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国证国际:工商业客户具区位优势 料天伦燃气一季度销气量增长符合预期
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 03:36
Group 1: Company Overview - Tianlun Gas (01600) has a significant growth potential in gas sales volume in Gansu, particularly in Baiyin and Jingyuan, due to abundant upstream gas sources [1] - The company's urban gas projects are primarily located in Henan, Jilin, Yunnan, Shandong, and Gansu, with industrial and commercial clients benefiting from geographical advantages and minimal impact from international trade tariff fluctuations [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - The company projects a retail gas sales volume growth of 4%-5% for the year, with a slight recovery in gross margin to 0.48-0.50 RMB per cubic meter, and an increase in value-added business revenue by 10-15% [2] - The company aims to add 200,000 to 220,000 new residential users in urban gas services [2] Group 3: Industry Context - From January to April, the national industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year, while Baiyin's industrial added value grew by 15.5%, driven by rapid growth in coal, chemical, non-ferrous, and electric power industries [1] - The apparent consumption of natural gas in the country decreased by 1.3% year-on-year from January to May, indicating a challenging industry growth environment [2] Group 4: Debt and Dividend Strategy - As of the end of 2024, the company is expected to have total liabilities of 9.648 billion RMB, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.6% and an average financing cost of 5.5% [2] - The company has secured a green loan of 125 million USD from the Asian Development Bank at an interest rate of approximately 3.8%, which will help optimize its debt structure and reduce interest expenses [2] - The dividend payout ratio is increasing, with a target core payout ratio of 35% for the year, and the current dividend yield is around 5% [2]