证券研究报告·公司深度研究·工程机械 徐工机械（000425） 中国工程机械龙头，矿机成套打开第二增长 曲线 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 92,848 | 91,660 | 105,319 | 118,657 | 134,836 | | 同比（%） | (1.03) | (1.28) | 14.90 | 12.66 | 13.64 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,326 | 5,976 | 7,016 | 9,028 | 11,866 | | 同比（%） | 23.51 | 12.20 | 17.40 | 28.68 | 31.44 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.77 | 1.01 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 27.04 | 24.10 | 20.53 | 15.95 | 12.14 | [Table_Tag] [Tabl ...

格隆汇2月26日丨徐工机械(000425.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司主要从事土方机械、起重机械、桩工机 械、混凝土机械、路面机械、高空作业机械、矿业机械、环卫机械、农业机械、应急救援装备及其他工 程机械和核心零部件等研发、制造、销售和服务，已建立 "三电" 体系推动新能源产品升级，目前未涉 及数据中心用独立发电机组生产。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhonglian Heavy Industry's stock price has shown significant growth in early 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 15.42% and notable gains over various trading periods [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 9, Zhonglian Heavy Industry's stock price rose by 4.29% to 9.73 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.62 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.24%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 841.50 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 12.62% over the last five trading days, 9.70% over the last 20 days, and 19.39% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhonglian Heavy Industry reported a revenue of 371.56 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.20 billion CNY, which is a 24.89% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Zhonglian Heavy Industry was 236,400, a decrease of 9.85% from the previous period, with an average of 0 shares per shareholder [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 306.10 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 97.43 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, China Securities Finance Corporation is the sixth largest shareholder with 233 million shares, unchanged from the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited increased its holdings by 19.73 million shares to 202 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhonglian Heavy Industry's stock price has shown a positive trend in recent months, with a year-to-date increase of 9.73% and significant gains over various trading periods, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in the engineering machinery sector [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhonglian Heavy Industry reported a revenue of 37.156 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.920 billion yuan, marking a substantial increase of 24.89% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 30.610 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 9.743 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Zhonglian Heavy Industry was 236,400, which represents a decrease of 9.85% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person remained at 0 [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Securities Finance Corporation held 233 million shares, unchanged from the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited increased its holdings by approximately 19.734 million shares to 202 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.526 to 1.659 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 25% [4] - The company adheres to a new "Three Full Strategy" focusing on comprehensive solutions, digitalization, and globalization, which is expected to drive revenue and profit growth [5] - The company has increased its overseas investments, with international business accounting for approximately 47% of total revenue, and plans to establish over 10 new overseas subsidiaries in key markets by 2026 [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 11.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 23.2 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.69 [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 33.737 billion, 37.205 billion, and 40.599 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.22%, 10.28%, and 9.12% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.593 billion, 1.985 billion, and 2.426 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 20.01%, 24.63%, and 22.22% [8] - The corresponding PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.56, 11.68, and 9.56, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.526 to 1.659 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 25% [4] - The company adheres to a new "Three Full Strategy" focusing on comprehensive solutions, digitalization, and globalization, which is expected to drive revenue and profit growth [5] - The company has increased its overseas investments, with international business accounting for approximately 47% of total revenue, and plans to establish over 10 new overseas subsidiaries in key markets by 2026 [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 11.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 23.2 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.69 [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 33.737 billion, 37.205 billion, and 40.599 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.22%, 10.28%, and 9.12% respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.593 billion, 1.985 billion, and 2.426 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 20.01%, 24.63%, and 22.22% respectively [8] - The corresponding PE valuations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.56, 11.68, and 9.56, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8]

Group 1: Popular Industry Research - The most researched industries from January 26 to January 30, 2026, are electronics, machinery, basic chemicals, and pharmaceutical biology, with electronics and machinery receiving the highest attention in the past five days [10][12] - Over the past 30 days (December 31, 2025, to January 30, 2026), the most researched industries are machinery, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and basic chemicals, with machinery and computers having the most research institutions [13][14] Group 2: Popular Company Research - In the past five days, the companies with the most research occurrences and more than 10 institutional ratings are Jiemai Technology, Ice Wheel Environment, and Zhou Dazheng [17][19] - Over the past 30 days, the companies with the most research occurrences and more than 10 institutional ratings include Daikin Heavy Industry, Jiangsu Bank, and Naipu Mining Machinery [22][23] Group 3: Key Company Research Summary 1. **Shanghai Bank** - The focus of the research is on strategic planning and shareholder returns, with a new five-year development plan approved, emphasizing technology finance with a loan balance exceeding 187.05 billion [26] - The asset quality remains stable, with credit focus on key regions and retail ecosystems, and a commitment to maintain cash dividends of no less than 30% annually from 2025 to 2027 [26][27] 2. **Liugong** - The research highlights significant growth in core business, with domestic demand for earth-moving machinery rebounding and overseas sales of electric loaders doubling [29] - The company expects a profit increase of 15% to 25% for the year, despite short-term impairment impacts, and is advancing its overseas manufacturing layout [29][30] 3. **Jiemai Technology** - The focus is on the domestic substitution of electronic film materials and capacity expansion, with high-end release films achieving stable supply and certification from major domestic and international clients [31] - The Tianjin base is expected to start trial production in the first quarter of 2026, enhancing supply chain resilience [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zoomlion, has no business operations in Venezuela but is actively expanding its presence in South America through localized operations and product adaptation [1] Group 1: Business Expansion - The company is a leading engineering machinery enterprise in China and is enhancing its market influence in South America and Latin America [1] - It has established sales and service networks in major economies such as Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru, and Colombia, with Brazil being the strategic core market [1] Group 2: Local Operations and Product Adaptation - The company has set up a factory in Brazil to produce cranes, concrete machinery, and other equipment, serving the South American market [1] - It offers machinery tailored to local conditions, including cranes, earthmoving machinery, concrete machinery, mining machinery, and aerial work platforms [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to further expand its business in the region by increasing localization efforts, driving technological innovation, and integrating the supply chain [1]

Summary of Zhonglian Heavy Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhonglian Heavy Industry - **Industry**: Engineering Machinery Key Points Market Position and Growth Potential - Zhonglian Heavy Industry's overseas market share continues to rise, with overseas profit contribution reaching 60%-70%, a trend expected to persist [2][3] - The domestic market is in a replacement cycle, with excavator demand expected to recover by the end of 2025, leading to sustained growth in domestic engineering machinery demand over the next five years [2][3] - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing an upward cycle reversal, with the global market size projected to approach 2 trillion RMB by 2030 [2][6] Financial Performance - As of the 2025 mid-year report, Zhonglian's overseas revenue accounted for 56% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31%, higher than the domestic gross margin of 24% [2][5] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% in revenue and 22% in performance since its listing [4] Product Segmentation - Product revenue breakdown for 2025: - Cranes: 34% - Concrete machinery: 20% - Earth-moving machinery: 17% - Aerial work platforms: 10% - Agricultural machinery: 8% - Financial services: 10% [4] - Non-excavator segments (cranes and concrete machinery) account for over 50% of revenue, positioning the company to benefit from rising demand in these areas [2][3] Emerging Markets and Innovations - Zhonglian is actively expanding into agricultural machinery and mining machinery, with significant progress in humanoid robotics, which is expected to provide additional growth momentum [2][3][14][15] - The global agricultural machinery market is projected to reach approximately 1.5 trillion RMB by 2024, with a dual trend of rapid development in emerging markets and upgrades in mature markets [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to issue up to 6 billion HKD in convertible bonds to support its globalization strategy and R&D in robotics and new energy technologies [2][16] - Zhonglian's global strategy includes a localized direct sales model and a comprehensive local operation layout for R&D, manufacturing, and supply chain [12] Competitive Advantages - In the domestic market, Zhonglian maintains a leading position in non-excavator segments, with significant market shares in various crane products and concrete equipment [13] - The company has a strong focus on green and intelligent mining equipment, with a notable increase in sales of mining machinery exceeding 29% [14][11] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Zhonglian is considered a low-valuation, high-growth investment opportunity, with a projected compound growth rate of nearly 30% from 2025 to 2027 and a PE ratio of approximately 12 times [3] - The company is recommended as a key investment target for the upcoming year due to its robust growth potential across multiple sectors [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Zoomlion is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese engineering machinery sector, with growth potential driven by its diversified focus on engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, and mining machinery [1] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand, particularly in non-excavator segments, and is advancing its globalization strategy through overseas direct sales and localized production [1][11] - The company is also focusing on low-valuation humanoid robots, which are expected to contribute to future growth [1][11] Industry and Company Analysis Engineering Machinery Sector - The global engineering machinery market is projected to reach USD 213.5 billion in 2024 and USD 296.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2030 [2] - Domestic recovery in excavators is expected to drive demand for non-excavator machinery, supported by infrastructure and municipal needs [2][3] - The company has a significant market share in various segments, including nearly 50% in the 1000-ton and above crawler crane market [12][24] Agricultural Machinery - The global agricultural machinery market is expected to reach approximately RMB 1.5 trillion in 2024, with China contributing around RMB 300 billion [5] - Emerging markets and green technology are identified as key growth drivers for agricultural machinery [5][25] Mining Machinery - The global mining machinery market is projected to grow from USD 133.1 billion in 2025 to USD 229.2 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 6% [6] - The company is focusing on green, large-scale, and intelligent mining machinery, with significant growth in sales and market penetration [13][26] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 49 billion, 64 billion, and 81 billion from 2025 to 2027, with respective growth rates of 40%, 30%, and 26% [20] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 15, 12, and 9 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [20] Globalization and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to issue up to RMB 6 billion in H-share convertible bonds to support its globalization strategy, with 50% of the funds allocated to overseas production and technology development [14][36] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 74% for 2024, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [36]