1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas Fed's policy shift may lead to global liquidity easing, opening up space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity - easing trades. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There is an expectation that the funds from existing growth - stabilizing policies will be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data slowed significantly from July to August, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved [6]. - After the policies at home and abroad are settled, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, global loose liquidity and fiscal leverage - driven economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 this year to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after the interest - rate rise, and they should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's policy shift, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected. The Fed's independence risk may increase the potential for future rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the US economic data before the next Fed meeting [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There are risks in infrastructure investment in Q4, but the annual GDP target can still be achieved. The probability of the implementation of existing funds and new policies in Q4 will increase if investment and exports continue to decline in September [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the medium - term, equities are expected to perform better than commodities and bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and bonds' allocation value increases. Gold is for long - term strategic investment [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" due to the attenuation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" with concerns about unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has passed, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Demand recovery is slow, and there are continuous policy disturbances. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have decreased, and port inventories have increased. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is stable. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot transactions are good, and the futures price has a slight correction. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand drivers are limited, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand expectations are pessimistic, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Futures and spot inventories have increased significantly, and mid - stream restocking is coming to an end. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory has been continuously transferred, and upstream inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and the copper price is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession risks [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to ore production recovery, electrolytic - aluminum production recovery, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand shortfalls [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc - ore supply recovery [7]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the lead price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical risks, Indonesian policies, and supply - chain issues [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and demand improvement in Wa State [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, suppressing the silicon price. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Fundamental drivers are weak, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, supply disturbances, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil/LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and there are geopolitical disturbances. The short - term judgment for crude oil is "oscillating and falling", and for LPG is "oscillating", with attention to OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is under pressure at the 3500 level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel - oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of an emotional rebound. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Market sentiment is affected by future inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device operations [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand balance has weakened. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more production cuts. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to downstream yarn - mill purchases and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is short - term replenishment, but long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - cut targets and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP oscillates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: There may be support at the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is falling. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [9]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are expectations of alumina production resumption, and the caustic - soda price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased month - on - month. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: There is pre - holiday restocking, and the futures price has rebounded from the lower end of the range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Farmers are more willing to sell, and the futures price has broken through the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: There is positive sentiment from data correction, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has adjusted downward in advance due to expectations of a new - crop supply increase. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the sugar price is looking for support. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is weak, and the pulp price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price is oscillating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: The futures price is fluctuating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [9].

Report Title - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed trends, with precious metals generally rising - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250923 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening up policy space for China's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential elasticity of future interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the actual transmission to the US fundamentals after the rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market is fully expecting a 25bps rate cut. The US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October should be monitored. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds from existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place more quickly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. In addition to seasonal factors, the increasing proportion of "debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and combined with the 5.3% growth rate in the first half of the year, the annual target of 5% can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [8]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. However, in the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and the economic recovery expected driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and the weak US dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. In addition, after the rise of domestic interest rates, the allocation value of bonds increases, and bonds should be allocated evenly with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, and interest rate cuts are the main logic in the fourth quarter, with the risk of premature trading of the recovery expectation [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed's decision will lead to global liquidity easing and create policy space for China. The market is dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the Fed's independence risk may affect future rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25bps rate cut. Monitor the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data. Historically, it takes 2 - 3 months for rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In Q3, China's economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. "Debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient Q4 infrastructure funds. Q3 and Q4 GDP growth rates are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [8]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, risk assets will be supported by global liquidity and fiscal leverage. Medium - term (Q4 to H1 next year): equities > commodities > bonds. Short - term in Q4: stock market volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals favored, weak US dollar continues but at a slower pace. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after interest rate rise, and should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, with interest rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery trading [8]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the attenuation of incremental funds [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the deterioration of options market liquidity [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The dovish expectations are driving the price up. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The return of peak - season demand has improved the fundamentals marginally. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has slightly increased, and inventory has remained stable overall. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [9]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and downstream restocking has begun. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has increased slightly, and the futures and spot prices have rebounded in tandem. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The decline in the peak - season futures market is limited, but there is still downward pressure in the medium - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The peak - season expectations support the futures market, but the supply - demand outlook is still pessimistic. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Supply disruptions are awaited, and demand has improved slightly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand has increased month - on - month, but supply is still growing. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Supply disruptions in copper mines have occurred, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [9]. - **Alumina**: The spot market has weakened, and inventory has accumulated. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends [9]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [9]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: The supply of secondary lead has decreased, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate upward. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures market has risen significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand expectations [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply has continued to increase, suppressing the upward space of the silicon price. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [11]. - **LPG**: The valuation has been restored, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is running below the 3500 pressure level. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have not had a significant impact, and the fuel oil futures price has weakened. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is following the weakening trend of crude oil. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Olefins and port inventory are dragging down the market, and there is still a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - energy factors and the dynamics of upstream and downstream devices [11]. - **Urea**: The price is under pressure along the cost line, and there is a risk of an over - reaction in sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the urea export window will be extended, quota adjustments, and the authenticity of the seventh Indian tender [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is greatly affected by the expected future inventory build - up, and the willingness to hold positions is low. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory trends, and device implementation [11]. - **PX**: The postponement of device maintenance and capacity expansion have weakened the supply - demand balance, and the high valuation is being corrected. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees have increased the willingness of enterprises to cut production and conduct maintenance. Although short - term supply - demand conditions have improved, the long - term oversupply situation cannot be reversed. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved marginally, but the improvement is limited, and high supply poses potential risks. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [11]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: There is short - term concentrated replenishment, but the medium - to - long - term demand rebound height is uncertain, and profits are fluctuating. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprises' production - cut targets and terminal demand [11]. - **Propylene**: The price difference between propylene and PP is oscillating in the range of 500 - 550. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [11]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and PVC is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expectation of alumina production resumption has increased, and caustic soda prices have rebounded. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [11]. Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level for oils and fats. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Downstream price - fixing for pre - holiday stocking has led to a rebound at the lower end of the trading range. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade frictions [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The support at 2150 is strong, and the short - term market may fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to demand, macro - factors, and weather [11]. - **Hogs**: Supply is sufficient, and prices are weak. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: The sentiment is bearish, and rubber prices have declined significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to weather in production areas, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The weakness of natural rubber has dragged down synthetic rubber. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - **Sugar**: Imports have increased month - on - month, and sugar prices have continued to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to imports [11]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious driving force for a breakthrough, and pulp is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [11]. - **Offset Paper**: The trading volume is low, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [11]. - **Logs**: The commodity market has adjusted, and logs are expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to shipping volume and shipment volume [11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The core recommended industries for September include Media, Computer, Real Estate, Brokerage, Non-ferrous Metals, Chemicals, and Consumer Services, covering growth, finance, cyclical, and consumer styles, with most being pro-cyclical sectors [1][4] - The real estate sector is highlighted for its potential due to policy shifts and favorable market conditions [2][8][15] Core Insights and Arguments - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is anticipated to boost resource prices and lead to a potential appreciation of the RMB, benefiting real estate, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [1][5] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase of 53% year-to-date, with strategic metals being a key investment theme, particularly rare earth magnets [1][6] - The chemical industry is at a historical low in capacity, and with the Fed's expected rate cuts, there is potential for a rebound in prices and demand [1][7] - The real estate policy shift is evident, with relaxed purchase restrictions in major cities and a stronger RMB reducing overseas debt pressure for companies, leading to a revaluation of the sector [1][8][15] - Gold is viewed as a valuable asset during the transition of old and new orders, with a projected price increase due to rising interest rate cut probabilities and weakening dollar credit [1][9][10] Additional Important Insights - The real estate sector is currently characterized by a clear policy bottom, expectations of increased liquidity, and low institutional holdings, indicating high potential for upward movement [2][15] - The performance of real estate companies varies significantly, with leading firms like China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou showing better-than-average sales performance [17][18] - The valuation recovery of real estate companies in Hong Kong is noted, with companies like China Resources Land and Jianfa International showing significant improvements, while A-share companies like China Merchants Shekou have yet to see similar recovery [19] - Current recommendations for real estate investments include China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Jianfa Co., and Xinda Real Estate, with each having unique strengths and low valuations [20][22] - The overall strategy is shifting from policy speculation to value investing, focusing on companies that can maintain competitive advantages and stable profits even in a contracting industry [21]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,386 after testing the overnight high near $3,400, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks [1] - The market is reacting to President Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence, which has increased gold's short-term appeal [1][3] - The U.S. dollar experienced fluctuations, reaching a three-week high of 98.72 before closing at approximately 98.17, impacting gold prices [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have shown mixed movements, with the two-year yield dropping to a four-month low of 3.625%, while the 30-year yield rose to 4.915%, indicating a steepening yield curve that suggests expectations of economic recovery [1][3] Market Sentiment - Political uncertainty has become a significant catalyst for gold prices, with Trump's actions leading to a spike in gold to a two-week high [3] - The market is closely monitoring the interaction between geopolitical events and economic data to identify potential market movements [3] - The Fed's independence is under unprecedented scrutiny, directly affecting confidence in the gold market [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, which supports gold's resilience [4] - New York Fed President Williams emphasized that any rate cut will depend on upcoming economic data, adding uncertainty to the Fed's stance [4] - The Fed's policy fluctuations are viewed as a "ticking time bomb" for the gold market, with Trump's interventions potentially amplifying signals for monetary easing [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices recorded a bullish close, continuing to challenge the $3,400 level, with short-term support identified around $3,360 and $3,345 [6] - The recent price action indicates a rebound from a low of $3,320, with ongoing attempts to break through the $3,400 resistance level [6] Trading Strategy - A short position is recommended below $3,400 with a stop loss at $3,407 and a target around $3,365 to $3,345 [7] - Aggressive traders may consider entering near $3,393 with similar stop loss and take profit levels [7]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term view of being bullish on the economy, suggesting that using stock indices as a long - term alternative can yield certain excess returns, and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. - For treasury bond futures, considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for medium - and long - term T and TL contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 1st, the four major A - share stock indices pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.24% to 2322.63 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased 1.06% to 1036.77 points. Market turnover was 1.6199 trillion yuan, a decrease of 342 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, environmental protection (+0.88%), media (+0.82%), and light manufacturing (+0.65%) led the gains, while petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.79%), national defense and military industry (-1.47%), and steel (-1.26%) led the losses. The strength order was IM>IC>IF>IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3305/203/1907 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -13.1 billion, -11.1 billion, 100 million, and 24.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -2.5 billion, +8.4 billion, +2.7 billion, and -8.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Annualized Basis Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 127.67, 109.2, 25.33, and - 0.27 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -13.29%, -12.21%, -4.34%, and 0.07% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 19%, 10%, 22%, and 46% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. Using stock indices as a long - term alternative can yield certain excess returns. Recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 1st, the yields of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.411, a decrease of 0.13 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.57, a decrease of 0.12 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.7, an increase of 3.59 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.001, an increase of 0.14 bps from the previous day [3]. - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.008, and an IRR of 1.49%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.002, and an IRR of 1.41%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220010.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.062, and an IRR of 0.93%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.178, and an IRR of 0.38% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 126 billion yuan and withdrew 789.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for medium - and long - term T and TL contracts [4]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent business climate of various sectors is similar to that of the same period [11]. - Based on the changes in the meso - level data of each module compared with the same period in the past five years (the month - on - month of year - on - year), scores are given according to the degree of change. Positive scores indicate an improvement in the business climate, negative scores indicate a weakening of the business climate, and a score of zero indicates little change in the business climate [14].

Group 1 - Silver market shows strong upward momentum, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% compared to gold's nearly 28% rise [1] - Current silver price is attempting to maintain above the critical level of $39 per ounce, following a prolonged supply shortage lasting 7 years [1] - Spot gold price has fallen below the important threshold of $3360.23 per ounce, while spot silver has shown a slight increase of 0.02% to $39.03 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates that the US composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July, with the services PMI significantly increasing to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic activity [2] - Strong PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates, while also boosting the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [2] - Upcoming US durable goods orders data is crucial as it may provide new insights into gold price trends, with strong data potentially reinforcing economic recovery expectations and further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 3 - Spot gold experienced fluctuations with a downward trend, while spot silver remains near a 14-year high, hovering around levels last seen in September 2011 [3] - Silver's recent price action is supported by a weak dollar, with a weekly increase of nearly 2.36%, despite a slight daily decline of 0.50% [3] - Silver continues to trade well above its 9-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages, maintaining a bullish technical structure [3]

Group 1 - The core logic behind the recent surge in commodity futures is attributed to the "economic recovery expectations + supply rigidity + liquidity premium" [3] - The main contracts for polysilicon and coking coal have shown remarkable performance, with polysilicon prices rising over 70% from just above 30,000 yuan/ton to over 50,000 yuan/ton in less than a month [1] - Other commodities such as industrial silicon, coke, glass, and soda ash have also experienced significant rebounds, with industrial silicon prices reaching over 10,000 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 50% increase from early June [1] Group 2 - The recent collective rise in commodity futures is driving an investment trend in related industries, fueled by supply-demand dynamics and policy guidance [4] - The central government's recent meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition, which is interpreted as potentially beneficial for related commodity prices [3] - A focus on sub-industries like pesticides and organic silicon is suggested due to the combination of seasonal demand and supply adjustments [3]

Group 1 - The recent surge in commodity futures prices has attracted widespread market attention, with polysilicon contracts reaching over 50,000 yuan/ton, marking a more than 70% increase from late June [1] - Coking coal contracts also showed strong performance, closing at over 1,100 yuan/ton, reflecting a rebound of over 50% from early June [1] - Other commodities such as industrial silicon and coke have also seen significant price increases, with industrial silicon surpassing 10,000 yuan/ton, a nearly 50% rise since early June [2] Group 2 - The central government's recent meeting emphasized addressing key challenges, including regulating low-price competition and promoting integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [2] - Analysts attribute the commodity price surge to a combination of economic recovery expectations, supply rigidity, and liquidity premiums, with both the US and China manufacturing PMIs returning to expansion territory [2] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by reduced capital expenditure and a resurgence in domestic demand [3] Group 3 - Companies with market capitalizations below 10 billion yuan and institutional ratings include those in the pig farming, coal, glass, and organic silicon sectors [3] - Yaxing Chemical, with a market cap of approximately 2.644 billion yuan, specializes in chlorinated polyethylene and other chemical products [4] - Dongrui Co., a modern agricultural enterprise, operates a full industry chain in pig farming, while Beibo Co. focuses on glass deep processing equipment [4]

Market Performance - Both Hong Kong and A-share markets showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.05% and nearing the 3550-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by nearly 1% and 1.19% respectively [1] - The total market turnover reached 10,310 billion yuan, an increase of 966 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Since the implementation of the equal tariff policy on April 8, the Shanghai Composite Index has gained over 14% as of July 11, marking a new high for the year [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector, particularly brokerage and banking stocks, attracted significant capital inflows [2] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 2%, while the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.9% and 1.83% respectively [1] - Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have both gained over 20%, with the Hang Seng Technology Index up over 19% [1] Brokerage Stocks - Brokerage stocks experienced a surge, with Zhongzhou Securities rising over 70% at one point, and closing up 64% [5][6] - Other notable gains included Xingzheng International up over 36% and Hengtou Securities up over 22% [6] - In the A-share market, Zhongyin Securities, Hatou Shares, and Zhongyuan Securities hit the daily limit, while Guosheng Jinkong rose over 7% [8] New Account Openings - In June 2025, the number of new A-share accounts reached 1.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 53%, with a total of 12.6 million new accounts opened in the first half of the year, up 32.79% year-on-year [8] IPO Activity - The IPO activity in the Hong Kong market saw a significant increase, with the scale reaching 1,067 billion HKD, a year-on-year growth of 689%, and the number of IPO projects rising by 43% [9] - Despite some internet brokerages and banks tightening account opening standards for mainland residents, the overall demand for account openings remains strong, driven by the "high profit" effect of Hong Kong IPOs [9] Banking Sector - Major banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, reached new historical highs [12] - The year-to-date gains for these four major banks are approximately 21%, 23%, 11%, and 18% respectively [12] - The strong performance of bank stocks is attributed to enhanced economic recovery expectations, the attractiveness of bank dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment, and sustained inflows of long-term capital [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant surge, driven by the financial sector's performance and positive market sentiment regarding economic recovery and financial reforms [2][3][5]. Market Performance - On June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.03% to 3455.97 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72% to 10393.72 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.11% to 2128.39 points, marking the largest single-day gain since January 14 [3]. - The total trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 1.64 trillion yuan, a rise of over 190 billion yuan compared to the previous day, reaching the highest daily trading volume since April 11 [3]. Sector Analysis - The financial sector saw a notable increase, with stocks such as Guosheng Financial Holdings and Tianfeng Securities hitting the daily limit, while the non-banking financial, defense, and computer sectors also performed well [5]. - Among the 31 primary industry sectors, most experienced gains, with transportation, oil and petrochemicals, and coal sectors declining slightly [3]. Institutional Outlook - Multiple domestic and international institutions have expressed optimism about the Chinese stock market, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, citing a potential influx of funds into the Chinese market due to its current low positioning in global asset allocation [6][8]. - Analysts noted that the current price-to-earnings ratio for the A-share market is 15.37, indicating room for upward valuation compared to international markets [6]. Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, which is expected to boost market sentiment and attract long-term capital inflows [5][6]. - The approval of Guotai Junan International's upgrade to provide virtual asset trading services is seen as a positive development for the financial sector [5]. Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the market may see positive developments in the second half of the year, driven by improved external uncertainties, stabilization of profit expectations, and advancements in technology sectors [7][8]. - The human-shaped robot sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, potentially becoming a significant industry following home appliances, mobile phones, and new energy sectors [8].