为14.40 万吨（+1.00）。 需求端：截至2026-02-02，复合肥产能利用率41.34%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为66.45%（+2.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.59日（+0.71）。 尿素日报 | 2026-02-03 尿素价格窄幅震荡，农业需求跟进，春节收单压力较小，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加 技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家陆续进行春节收单。淡储采购进入 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is bullish with a sideways trend, suggesting a "Long" rating for the urea market [3]. - The cross - period strategy recommends a long position on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low, implying a positive outlook for this spread [3]. - There is no cross - variety strategy recommended [3]. 2. Core View - Urea production and sales have improved. In the first half of the week, snow and rain in some areas affected logistics, cooling the market trading atmosphere and causing spot prices to stabilize or decline. Manufacturers lowered prices to attract orders, and production and sales improved. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production in January. On the demand side, there was some procurement for winter and spring fertilizers, and off - season storage procurement was ongoing. The resumption of production in the compound fertilizer and melamine industries led to increased demand. Overall, urea inventories in factories and ports decreased slightly. International urea prices rose due to the situation in Iran, but there is no new news on domestic export quotas. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On January 22, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1776 yuan/ton (- 3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3), in Henan was - 36 yuan/ton (+ 3), and in Jiangsu was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1]. II. Urea Production - As of January 22, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.39% (a change of 0.08%). The sample enterprise total inventory was 94.60 million tons (- 4.01 million tons), and the port sample inventory was 13.40 million tons (unchanged) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the export profit was 871 yuan/ton (+ 12) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - International urea prices have increased due to the situation in Iran, and the export profit has increased by 12 yuan/ton to 871 yuan/ton [1][2]. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 22, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 42.96% (+ 2.88%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 63.65% (+ 1.47%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (- 0.18) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.01 million tons to 94.60 million tons, and the port sample inventory remained unchanged at 13.40 million tons [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 buy low for positive spread arbitrage - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Partially affected by snow and rain, logistics was hindered, market trading cooled, and spot prices were stable with a slight decline. Manufacturers cut prices to attract orders, and some trading improved. In January, some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, some winter and spring fertilizers started to be purchased, and off - season storage procurement was in progress. The environmental protection restrictions in some areas for compound fertilizers were lifted, leading to increased production and better procurement. Melamine plants resumed production, with increased operation rates and rigid - demand procurement. Affected by weather and logistics, new order trading was average this week, but the demand in the Northeast drove inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Overall, the in - factory inventory of urea decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly. Affected by the situation in Iran, international urea prices rose, but there was no new news about domestic export quotas. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 21, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1779 yuan/ton (+4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (- 10). The price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 29 yuan/ton (- 4), in Henan was - 39 yuan/ton (- 14), and in Jiangsu was - 29 yuan/ton (- 14) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 21, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.25% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - The urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 859 yuan/ton (- 1) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of January 21, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 42.96% (+2.88%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.18% (+7.83%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (- 0.18) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.60 tons (- 4.01), and the port sample inventory was 12.90 tons (- 0.60) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 long the spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - After the urea price rose last week, new order transactions slowed down, and some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes to sell goods. The transaction in East China improved. In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, some winter and spring fertilizers started to be purchased, and off - season storage procurement was in progress. The environmental protection restrictions in some areas of compound fertilizers were lifted, the start - up rate increased, and procurement improved. The melamine plants resumed production, the start - up rate increased, and there was rigid demand for procurement. The in - factory inventory of urea was basically flat this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 3.62 million tons of bids from 26 suppliers, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The current domestic export quota has no new news, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 12, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1,783 yuan/ton (+6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,730 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu it was 1,740 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was - 53 yuan/ton (-26), in Henan it was - 43 yuan/ton (-16), and in Jiangsu it was - 43 yuan/ton (-26) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.28% (+0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 165 yuan/ton (-20) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 850 yuan/ton (+12). On January 2nd, the Indian NFL urea import tender received bids from 26 suppliers for 3.62 million tons, with the lowest offer of CFR 426.8 US dollars/ton on the East Coast and 424.8 US dollars/ton on the West Coast, up 5 - 8 US dollars/ton from the previous tender. The Indian NFL counter - offered to purchase 1.5 million tons and has currently booked 1 million tons [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of January 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.17% (+3.28%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 54.35% (+6.70%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0222 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 135,000 tons (-37,000) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is bullish with oscillations, and the UR05 - 09 calendar spread strategy is to go long on the spread when it is low [3] Core View - After the New Year's Day holiday, the trading atmosphere of urea improved. The futures market was bullish, driving up spot prices. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production in January. The off - season storage procurement was ongoing. The compound fertilizer market's sentiment cooled due to raw material supply policies but improved after the lifting of environmental restrictions in some areas. Melamine had rigid demand. Both factory and port inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [4][5] II. Urea Production - The report presents figures on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [4][5] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows figures on production cost, spot production profit, on - paper production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [4][5] IV. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - The report contains figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the price difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China FOB minus 30, the price difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China FOB, urea export profit, and on - paper export profit [4][5] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report provides figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [4][5] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - term: Go for positive spreads on UR05 - 09 when the price is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea futures and spot prices improved in sentiment due to export news. Despite market rumors being refuted, pre - New Year's Eve enterprises still had order - collection needs, leading to better procurement sentiment in the urea spot market. - Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may further suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There are expectations of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance starting in December. - Demand - side off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental warnings. - The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,743 yuan/ton (+8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged). The small - block anthracite was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8), the Henan basis was - 53 yuan/ton (-18), and the Jiangsu basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8) [1] II. Urea Output - As of December 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.78% (0.08% change) [1] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 30, 2025, the urea production profit was 131 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] IV. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of December 30, 2025, the export profit was 822 yuan/ton (+10) [1] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 30, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.75% (-1.62%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.07% (-0.48%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.35 days (+0.11) [1] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 106.89 million tons (-11.08), and the port sample inventory was 17.70 million tons (+3.90) [1]