在制造业升级与高端化转型的浪潮下，机械行业正迎来技术迭代+需求扩容的双重机遇，成为支撑实体经济高质量发展的核心支柱。 当前国内企业加速突破高端机床、工业机器人等关键技术，行业呈现量价齐升态势，为资本市场提供了丰富投资标的。 中信工程机械行业营业收入、同比(亿元、%) 15 3,500 ·同比 ■营业收入 11.49 10 2,940.21 2,880.13 2,853.59 3,000 2,449.72 5 2,500 3.25 0 -0.93 2,000 -5 1,500 -10 1,000 広】 服务 倍容 -15 500 -20 -21.49 0 -25 2025Q1-Q3 2022A 2023A 2024A 数据支持:勾股大数据、Wind、中原证券研究所 了解更多图文平货,请下载 G 哈隆汇 "格隆汇App" 根据统计，2025年1—10月，共销售挖掘机192,135台，同比增长17%，各类装载机104,412台，同比增长15.8%。2025年9月当月销售各类汽车起重机1561 台，同比增长21.9%，2025年1—9月共销售叉车1106406台，同比增长14%. 行业周期层面，2024年起挖掘机、装 ...

Group 1 - The mechanical industry is experiencing dual opportunities from technological iteration and demand expansion, becoming a core pillar for high-quality development of the real economy [2] - Domestic companies are accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies such as high-end machine tools and industrial robots, leading to a simultaneous increase in volume and price, providing rich investment targets for the capital market [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-level technological self-reliance and the autonomy of the industrial chain, indicating strong policy support for the basic components industry over the next five years, significantly accelerating the process of domestic substitution [3] Group 2 - The engineering machinery sector has significant cyclical attributes, with core demand drivers being the replacement of existing equipment and export expansion, especially as the previous investment cycle from 2016-2021 will lead to a new equipment replacement cycle starting in 2025 [5] - The engineering machinery industry is expected to enter an upward cycle starting in 2024, with major products showing continuous positive growth, confirming the recovery trend in the industry [10] Group 3 - The shipbuilding industry is in a recovery cycle, with significant improvements in corporate profitability, as evidenced by a 17.57% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1191.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, and a substantial 88.5% increase in net profit [15] - China's shipbuilding industry maintains a leading global position, with a completion volume of 38.53 million deadweight tons in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 53.8% of the global market [12] Group 4 - The lithium battery equipment sector is witnessing a recovery, with a revenue increase of 8.75% year-on-year to 263.32 billion yuan in Q3 2025, and a significant turnaround in net profit [25] - The industry has completed a bottoming out and is entering a recovery phase, with leading companies experiencing nearly doubled net profit growth [28] Group 5 - The investment outlook for the mechanical industry indicates a new cycle of investment and growth, with engineering machinery, shipbuilding, and lithium battery equipment sectors all showing signs of recovery and demand improvement [30]

Key Points - The mechanical sector has seen a significant increase of 30.12% as of November 20, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.11 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 sectors [5][14]. - The lithium battery equipment, basic components, and semiconductor equipment sub-sectors have shown strong growth, with increases of 103.2%, 58.93%, and 48.05% respectively [5][14]. - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the mechanical industry, highlighting a new investment cycle and growth opportunities [5][6]. Mechanical Sector Performance - As of November 20, 2025, the mechanical sector's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 36.1, placing it in the 70.5 percentile of its 10-year historical range, indicating a higher valuation compared to historical averages [19][20]. - Among 632 listed companies in the mechanical sector, 549 have seen stock price increases in 2025, with a median increase of 30.23% [21][24]. New Recovery Cycle: Traditional Machinery Upgrading - The engineering machinery sector is entering a new equipment renewal cycle starting in 2025, driven by the aging of existing equipment and export expansion [25][28]. - Major products in the engineering machinery sector, such as excavators and loaders, have shown positive sales growth, with excavator sales reaching 192,135 units in the first ten months of 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase [28][29]. - The internationalization of engineering machinery is accelerating, with exports becoming a significant growth driver, as evidenced by excavator exports accounting for 53.21% of total sales in October 2025 [40][43]. New Technology Growth: Emerging Industries - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing a recovery, with mass production expected to drive significant market expansion [7][20]. - The AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) equipment sector is poised for rapid growth, benefiting from the fast development of the artificial intelligence industry [9][27]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is witnessing a rebound, with leading companies like Xian Dao Intelligent expected to benefit from the growing demand for solid-state battery equipment [9][35]. Investment Ratings and Key Targets - The report recommends key companies in the engineering machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG, as primary investment targets due to their strong performance and growth potential [5][54]. - The focus on core components such as pumps, valves, and hydraulic cylinders is also emphasized as part of the investment strategy [54].

据中国工程机械工业协会对平地机主要制造企业统计，2025年10月当月销售各类平地机634台，同比增 长4.11%，其中国内销量102台，同比增长22.9%;出口量532台，同比增长1.14%。 2025年1—10月，共销售平地机6918台，同比增长6.48%;其中国内销量1224台，同比增长29.9%;出口 5694台，同比增长2.5%。 汽车起重机 据中国工程机械工业协会对汽车起重机主要制造企业统计，2025年10月当月销售各类汽车起重机1422 台，同比增长15%，其中国内销量738台，同比增长41.7%;出口量684台，同比下降4.47%。 2025年1—10月，共销售汽车起重机16527台，同比下降2.78%;其中国内销量8993台，同比下降2.82%;出 口7534台，同比下降2.72%。 履带起重机 据中国工程机械工业协会对履带起重机主要制造企业统计，2025年10月当月销售各类履带起重机336 台，同比增长71.4%，其中国内销量97台，同比增长54%;出口量239台，同比增长79.7%。 据中国工程机械工业协会对塔式起重机主要制造企业统计，2025年10月当月销售各类塔式起重机329 台，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The machinery equipment industry continues to benefit from renewal demand and a recovery in overall domestic and international sales [1] - As of September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement but still in contraction territory, while the production PMI is at 51.9%, indicating expansion [2][6] - The report highlights a mixed performance in various machinery sales, with excavators and some other equipment showing growth, while tower cranes and aerial work platforms are experiencing declines [26][40][91] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Trends - In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI recorded 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, but still in contraction [2][6] - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month, while the core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months [11] - Fixed asset investment from January to September 2025 totaled 371,535 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up 3.3% and real estate investment down 14.0% [14] Sales Overview of Chinese Engineering Machinery - From January to September 2025, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [19] - Sales of various types of cranes showed mixed results, with tower cranes down 31.9% and truck-mounted cranes up 5.46% [27][47] - The report notes that sales of loaders reached 93,739 units, up 14.6% year-on-year, while sales of high-altitude work vehicles increased by 41.4% [53][92] Specific Equipment Performance - In September 2025, sales of various types of cranes showed growth in domestic sales, particularly for truck-mounted and crawler cranes, while tower cranes faced a decline [52] - The report indicates that domestic infrastructure investment remains resilient, benefiting related equipment sectors such as road machinery and high-altitude equipment [99] - Forklift sales reached 1,106,406 units from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% [101]

Core Viewpoint - The construction machinery industry is experiencing a decline in average working hours and operating rates, indicating potential challenges ahead for the sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Working Hours - In October 2025, the average working hours for major construction machinery products was 80.9 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.03% but a month-on-month increase of 3.62% [1]. - Specific working hours for various machinery include: excavators at 68.6 hours, loaders at 98 hours, and concrete pumps at 41.5 hours [1]. Group 2: Operating Rates - The operating rate for major construction machinery products in October 2025 was 55%, down by 10.1 percentage points year-on-year and a slight decrease of 0.16 percentage points month-on-month [2]. - Detailed operating rates for specific machinery include: excavators at 55.1%, loaders at 58.2%, and concrete mixers at 30.9% [2]. Group 3: Historical Data Review - The average working hours for major construction machinery products showed fluctuations throughout 2024 and 2025, with notable declines in several months [5][6]. - For instance, in September 2025, the average working hours were 78.1 hours, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.3% [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The construction machinery industry is anticipated to undergo a recovery phase, with discussions around the transition to "National IV" standards starting December 1 [7]. - There is a significant increase in exports, with a rise of over 70% despite a continuous decline in domestic sales for 13 months [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating a positive outlook for the business [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 1-3Q25, the company achieved revenue of 37.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.920 billion yuan, up 24.9% [1]. - In 3Q25 alone, revenue reached 12.301 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.9% year-on-year growth, while net profit rose by 35.8% to 1.156 billion yuan [1]. - The company's cash flow showed significant improvement, with net cash inflow from operating activities in 3Q25 amounting to 1.114 billion yuan, compared to 0.383 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The comprehensive gross margin for 1-3Q25 increased by 0.1 percentage points to 28.1%, while it slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 28.0% in 3Q25 [1]. - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased by 0.3 percentage points, 1.8 percentage points, and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, in 3Q25 [1]. - The net profit margin for 3Q25 increased by 0.8 percentage points to 9.4%, and for 1-3Q25, it rose by 1.4 percentage points to 10.6% [1]. Industry Trends - The company continues to benefit from the recovery in domestic non-excavator demand, with domestic excavator sales increasing by 21.5% year-on-year in 1-3Q25 and 18.0% in 3Q25 [2]. - The sales of automotive cranes also saw a significant year-on-year increase of 24.4% in 3Q25 [2]. - The company plans to issue up to 6 billion yuan in H-share convertible bonds, with 50% of the funds allocated for overseas business development and 50% for robotics project R&D [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.58 yuan and 0.73 yuan, respectively [3]. - The current A-shares are valued at 14.4x and 11.4x P/E for 2025 and 2026, while H-shares are at 12.3x and 9.6x P/E [3]. - Target prices for A-shares and H-shares have been raised by 17.5% and 31.9% to 11.0 yuan and 10.0 HKD, respectively, indicating potential upside of 31.3% and 28.5% [3].

Industry Overview - The construction machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with excavator sales maintaining a positive trend and both domestic and international market sales showing rapid year-on-year growth [1] - Non-excavator categories such as truck cranes, crawler cranes, truck-mounted cranes, and pavers are also witnessing significant sales increases [1] - Factors such as favorable downstream projects like hydropower and urban renewal are expected to continue driving demand for construction machinery [1] - The reduction of tariff disturbances in major global regions is enhancing the cost-performance advantage of domestic equipment [1] - The industry is anticipated to maintain a recovery trend due to large-scale equipment renewal policies [1] Export and Production Data - In September 2025, China's construction machinery export value reached $5.271 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, while import value was $234 million, up 18.5%, leading to a significant trade surplus [1] - The production of industrial robots increased by 28.3% year-on-year, driven by policies promoting equipment renewal and loan subsidies [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of high-end machine tools, which is expected to accelerate domestic advancements in this area [1] Company Performance - Zoomlion reported revenue of 37.156 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.06%, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 24.89% to 3.92 billion yuan [1] - XCMG achieved revenue of 78.157 billion yuan, up 11.61%, and net profit of 5.977 billion yuan, an increase of 11.67% [2] - Hengli Hydraulic's revenue for the same period was 7.790 billion yuan, a 12.31% increase, with net profit rising by 16.49% to 2.087 billion yuan [2] - Hengli Hydraulic's Q3 revenue grew by 24.53% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 30.60% [2] - The cash flow from operating activities for both Zoomlion and XCMG showed significant improvements, with increases of 137.3% and 178.47%, respectively [1][2] Market Indicators - The tower crane rental industry’s utilization rate was reported at 57.3% in September 2025, with a rental price index of 497.31 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase [2] - The construction machinery ETF (560280) saw a strong increase of 2.54% as of November 6, 2025, with significant growth in both scale and share volume over the past three months [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF accounted for 69.81% of the total, with notable performances from Weichai Power and Hengli Hydraulic [3]

Core Insights - The China Engineering Machinery Industry Association reported a decline in the operating rates of major construction machinery products for October 2025, with an average operating rate of 55%, down 10.1 percentage points year-on-year and 0.16 percentage points month-on-month [1] Summary by Category Operating Rates - Excavators: 55.1% - Loaders: 58.2% - Truck Cranes: 69.7% - Crawler Cranes: 56.9% - Tower Cranes: 39.9% - Rollers: 42.4% - Pavers: 57% - Rotary Drilling Rigs: 40.1% - Non-Road Mining Dump Trucks: 45.9% - Concrete Pump Trucks: 36.1% - Concrete Mixers: 30.9% - Forklifts: 58.5% [1] Average Working Hours - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in October 2025 was 80.9 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.03% but a month-on-month increase of 3.62% [1] - Excavators: 68.6 hours - Loaders: 98 hours - Truck Cranes: 103 hours - Crawler Cranes: 91.4 hours - Tower Cranes: 49.9 hours - Rollers: 31.9 hours - Pavers: 45.8 hours - Rotary Drilling Rigs: 65.9 hours - Non-Road Mining Dump Trucks: 161 hours - Concrete Pump Trucks: 41.5 hours - Concrete Mixers: 65.9 hours - Forklifts: 106 hours [1]

Summary of the Engineering Machinery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry experienced accelerated growth in Q3 2025, with both main engine manufacturers and component suppliers showing increases in revenue and profit, indicating a turning point in industry performance [1][2] - Non-excavator machinery has returned to positive growth, outpacing excavators, primarily due to a low base from the previous year and the spillover effect from medium and large excavators [1][2] Key Company Performances - SANY Heavy Industry reported steady revenue growth of approximately 10% in Q3 2025, while XCMG and Zoomlion achieved growth rates of over 20% and around 15%, respectively, driven by non-excavator product contributions [4] - SANY demonstrated the fastest profit growth in the industry, with significant improvements in expense control, accounts receivable, and inventory turnover rates [4] - XCMG's net cash flow from operating activities doubled in the first three quarters, while Zoomlion's increased by more than 100% [4] Overseas Market Growth - All major companies maintained strong growth in overseas markets in Q3 2025, with SANY's overseas business growing by about 10%, XCMG close to 20%, and Zoomlion reaching 30% [5] - The high-end markets in Europe and North America showed significant recovery, with SANY's growth in Africa exceeding 50% and over 30% in South America [5] Globalization Strategies - Main engine manufacturers are actively pursuing globalization, with SANY raising over 12 billion RMB through Hong Kong stock offerings for overseas production base construction and channel development [6] - XCMG and Zoomlion are also focusing on international expansion, with overseas revenue proportions reaching approximately 60% for SANY and Zoomlion, and around 50% for XCMG, with these regions generally offering higher profitability than domestic markets [7] Domestic Market Trends - The domestic excavator market has shown early signs of recovery, with significant increases in sales of non-excavator machinery such as truck cranes and concrete machinery, with truck crane sales in September up over 40% year-on-year [9] - The industry is entering a phase of resonance between domestic demand and supply, driven by large infrastructure projects and special local government bonds, which are expected to boost engineering machinery demand [12][13] Future Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is anticipated to experience a dual resonance phase, with domestic and international markets expected to grow, particularly with ongoing large-scale infrastructure projects and a projected 15%-20% compound growth rate in overseas exports [12][13] - The sector is currently at a relatively low valuation compared to other machinery sectors, suggesting potential for rapid growth and valuation recovery in the coming years [15] Product Structure Differences - SANY focuses on excavators, concrete equipment, and cranes, with excavators being the largest segment; XCMG specializes in cranes, holding over 30% market share, while Zoomlion emphasizes lifting machinery and concrete equipment [11] - These structural differences impact revenue performance, but all leading companies exhibit strong competitive capabilities [11] Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to focus on the opportunities presented by different stages of the market cycle, as companies may experience varying degrees of performance and stock price increases [19]