[Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·工程机械 柳工（000528） 2025 半年度业绩预告点评：归母净利润同比 +20%~30%超市场预期，看好公司全年业绩 高增 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 27,519 | 30,063 | 35,012 | 39,165 | 45,010 | | 同比（%） | 3.93 | 9.24 | 16.46 | 11.86 | 14.92 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 867.81 | 1,327.04 | 2,071.69 | 2,893.29 | 3,794.95 | | 同比（%） | 44.80 | 52.92 | 56.11 | 39.66 | 31.16 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.43 | 0.66 | 1.03 | 1.43 | 1.88 | | P/E（现价&最新摊 ...

2、预计的经营业绩：同向上升 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日 国内市场，随着稳经济政策持续发力，叠加产品换新需求，新能源升级提速，土方机械行业加速回暖， 公司主导产品装载机、挖掘机及路面机械等均实现了较快增长；国际市场行业总体处于需求筑底期。面 对复杂多变的营商环境和激烈的市场竞争，公司直面挑战，持续抓好"全面解决方案、全面智能化、全 面国际化"的"三全"战略高质量落地，开展"三全"子战略升级等一系列创新性实践，公司国际国内业务 收入及利润均实现了稳定增长。 四、其他相关说明 1、本次业绩预告是公司财务部门初步测算的结果，未经会计师事务所审计，与公司2025年半年度报告 中披露的最终数据可能存在差异，具体财务数据将在《公司2025年半年度报告》中详细披露； 2、本公司指定的信息披露媒体为《中国证券报》及巨潮资讯网(www.cninfo.com.cn)，公司所有信息均 以在前述指定媒体披露的信息为准，敬请广大投资者注 ...

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to be between 118,023.71 million yuan and 127,859.02 million yuan, representing a growth of 20% to 30% compared to the previous year, which was 98,353.09 million yuan [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 109,003.44 million yuan and 118,838.75 million yuan, with a growth of 21% to 32% compared to the previous year's 90,260.84 million yuan [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 0.5845 yuan/share and 0.6332 yuan/share, compared to 0.5041 yuan/share in the previous year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The domestic market is experiencing a recovery due to ongoing economic stabilization policies, increased demand for product upgrades, and accelerated transition to new energy, leading to significant growth in the company's main products such as loaders, excavators, and road machinery [1] - The international market is currently in a demand bottoming phase, but the company is addressing challenges through its "Three Full" strategy, which focuses on comprehensive solutions, full automation, and full internationalization, resulting in stable growth in both domestic and international business revenues and profits [1]

近几年三一重工的股价也大幅波动，在2021年达到48.51元/股的高峰后，呈震荡下跌走势，今天下午收盘为19.07元/ 股，市值超1616亿元。如今工程机械市场情况如何？不妨通过三一重工来一探究竟。 今年港股IPO尤为火爆，2025年上半年港交所新受理的IPO申请达到168家，远超去年全年。同时赴港上市的企业中不 乏宁德时代、恒瑞医药、海天味业等行业龙头，最近挖掘机龙头三一重工的港股IPO也有新进展。 格隆汇获悉，近日，三一重工股份有限公司（简称"三一重工"）境外发行上市备案有新进展。监管要求公司补充说明 对控股股东认定结果不一致的原因及认定标准，并就控股股东的认定情况出具明确结论性意见；公司部分募集资金拟 用于扩大海外制造能力，说明具体项目情况及项目所在的国别或地区等。 三一重工（600031）曾于今年5月递表港交所，中信证券为其独家保荐人。作为国内最大的工程机械企业，2024年其 收入超783亿元。但在行业周期等影响下，近几年三一重工的收入存在波动，且公司海外营收占比较大，面临关税、 贸易保护政策等风险。 1 三一重工冲击"A+H"上市，近三年累计派息超70亿 三一重工总部位于北京市昌平区，其历史可追溯至 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Sany Heavy Industry, a leading Chinese construction machinery giant, is making its third attempt to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having previously failed in 2010 and 2014 [1] - The company plans to raise approximately $1.5 billion (about 10.9 billion RMB) through this listing, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor and Ernst & Young as the reporting accountant [1] - Sany Heavy Industry is the largest construction machinery company in China and the third largest globally, with a market capitalization of 152.719 billion RMB [1][2] Group 2: Internationalization Strategy - The core objective of Sany's Hong Kong listing is to enhance its internationalization efforts, with overseas revenue accounting for 62.3% of total revenue in 2024, contributing $6.78 billion to core business revenue [2] - The company has established manufacturing bases in Germany, Indonesia, India, and the United States, with the Indonesian facility being the first overseas smart factory in the Chinese construction machinery sector [2][3] Group 3: Financial Performance - Sany's revenue has shown a downward trend from 808.39 billion RMB in 2022 to 740.19 billion RMB in 2023, with a slight recovery to 783.83 billion RMB in 2024 [5] - Despite the revenue decline, the company maintained strong profitability, with net profits of 44.22 billion RMB, 46.06 billion RMB, and 60.93 billion RMB over the same period [5] - In Q1 2025, Sany reported a net profit of 2.47 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 56.4%, indicating improved financial health [5] Group 4: Market Context - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is gaining momentum, with nearly 30 engineering machinery stocks and several companies from various sectors planning to go public [7][8] - The Hong Kong market has seen improved liquidity and performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both rising over 15% year-to-date [8]

Core Viewpoint - Sany Heavy Industry, known as the "dividend king" in A-shares, is set to debut on the Hong Kong stock market, sparking excitement in the IPO community regarding potential investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Sany Heavy Industry was established in 1989 and has evolved from a welding materials factory into a leading global engineering machinery enterprise, focusing on the R&D, manufacturing, sales, and service of a full range of construction machinery products [2] Group 2: Core Advantages - Brand Influence: Sany Heavy Industry is the third largest globally and the largest in China in the engineering machinery sector, consistently ranking first in global sales for excavators and concrete machinery [3] - New Energy Transition and Technological Innovation: The company has made significant strides in the new energy sector, with its electric mixer trucks and electric dump trucks holding the largest market share in China as of 2024 [4] - Global Strategic Layout: Sany's products are available in over 150 countries and regions, and its international brand influence is expected to grow with the Hong Kong listing, enhancing its global market expansion efforts [5] Group 3: Performance Growth Potential - By 2025, Sany Heavy Industry is projected to see a strong rebound in performance, with overseas revenue accounting for 62.3% of total revenue in 2024, and the gross profit margin for overseas main business at 31.57%, surpassing the domestic margin of 23.03% [7] Group 4: Industry Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Sany Heavy Industry ranks as the third largest globally and the largest in China by cumulative revenue from core engineering machinery from 2020 to 2024, holding the top position in excavators and concrete machinery [8] Group 5: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The market response to Sany Heavy Industry's listing plan on the Hong Kong stock market has been positive, with expectations that its valuation will be reasonably reflected in the market despite existing valuation differences between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 78.383 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.975 billion yuan, up 31.98% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company's international revenue accounted for over 60% of total revenue, with significant growth in overseas markets, achieving 48.513 billion yuan, a 12.15% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 26.63%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating cash flow saw a substantial increase of 159.53% to 14.814 billion yuan [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 78.383 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.90%. Forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 89.159 billion yuan, 101.175 billion yuan, and 113.566 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.75%, 13.48%, and 12.25% respectively [10][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 5.975 billion yuan, with projected profits of 8.579 billion yuan, 10.645 billion yuan, and 13.037 billion yuan for the following years, reflecting growth rates of 43.57%, 24.08%, and 22.47% [10][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.08 in 2024 to 12.41 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [10][11].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 78.383 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.975 billion yuan, up 31.98% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 5.334 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.55% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue growth was driven by excavators and road machinery, with international revenue exceeding 60% of total revenue [2] - By product, revenue from concrete machinery, excavators, cranes, pile machinery, road machinery, and others was 14.368 billion, 30.374 billion, 13.115 billion, 2.076 billion, 3.001 billion, and 12.897 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.18%, 9.91%, 0.89%, -0.44%, 20.75%, and 17.23% [2] - Domestic revenue was 27.318 billion yuan, down 3.35% year-on-year, while international revenue was 48.513 billion yuan, up 12.15% year-on-year [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved to 26.63%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic gross margin at 21.12% and international gross margin at 29.72% [2] - The total expense ratio increased by 0.14 percentage points to 17.92%, with sales expense ratio rising by 0.08 percentage points to 6.97%, management expense ratio increasing by 0.24 percentage points to 3.82%, R&D expense ratio decreasing by 1.06 percentage points to 6.86%, and financial expense ratio increasing by 0.88 percentage points to 0.26% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company achieved positive results from its "globalization, digitalization, and low-carbon" strategy, with international market growth leading to overseas main business revenue of 48.513 billion yuan, up 12.15% [3] - The second phase of the Indonesian lighthouse factory was completed, enhancing smart manufacturing capabilities through digital twin and process simulation systems [3] - Revenue from new energy products reached 4.025 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a leading market position [3] Cash Flow and Quality - Operating cash flow significantly improved, with net cash flow from operating activities at 14.814 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.53%, reflecting high-quality development and strong risk control [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 89.159 billion, 101.175 billion, and 113.566 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.75%, 13.48%, and 12.25% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8.579 billion, 10.645 billion, and 13.037 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 43.57%, 24.08%, and 22.47% respectively [4] - The corresponding PE valuations for 2025-2027 are 18.86, 15.20, and 12.41, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

重工2024年 年度业绩 SANY HEAVY INDUSTRY'S 2024 ANNUAL PERFORMANCE 国 营业收入 OPERATING REVENUE 2024年度778 花元 ナ6.22% 盟 | 挖掘机械 304亿元 ↑9.91% 器|混凝土机械 144亿元 ↓6.18% 粤国|起重机械 131亿元 ↑0.89% 偿】 | 桩工机械 21亿元 ↓0.44% 题 | 其他产品 器 路面机械 30亿元 ↑20.75% 129亿元 ↑17.23% | 2024年各产品营业收入分布 其他产品 混凝土机械 路面机械 199 桩工机械 17% 起重机械 40% 挖掘机械 | 2020年-2024年营业收入情况 (单位:亿元) 31.29% 6.82% 6.22% -8.51% -24.58% 1,061 993 800 778 732 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 营业收入 ■ 营业收入增速 l 27 申利润 NET PROFIT | 归母净利润(率)年度情况 (单位:亿元) 15.5% 11.2% 7.7% 154 6.2% 5.4% 120 60 45 43 2020 ...

重工2024年 年度业绩 SANY HEAVY INDUSTRY'S 2024 ANNUAL PERFORMANCE 国 营业收入 OPERATING REVENUE 2024年度778 花元 ナ6.22% 盟 | 挖掘机械 304亿元 ↑9.91% 级鸟|混凝土机械 144亿元 ↓6.18% 嚎୍ତ୍ର | 起重机械 131亿元 ↑0.89% es | 桩工机械 21亿元 ↓0.44% 器 | 路面机械 ૂર | 其他产品 30亿元 ↑20.75% 129亿元 ↑17.23% | 2024年各产品营业收入分布 其他产品 混凝土机械 路面机械 199 桩工机械 17% 起重机械 40% 挖掘机械 | 2020年-2024年营业收入情况 (单位:亿元) 31.29% 6.82% 6.22% -8.51% -24.58% 1,061 993 800 778 732 2020年 2023年 2024年 2021年 2022年 营业收入 营业收入增速 47 十六| 江 NET PROFIT 2024年度 59.75 花元 ナ31.98％ | 归母净利润(率)年度情况 (单位:亿元) 60 45 43 2020年 20 ...