左侧库存反转模型

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行业模型形成共振,指向TMT+金融周期板块
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-08 08:23
- The report identifies three main industry models: the industry mainline model, the industry rotation model, and the left-side inventory reversal model [1][6][8] - The industry mainline model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify leading industries. The construction process involves calculating the price changes over 20, 40, and 60 trading days, normalizing these rankings, and averaging them to get the final RSI. If an industry shows an RSI greater than 90% by the end of April, it is likely to be a leading industry for the year [2][12][14] - The industry rotation model is based on a framework of prosperity, trend, and congestion. It suggests a balanced allocation with specific weights for different industries, such as 20% for banks, 17% for non-ferrous metals, and 15% for steel. The model has shown strong performance, with an annualized excess return of 14.1% and an IR of 1.54 [2][16][18] - The left-side inventory reversal model focuses on industries that are in a state of distress or have recently rebounded. It aims to capture the reversal in industries with low inventory pressure and high analyst expectations. The model has shown significant returns, with a 2023 absolute return of 13.4% and an excess return of 17.0% [27][28][29] - The industry mainline model's backtest results for 2024 showed that industries like coal, electric utilities, home appliances, banks, oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and automotive had significant returns when their RSI exceeded 90% [2][12][13] - The industry rotation model's backtest results showed an annualized return of 21.2%, an excess return of 14.1%, an IR of 1.54, and a maximum drawdown of -8.0%. The model's performance in 2023, 2024, and 2025 showed excess returns of 7.3%, 5.7%, and 4.1%, respectively [16][17][21] - The left-side inventory reversal model's backtest results showed an absolute return of 25.9% in 2024 and an excess return of 14.8%. In 2025, the model achieved an absolute return of 13.6% and an excess return of 3.5% [27][28][29] - The industry rotation model's ETF configuration showed an annualized excess return of 15.8% and an IR of 1.8. The model's performance in 2023, 2024, and 2025 showed excess returns of 6.0%, 5.3%, and 8.1%, respectively [21][22][26] - The industry prosperity stock selection model showed an annualized return of 25.8%, an excess return of 20.0%, an IR of 1.7, and a maximum drawdown of -15.4%. The model's performance in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 showed excess returns of 10.2%, 10.4%, 4.6%, and 4.7%, respectively [22][23][24] - The recommended industries for the left-side inventory reversal model include agricultural chemicals, general steel, building decoration, precious metals, optical and optoelectronics, special materials, components, and passenger cars [27][28][29]