一面大幅加征关税，一面又极力推动降息，这种策略存在难以自圆其说的矛盾。关税推高通胀，而 降息却需要低通胀环境，如果在高通胀环境下强行推动降息，二者叠加可能触发"工资—物价螺旋上 升"，引起更严重的通胀问题。这也成为美联储坚持不降息的重要理由之一。 美联储主席鲍威尔面对特朗普政府施压，迟迟"按兵不动"。一方面，通胀仍是美联储决策的重要考 量之一。核心PCE物价指数在6月份同比上涨2.8%，高于预期的2.7%，为2月份以来最高水平，且8月份 新增关税的影响尚未完全传导至消费端。美联储据此认为对通胀仍不能掉以轻心。另一方面，美联储坚 称就业市场仍具韧性，缺乏紧急干预的证据，这削弱了降息必要性。此外，美联储也反复强调"独立 性"，认为若妥协于白宫，可能难以再取信于市场，会引发资本外逃，长期利率反而因通胀预期上升而 提高，抵消降息效果。 近期，双方博弈再度升级。美国劳工部8月1日公布的数据显示，7月份美国失业率环比上升，表现 逊于市场预期。同时，5月份和6月份非农业部门新增就业岗位数量较此前公布数据大幅下调，表明美国 就业市场明显降温。因不满美国劳工部发布的最新就业数据，美国总统特朗普日前让劳工部下属的劳工 统计局局长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts has escalated from policy disagreements to a broader struggle over economic governance, impacting global markets. Group 1: Government Pressures for Rate Cuts - The U.S. government is under significant pressure to push for rapid and substantial interest rate cuts due to three main factors: fiscal pressure, political cycle dynamics, and the need to counteract the effects of increased tariffs [1][2]. - The federal government's interest expenditure for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to be approximately $1.1 trillion, with the national debt exceeding $37 trillion as of August 10, indicating a growing fiscal burden that the government hopes to alleviate through lower interest rates [1]. - The urgency for rate cuts is heightened by the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, as the government seeks to stimulate the economy and improve public perception through short-term market gains [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve remains resistant to the government's pressures, citing the need for a low inflation environment to justify rate cuts, and expressing concerns that high inflation could lead to a wage-price spiral if cuts are implemented prematurely [2][4]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations, which reinforces the Fed's cautious approach to interest rate adjustments [2]. - The Fed emphasizes its independence and the importance of maintaining data integrity, suggesting that succumbing to political pressure could undermine market trust and lead to adverse long-term effects [2][4]. Group 3: Employment Data and Political Maneuvering - Recent employment data indicates a rise in the unemployment rate and a downward revision of job creation figures, prompting the U.S. government to attempt to influence labor statistics and reshape the Federal Reserve's decision-making body [3][4]. - The dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics head and the push for a new appointee who supports rate cuts reflect the government's strategy to manipulate data to create a rationale for lowering rates [3]. - The potential impact of these political maneuvers on the Federal Reserve's voting structure could influence upcoming decisions on interest rates, although the long-term consequences of undermining data credibility could be detrimental [3][4]. Group 4: Economic Implications and Future Outlook - The standoff between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve highlights deep-rooted issues in U.S. economic governance, with the government’s push for rate cuts driven by an unsustainable debt-driven growth model [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to lower rates if unemployment rises significantly or consumer spending weakens, while a rebound in inflation due to tariffs could lead to a more cautious approach [4]. - Regardless of the outcome, this ongoing conflict reveals significant fractures in the governance of the U.S. economy, indicating a complex interplay between short-term political objectives and long-term economic stability [5].