内需跟踪及展望：从挖机到非挖 20250427 摘要 • 工程机械行业显现见底信号，向上修复趋势明确。设备租赁价格和混凝土 机械价格已触底，设备利用率逐步修复，供应商投资回报率见底回升，前 期高杠杆客户还款接近尾声，预示行业周期反转。 • 中国挖掘机保有量约 180 万台，临近淘汰设备占比约 15%。二手机出口 加速清理存量设备，提升老旧设备占比，增加更新换代需求。挖掘机终端 需求结构去地产化，小型和大型挖掘机销量占比超 80%，需求转向高标准 农田、水利和新农村建设。 • 2025 年 1-4 月挖掘机市场表现良好，销量增速保持增长，延续行业见底 修复态势。预计全年国内挖掘机销量有望实现至少 20%的增长，更高增速 取决于后续政策推进情况。 • 非挖掘设备市场中，混凝土机械一季度已转正，汽车起重机降幅收窄，预 计二季度末接近转正。后周期设备复苏通常比挖掘机晚半年到一年，关注 混凝土机械和起重机械转正后的变化，或将增加主机企业利润弹性。 • 国内工程机械板块业绩边际改善显著，收入和利润增速均提升，弹性修复 使其成为 2025 年表现突出的部分。出口贡献板块收入占比超 50%，利润 贡献接近 70%，新兴市场需 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy Industry [4][7] Core Views - SANY Heavy Industry's 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 78.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a net profit of 5.975 billion yuan, up 31.98% year-on-year [1][2][4] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the construction machinery industry, benefiting from both domestic recovery and strong international market performance [4] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 78.383 billion yuan, with Q4 revenue reaching 20.023 billion yuan, a 12.0% increase year-on-year. International market revenue was particularly strong, contributing 48.513 billion yuan, a 12.15% increase, accounting for 63.98% of total revenue [1] - **Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 5.975 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.98% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 7.8%, up 1.54 percentage points [2] - **Gross Margin**: The overall gross margin improved to 26.63%, with significant improvements in excavators and cranes. The gross margin for excavators was 31.82%, up 0.96 percentage points, and for cranes, it was 27.23%, up 4.23 percentage points [2] - **Cash Flow**: The net operating cash flow reached a historical high of 14.814 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 159.53% year-on-year, surpassing the previous peak in 2020 [3] Cost Management Summary - **Expense Ratios**: The company effectively controlled its expense ratios, with a sales expense ratio of 6.97%, down 1.43 percentage points, and a research and development expense ratio of 6.86%, down 1.06 percentage points [3] - **Inventory and Receivables Management**: The company demonstrated excellent operational capability, with inventory turnover days reduced to 125 days, down 9.3 days year-on-year, and accounts receivable turnover days reduced to 115 days, down 5.9 days [3] Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 9.485 billion yuan, 13.651 billion yuan, and 18.497 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 58.7%, 43.9%, and 35.5% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 17, 12, and 9 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating potential for further appreciation [4]