1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term view of being bullish on the economy, suggesting that using stock indices as a long - term alternative can yield certain excess returns, and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. - For treasury bond futures, considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for medium - and long - term T and TL contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 1st, the four major A - share stock indices pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.24% to 2322.63 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased 1.06% to 1036.77 points. Market turnover was 1.6199 trillion yuan, a decrease of 342 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, environmental protection (+0.88%), media (+0.82%), and light manufacturing (+0.65%) led the gains, while petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.79%), national defense and military industry (-1.47%), and steel (-1.26%) led the losses. The strength order was IM>IC>IF>IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3305/203/1907 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -13.1 billion, -11.1 billion, 100 million, and 24.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -2.5 billion, +8.4 billion, +2.7 billion, and -8.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Annualized Basis Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 127.67, 109.2, 25.33, and - 0.27 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -13.29%, -12.21%, -4.34%, and 0.07% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 19%, 10%, 22%, and 46% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. Using stock indices as a long - term alternative can yield certain excess returns. Recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 1st, the yields of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.411, a decrease of 0.13 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.57, a decrease of 0.12 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.7, an increase of 3.59 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.001, an increase of 0.14 bps from the previous day [3]. - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.008, and an IRR of 1.49%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.002, and an IRR of 1.41%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220010.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.062, and an IRR of 0.93%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.178, and an IRR of 0.38% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 126 billion yuan and withdrew 789.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for medium - and long - term T and TL contracts [4]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent business climate of various sectors is similar to that of the same period [11]. - Based on the changes in the meso - level data of each module compared with the same period in the past five years (the month - on - month of year - on - year), scores are given according to the degree of change. Positive scores indicate an improvement in the business climate, negative scores indicate a weakening of the business climate, and a score of zero indicates little change in the business climate [14].

Group 1 - Silver market shows strong upward momentum, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% compared to gold's nearly 28% rise [1] - Current silver price is attempting to maintain above the critical level of $39 per ounce, following a prolonged supply shortage lasting 7 years [1] - Spot gold price has fallen below the important threshold of $3360.23 per ounce, while spot silver has shown a slight increase of 0.02% to $39.03 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates that the US composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July, with the services PMI significantly increasing to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic activity [2] - Strong PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates, while also boosting the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [2] - Upcoming US durable goods orders data is crucial as it may provide new insights into gold price trends, with strong data potentially reinforcing economic recovery expectations and further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 3 - Spot gold experienced fluctuations with a downward trend, while spot silver remains near a 14-year high, hovering around levels last seen in September 2011 [3] - Silver's recent price action is supported by a weak dollar, with a weekly increase of nearly 2.36%, despite a slight daily decline of 0.50% [3] - Silver continues to trade well above its 9-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages, maintaining a bullish technical structure [3]

Group 1 - The core logic behind the recent surge in commodity futures is attributed to the "economic recovery expectations + supply rigidity + liquidity premium" [3] - The main contracts for polysilicon and coking coal have shown remarkable performance, with polysilicon prices rising over 70% from just above 30,000 yuan/ton to over 50,000 yuan/ton in less than a month [1] - Other commodities such as industrial silicon, coke, glass, and soda ash have also experienced significant rebounds, with industrial silicon prices reaching over 10,000 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 50% increase from early June [1] Group 2 - The recent collective rise in commodity futures is driving an investment trend in related industries, fueled by supply-demand dynamics and policy guidance [4] - The central government's recent meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition, which is interpreted as potentially beneficial for related commodity prices [3] - A focus on sub-industries like pesticides and organic silicon is suggested due to the combination of seasonal demand and supply adjustments [3]

Group 1 - The recent surge in commodity futures prices has attracted widespread market attention, with polysilicon contracts reaching over 50,000 yuan/ton, marking a more than 70% increase from late June [1] - Coking coal contracts also showed strong performance, closing at over 1,100 yuan/ton, reflecting a rebound of over 50% from early June [1] - Other commodities such as industrial silicon and coke have also seen significant price increases, with industrial silicon surpassing 10,000 yuan/ton, a nearly 50% rise since early June [2] Group 2 - The central government's recent meeting emphasized addressing key challenges, including regulating low-price competition and promoting integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [2] - Analysts attribute the commodity price surge to a combination of economic recovery expectations, supply rigidity, and liquidity premiums, with both the US and China manufacturing PMIs returning to expansion territory [2] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by reduced capital expenditure and a resurgence in domestic demand [3] Group 3 - Companies with market capitalizations below 10 billion yuan and institutional ratings include those in the pig farming, coal, glass, and organic silicon sectors [3] - Yaxing Chemical, with a market cap of approximately 2.644 billion yuan, specializes in chlorinated polyethylene and other chemical products [4] - Dongrui Co., a modern agricultural enterprise, operates a full industry chain in pig farming, while Beibo Co. focuses on glass deep processing equipment [4]

Market Performance - Both Hong Kong and A-share markets showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.05% and nearing the 3550-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by nearly 1% and 1.19% respectively [1] - The total market turnover reached 10,310 billion yuan, an increase of 966 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Since the implementation of the equal tariff policy on April 8, the Shanghai Composite Index has gained over 14% as of July 11, marking a new high for the year [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector, particularly brokerage and banking stocks, attracted significant capital inflows [2] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 2%, while the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.9% and 1.83% respectively [1] - Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have both gained over 20%, with the Hang Seng Technology Index up over 19% [1] Brokerage Stocks - Brokerage stocks experienced a surge, with Zhongzhou Securities rising over 70% at one point, and closing up 64% [5][6] - Other notable gains included Xingzheng International up over 36% and Hengtou Securities up over 22% [6] - In the A-share market, Zhongyin Securities, Hatou Shares, and Zhongyuan Securities hit the daily limit, while Guosheng Jinkong rose over 7% [8] New Account Openings - In June 2025, the number of new A-share accounts reached 1.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 53%, with a total of 12.6 million new accounts opened in the first half of the year, up 32.79% year-on-year [8] IPO Activity - The IPO activity in the Hong Kong market saw a significant increase, with the scale reaching 1,067 billion HKD, a year-on-year growth of 689%, and the number of IPO projects rising by 43% [9] - Despite some internet brokerages and banks tightening account opening standards for mainland residents, the overall demand for account openings remains strong, driven by the "high profit" effect of Hong Kong IPOs [9] Banking Sector - Major banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, reached new historical highs [12] - The year-to-date gains for these four major banks are approximately 21%, 23%, 11%, and 18% respectively [12] - The strong performance of bank stocks is attributed to enhanced economic recovery expectations, the attractiveness of bank dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment, and sustained inflows of long-term capital [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant surge, driven by the financial sector's performance and positive market sentiment regarding economic recovery and financial reforms [2][3][5]. Market Performance - On June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.03% to 3455.97 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72% to 10393.72 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.11% to 2128.39 points, marking the largest single-day gain since January 14 [3]. - The total trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 1.64 trillion yuan, a rise of over 190 billion yuan compared to the previous day, reaching the highest daily trading volume since April 11 [3]. Sector Analysis - The financial sector saw a notable increase, with stocks such as Guosheng Financial Holdings and Tianfeng Securities hitting the daily limit, while the non-banking financial, defense, and computer sectors also performed well [5]. - Among the 31 primary industry sectors, most experienced gains, with transportation, oil and petrochemicals, and coal sectors declining slightly [3]. Institutional Outlook - Multiple domestic and international institutions have expressed optimism about the Chinese stock market, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, citing a potential influx of funds into the Chinese market due to its current low positioning in global asset allocation [6][8]. - Analysts noted that the current price-to-earnings ratio for the A-share market is 15.37, indicating room for upward valuation compared to international markets [6]. Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, which is expected to boost market sentiment and attract long-term capital inflows [5][6]. - The approval of Guotai Junan International's upgrade to provide virtual asset trading services is seen as a positive development for the financial sector [5]. Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the market may see positive developments in the second half of the year, driven by improved external uncertainties, stabilization of profit expectations, and advancements in technology sectors [7][8]. - The human-shaped robot sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, potentially becoming a significant industry following home appliances, mobile phones, and new energy sectors [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The commodity market is under pressure from both liquidity and demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The main driving factor for large - scale assets has shifted from the positive news of the China - US - UK economic and trade consultations to the re - escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict. The risk appetite of large - scale assets has declined under the impact of oil prices. However, due to the weak US dollar, the impact on A - shares is relatively limited. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains intense, and although the risk of the war getting out of control is low, there is a certain probability of short - term stalemate and recurrence, so uncertainty is high. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 2.14%. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.36%, while the agricultural products and precious metals sectors rose by 1.08% and 0.59% respectively. The non - ferrous metals and black sectors fell by 1.09% and 0.35% respectively. In terms of specific varieties, the top - rising varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with increases of 13.69%, 12.14%, and 8.62% respectively. The top - falling varieties were soda ash, urea, and zinc, with decreases of 4.62%, 3.43%, and 2.55% respectively. The funds in the market increased, mainly flowing into the petrochemical and precious metals sectors [1][5]. Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Amid the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and the continuous geopolitical tension, the safe - haven sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly increased. As of June 16, 2025, gold futures have maintained high - level fluctuations, and funds have continuously flowed into safe - haven assets. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year and the marginal weakening of economic data such as non - farm payrolls, the macro - level continues to support the strong gold price. Silver has followed the upward trend under the overall boost of the precious metals sector, but its industrial demand recovery is not obvious, so its trend is a bit erratic [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: At the macro - level, as the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market still has disputes over the monetary policy path. However, the expectation of China's economic recovery continues to ferment, and overseas copper mine disturbances continue, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum has benefited from the slow resumption of electrolytic aluminum production and stable power supply, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. Zinc, nickel, etc. are restricted by the external market trends and have relatively limited elasticity. Although the geopolitical situation has not directly impacted the supply chain, the risk premium has begun to emerge [2]. - **Black Metals**: Under the dual effects of the recovery of steel production and the seasonal weakening of demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the market has emerged. Although the policy side has continuously released positive signals, including targeted easing in the real estate and manufacturing directions, the effectiveness remains to be verified. The prices of coking coal and coke have had a phased rebound, mainly driven by supply disruptions at the mine end and the expectation of production cuts due to coking enterprises' losses, but they are still in the stage of bottom - building through fluctuations [2]. - **Energy**: Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the market's safe - haven sentiment has significantly increased, driving the rapid rebound of international crude oil prices. Domestic crude oil futures have risen strongly, leading to a general sharp increase in varieties such as fuel oil and asphalt. The geopolitical disturbances on the supply side and the US production expectations are in a tug - of - war, and short - term oil price fluctuations may intensify. The overall market is concerned about the stance of OPEC and the Fed's policy trends [3]. - **Chemicals**: Driven by the soaring cost of crude oil prices, major chemical products such as PTA, plastics, and methanol have seen a concentrated upward movement. At the same time, the maintenance of some devices and the downstream restocking demand support the spot market, driving the futures prices to rebound. The technical oversold rebound of some varieties has also led to sentiment repair, and the short - term popularity of the overall sector has increased, but the disconnection between raw material transmission and terminal acceptance still needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Climate disturbances and the external market have jointly boosted the sentiment of some sectors, especially the strong performance of oils and meals. Rapeseed meal has risen due to the substitution relationship and the rigid demand from the feed end, and oils have steadily increased against the background of the recovery of the international market. Staple grains such as corn and rice have continued to fluctuate, and sugar has shown a relatively strong performance due to the production - sales game. The continuous support from the policy level for agriculture and external disturbance factors are intertwined, putting the overall sector in a relatively bullish atmosphere [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally performed well. For example, the net value of most gold - related ETFs increased, with the weekly yields of some gold ETFs reaching around 1.55%. The trading volume of many gold ETFs also increased significantly, such as the trading volume of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF increasing by 136.59%. The energy - chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Energy and Chemical Futures ETF) had a weekly yield of 3.09%. The soybean meal ETF had a weekly yield of 1.91%, the non - ferrous metals ETF decreased by 0.47%, and the silver fund had a weekly yield of 0.71%. The overall performance of commodity - related ETFs was positive, with the total scale and trading volume of commodity - related ETFs increasing [42].

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for public fund dividends continues to rise, with total dividends approaching 90 billion yuan this year, marking a 1.4 times increase compared to the same period last year and reaching a three-year high [1] - Equity funds have shown a significant increase in dividend distribution, with the total dividend amount being nearly seven times that of the same period last year [1] - The trend of increasing dividends has become a consensus among many fund companies, driven by public fund reforms that emphasize investor returns over scale [1] Group 2 - ETFs have emerged as a major contributor to equity fund dividends, accounting for 70% of the total dividend amount in this category this year, with 20 ETFs distributing dividends five times or more [2] - Many high-performing equity funds have also increased their dividend distributions, with over 80% of equity funds that have distributed dividends this year showing positive returns over the past year [2] - The combination of "regular dividends + excess return distribution" is expected to be adopted by more fund companies as market effectiveness improves and economic recovery expectations strengthen [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report (May 12 - May 16, 2025) [1] - Analyst: Du Shufang [1] - Futures Qualification Number: F0230469 [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0000690 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the release of the negative news of the easing of the China - US tariff war, the market returned to a volatile state. Considering the weak fundamentals and the unchanged easing direction of the central bank, the upward space for short - term interest rates may be limited. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [3]. Summary by Section This Week's Market Review - Treasury bond futures declined significantly this week, especially in the ultra - long end. At the beginning of the week, bond futures tumbled due to the China - US Geneva Joint Statement on tariff reduction, and then fluctuated slightly downward [3]. - The joint statement on May 12 led to an increase in market expectations for tariff risk mitigation and economic recovery, weakening the hedging demand for long - term treasury bonds and increasing the resistance to further decline in interest rates. However, the China - US trade relationship has not fully recovered, and there are still uncertainties [3]. - In April, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan but fell short of expectations. The increase was mainly driven by the accelerated issuance of government bonds, while the credit demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, but the M1 growth rate remained low, reflecting the increased risk aversion of residents and the capital hedging demand under capital market fluctuations [3]. - In April, the CPI year - on - year growth rate was - 0.1%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.1%. The PPI month - on - month decreased by 0.4%, mainly affected by imported factors such as the decline in international commodity prices [3]. - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year (previous value: 12.4%), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03%. The data release caused a slight fluctuation in the bond market. China's exports showed resilience as they did not decline under the influence of US tariff policies [3]. - Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the era of "lower interest rates for longer" may be over. The central bank's open - market operations achieved a net withdrawal of 47.51 billion yuan this week, and the short - term interest rates in the money market remained stable [3]. This Week's Important News Review - In April, the CPI month - on - month changed from a 0.4% decline to a 0.1% increase; year - on - year, it decreased by 0.1%. The core CPI month - on - month changed from flat to a 0.2% increase; year - on - year, it increased by 0.5%. The PPI month - on - month decreased by 0.4%, and the year - on - year decline widened by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% [5]. - From January to April 2025, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12% [5]. - In April 2025, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.0%); imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year (market expectation: - 6.0%). The trade surplus was 96.18 billion US dollars [5]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed is adjusting its policy framework to address the high - inflation challenges in the post - pandemic era, hinting that the era of "lower interest rates for longer" may be over [5]. Trend Review - The report presents historical data trends of PPI, PMI, CPI, and GDP, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13][15][17] Cash Bond Analysis - The report shows the historical trends of DR interest rates, inter - bank treasury bond yields, and treasury bond term spreads, but no specific analysis is provided [20][24] Basis Analysis - The report shows the historical trends of the CTD bond basis of T2406, TF2406, and TS2406, but no specific analysis is provided [25][26][28]