Group 1 - The 2025 Ninth China (Indonesia) Export Brand Exhibition and Jakarta International Industrial Exhibition opened on June 4, attracting over 1,000 enterprises from 20 provinces in China and countries like Indonesia and Japan, covering an exhibition area of 40,000 square meters [1][3] - The exhibition focuses on the new demands of Indonesia's industrialization 4.0 upgrade, featuring 15 major categories including new energy, automotive parts, agricultural machinery, plastic machinery and molds, packaging and printing machinery, and food processing and packaging machinery [3][4] - To enhance supply-demand matching, the organizing committee will hold multiple roadshow events in cities like Kendari, Makassar, and Bandung in the first half of 2025, promoting quality Chinese enterprises and products [3] Group 2 - The exhibition has upgraded its "intelligent" features by introducing the self-developed "AI Hui Exhibition" system and AI glasses, which provide AI-assisted behavior and customer profiling analysis, with a 30% application rate among exhibitors [4] - The exhibition serves as an international platform for Chinese industrial enterprises to showcase their strength and expand their market, while also building an important bridge for in-depth cooperation between China and Indonesia in industrial manufacturing, machinery, and intelligent manufacturing [4] - The event is organized by the Wenzhou Municipal Government, with support from various municipal commerce bureaus and international exhibition companies [4]

证券研究报告 宏观 "再平衡"中孕育新机遇 我们维持今年实际 GDP 增长 5%左右的判断不变，名义 GDP、尤其是名义 内需增长有望比去年小幅回升，主要受地产、租金及国内服务业价格降幅收 窄推动。2025 年 2-4 季度的总需求增长路径总体平稳，但内外需动能转换 加剧：内需增长有望逐季回升。而外需对总需求的实际贡献有序下降，但油 价大幅下跌可能推动贸易顺差扩张。价格指数层面，油价和食品价格形成拖 累，但中下游物价和利润率有望企稳、局部回升。 除了周期自身的规律外，我们对 2025 中国增长"达标"（5%）的预测也基 于对海内外政策"基准情形"的一些预判：① 美国对全球加征关税水平在 15%左右，对华加征关税在 30-40%之间；② 财政政策从此前实际偏紧的 立场转向温和宽松，全年中央+地方财政支出增长有望高于名义 GDP，广义 财政政策多措并举稳增长；③ 货币政策小幅宽松，进一步降准降息仍有空 间，但幅度较小；同时，结构性货币政策持续发力，市场流动性保持宽松。 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 03 日│中国内地 中期策略 中国 2025 年下半年宏观展望 1. 复盘 2025 以来宏观走势：惊喜、挑战与机 ...