Report Investment Ratings by Industry - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to sell out - of - the - money calls [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests holding short positions moderately or staying on the sidelines when prices are high; aluminum advises increased observation; nickel recommends waiting and seeing; tin is for range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is in a range - bound oscillation [1][14][17][18][20][21][22][23] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with oscillations; soda ash suggests shorting at high prices; rubber recommends buying on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading [1][25][27][28][31][32][33][35] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with oscillations; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][37][39][40] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 sideways; eggs are in a range - bound oscillation; corn is expected to trade sideways in the short term; for soybean meal, be cautious of chasing long on contract 05 due to capital disturbances; for oils and fats, suggest rolling long positions and gradually reducing previous long positions [1][42][43][44][45][46][48] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors, such as the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, have a significant impact on the futures market, affecting inflation expectations, interest rate expectations, and commodity supply and demand [5][14][15][17][21][22][25][27][28][31][33][42][47][48][50][51][52] - The domestic economic situation, including factors like social financing, credit data, and industrial demand, also influences the performance of various futures varieties [6][10][25][32][34][37][42][43][44][45][47] - Supply and demand fundamentals are key factors determining the price trends of different futures. For example, factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand play important roles in the price movements of commodities [9][10][11][12][14][15][17][19][20][24][25][27][28][31][32][33][34][35][37][39][40][42][43][44][45][47][48][49][50][51] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. With factors such as central banks' policies and geopolitical situations, the market may trade sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. Short - term trends depend on bond allocation strength, and medium - term trends are affected by inflation and economic recovery expectations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It has been weak and stable since the Spring Festival. With slow demand recovery in the terminal steel market, it is suitable for short - term trading [9] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. With the peak of steel inventory passing, the focus is on demand and the strength of raw materials [10] - **Glass**: It is expected to trade sideways at high levels. After downstream replenishment, there are opportunities to sell out - of - the - money calls [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level oscillation. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect the price. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately or stay on the sidelines at high prices [14][15][16] - **Aluminum**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The impact of the Middle East situation is two - sided. It is advisable to strengthen observation [17] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade sideways. Although the supply of nickel ore is tight, the weak demand and inventory accumulation limit the upward drive. It is recommended to wait and see [18][19] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade sideways. With tight supply and stable demand, it is suitable for range trading [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. Geopolitical factors and economic data affect inflation and interest rate expectations, and the medium - term price centers are rising [21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. With both supply and demand increasing, attention should be paid to supply disruptions [23][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities in the short term due to factors such as export tax rebates [25][26] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. With support from demand and potential supply disruptions, it may have a strong rebound, but be cautious of chasing highs [27] - **Styrene**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Supported by cost and export, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be bullish with oscillations. Supported by cost and improving supply - demand, attention should be paid to relevant factors such as demand and oil prices [30] - **Rubber**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Affected by cost and demand, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [31] - **Urea**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. With sufficient supply and increasing demand, it may trade strongly within a range [32] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Affected by supply disruptions and demand, it is suitable for range trading [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short at high prices. With high supply and inventory pressure, the price may continue to be under pressure [35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to be bullish with oscillations. Affected by global supply - demand and domestic consumption, the price may rise [37][38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: They are expected to trade sideways. The apple market has a polarized trading situation, and the jujube market has slow post - holiday sales [39][40] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is in a bottom - grinding phase, and in the long term, it may rebound. For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it sideways [42] - **Eggs**: They are in a range - bound oscillation. With improving demand and slightly easing supply pressure, the short - term price may be strong within a range [43][44] - **Corn**: It is expected to trade sideways in the short term. Affected by supply and demand factors, it is recommended to be cautious of hedging on rebounds [45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a low - level oscillation. Affected by factors such as international trade and supply - demand, be cautious of chasing long on contract 05 [46][47] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a high - level oscillation. Different varieties have different performance. It is recommended to roll long positions and gradually reduce previous long positions [48][52]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a structural divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.04% [1] - The total trading volume was over 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of more than 500 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a focus on individual stock performance rather than index gains [1] Key Sectors - The rare metals sector, including companies like Zhangyuan Tungsten, Yunnan Zhenyi, and Northern Rare Earth, has seen significant gains, driven by supply-demand imbalances and rising product prices [3][4] - Power stocks also performed well, with companies like Jiawei New Energy hitting the daily limit, supported by economic recovery expectations and low valuations [4] - The computing power leasing sector, including companies like Yuntian Lifei and Tuo Wei Information, surged due to a historic increase in AI model usage in China, surpassing North America [4] Declining Sectors - Sectors such as paper, PCB, CPO, and storage chips faced declines, particularly in companies reliant on overseas orders, which were affected by Nvidia's stock price drop following its earnings report [5][7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised not to chase high prices, especially in the rare metals sector that has recently hit historical highs, and to wait for pullbacks to identify strong fundamentals [6][8] - For traditional energy sectors like electricity and coal, the recommendation is to continue buying on dips due to their defensive attributes and high dividend yields [6] - Caution is advised in the computing hardware sector, with a focus on domestic, self-sufficient computing power applications rather than those dependent on foreign orders [7] - Emphasis on maintaining a balanced portfolio with a recommended position size of 50-70% to manage risks effectively in a structurally divergent market [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a significant recovery in 2026, with a focus on cyclical sectors driven by strong economic recovery expectations [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The total market capitalization of A-shares is projected to reach 100 trillion yuan by 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4,000 points, marking a nearly ten-year high [1] - The cyclical sector is highlighted as a key area for investment opportunities, with a three-phase market cycle: recovery expectations, performance improvement, and market peak [1][3] - Current market conditions indicate that the cyclical stocks are in the first phase, with non-ferrous metals likely entering the second phase [1][6] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to show strong performance due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI and infrastructure [5][6] - The supply side for copper is facing a rigid shortage due to insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades, while demand is expected to rise significantly [6] - Aluminum production is also constrained by domestic capacity limits, leading to a tight supply situation [6] Group 3: Investment Logic - The core investment logic for 2026 revolves around decreasing supply and increasing marginal demand, emphasizing the importance of supply-demand balance [9] - The cyclical market is characterized by a transition from passive to active inventory adjustments, with the current phase being a potential turning point for price increases [5][6] - The performance of precious metals like gold and silver is driven by financial attributes and global uncertainties, making them a safe haven in the current geopolitical climate [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a total market value of 100 trillion yuan by 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking 4,000 points, marking a nearly ten-year high. The focus is on identifying investment opportunities in various sectors for 2026 [2]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Cyclical Stocks - The current market emphasizes cyclical sectors, driven by strong expectations for economic recovery in 2026. The cyclical stock market typically progresses through three phases: recovery expectations, performance improvement, and market peak. Currently, the market is in the first phase, sensitive to marginal changes [4][6]. - The metals sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, is likely entering the second phase, while the chemical industry remains in the first phase. Despite recent price adjustments due to macro events, the long-term outlook for non-ferrous metals remains resilient [4][8]. Group 2: Investment Logic and Market Dynamics - The cyclical market's current focus is based on the recognition of past economic conditions and strong expectations for improvement in 2026. The demand-side policies are anticipated to emerge, particularly with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][7]. - The cyclical market is characterized by a supply-demand dynamic, where a reduction in supply coupled with increasing demand is expected to drive price increases. The current phase is seen as a preparatory stage for potential price hikes in cyclical products [7][9]. Group 3: Specific Sector Insights - Within the non-ferrous metals sector, copper and aluminum are showing strong performance due to supply constraints and increasing demand driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI and infrastructure [8][9]. - The supply of copper is expected to face a rigid shortfall over the next 3-5 years due to insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades. The demand for copper is projected to increase significantly, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure and grid upgrades [8][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals Outlook - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices reflects global uncertainties and geopolitical risks, positioning these metals as safe-haven assets. The long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact as long as the macro environment of uncertainty persists [10]. - The fluctuations in precious metals are influenced by market sentiments and the potential changes in monetary policy under new Federal Reserve leadership, which could impact liquidity and market dynamics [10].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the overall CPI in the US for December 2025 met expectations, while the core CPI fell short, primarily due to short-term disturbances from used car price declines, price wars among telecom companies, and seasonal factors, which are not expected to have a lasting negative impact on inflation [1][8] - Looking ahead to Q1 2026, there is a risk of stronger-than-expected growth and inflation data in the US due to short-term fiscal and monetary easing, which could further compress the previously anticipated rate cuts in March and April [1][9] Fixed Income - Historical analysis from 2016-2018 shows that during that period, the sequence of interest rate changes was driven by policy tightening, leading to significant increases in short-term rates, followed by long-term rates due to economic resilience [2][10] - In contrast, the current environment sees long-term rates rising first due to economic recovery expectations, while short-term rates remain relatively stable under a backdrop of loose monetary policy, indicating that a repeat of the 2017 bear market is not guaranteed [2][11] - The report suggests that the yield curve is expected to steepen, and strategies to leverage could be employed to enhance returns, as the yield curve inversion between money market funds and bond funds is anticipated to improve [2][11] Industry Insights 富临精工 (Fulin Precision) - The company plans to issue 230 million shares at a price of 13.62 yuan per share, raising 3.175 billion yuan, with Ningde Times acquiring a 12% stake, which will strengthen the company's position as a leader in iron-lithium batteries and facilitate comprehensive strategic cooperation [3][12] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 5.4 billion, 20 billion, and 28 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 37%, 273%, and 36% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][12] 容百科技 (Rongbai Technology) - The company anticipates a net profit of -1.9 to -1.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected recovery in Q4 leading to a net profit of 30 million yuan, and expects to achieve a sales volume of 12 million tons in 2026, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase [4][13] - The company has signed a cooperation agreement with Ningde, ensuring a minimum annual purchase of 60% of its sodium battery cathodes, which is expected to lead to profitability in the sodium battery segment [4][13] 潮宏基 (Chao Hong Ji) - The company forecasts a net profit of 4.36 to 5.33 billion yuan for 2025, with significant growth driven by strategic focus and channel expansion, including a net increase of 163 stores in 2025 [6][14] - The brand's strategy of targeting young consumers with culturally relevant products has led to a strong market response, with a projected net profit of 6.5 billion yuan after excluding impairments [6][14] 东土科技 (Dongtu Technology) - The release of the "Industrial Internet and Artificial Intelligence Integration Empowerment Action Plan" is expected to benefit the company, which focuses on foundational technologies for industrial internet and aims to enhance its market position through policy alignment [7][15] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 0.86 billion, 1.52 billion, and 2.02 billion yuan, with a "buy" rating [7][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bond market situation cannot simply be compared to the 2017 bear market as the interest rate change sequence is different. Currently, long - term interest rates rise first due to economic recovery expectations while short - term interest rates remain stable under the central bank's liquidity - maintaining policy [36]. - Systemic bear markets usually require the combination of rising short - term interest rates and tightened liquidity. Expectations alone can only lead to a phased rise in long - term interest rates but are insufficient to trigger a full - scale bear market [37]. - Given the current low short - term interest rates and the need for economic recovery, the yield inversion between money market funds and bond funds will improve. A steeper bond yield curve allows for leveraging strategies to obtain returns [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Historical Review: Structural Anomalies from 2016 - 2018 1.1 Yield Trends - From 2016Q4, bond fund yields slowed significantly, and were outperformed by money market funds in many quarters. For example, in 2016Q4, the quarterly return of money market funds was 2.62%, while short - term pure bond funds had - 0.66% and medium - long - term pure bond funds had - 1.29%. Bond funds faced high capital costs and a flattened yield curve, resulting in large net value drawdowns [10]. 1.2 Key Policies and Major Events during the Period - In December 2016, the central bank included off - balance - sheet wealth management in the MPA's broad credit indicator, tightening non - bank institutions' funding sources. In March 2017, the CBRC launched the "Three Threes and Four Tens" special governance, shrinking bank inter - bank business and intensifying liquidity stratification. From 2016 - 2018, the central bank raised MLF and OMO rates multiple times, increasing financial institutions' capital costs. In April 2018, the asset management new regulations were officially implemented, promoting the institutionalization of de - leveraging [13]. 2. Cause Analysis 2.1 Policy Aspect: Central Bank's Open - Market Operation Interest Rate Adjustment - From 2016 - 2018, the central bank raised OMO and MLF rates, achieving a de facto interest rate hike. The 1 - year MLF rate rose from 3% in February 2016 to 3.3% in April 2018, indicating a tightening policy [16]. 2.2 Funding Aspect: Intensified Liquidity Stratification - Financial de - leveraging policies restricted inter - bank business, leading to severe liquidity stratification in the inter - bank market. The spread between R007 and DR007 widened from less than 20bp in the first three quarters of 2016 to a maximum of 71bp in March 2017, eroding bond funds' leverage arbitrage space [17][19]. 2.3 Fundamental Aspect: Strong Growth Supported Policy Implementation - In 2017, financial de - leveraging was an active policy choice during a period of strong economic fundamentals. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, providing confidence for de - leveraging. The "high PPI, low CPI" inflation structure in 2017 created a good policy window [20][23]. 3. Relationship between Bond Yield Curve Shape and Bond Fund Yields - In 2017, the bond yield curve showed a two - stage V - shaped trend. From the end of 2016 to June 2017, it was bear - flattening due to tight funding. From July to December 2017, it was bear - deepening as strong economic fundamentals drove long - term interest rates up [25]. - The monthly returns of short - term and medium - long - term pure bond funds reflected the "first flat, then steep" change of the yield curve. From the end of 2016 to June 2017, short - term pure bond funds had lower returns, while from July to December 2017, medium - long - term pure bond funds suffered more capital losses [28]. - Bond funds' leverage ratios first decreased and then increased. In the first half of 2017, most funds reduced leverage. In the second half, short - term pure bond funds actively increased leverage as the yield curve steepened [30][32]. 4. How Did the Structural Anomaly Recover? 4.1 Policy Turnaround and Decline in Short - Term Interest Rates - In the second half of 2018, the policy shifted from de - leveraging to stabilizing growth. The central bank implemented multiple rounds of reserve requirement ratio cuts from 2018 to early 2019, releasing long - term low - cost liquidity and lowering short - term interest rates [33]. 4.2 Changes in Bond Yield Curve Shape - After the easing policy, short - term interest rates dropped rapidly, while long - term interest rates declined more slowly. The yield curve changed from bear - flat to bull - steep, reopening profit opportunities for bond funds' carry and duration strategies [34]. 5. Implications for the Current Market - The current situation is different from 2016 - 2018. The current long - term interest rate rise is driven by economic recovery expectations, and short - term interest rates are stable. The yield inversion between money and bond funds will improve, and leveraging strategies can be used [36][37].

Group 1 - Copper prices reached historical highs, with London copper up 0.4% at $11,925 per ton and Shanghai copper closing at 94,320 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.73% [1] - Copper is referred to as "Dr. Copper" due to its role as a leading indicator for global manufacturing and economic growth, reflecting the activity level of the real economy [1] - Historical data shows that copper prices often lead GDP and PMI indicators by 6-12 months, making it a reliable predictor of economic turning points [1] Group 2 - Ongoing supply shortages are supporting copper prices, with mining giant Glencore lowering its 2026 copper production forecast, highlighting a tight supply situation in the short to medium term [2] - The Chilean state-owned copper company has raised COMEX-LME copper premium quotes, causing a shift of global copper inventories towards the U.S., with COMEX inventories reaching a historical high of 450,000 tons, exacerbating shortages in non-U.S. regions [2] - The recent performance of the colored ETF (159980.SZ) shows a record scale of 3.682 billion yuan and 1.909 billion shares, with significant net inflows totaling 858 million yuan over the past 18 days [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market showed a "V" - shaped trend under the influence of policy expectations and sentiment. The central economic work conference boosted the market's loose expectations, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted by the economic recovery expectation. The bond market is expected to have a short - term repair, and the mid - term trend depends on policy implementation [1][5]. - In November, various economic data improved marginally compared with the previous month. Low inflation leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market benefits from loose expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Discussion: Has the Ultra - Long Bond Repair Market Ended? 3.1.1 Weekly Review - This week, the bond market's trend was dominated by policy expectations, showing a rise - then - fall pattern. The 30 - year treasury bond yield declined initially but rebounded sharply on Friday. Institutional behaviors were diverse, and market sentiment fluctuated rapidly between optimism and caution [11]. - Yields of different - maturity bonds showed mixed changes. Compared with the previous week, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond active bond decreased slightly, while the 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield increased slightly [12]. 3.1.2 Trading Disk: Buying Power Rebounded under Policy Signal Stimulation - Driven by the loose policy expectations, institutional behaviors changed significantly. Large - scale banks increased their net purchases of interest - rate bonds, while rural commercial banks turned to net selling. Funds shifted from net selling to net buying, and wealth management products maintained a defensive stance [2][15]. 3.1.3 Impact of the Central Economic Work Conference on the Bond Market - The conference strengthened the loose expectations. The monetary policy may implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year. The fiscal policy is expected to be relatively stable, and the bond supply pressure may be less than this year, which supports the bond market [3][22]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a weak repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the market interest rate will be pushed down, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted [5][24]. 3.1.4 November Import and Export Data Rebounded Significantly Year - on - Year due to the Base Effect - In November, foreign trade data showed that exports turned positive, and the trade surplus rebounded significantly. Exports to the EU and emerging markets increased, while the decline in exports to the US expanded. The recovery of foreign trade is affected by multiple factors, and the future may show a pattern of multi - market support and moderate recovery [25][28]. 3.1.5 November CPI Year - on - Year Recovery Accelerated - In November, inflation data showed that CPI increased year - on - year, food CPI turned positive, and PPI decreased slightly year - on - year but stabilized month - on - month. The low - inflation environment leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market can benefit from loose expectations [29][34]. 3.1.6 Corporate Financing Demand Increased Marginally, while Household Financing Demand Remained Weak - In November, financial data showed that social financing increased significantly, and credit turned positive, but the structure was differentiated. Corporate medium - and long - term loans increased, while household loans remained weak. The future financial data may continue the trend of "total volume recovery and structural optimization" [35][37]. 3.1.7 Next Week and Future Outlook - Next week, there will be a large - scale OMO 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity, and the government bond net payment scale is not large. The inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity is over 1 trillion. The DR007 may rise slightly during the tax period, but overall, the funds are stable [38]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the bond market will benefit, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted. The strategy suggests short - term bargain - hunting for ultra - long bonds and medium - and long - term "dumbbell - shaped allocation" [5][40]. 3.2 Weekly Tracking of Interest - Rate Bond Data 3.2.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking - The data shows the central bank's open - market operations, including reverse repurchase, MLF, and other operations, as well as the trends of repurchase funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance and maturity [42]. 3.2.2 Weekly Bond Valuation Tracking - The report provides the absolute interest rate levels, historical quantiles, interest rate changes, variety spreads, and term spreads of different - type bonds in the current week and the previous week [57][61][62]. 3.2.3 After - Tax Yield Atlas of Bonds Invested by Funds and Banks - Relevant charts show the after - tax yields of major bond types invested by funds and banks on December 6, 2025 [71][74]. 3.2.4 Weekly Tracking of Institutional Behaviors - The data shows the trading scale of different institutional investors in different types of bonds in different weeks, reflecting the changes in institutional behaviors [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] - For treasury bond futures, in the short term, it is in a volatile state, and the valuation of interest - rate bonds has reached a reasonable level. In the medium to long term, with the upward risk preference and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On December 1st, the four major A - share stock indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.25%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.31%, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index rose 0.72%. Market trading volume was 1889.4 billion yuan, an increase of 291.7 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, non - ferrous metals (+2.85%), communications (+2.81%), and electronics (+1.58%) led the gains; agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.43%), environmental protection (-0.23%), and real estate (-0.06%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IF>IC>IH>IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3396, 184, and 1868 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 4 billion, - 4.4 billion, - 1.5 billion, and 1.9 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 5.2 billion, - 2 billion, + 6.5 billion, and + 0.7 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 171.28, 127.83, 35.49, and 14.08 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 17.57%, - 13.64%, - 5.87%, and - 3.56% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 10%, 10%, 19%, and 24% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On December 1st, most interest - rate bonds rose. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.03%, TF rose 0.1%, T rose 0.12%, and TL fell 0.08% [2] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contracts and corresponding CTD bonds are as follows: for the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of + 0bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.049, and an IRR of 1.62%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.1, and an IRR of 1.8%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 0.85bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.075, and an IRR of 1.71%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.078, and an IRR of 1.26% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank's currency injection was 107.6 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 338.7 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 231.1 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it is in a volatile state, and the valuation of interest - rate bonds has reached a reasonable level. In the medium to long term, with the upward risk preference and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month's imports and exports and social activity sentiment are better than the same period, while the infrastructure sentiment is worse than the same period [10]

Report Information - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [1] - Report Company: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. [1] - Report Type: Financial Futures Morning Report [1] Market Performance A-share Market - On November 28, the four major A-share stock indexes rose across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34%, closing at 3,888.6 points; the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.85%, closing at 12,984.08 points; the ChiNext Index up 0.7%, closing at 3,052.59 points; and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 1.25%, closing at 1,327.15 points [2]. - Market turnover was 1.5977 trillion yuan, a decrease of 125.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, steel (+1.59%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.59%), and commerce and retail (+1.46%) led the gains; banks (-0.83%), coal (-0.14%), and beauty care (+0.07%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of stocks rising/flat/falling were 4,122/139/1,187 respectively [2]. - In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 9.2 billion, - 2.4 billion, - 8 billion, and 1.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +17.3 billion, +8.1 billion, - 8.3 billion, and - 17.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. Interest Rate Bond Market - On November 28, interest rate bonds showed mixed performance. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.03%, T rose 0.03%, and TL rose 0.05% [3]. Futures Market Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 148.61, 113.55, 36.06, and 10.22 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 14.9%, - 11.87%, - 5.86%, and - 2.53% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 16%, 14%, 19%, and 26% respectively [3]. - Trading Strategy: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - Cash Bonds: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. The CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are as follows: for 2 - year, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, yield change is - 1.25bps, net basis is - 0.012, IRR is 1.51%; for 5 - year, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, yield change is + 0.75bps, net basis is - 0.041, IRR is 1.6%; for 10 - year, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, yield change is - 0.9bps, net basis is - 0.03, IRR is 1.57%; for 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, yield change is + 0bps, net basis is - 0.176, IRR is 1.93% [4]. - Funding Situation: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 301.3 billion yuan and withdrew 375 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 73.7 billion yuan [4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, it is volatile, and the valuation of interest rate bonds has reached a reasonable level; in the medium - to - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL on rallies [4]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month's imports and exports and social activity sentiment are better than the same period, while infrastructure sentiment is worse than the same period [12]