拉长时间看，有色ETF(159980)最新规模达36.82亿元，最新份额达19.09亿份，均创成立以来新高。从资 金净流入方面来看，有色ETF(159980)近18天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1.93亿元净流入，合 计"吸金"8.58亿元。 相关产品：大成有色ETF（159980.SZ），场外联接(A类：007910；C类：007911)。 3、当经济复苏预期升温，"铜博士"往往率先反应。经济复苏预期升温时，企业基于乐观判断提前补库 存，叠加资金提前布局，铜价会率先上涨，早于实体经济数据的实质性改善，成为把握经济复苏窗口期 的重要参考指标。 东方证券指出，库存供应紧缺持续支撑铜价，矿业巨头嘉能可下调26年铜矿产量预期，凸显中短期铜矿 供给紧张局面。智利国家铜业公司提升COMEX-LME铜溢价报价，导致全球铜库存向美地区转移， COMEX库存达45万吨历史高位，加剧非美地区短缺，供给短缺是支撑铜价上行的基本动力。 想一键捕捉全球经济脉动？有色ETF（159980.SZ）直接跟踪上证有色期货指数，底层资产配置的是上 海期货交易所的铜、铝、铅、锡、锌、镍等有色金属期货。铜价上行对指数具有显著的贡献效应，是布 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market showed a "V" - shaped trend under the influence of policy expectations and sentiment. The central economic work conference boosted the market's loose expectations, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted by the economic recovery expectation. The bond market is expected to have a short - term repair, and the mid - term trend depends on policy implementation [1][5]. - In November, various economic data improved marginally compared with the previous month. Low inflation leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market benefits from loose expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Discussion: Has the Ultra - Long Bond Repair Market Ended? 3.1.1 Weekly Review - This week, the bond market's trend was dominated by policy expectations, showing a rise - then - fall pattern. The 30 - year treasury bond yield declined initially but rebounded sharply on Friday. Institutional behaviors were diverse, and market sentiment fluctuated rapidly between optimism and caution [11]. - Yields of different - maturity bonds showed mixed changes. Compared with the previous week, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond active bond decreased slightly, while the 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield increased slightly [12]. 3.1.2 Trading Disk: Buying Power Rebounded under Policy Signal Stimulation - Driven by the loose policy expectations, institutional behaviors changed significantly. Large - scale banks increased their net purchases of interest - rate bonds, while rural commercial banks turned to net selling. Funds shifted from net selling to net buying, and wealth management products maintained a defensive stance [2][15]. 3.1.3 Impact of the Central Economic Work Conference on the Bond Market - The conference strengthened the loose expectations. The monetary policy may implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year. The fiscal policy is expected to be relatively stable, and the bond supply pressure may be less than this year, which supports the bond market [3][22]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a weak repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the market interest rate will be pushed down, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted [5][24]. 3.1.4 November Import and Export Data Rebounded Significantly Year - on - Year due to the Base Effect - In November, foreign trade data showed that exports turned positive, and the trade surplus rebounded significantly. Exports to the EU and emerging markets increased, while the decline in exports to the US expanded. The recovery of foreign trade is affected by multiple factors, and the future may show a pattern of multi - market support and moderate recovery [25][28]. 3.1.5 November CPI Year - on - Year Recovery Accelerated - In November, inflation data showed that CPI increased year - on - year, food CPI turned positive, and PPI decreased slightly year - on - year but stabilized month - on - month. The low - inflation environment leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market can benefit from loose expectations [29][34]. 3.1.6 Corporate Financing Demand Increased Marginally, while Household Financing Demand Remained Weak - In November, financial data showed that social financing increased significantly, and credit turned positive, but the structure was differentiated. Corporate medium - and long - term loans increased, while household loans remained weak. The future financial data may continue the trend of "total volume recovery and structural optimization" [35][37]. 3.1.7 Next Week and Future Outlook - Next week, there will be a large - scale OMO 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity, and the government bond net payment scale is not large. The inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity is over 1 trillion. The DR007 may rise slightly during the tax period, but overall, the funds are stable [38]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the bond market will benefit, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted. The strategy suggests short - term bargain - hunting for ultra - long bonds and medium - and long - term "dumbbell - shaped allocation" [5][40]. 3.2 Weekly Tracking of Interest - Rate Bond Data 3.2.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking - The data shows the central bank's open - market operations, including reverse repurchase, MLF, and other operations, as well as the trends of repurchase funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance and maturity [42]. 3.2.2 Weekly Bond Valuation Tracking - The report provides the absolute interest rate levels, historical quantiles, interest rate changes, variety spreads, and term spreads of different - type bonds in the current week and the previous week [57][61][62]. 3.2.3 After - Tax Yield Atlas of Bonds Invested by Funds and Banks - Relevant charts show the after - tax yields of major bond types invested by funds and banks on December 6, 2025 [71][74]. 3.2.4 Weekly Tracking of Institutional Behaviors - The data shows the trading scale of different institutional investors in different types of bonds in different weeks, reflecting the changes in institutional behaviors [76].

金融研究 2025年12月2日 星期二 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：12 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.65%，报收 点；深成 1 3914.01 | | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 1.25%，报收 13146.72 点；创业板指上涨 1.31%，报收 3092.5 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.72%， | | | 报收 1336.76 点。市场成交 18,894 亿元，较前日增加 2,917 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+2.85%)， | | | 通信(+2.81%)，电子(+1.58%)涨幅居前；农林牧渔(-0.43%)，环保(-0.23%)，房地产(-0.06%)跌幅居 | | | 前。从市场强弱看，IF>IC>IH>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,396/184/1,868。沪深两市，机构、主力、 | | 股指期货 | 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 40、-44、-15、19 亿元，分别变动-52、-20、+65、+7 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 171.28、127.83、35.49 与 14.08 点， ...

金融研究 2025年12月1日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 28 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.34%，报收 3888.6 点；深成 指上涨 0.85%，报收 12984.08 点；创业板指上涨 0.7%，报收 3052.59 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.25%， 报收 1327.15 点。市场成交 15,977 亿元，较前日减少 1,254 亿元。行业板块方面，钢铁(+1.59%)， 农林牧渔(+1.59%)，商贸零售(+1.46%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.83%)，煤炭(-0.14%)，美容护理(+0.07%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,122/139/1,187。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 92、-24、-80、12 亿元，分别变动+173、+81、-83、-171 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 148.61、113.55、36.06 与 10.22 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-14.9%、-11.87%、-5.86%与-2.53%，三年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of value stocks, with the Guozheng Value 100 Index rising by 1.3% and over 10% since October, while the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index increased by 1.1%, achieving four consecutive days of gains [1] - The recent rise in value stocks is attributed not only to a "high-cut-low" market trend but also to expectations of economic recovery and the resonance of dividend premiums [1] - The current non-manufacturing PMI in China has crossed the threshold, indicating potential benefits for traditional value sectors such as home appliances and banking due to recovering demand [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Value 100 Index employs a three-dimensional screening system based on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low price-to-earnings ratio" to select value stocks, demonstrating stable historical performance [1] - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index selects assets based on free cash flow rates, focusing on cash-rich value assets, with the top three weighted industries being non-ferrous metals, automotive, and oil and petrochemicals [1] - The Value ETF (159263) and the E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) track the aforementioned indices, providing investors with convenient tools to invest in undervalued quality assets and capitalize on style-switching opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The value style continues to show strong performance, with the Guozheng Value 100 Index rising by 1.3% and over 10% since October, driven by economic recovery expectations and dividend premiums [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Guozheng Value 100 Index has achieved a four-day consecutive increase, while the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index rose by 1.1% [1] - The value ETF (159263) has seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, with an additional net subscription of 35 million units today [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The recent rise in value style is attributed to economic recovery expectations rather than merely a "high to low" market trend [1] - The current non-manufacturing PMI in China has crossed the threshold, indicating potential benefits for traditional value sectors such as home appliances and banking due to demand recovery [1] Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The value index is characterized by high dividends, low valuations, and strong risk resistance, enhancing its allocation value [1] - The Guozheng Value 100 Index employs a three-dimensional screening system focusing on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low price-to-earnings ratio" to select value stocks, demonstrating stable historical performance [1] Group 4: Sector Focus - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index selects based on free cash flow rates, favoring cash-rich value assets, with the top three weighted industries being non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and oil & petrochemicals [1] Group 5: Investment Tools - The value ETF (159263) and the E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) track the aforementioned indices, providing investors with convenient tools to invest in undervalued quality assets and capitalize on style switching opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of consumer stocks, particularly Luzhou Laojiao, which rose over 8%, contributing to a 1.08% increase in the value ETF (159263) and a cumulative gain of over 10% in October, outperforming the CSI Dividend Index by approximately 4% [1] - The Ministry of Finance released a report on November 7, indicating that it will continue to implement measures to boost consumption, which is a positive signal for the market [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1] Group 2 - The current market trend is attributed to a combination of economic recovery expectations and dividend premium, rather than merely a "high cut low" market [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI in China has crossed the threshold, benefiting traditional value sectors such as home appliances and banking due to recovering demand [1] - Amid global volatility, concerns over "paper profits" have increased, leading to a preference for value stocks characterized by high dividends and low valuations, which enhance risk resilience [1] Group 3 - The Guozheng Value 100 Index, as a benchmark for value stocks, employs a selection system based on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low PE," achieving an annualized return of over 17.5% since 2013, with a current dividend yield of 4.9%, compared to 4.3% for the CSI Dividend Index [1] - There has been a continuous net inflow of funds into value ETFs, with a net inflow of 24.2 million yuan over the past 20 days, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Value ETFs (159263, including connection A/C: 025497 / 025498) serve as a core tool for investors to allocate "high dividend + low valuation" assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in consumer stocks, particularly Luzhou Laojiao, has led to a significant increase in the value ETF (159263), which has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index by approximately 4% since October, indicating a strong market response to positive economic signals and consumption policies [1] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Finance released a report on November 7, indicating continued implementation of measures to boost consumption in the first half of 2025 [1] - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1] Market Dynamics - The current market rally is attributed to expectations of economic recovery and the resonance of dividend premiums, rather than merely a "high-cut low" market trend [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI in China has crossed the threshold, benefiting traditional value sectors such as home appliances and banking due to recovering demand [1] Investment Trends - The Value 100 Index, characterized by high dividends, low valuations, and strong cash flow, has shown an annualized return of over 17.5% since its inception in 2013, with a current dividend yield of 4.9%, compared to 4.3% for the CSI Dividend Index [1] - There has been a continuous net inflow into the value ETF, with a net inflow of 242 million yuan over the past 20 days [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the Treasury bond futures market this week shows an oscillating and relatively strong pattern, with differences still existing in the market's expectations of loose capital and economic recovery [5]. - Maintain the view that the medium - term general direction is oscillating and slightly bearish. After the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders, the sentiment in the equity market has declined, boosting the performance of the bond market. The Treasury bond futures may break away from the previous downward channel and shift to an oscillating channel, and it is still possible to actively participate in the structural market where long - term players seek capital gains [4][5]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts declined across the board this week. Short - term prices were relatively stagnant, while long - term prices fluctuated greatly. After the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders, the sentiment in the equity market declined, enhancing the performance of the bond market [5]. - The market's expectations of loose capital and economic recovery differ. Although the central bank's reverse repurchase rate is stable, the FR007 interest rate swap curve has declined across all maturities, indicating that the market's expectation of the sustainability of policy easing has increased [5]. - On October 27, 2025, Governor Pan stated at the Financial Street Forum Annual Conference that "the People's Bank of China will resume open - market Treasury bond trading operations", which is beneficial to the bond market [5]. - On October 28, Xinhua News Agency released the full text of "Suggestions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development", conveying important guidelines and policy signals. The Federal Reserve continued to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended balance - sheet reduction in December [5]. - The Treasury bond futures market shows the characteristics of a mild upward trend in the short - term and intensified fluctuations in the long - term. The yield curve continues to flatten. The short - term is driven by loose capital, while the long - term is affected by policy expectations and allocation needs [8]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific text content is provided for this section, only a figure titled "Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking" is given [10]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds decreased by 0.74%; foreign capital decreased by 2.47%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 2.74%. Weekly changes: Private funds increased by 3.4%; foreign capital increased by 4.8%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.02% [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas Fed's policy shift may lead to global liquidity easing, opening up space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity - easing trades. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There is an expectation that the funds from existing growth - stabilizing policies will be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data slowed significantly from July to August, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved [6]. - After the policies at home and abroad are settled, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, global loose liquidity and fiscal leverage - driven economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 this year to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after the interest - rate rise, and they should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's policy shift, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected. The Fed's independence risk may increase the potential for future rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the US economic data before the next Fed meeting [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There are risks in infrastructure investment in Q4, but the annual GDP target can still be achieved. The probability of the implementation of existing funds and new policies in Q4 will increase if investment and exports continue to decline in September [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the medium - term, equities are expected to perform better than commodities and bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and bonds' allocation value increases. Gold is for long - term strategic investment [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" due to the attenuation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" with concerns about unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has passed, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Demand recovery is slow, and there are continuous policy disturbances. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have decreased, and port inventories have increased. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is stable. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot transactions are good, and the futures price has a slight correction. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand drivers are limited, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand expectations are pessimistic, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Futures and spot inventories have increased significantly, and mid - stream restocking is coming to an end. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory has been continuously transferred, and upstream inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and the copper price is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession risks [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to ore production recovery, electrolytic - aluminum production recovery, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand shortfalls [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc - ore supply recovery [7]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the lead price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical risks, Indonesian policies, and supply - chain issues [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and demand improvement in Wa State [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, suppressing the silicon price. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Fundamental drivers are weak, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, supply disturbances, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil/LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and there are geopolitical disturbances. The short - term judgment for crude oil is "oscillating and falling", and for LPG is "oscillating", with attention to OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is under pressure at the 3500 level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel - oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of an emotional rebound. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Market sentiment is affected by future inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device operations [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand balance has weakened. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more production cuts. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to downstream yarn - mill purchases and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is short - term replenishment, but long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - cut targets and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP oscillates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: There may be support at the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is falling. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [9]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are expectations of alumina production resumption, and the caustic - soda price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased month - on - month. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: There is pre - holiday restocking, and the futures price has rebounded from the lower end of the range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Farmers are more willing to sell, and the futures price has broken through the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: There is positive sentiment from data correction, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has adjusted downward in advance due to expectations of a new - crop supply increase. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the sugar price is looking for support. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is weak, and the pulp price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price is oscillating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: The futures price is fluctuating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [9].