Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 13.40 [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in the engineering machinery sector, with a comprehensive business layout. It has improved the quality of its traditional earth-moving machinery while achieving rapid growth through emerging sectors like mining machinery and overseas expansion. The company has seen a steady increase in net profit margin over the past two years and a continuous improvement in operating cash flow [1][17] - The domestic demand for excavators is expected to recover, with a projected year-on-year growth rate exceeding 20% from January to August 2025. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this recovery due to its leading position in various engineering machinery segments [2][17] - The global demand for mining and infrastructure is strong, with significant growth opportunities for domestic brands in overseas markets. The company has established a comprehensive global development model, enhancing its market share [3][18] - The mining machinery sector has substantial room for domestic substitution, and the company is expected to leverage the trend towards new energy to achieve rapid growth. The global market for mining equipment is large, with significant opportunities for domestic brands to increase their market share [4][19] Summary by Sections Domestic Demand Recovery - The domestic excavator market is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase in sales expected in 2024. The company is likely to benefit from this new cycle of demand recovery, particularly in rural and new infrastructure projects [17][20] Export Opportunities - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas revenue, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62% from 2020 to 2024. The demand for engineering machinery in South America and Africa is robust, and the company is well-positioned to capture market share in these regions [18][21] Mining Machinery Growth - The global mining machinery market is expected to grow, with the company focusing on new energy and automation trends. The company has secured multiple contracts for new energy mining equipment, positioning itself for significant growth in this sector [4][19] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 7.9 billion in 2025, with a steady increase in revenue and profitability expected through 2027. The target price has been adjusted to RMB 13.40 based on improved valuation metrics [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The construction machinery industry in China is experiencing a recovery driven by domestic demand and stable export growth, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project expected to further boost equipment demand [1][2][3] Industry Summary - In July 2025, a total of 17,138 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, with domestic sales at 7,306 units (up 17.2%) and exports at 9,832 units (up 31.9%) [1] - From January to July 2025, 137,658 excavators were sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, with domestic sales of 72,943 units (up 22.3%) and exports of 64,715 units (up 13%) [1] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products increased to 80.8 hours in July, a month-on-month growth of 4.58%, despite a decrease in the monthly operating rate to 56.2% [1] Project Impact - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to generate over 200 billion yuan in equipment demand, with engineering machinery and other equipment needs exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] - The project will likely drive demand for large, electric, and intelligent construction machinery due to the unique high-altitude working conditions, enhancing product structure optimization and profitability for manufacturers [2] Policy and Market Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims for widespread application of digital technologies in the machinery industry by 2027, targeting a 50% maturity rate in intelligent manufacturing capabilities among enterprises [3] - Long-term prospects for construction machinery exports remain strong, particularly in regions along the Belt and Road Initiative, with Asia accounting for 43% of exports and significant growth in the Middle East market [3][4] Company Performance - Zoomlion achieved a revenue of 12.117 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.92%, with a net profit of 1.41 billion yuan, up 53.98% [6] - Sany International reported a revenue of 5.876 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 635 million yuan, up 23.2% [6]