东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-01-15 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260114：扰动结束后，美国 Q1 通胀料将反弹——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 核心观点：2025 年 12 月美国总体 CPI 持平预期，核心 CPI 不及预期， 从分项看，后者主要来自二手车价格下跌、电信商价格战对相关商品和服 务价格的拖累、季节性因子，这三者更多是短期扰动，我们预计其给通胀 的负面影响难以持续，大类资产也因此部分回吐数据发布之时的宽货币 交易。向前看 26Q1，需要关注在财政与货币的短期宽松脉冲与季节性因 素影响下，美国增长与通胀数据超预期偏强的风险，这将进一步压缩近期 已有所回吐的 3/4 月降息预期。 固收金工 证券研究报告 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20260114：债市逆风中的生存法则：历史调整对当前的启 示 回溯 2016–2018 年债市，可以看到当时的利率变化顺序是政策收紧，先 推动短端利率显著上行，之后在经济韧性支撑下长端利率跟随上行，熊市 的主导力量是政策端。对比当下环境，情况有 ...

1月13日，工业和信息化部印发《推动工业互联网平台高质量发展行动方案(2026—2028年)》(以下简称 《行动方案》)，提出了四方面推动工业互联网平台发展的创新举措，概括为四个"行动"。其中，在平 台聚"数"提"智"行动中，强调"推动人工智能在工业领域深度应用"。 北京艾文智略投资管理有限公司首席投资官曹辙在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，人工智能是驱动 新一轮科技革命和产业变革的核心战略技术，工业互联网则是新一代信息通信技术与工业经济深度融合 形成的新型基础设施、应用模式和工业生态。二者深度融合、协同赋能，不仅能双向提速实现创新迭 代，还能为制造业数智化转型注入关键动力。 利好政策频出 《行动方案》提出，实施工业互联网与人工智能融合赋能行动，引导平台企业加快提升全员人工智能素 养与技能，推动人工智能技术在工业全链条渗透，在生产控制、风险识别等规则相对明确的场景推广判 别式人工智能应用，在工艺优化、方案设计等需求相对复杂的场景探索生成式人工智能实践。 在此之前，工业和信息化部办公厅于2025年12月份印发的《工业互联网和人工智能融合赋能行动方案》 明确提出，"到2028年，工业互联网与人工智能融合赋能水平显 ...

《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，1月6日，工信部办公厅刚刚印发《工业互联网和人工智能融合赋能行动 方案》（以下简称《行动方案》），时隔一周，工业互联网领域再迎政策利好。 重点培育行业型平台 1月13日，工信部发布《推动工业互联网平台高质量发展行动方案(2026~2028年)》（以下简称《方 案》）。 《方案》明确，到2028年，工业互联网平台高质量发展取得积极成效，"专业型+行业型+协作型"多层 次平台体系持续壮大，具有一定影响力的平台超450家；平台的要素资源连接能力大幅增强，重点平台 的数据增值、模型沉淀和人工智能开发应用能力显著提升，工业设备连接数突破1.2亿台（套）；平台 普及率达到55%以上，基本建成泛在互联、数智融合、深度协同、开源开放的新一代工业互联网平台生 态。 数据显示，目前，我国工业互联网应用实现41个工业大类全覆盖，重点工业互联网平台设备连接数超过 1亿台（套）。工信部部长李乐成在接受媒体采访时表示，2025年我国工业互联网核心产业规模预计超 1.6万亿元，带动工业增加值增长约2.5万亿元。 上述《行动方案》提出，到2028年，工业互联网与人工智能融合赋能水平显著提升。时隔一周，本次 《方案 ...

Core Insights - The release of the "Industrial Internet and Artificial Intelligence Integration Empowerment Action Plan" is expected to significantly benefit Dongtu Technology [1] Group 1: Policy Alignment - The action plan emphasizes accelerating the intelligent upgrade of industrial networks and promoting the transformation of key industries, which aligns with the company's core products such as TSN chips and AUTBUS bus chips [1] - The policy highlights the need to enhance the intelligence level of industrial internet platforms, which matches the company's self-developed industrial operating system and control systems, providing foundational technical support for the integration of industrial internet and artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Potential - The action plan sets clear development goals and quantitative indicators for 2026-2028, likely leading to a surge in market demand for industrial networks and control systems, thus providing a certain growth space for the company's core business [1] - The company has been dedicated to researching foundational technologies for the industrial internet and is focused on building an industrial intelligent neural network platform, positioning it well to benefit from the action plan [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 86 million, 152 million, and 202 million yuan respectively, and continues to hold a "buy" rating [1]

东吴证券研报指出，《工业互联网和人工智能融合赋能行动方案》发布，东土科技有望充分受益。此次 《行动方案》的核心要求与公司业务布局契合，具体体现在两大维度：其一，政策明确提出"加快工业 网络开放智能升级，推进重点行业开展新型工业网络改造"，要求构建"满足人工智能工业应用高通量、 低时延、高可靠、低抖动通信需求的新型工业网络"，这与公司TSN芯片、AUTBUS总线芯片等核心产 品的技术定位匹配；其二，政策强调"提高工业互联网平台智能化水平，强化要素连接、智能分析能 力""推动工业控制系统等智能化升级"，公司自主工业操作系统与工业控制体系恰好承接这一政策需 求，为工业互联网与人工智能的融合提供底层技术支撑。《行动方案》明确了2026-2028年的核心发展 目标与量化指标，有望直接带动工业网络、工业控制等核心赛道的市场需求爆发，为公司核心业务带来 确定性增长空间。公司长期致力于工业互联网底层根技术的研究，专注于构建工业智能神经网络平台技 术，此次《行动方案》的发布，预计公司有望充分受益。维持2025-2027年归母净利润预测为 0.86/1.52/2.02亿元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Industrial Internet Platforms (2026-2028)" aiming for significant advancements in industrial internet platforms by 2028 [1][2] Group 1: Action Plan Goals - By 2028, the plan aims to establish over 450 influential industrial internet platforms, enhance resource connectivity, and achieve a device connection count exceeding 120 million [2] - The platform penetration rate is targeted to reach over 55%, creating a new generation of industrial internet ecosystem characterized by ubiquitous connectivity and deep collaboration [2] Group 2: Development Measures - The plan emphasizes the development of specialized platforms for simulation design, equipment operation, and safety management, enhancing the supply of digital products and services [2] - It encourages the cultivation of industry-specific platforms to improve digital solutions and promote internal digital integration within enterprises [2] Group 3: Data and AI Integration - The action plan promotes the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into industrial internet platforms, focusing on enhancing AI literacy and skills across the workforce [4] - It supports the development of intelligent industrial agents capable of self-decision-making and execution in high-value industrial scenarios [4] Group 4: Application and Collaboration - The plan encourages collaboration between platform enterprises and industrial companies to build common data sets and explore new business models such as data brokerage [3] - It aims to enhance the application of AI in various industrial processes, including production control and risk identification [4] Group 5: Support for Enterprises - Large enterprises are encouraged to deepen platform applications to improve resource connectivity and collaboration across departments and regions [6] - Support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) includes digital transformation of equipment and access to cloud-based software and industrial applications [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The recent initiatives are seen as crucial for integrating the real economy with the digital economy, with a focus on data-driven decision-making and AI-enabled knowledge management [7] - Investment prospects include advancements in industrial network integration, increased intelligence of industrial internet platforms, and specialized services in industrial data and models [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy support for the industrial internet sector in China, highlighting the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Industrial Internet Platforms (2026-2028)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Development Goals - The MIIT aims for significant progress in the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms by 2028, with over 450 influential platforms and a resource connection capability enhancement [2]. - The core industry scale of China's industrial internet is expected to exceed 16 trillion yuan by 2025, contributing approximately 2.5 trillion yuan to industrial added value [1][2]. Group 2: Platform Development Strategies - The action plan emphasizes the development of specialized, industry-specific, and collaborative platforms to enhance digital product and service supply levels [2][3]. - It includes a classification and grading system for platforms, establishing a nurturing mechanism to improve platform capabilities [2]. Group 3: Data and AI Integration - The plan encourages collaboration between platform and industrial enterprises to build specialized data sets and explore new business models like data brokerage and hosting [3][4]. - It promotes the integration of artificial intelligence into industrial internet platforms, enhancing AI literacy and skills among employees [4][5]. Group 4: Application and Market Expansion - The article highlights the need for platforms to focus on high-value industrial scenarios, developing intelligent agents for automation and smart inspections [5][6]. - It encourages large enterprises to deepen platform applications and supports small and medium-sized enterprises in digital transformation through flexible resource utilization [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that the integration of industrial internet and AI will accelerate the digital transformation of manufacturing, presenting investment opportunities in industrial network integration and specialized services in industrial data and models [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms from 2026 to 2028, aiming to have over 450 influential platforms by 2028, with significant improvements in data value addition, model accumulation, and AI application capabilities [1] Group 1: Development Goals - By 2028, the number of influential industrial internet platforms is expected to exceed 450 [1] - The number of connected industrial devices is projected to surpass 120 million [1] Group 2: Current Status - Currently, there are over 340 influential industrial internet platforms, with connected devices exceeding 100 million [1] - The development of these platforms faces challenges such as insufficient differentiation, limited depth of application, and weak ecological synergy [1] Group 3: Action Measures - The action plan includes initiatives for platform cultivation, data intelligence enhancement, large-scale application, and ecological support [1] - A cultivation mechanism categorized into "basic, growth, leading, and ecological" levels will be established [1] - Support for platform enterprises will include promoting service models like "pay after use" and "subscription services" [1] - The plan encourages the establishment of open-source communities for industrial internet platforms [1] Group 4: Support Mechanisms - The Ministry emphasizes the need to improve work mechanisms, enhance public service levels, and create a favorable environment for high-quality platform development [2] - There will be encouragement for local innovations in funding, tax, and talent support, ensuring equal treatment for private and small enterprises [2]

智通财经APP获悉，1月13日，工信部发布《推动工业互联网平台高质量发展行动方案(2026—2028 年)》，其中提出，实施工业互联网与人工智能融合赋能行动，引导平台企业加快提升全员人工智能素 养与技能，推动人工智能技术在工业全链条渗透，在生产控制、风险识别等规则相对明确的场景推广判 别式人工智能应用，在工艺优化、方案设计等需求相对复杂的场景探索生成式人工智能实践。支持平台 企业聚焦重点行业高价值场景，加快培育流程自动化助手、智慧巡检数字人、具身智能装备等自决策、 自执行、自演进的工业场景智能体。支持平台企业提升工业智能应用水平，探索"平台+场景智能体"融 合架构，依托自主智能体互联协议，实现多智能体在复杂生产场景中的任务调度、信息共享与群体协 作。 原文如下： 工业和信息化部关于印发《推动工业互联网平台高质量发展行动方案(2026—2028年)》的通知 以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，牢牢锚定 实现新型工业化这一关键任务，以推动高质量发展为主题，以发展新质生产力为重点，以促进信息化和 工业化深度融合为主线，抢抓数智化变革机遇，加快新一代信息技术全方位全链条普 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from January 5th to January 9th, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 4.31%. Among broad-based ETFs, the median return of Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs was 10.15%, the highest. By sector, the median return of technology ETFs was 7.28%, the highest. By theme, the median return of military industry ETFs was 13.50%, the highest [1][12][16]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 803 million yuan, but the overall scale increased by 18.0114 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, CSI 500 ETF had the largest net subscription of 3.648 billion yuan; by sector, cyclical ETFs had the largest net subscription of 13.524 billion yuan; by hot theme, pharmaceutical ETFs had the largest net subscription of 892 million yuan [2][28][31]. - As of last Friday, among broad-based ETFs, ChiNext and SSE 50 ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; by sector, large financial and consumer ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; by sub - theme, wine and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 1000, Science and Technology Innovation Board, consumer, and pharmaceutical ETFs increased significantly [3][34][38]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.967 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.697 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.394 billion shares in the previous week to 2.42 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs in terms of average daily margin buying volume and short - selling volume, securities ETFs and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had relatively high average daily margin buying volumes, and SSE 50 ETFs and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [4][44][48]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine ranked top three in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs among fund companies. This week, 9 ETFs will be issued, including Penghua China Securities Consumer Electronics Theme ETF, Yin Hua S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low - Volatility Dividend ETF, etc. [5][52][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - Last week, the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 4.31%. The median returns of Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, CSI 1000, A500, ChiNext, SSE 50, and SSE 300 ETFs were 10.15%, 7.89%, 7.05%, 4.22%, 3.87%, 3.38%, and 2.78% respectively. The median returns of commodity, cross - border, monetary, and bond ETFs were 2.92%, 2.55%, 0.02%, and - 0.01% respectively [12]. - By sector, the median returns of technology, consumer, cyclical, and large financial sector ETFs among equity ETFs last week were 7.28%, 4.95%, 4.15%, and 1.82% respectively [16]. - By hot theme, the median returns of military industry, chip, and AI ETFs among equity ETFs were 13.50%, 11.17%, and 8.51% respectively, showing relatively strong performance; the median returns of bank, dividend, and securities ETFs were - 1.88%, 1.62%, and 1.91% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 398.11 billion yuan, 101.07 billion yuan, and 76.46 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and monetary ETFs were relatively small, at 26.47 billion yuan and 16.21 billion yuan respectively [20]. - Among broad - based ETFs, SSE 300 and A500 ETFs had relatively large scales of 122.08 billion yuan and 29.96 billion yuan respectively, while the scales of Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and ChiNext ETFs were relatively small [20]. - By sector, as of last Friday, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 47.09 billion yuan, followed by cyclical sector ETFs with a scale of 24.83 billion yuan. The scales of large financial and consumer ETFs were relatively small [26]. - By hot theme, as of last Friday, the scales of chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs were the highest, at 16.17 billion yuan, 14.31 billion yuan, and 10.88 billion yuan respectively [26]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 803 million yuan, and the overall scale increased by 18.0114 billion yuan; monetary ETFs had a net redemption of 1.0539 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 1.0525 billion yuan [28]. - Among broad - based ETFs, CSI 500 ETF had the largest net subscription of 3.648 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 1.8996 billion yuan; A500 ETF had the largest net redemption of 1.3087 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 59.5 million yuan [28]. - By sector, last week, cyclical ETFs had the largest net subscription of 13.524 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 2.9669 billion yuan; technology ETFs had the largest net redemption of 763 million yuan, and its scale increased by 3.5292 billion yuan [31]. - By hot theme, last week, pharmaceutical ETFs had the largest net subscription of 892 million yuan, and its scale increased by 893.9 million yuan; AI ETFs had the largest net redemption of 538.9 million yuan, and its scale decreased by 9.2 million yuan [31]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the quantile levels of 89.27%, 90.68%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 66.50%, and 99.74% respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the quantile levels of 73.68%, 75.83%, 100.00%, 79.37%, 67.90%, and 99.74% respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios of Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs are at the quantile levels of 92.00% and 79.79% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 1000 and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs increased significantly [34][36]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the quantile levels of 87.54%, 29.87%, 37.87%, and 98.43% respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the quantile levels of 83.91%, 57.34%, 45.26%, and 96.04% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of consumer ETFs increased significantly [38]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings quantiles of military industry, photovoltaic, and chip ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 99.75%, and 98.60% respectively; the price - to - book quantiles of AI, robot, and dividend ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 98.93%, and 98.35% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of pharmaceutical ETFs increased significantly [39][42]. ETF Margin Trading - Overall, the short - selling volume of equity ETFs has maintained an upward trend in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.967 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.697 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.394 billion shares in the previous week to 2.42 billion shares [44]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, among the top 10 equity ETFs in terms of average daily margin buying volume, securities ETFs and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had relatively high average daily margin buying volumes [48]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, among the top 10 equity ETFs in terms of average daily short - selling volume, SSE 300 ETFs and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [50]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs; E Fund ranked second, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs; Huatai - Peregrine Fund ranked third, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [52]. - Last week, 2 new ETFs were established, namely Guangfa China Securities Industrial Software Theme ETF and ICBC ChiNext New Energy ETF. This week, 9 ETFs will be issued, including Penghua China Securities Consumer Electronics Theme ETF, Yin Hua S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low - Volatility Dividend ETF, etc. [55].