新单成交放缓，上游待发充足 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-03-03，尿素主力收盘1819元/吨（+2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1860 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1890元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：71 元/吨（-2）；河南基差：41元/吨（-2）；江苏基差：71元/吨（-2）；尿素生产利润325元/吨（+0），出口利润1209元/ 吨（-30）。 供应端：截至2026-03-03，企业产能利用率93.16%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.60 万吨（+14.56），港口样 本库存量为17.40 万吨（+0.80）。 尿素日报 | 2026-03-04 需求端：截至2026-03-03，复合肥产能利用率33.41%（+8.91%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.91%（-8.26%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.12日（-2.29）。 3月指导价较2月上调30元/吨，现货3月报价跟涨30元/吨，新单成交放缓，上游待发充足价格较为坚挺。供应端部 分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。部分淡储3月开始投放。需求端春节后返青肥 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 long - short spread trading on the low side [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - Some regions are affected by snow and rain, with logistics disrupted and the market trading atmosphere cooling down. Spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Manufacturers lower prices to attract orders and trading improves. Supply increases as some gas - based and technological - reform enterprises resume production in January. Demand from winter and spring fertilizers and off - season storage procurement are in progress. The resumption of compound fertilizer and melamine production boosts procurement. Both agricultural and industrial demand improve, leading to faster sales of urea enterprises and a reduction in factory and port inventories. International urea prices rise due to the Iranian situation, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas. Future attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 20, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1775 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1750 yuan/ton (0), 1750 yuan/ton (+0) in Shandong, and 1760 yuan/ton (+0) in Jiangsu. The basis in Shandong was - 25 yuan/ton (- 3), - 25 yuan/ton (- 3) in Henan, and - 15 yuan/ton (- 3) in Jiangsu [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 20, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.25% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of January 20, 2026, the urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of January 20, 2026, the export profit was 860 yuan/ton (+9) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 20, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.08% (+2.91%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.18% (+7.83%). The pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (- 0.35) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 20, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 98.61 million tons (- 3.61), and the inventory of port samples was 12.90 million tons (- 0.60) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas were lifted, leading to improved transactions. The futures market showed a volatile upward trend, which further boosted the spot purchasing sentiment, causing a slight increase in spot prices. However, the new orders slowed down with the price increase. The supply side saw a rise in supply as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January after the gas - based maintenance in the fourth quarter started in December. The demand side was in the process of off - season storage procurement. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market cooled down due to the raw material supply - guarantee policies, but the start - up rate rebounded after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted in some areas after New Year's Day, and the procurement improved. The start - up rate of melamine also rebounded with rigid demand procurement. The factory inventory of urea remained basically flat this week, while the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, and the lowest quotes were higher than the previous tender, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The report suggests continuous monitoring of export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][3][4][5][6][8][9][14][16] 2. Urea Production - It covers the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates are presented [27][28][30] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and large - particle urea CFR in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - particle urea in China, the differences between foreign and Chinese prices, and the urea export profit and disk export profit are included [32][36][39] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of orders to be delivered are shown [46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract are included [50][53][57] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Volatile - Inter - period trading: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when the spread is low - Inter - variety trading: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for the urea trading strategy, it suggests a unilateral strategy of a range - bound and bullish trend, a cross - period strategy of waiting and seeing, and no cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, with spot prices rising, but new orders may slow down. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. The export expectation at the end of the year has improved, which is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the domestic spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On December 1, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1675 yuan/ton (-2). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1680 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1690 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1680 yuan/ton (+20). The basis in Shandong was 15 yuan/ton (+22), in Henan was 5 yuan/ton (+22), and in Jiangsu was 5 yuan/ton (+22) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of December 1, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On December 1, 2025, the urea production profit was 160 yuan/ton (+20). The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 37.06% (+2.45%), and the operating rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 952 yuan/ton (-40). In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, which improves the year - end export expectation [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 1, 2025, the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00). The domestic high - inventory area is Inner Mongolia, and inventory in Inner Mongolia has decreased [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers reduce prices to attract orders. After the spot price breaks through the previous low, the trading volume improves. The spot price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving sentiment before the holiday. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. The medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand on a month - on - month basis [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [7][8][14] Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [19][22] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, on - disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][26] Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - sized urea in China, the difference between overseas and Chinese FOB prices, urea export profit, and on - disk export profit [29][32][35] Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract positions, and main contract trading volume [49][52][55]