尿素日报 | 2025-09-23 低价成交放量，关注节前收单情况 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-22，尿素主力收盘1660元/吨（-1）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1620 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1620元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1630元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-40 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：-40元/吨（-19）；江苏基差：-30元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润90元/吨（-20），出口利润1121 元/吨（-41）。 供应端：截至2025-09-22，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-22，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收单情绪。目前 部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货积极性不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit at high levels [3] Core View - The total inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 72,200 tons to 896,000 tons. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase due to good urea exports and increased port collection willingness. The production of urea enterprises remained high with few maintenance plans. Currently in the peak agricultural demand season, agricultural demand continued to advance, the start - up of compound fertilizers increased, and the demand for urea showed a phased increase. Industrial demand remained weak [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [1][7][8] 2. Urea Production - It includes figures of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - It includes figures of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [18][20] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - It includes figures of the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, and urea export profit and disk export profit [23][25][32] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - It includes figures of compound fertilizer start - up rate, melamine start - up rate, and urea enterprise advance order days [1][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, and futures warehouse receipts [2][44]