尿素日报 | 2026-01-07 现货成交氛围延续，印标结果出炉 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-06，尿素主力收盘1778元/吨（+10）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1740元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1750元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -38元/吨（+10）；河南基差：-28元/吨（+20）；江苏基差：-28元/吨（+10）；尿素生产利润175元/吨（+20），出口 利润864元/吨（+46）。 供应端：截至2026-01-06，企业产能利用率80.29%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.92 万吨（-4.97），港口样本 库存量为17.20 万吨（-0.50）。 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 需求端：截至2026-01-06，复合肥产能利用率33.89%（-3.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为47.65%（-10.42%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.00日（-0.35）。 尿素元旦节后部分地区环保限制解除， ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-06 节后收单氛围好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-05，尿素主力收盘1768元/吨（+19）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1720 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1720元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1730元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -48元/吨（-9）；河南基差：-48元/吨（+1）；江苏基差：-38元/吨（+1）；尿素生产利润155元/吨（+10），出口利润 819元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2026-01-05，企业产能利用率80.29%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.92 万吨（-4.97），港口样本 库存量为17.20 万吨（-0.50）。 需求端：截至2026-01-05，复合肥产能利用率33.89%（-3.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为47.65%（-10.42%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.00日（-0.35）。 尿素企业元旦期间成交一般，待发尚可，价格稳中有降，元旦节后部分地区环保限制解除，成交好转，期货盘面 震荡偏强进一步带动现货采购情绪，现货价格小幅上涨，主流生产企业实行限收政策，待发增加。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The urea futures market rebounded last week due to news stimulus, but there is no official confirmation. Fundamentally, there is limited rigid support, and the upside potential of the futures price is restricted. It is expected that the futures price will experience a correction [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics Since the New Year's Day holiday, the market has been weak, with poor order receipts and mostly low - price purchases. Recently, the futures have continued to rebound, the spot sentiment has improved, the purchasing rhythm has become smoother, and most quotes have risen [1][3][4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - **Price and Volume**: By January 5th, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1,768 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 29th. The weekly trading volume last week was 13.1874 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146,800 tons; the open interest was 6.2529 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 331,500 tons [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The futures increase was greater than the spot increase last week, and the basis weakened. As of January 5th, the basis of the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/ton. As of December 22nd, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4 yuan/ton [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On January 5, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,376, a week - on - week increase of 1,626 [9]. 3.3 Urea Supply - **Production**: From December 25th to December 31st, the weekly urea production was 1.3591 million tons, an increase of 25,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%. The average daily production was 194,100 tons. It is expected that 3 enterprises will stop production and 5 will resume production in the next cycle. As of January 5th, the national daily urea production was 202,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57% [11]. - **Raw Materials**: Near the end of the year, coal mines are expected to reduce production, and coal prices are expected to be strong. The domestic LNG price decreased last week. The synthetic ammonia price increased, while the urea spot price decreased. The methanol spot price also decreased [13][14]. 3.4 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of January 2nd, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was quoted at 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Affected by environmental protection warnings, the compound fertilizer operating rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the environmental protection warnings may ease in mid - January, but the factories will gradually enter the holiday season [16]. - **Melamine**: From December 26th to January 2nd, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 47.65%, a decrease of 10.42 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate is expected to increase as the previously shut - down plants resume production [16]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2nd, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 172,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The port inventory is expected to rise [18]. 3.5 International Market - **Production and Tendering**: Iran has cut production, and the price center has moved up. India's NFL urea import tender opened on January 2nd, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons [20]. - **Prices**: As of January 2nd, most of the international urea prices showed an upward trend, with some exceptions for large - particle Chinese FOB prices [20][22].

尿素日报 | 2025-12-31 消息扰动情绪好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-30，尿素主力收盘1743元/吨（+8）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1690 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-33 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-53元/吨（-18）；江苏基差：-33元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润131元/吨（+0），出口利润822 元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-12-30，企业产能利用率78.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为17.70 万吨（+3.90）。 需求端：截至2025-12-30，复合肥产能利用率37.75%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.07%（-0.48%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.35日（+0.11）。 尿素期现受出口消息影响情绪好转，虽市场紧急辟谣，但元旦前企业仍有收单需求，尿素现货市场采购情绪好转。 河北、河南环保预警再现，尿素企业及下游工业开工或继续受抑制。供应端四季度气头检修12月开 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-30 部分区域现货降价成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-29，尿素主力收盘1735元/吨（+0）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1700 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-25 元/吨（-20）；河南基差：-35元/吨（-10）；江苏基差：-25元/吨（-10）；尿素生产利润131元/吨（-20），出口利润812 元/吨（-7）。 供应端：截至2025-12-29，企业产能利用率78.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为17.70 万吨（+3.90）。 需求端：截至2025-12-29，复合肥产能利用率37.75%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.07%（-0.48%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.35日（+0.11）。 尿素出厂价小幅降价吸单，部分主产区成交小幅好转。河北、河南环保预警再现，尿素企业及下游工业开工或继 续受抑制。供应端四季度气头检修12月开始，环保预警使得供应端有减量预期。需 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-16 下游复合肥情绪观望，尿素震荡 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-15，尿素主力收盘1629元/吨（+4）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1670 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1700元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1680元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：71 元/吨（-14）；河南基差：41元/吨（-24）；江苏基差：51元/吨（-14）；尿素生产利润170元/吨（-10），出口利润844 元/吨（-30）。 供应端：截至2025-12-15，企业产能利用率81.85%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为123.42 万吨（-5.63），港口样本 库存量为12.30 万吨（+1.80）。 需求端：截至2025-12-15，复合肥产能利用率40.62%（+0.09%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.86%（+0.20%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.94日（-0.41）。 尿素现货价格松动，下游刚需采购。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐开始，前期煤头企业检修逐步恢复，目前2025 年新增产能全部投产，尿素日产量小幅下降。需求端当前淡储采购进行中，复 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of urea are relatively strong, and there is support for the decline in the futures price. Although the urea futures price dropped on Monday, it is difficult for it to fall significantly under the support of gas restrictions, exports, and winter storage. During the roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices rose steadily during the week. Although high - price order transactions were limited, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and a strong willingness to hold prices. Since the weekend, prices have remained stable, and new order transactions are limited [3]. 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price showed different trends each day. As of December 8, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,646 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 1. The weekly trading volume was 1,163.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86 million tons; the open interest was 712.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton. On December 8, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,526, a week - on - week increase of 3,589 [5][8]. 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly output decreased. From November 27 to December 3, the weekly output was 1.3851 billion tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%. Coal - based weekly output decreased slightly, and gas - based weekly output decreased by 9.26%. In the next cycle, the output is still expected to decrease mainly. On December 8, the national daily output of urea was 202,800 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57%. The price of动力煤 (steam coal) decreased, and the price of liquefied natural gas, synthetic ammonia, and methanol also declined [12][13][15]. 4. Urea Demand - side - As of December 5, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased. The compound fertilizer factory's new orders were few, and it mainly executed previous orders. The operating load continued to increase, and the finished - product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate was close to the historical high level, and the room for further increase in operation was limited. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, but there was a risk of weak growth in the future. Urea inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to rise [17][19]. 5. International Market - International urea prices declined across the board this week. After the end of the Indian tender, the international urea market was mainly stable. The next round of tender is expected to start in January next year, and the next procurement cycle in the US is expected to be from January to February 2026. As of December 5, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in various regions decreased week - on - week [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The urea market is in a narrow - range shock pattern. The recovery of urea maintenance devices has increased the daily output. Agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, but the increase in the start - up rate of compound fertilizers and the strengthening of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin provide support. Against the background of high daily output and high inventory, the continuous upward momentum of urea is insufficient, and the reference range for the 01 contract is 1600 - 1700 [3]. Summary by Directory Market Changes - The weekly price center of urea has moved slightly upward. On November 21, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1654 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from last week, with a maximum of 1675 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1641 yuan/ton during the period. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1630 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from last week, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The main - contract basis of urea has continuously strengthened, and on November 21, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 24 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 68) - (- 24) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea fluctuated in a narrow range, and on November 21, the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 75) - (- 70) yuan/ton [3][4][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of China's urea plants is 85.85%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 72.89%, unchanged from last week, and the daily average output of urea is 20.29 tons. Next week, some maintenance devices in Shanxi, Henan, Yunnan and other places are planned to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase slightly [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market is running stably. As of November 20, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi is 900 - 960 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as last week [3][14]. Demand - In the north, winter wheat is in the concentrated sowing period, with more than 50% sown in Shandong, nearly 30% in Henan, nearly 70% in Shanxi, nearly 40% in Jiangsu, nearly 70% in Hubei, more than 40% in Sichuan, and more than 30% in Chongqing. In the south, late rice is in the large - scale harvesting stage, with the harvest basically completed in Hunan and Jiangxi, about 30% in Zhejiang, and more than 50% in Guangxi. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory is 65.48 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from last week. Recently, the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, and the speed of finished product destocking has slowed down. The support of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin has strengthened [3][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 124.6 tons, a decrease of 3.7 tons from last week. Urea port inventory is 27.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts is 7183, totaling 14.366 tons, unchanged from last week [3][28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have declined from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The UR2601 contract basis is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.7%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are the strong international price and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is slightly down. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak. Export volume increases with large price difference, but domestic market is still oversupplied. Spot price of delivery product is 1570 (+0), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is -74, premium/discount ratio is -4.7%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today considering weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international prices and increasing export volume, but obvious domestic oversupply [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 with an 11.0% growth rate [9]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1570 with no change, Shandong spot price is 1580 with no change, Henan spot price is 1570 with no change, and FOB China price is 2690 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1644 (+11), the basis is -74 (-11), UR05 price is 1727 (+12), and UR09 price is 1750 (+11) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), the UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 11 million tons [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The international urea price is strong, but the export policy has not been significantly liberalized, and the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high level. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has rebounded, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The domestic urea market still has an obvious oversupply situation, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 60, and the premium/discount ratio is 3.5%, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons (-4.0), which is bearish [5]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Likely Factors**: The international price is strong, which is a bullish factor; the high operating rate and daily production, as well as the weak domestic demand, are bearish factors. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [6]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1730 (-30), the Henan spot price is 1740 (0), and the FOB China price is 3271 [7]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1670 (-11), the basis is 60 (-19), the price of the UR05 contract is 1725 (-9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1745 (-10) [7]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 8188 (-80), the comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 88.8 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 48.3 million tons [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown certain trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the production is 3425, the net import volume is 360, the apparent consumption is 3785, and the actual consumption is 3778.25 [10].